1. Lizard Island: He continues to run well with a 2nd to Press Statement in the Guineas and then last start a tough run 2nd to Sacred Eye over the 2000m. Had a lot of runs this prep, it would be a huge effort as a 3YO to continue on and win this today. Has the ability on form… but certainly does love to run well and not win.
2. Shards: Much improved run last start when led and was just beaten by a better horse on the day in Jameka. Not convinced he is looking for this distance today and won’t get an easy time out front if goes there from the wide barrier either.
3. Kia Ora Koutou: Normally got back or midfield every run to date over in WA. Clearly looks a good type but the barrier 1 today is a concern. Expect them to try get at least midfield from the barrier and to try get off the barrier at the first opportunity.
4. Ayers Rock: Whipped home two back. Last start well beaten by better horses putting on a stronger tempo. On form has to find lengths to beat the very best here for mine.
5. Man of Choice: Very interesting runner today but the barrier is certainly a massive disadvantage to start with. Ran nicely 3rd to Vanbrugh last start and will be pushing forward.
6. Extra Choice: Well beaten at Caulfield and Flemington but really found the line with authority at Geelong last start as a perfect lead in. Disgusting barrier today though. Will need to risk getting caught 3-wide to get a position.
7. Tarzino: Very good horse. Huge win three back at Caulfield and has impressed both runs since. Last start was never winning at Moonee Valley with the pattern of the day and the horse savaged the line once again. Barrier should have him in a good enough spot, just needs to get going at the right time today to give him every chance. Will be suited by Flemington.
8. Get The Picture: Well supported today after two strong runs in city class group races. Will be closer to the back than most in the race, but barrier 5 does give Oliver some tactical advantage.
9. Etymology: Looks to be wanting the distance today and if you go re-watch the replay of last start, he got a ‘dream run’ but was never in clear running until the 200m.. so he was sat on for 1800 of the 200m and finished just 1L off the winner who is VERY good. Has the ability to sit just off the speed in an ideal spot today off the rail and will probably look the winner with 200m to go giving the favourites from the back something to chase.
10. Jadeer: Off the speed last start at Geelong in a gun spot and just not good enough well beaten by Extra Choice. Has to improve on that run but obviously has ability.
11. Palace Tycoon: Didn’t have to beat much last start at Seymour and didn’t do it with much authority. Has to find much more.
12. Scadden’s Run: Well beaten the last three starts over similar distances. One to take on.
13. Pay Up Bro: Too far back last start at Geelong. Was a big run. Two back run was also very good at course over 1800m behind Ayres Rock. Clearly has ability to be a chance.
14. Colonel Custer: Too far back last start at Geelong from a poor barrier. Gets the same draw today and Williams onboard. Have to improve.
15. Red Alto: Not going well enough on the last three runs. Take on.
16. Iron Boss: Well beaten the last two starts with no excuses. Have to find lengths of improvement to win this.
17. Bullish Stock: R-58 winner wow! No thanks.
Comments: Lizard Island, Kia Ora Koutou, Man of Choice, Tarzino, Get The Picture, Etymology and Pay Up Bro are the chances in this race for mine. If anything else wins, so be it. Tarzino is a freak, but Tarzino will also be giving those in front of him 2, 3, 4, 5 lengths from the 400m… is he good enough to run them down? He is out to $3.30 now and i can’t see him drifting beyond say $3.50… which is a backable price. The issue is I believe the price on Etymology from the barrier from on speed in a race where i have all the main chances giving Etymology lengths of advantage into the straight. At the price, I’ll take Etymology and saver (at worst) Tarzino.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 13
Strategy: Etymology on the Each-Way. Saver bet Tarzino.
