Flemington Race 7
Amovatio: Well up in the weights today after the very good win at course over 1400m. Step up to 1600m no issue with wins in the past at distance. Best seen on dryer ground the only concern with rain today.
Tried and Tired: Tough 2nd last start at Caulfield and if he doesn’t race flat today could be a speical betting wise up to 1600m on speed with little tempo in the race outside of Ventic.
Mr Utopia: Every chance last two runs but simply too far back. Up to 1600m should be fine and goes well at track obviously. Mapping will see out the back again.
Good Value: Ignore last start and rate on two previous runs which were great. Should get a forward enough spot with little issues from barrier i’d say with lack of speed in race. Jockey knows the horse.
Lord of Brazil: Very happy to take this bloke on after first two runs this prep. Well held here in this grade.
Venture On: Smashed them two runs back at Bendigo before a nice run 2nd last start at course. Any rain increases his chances today and it looks to be coming.
Lake Sententia: Shown nothing 3 runs to date. Looks one we can safely take on.
Coronation Shallan: Snuck home last start at Ballarat for a win over Freshwater Storm with a nice ride. Similar weight today and has to be considered a serious chance but will need to do a load of work from that barrier to get a position spot… best seen with a sit but doubt they get that today!
Sir Andrew: Promising type with strong late sectionals but been bet very low prices all three runs to date in Aus and failed to win. First time 1600m and tempo may just not be suiting unless they decide to ride further forward today. Could occur.
Tiny’s Legacy: Good surprise win at Sale three back. Not the worst run two back then just well beaten last start. Very flat run. Not sure i like him up to 1600m off those runs today. The wetter the better.
Search Squad: Continues to be backed and continues to disappoint. Hasn’t won for 9 races and has been single figures the past 6 runs! Consistent type but never ran at 1600m and 5 runs 0 wins at track a concern.
Ventic: Will be out the front running it along. Best recent runs have been on wetter tracks but enjoys any type. Not won since 2013 the concern even though placed the last 5 runs!
By The Grace: Disgusting the last two runs as short priced 2nd favourites in both races. Not sure how you could be on today with only win over Rivers Lane in Adelaide this prep.
Metaphorical: Good win two back at MV over Lord Durante but failed hard last start. Prefer dryer but won’t get it.
Relentless: Not the worst runs last couple but does look only fairly rated it has to be said here. Others preferred but could sneak a place if improved and gets a gem of a ride.
Comments: Most open race of the day so far and no surprise we are wide wide wide in the Quaddie. Good Value gets the nod, just, on the E/W to bounce back today from on speed.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 12
Strategy: Good Value E/W
