1. Lucky Hussler: Great barrier again today. Last start run on a Soft track was 1L 6th to Dissident up at Randwick. Was protested against and upheld which dropped him to 6th. Very strong form line that run. Huge win two back at Caulfield smashing them, but last start at Moonee Valley was a little flat for mine not finishing off when it counted. They did run almost a second slower on that day though and Turn Me Loose got the monorail run that day out front. Bow Creek was the better run in the race compared with the Hussler.
2. Arod: Doesn’t want a bar of the wet track. Was a huge chance until 33M of rain came yesterday and I just can’t be near him now.
3. Turn Me Loose: Loves it dry and loves it wet with 1 win from one start on a soft track. Bred to get the soft no issues also. Good win two back at Seymour and backed up that win solidly last start at Moonee Valley. 3 starts 3 wins at this distance. Will be on speed and hard to catch if there is any leader bias.
4. Bow Creek: Awkward barrier but should be fine if he jumps well today instead of missing the start like last start! 1L off Kingfisher over 2000m in his last run on Soft is great form considering how well Kingfisher was going at that stage. Obviously one of the top chances on that last start run at Moonee Valley. 1.5kg better off against Turn Me Loose. 2kg better off against Lucky Hussler.
5. Disposition: Proven on Soft track now but did get the monorail run at course over 1400m. Get the feeling he is going well but just not good enough to consider a winning hope here.
6. Magic Artist: Flying home first up at Flemington he just missed when he couldn’t jump over Gailo Chop on the monorail to get the win. How much of the run was his pure ability and the fact he was also on the Monorail? Back to 1600m the concern for mine… but he does go down to 54kg which is hard to hate on against these today. Was on the firmer stuff… still an issue if he handles the real wet track today.
7. Ecuador: Handles a wet track, no doubt. Did a lot wrong over racing last start at Flemington. Two back run form ran 2.3L off Winx, but out of that race the 3rd, 4th and 5th horses have all failed heavily since.
9. Moriarty: Old mate doesn’t like it wet. No chance.
10. Amovatio: Well beaten last start in similar grade. He is a good horse, but is he a Group 1 Emirates Stakes winner? He has a turn of foot but not the same as the best in this for mine. Also feel the soft doesn’t suit. Send him to WA and he will go close.
11. Politeness: Old mate Politeness. She finds her best on the wet tracks and this is hers to win today. Goes well at course goes well at distance and goes well in the wet. Checks all the boxes.
12. Sons of John: He is going better than his form suggests, but he has to prove that he is good enough to beat all these. Handles the wet.
13. May’s Dream: Did a lot of work last start behind Politeness. Similar weight today. I struggle to see the turnaround on Politeness here from the barrier.
14. Rock Sturdy: Not good enough a horse especially on the wet tracks to beat all these.
15. Coronation Shallan: Nice enough win last start at Moonee Valley from out the front. Won’t get that run today. Back to soft tracks where she isn’t at her best for mine on ratings. Not the one for me.
16. He or She: Unproven on soft tracks. His best really isn’t good enough on my ratings.
Comments: Two of the highest quality races of the Spring in a row, we are certainly spoiled compared to the rubbish we had to put up with on Thursday. This race is simple for me. Bow Creek is the best weighted horse today. Not only that, the horse should be ridden more forward as long as he doesn’t miss the start again. The main threat on my ratings is Politeness, but even then, Bow Creek is really proven at this level while Politness isn’t. All roads lead to Bow Creek.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11, 12
Strategy: Bow Creek E/W
