Trust in a Gust: One run last prep over 1200m for a 0.1L defeat to Red Bomber who proved to be a very handy type. Only one run at track in the past for a 2nd over 1600m… never been down the straight a huge concern giving the field 6kg today… but with 10 wins from 18 starts the price on offer today looks quite okay especially having only missed a place twice in 18 starts.
Le Bonsir: Goes okay enough first up… 7 starts at track for 0 wins but 5 places… always seems to find a few too good and this is a hard task first up when this isn’t his best track clearly.
Shiraz: Going from strength to strength with two wins in a row to kick off this prep both on heavy… looks a crazy price today considering the drop back to dryer tracks against this lot first time down the straight?
Decircles: Old mate loves to run a good race when not expected at Flemington and has won in past down the straight. Last two starts been off the speed and never a chance really. Expect him to be on speed with 54kg and giving a sight!
Pago Rock: Really liked his run last start when 2nd to Charmed Harmony at course over 1400m. This will have sharpened him up for a strong 1200m today with just 54kg, he looks well in when you consider the runs behind Lumosty middle of the prep.
Play Master: Continues to go from strength to strength this prep and last start sat off them and hit the line hard to win a fastly run 1200m race. Best seen when speed on, not so sure it will be today though.
Lonrockstar: Weighted nicely today… three runs at course and similar distance and never far off with a win in between. Will be having last shot at them.
Nadeem Lass: Doesn’t win out of turn. Goes well down the straight but seems to find one too good always. Can’t see the win today at weights on last two runs.
Smackdown: Two wins from two starts last prep in easier grade than this. Goes well down the straight, don’t forget it… ran 1.8L 5th to Tiger Tees in Group 3 two preps back… 3 wins 2 places from 5 first up runs… has the ratings to measure up.
Living On a Prayer: Half-way there! Two runs to date and only fair at best. Had to show a lot more last start to suggest a win here.
Zebrinz: Finished last prep with 3 wins in a row over much further. Never won first up, at course or at distance.
Audino: Goes well enough at track… best runs clearly seem later into preps but first up wasn’t terrible…
Comments: Start of by saying the price being bet for Shiraz is just stupid. Yes, it can win, yes there is no chance i’ll be taking that price and i’ll be laying it on Betfair. This is a horse that has proved itself at BM-75 to BM-90 grade. Today first time ever down the straight faces a Group 1 winner in Trust in a Gust, last start Listed winner at course and distance Play Master… Decircles last win course and distance Group 3, Pago Rock last win 1100m Caulfield Open grade, Le Bonsir last win Listed 1200m Moonee Valley… Smackdown last win Open 1200m.. Lonrockstar last win 1100m Flemington Open class. Now you know why we are laughing at the Shiraz price, let’s talk about who is winning it. Trust in a Gust can’t be ignored but giving the whole field 6kg you have to feel this is a massive test first up and first time ever down the straight… will be allowed to control tempo i feel out front which could play a big part in how he finishes off the race. Le Bonsir at the weights measures up as a key threat if he finds his best again today. Pago Rock is going well enough and the step back to 1200m today could just do the trick. Smackdown has the ability on last two preps to make the step up today at the weights while Lonrockstar has been consistent running down the straight all prep.. finally if the pace is on, Play Master can win here.
Confidence (85% on the lay of Shiraz, 70 on Trust in a Gust to win)
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: LAY Shiraz to win. Trust in a Gust is the top pick for those looking to BACK a horse.
