2. Happy Trails: Ignore the fact he even went around in the Cox Plate. Hard to look past a close 2nd to Criterion beating home Mongolian Khan two runs back at Caulfield… loves Flemington… if the rain does come though that is a HUGE negative for the horse.
3. Extra Zero: Very good run two back at Flemington when 5th in Group 1 company from out the back. Looks well suited today and last start was a simple forgive run not handling the track at Cranbourne. WFA-G1 0.1L 2nd last prep at course and distance… good enough. If the track is worse than Good 4 you have to lower the horses chances with 0 wins from 13 starts on soft.
4. Pornichet: Flattered by the 4th placing in the Cox Plate considering he was 9 lengths off them ridden on the best part of the track. Gone backwards his last two starts from the run three back… has the ability over this distance.. but i’m not convinced.
5. Contributer: Certainly not in the same form as last prep where he won a WFA-G2 followed by tow WFA-G1 races. His very best form clearly measures up and wins this race today, but he has to improve from what he showed last start and even two back.
6. Weary: Going out the back today after doing too much last start at Flemington on speed. Not sure I could have him here.
7. Gailo Chop: The more rain comes the better for this talented runner. Did a lot wrong last start in the Cox Plate over racing. Will appreciate a slower tempo today and will be very fit after that run. Positive barrier a key to get a more forward run with a lack of forward runners outside of Ecuador.
8. Index Linked: Is he really good enough? First time in WFA-G1. I have to take him on after his first two runs this prep.. can place but can’t see him winning.
10. Ecuador: 2.3L off Winx last on speed in the Epsom. Will control the tempo today if Gailo Chop doesn’t. Obviously has to be respected on his last three runs even at the weights today.
11. Magic Artist: Andreas Wohler import, WFA-G1 2nd over in Italy on the record and WFA-G3 win. 2nd in WFA-G2 in Germany and 5th in WFA-G1 last start before spell. Goes well first up and this is his best distance. Nice barrier. Respect.
12. Flamingo Star: The Waller stable have a massive opinion of this WFA-G3 French & German winner. In the past his best has been seen over the 1600m and while they believe he can win today, I get the feeling we will see his best in a weeks time in the Emirates.
13. Stratum Star: Didn’t beat much last start over the 2000m at Caulfield in Group 3 company. Rates well on previous two runs but in this class today there are certainly questions hanging over his head, especially with Williams onboard from a wide barrier. False favourite.
14. Rising Romance: Just ignore the fact she went around in the Caulfield Cup. Back to 2000m today looks ideal. WFA-G1 form this prep is hard to argue with and is ideally suited by this distance.
15. Set Square: Did too much on speed with the low weight last start in the Caulfield Cup given an absolute gut buster. I don’t feel she is good enough on previous form for me to consider here today off the gut buster.
Comments: At least eight chances in this race so we had to risk a few in the Quaddie. Think we have it nailed either way. If betting here I’d want to be backing three horses to win in Extra Zero, Gailo Chop and Rising Romance.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 7, 13, 14
Strategy: 1.5 units on Gailo Chop. 1 unit on Extra Zero and 1 unit on Rising Romance.
