Flemington Race 6
Kansas Sunflower: Back in class today and back up to 1600m looks the right move. The push back to 1200m last start never looked a winning one from 2000m but they backed her. Did run 2nd over 1800m this prep and 1st over 1600m in similar or harder company. Weighted well enough in respect to her againity. Maps quite well today.
Lucy’s Look: Massive step up in class today at the weights. Best runs on wetter tracks this prep… but has dry ability.
Kaizaen: Blinkers first time a very good improvement for this filly who showed large ability but could never get that break through last prep in the top class. 2nd up run 2nd to Azeema was very good and back to scene of crime up to 1600m looks ideal.
Violent Snow: Giving Kaizaen 2kg today at the handicap for a 0.5l defeat two runs back at course over 1400m. Up to 1600m ideal for this horse today… was beaten by Kansas sunflower four back also.
Penny to Sell: Out the back and did a bit wrong last start, but was always going to be a tough ask to measure up and progress. Hard to see the required improvement today either.
Explosive One: Ran well from out front last start with a low weight, but didn’t finish the race off well enough to suggest a win here today.
She Can Shazam: Best run this prep was two back on a soft track at MV when just missed. Last start did alot wrong in easier grade. Weighted only fairly today and has to improve to be a chance i’d suggest.
Sebring Warrior: Another that ran well two back in the East Afrika race but last start found nothing on a dryer track at Flemington. Forgive run?
Champagne Cocktail: Failed two back in the Azeema race then won well at Pakenham in maiden class by 5 lengths. Much much harder today obviously.
Manageress: Luckless two back in the Azeema form race but then last start close 3rd behind Dodging Bullets from dead last in the race. Poor barrier again today means out the back again which is the issue. Has the ability.
Comic Miss: Maiden only win who didn’t run the poorest race you will ever see last start at Pakenham going close enough. Need to find stacks of improvement today to even place though.
Unassailed: Same Pakenham race as Comic Miss last start but beat her home just. Did run okay over 1200m two back… so strange to see step up to 1600m.
Darcy’s Law: Got her maiden then failed to find any more last start in harder company. Struggle to suggest.
Bonnie Belle: Ran okay enough two back in Azeema race but last start told the tail of the horse, needs more time.
Vertical Hold: Did alot wrong winning first up. Not the worst run last start doing the same things wrong. If jumps well today not doing anything wrong has to be a top chance.
Comments: Kansas Sunflower and Kaizaen the two standouts here and i’d feel more comfortable backing both rather than either of them on the E/W.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6, 17
Strategy: Kansas Sunflower 1 unit to win. Kaizaen 0.6 units to win.
