Del Prado: Good win at bendigo two runs back then failed last start on heavy has to be forgiven. Did win in this class and similar distance as said two back so has to be considered, but certainly a hard task with 61.5kg today!
Bel Seal: Continues to run well this prep but certainly doesn’t win out of turn with three seconds in a row and a third behind that. 60kg makes it tough back to dryer ground today, won’t be lacking fitness.
Grand Sai Wan: Ran well first up in much easier class on heavy. Last prep measured up in city grade over 1600m+ so should compete today but think he finds best over further in slightly weaker grade.
Cross of Gold: been going around on the synthetic the last few runs but hasn’t been able to match up at the grades. Really looks a throw at the stumps before a spell is considered.
Firehouse Rock: Seems to find his best runs early into his preps and proved that last prep with a close 3rd to ALpine Eagle and San Nicasio in his first two runs in 3Y-GP2 company. Never placed from 4 attempts at track but never runs badly here really either. Expect to be on speed and goes well at distance. Had the ultimate gear change (GELDING) as well which will help.
Marco Polo: Fish out of water! Very poor first run in VIC at Geelong last start… did win over in Adelaide in lesser company three back.. best seen on a firmer track than today.
Rainbow Storm: Never won first up at track or at distance in the past. Best seen over further. Think we just have to take him on here…. even if his first up run last prep was okay at distance.
So Does He: Easy win last start in much easier company at Horsham. Short turn around does look ideal and weighted okay. No reason why he can’t win this.
Bon Rocket: Found nothing last start. Very disappointing. Two previous runs were solid. Has to find his best to still beat these.
Cyclone Andy: Didn’t beat a classy field last start at Cranbourne but got the win. Much harder today.
Free of Doubt: Doesn’t win out of turn and on recent form this clearly isn’t his turn from the barrier.
Reach Out: Finished last prep with a run over 3000m. Needs further.
Liberty Island: 3YO grade up into open grade BM-78. Ran Raposo to 1.8L two runs back and then 4.3L 4th to Volcanic Ash last start. Barrier 1 should see them push forward on him but i’m not sure he has the speed to get further forward than midfield. Very hard to run past all of these from the run he will get.
Lord da Vinci: Will be out the back again today and need to run past a thousand horses to get the win. Hasn’t won in a long time due to pattern of racing and can’t see that changing today even up in distance.
This is the Show: Last four runs has clearly been outclassed. Happy to take him on here.
Spanish Love: On her day she can win this, but she doesn’t win often and is very hard to trust. Need to see a few runs in.
Bradman: Ran well last two runs but pattern sees him get back and won’t change today from horror barrier. Need luck to be in the finish.
Tee ‘n’ Tee: FMB-64 winner two back… failed last start on heavy an excuse but really hard to consider here.
Volontiers: A roughy from the clouds. Ran Volcanic Ash to 0.8L last start at Caulfield off bottom weight… but that was a leader biased day and was expected.
Comments: Two standouts for me here are So Does He and Firehouse Rock. Very happy to take on Liberty Island in this large field from that barrier today on my speedmap information.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 8, 13
Strategy: So Does He to win. Smaller bet Firehouse Rock
