1. Mihalic: Little support for her all two runs this prep and has run accordingly, never a threat. Can’t see it changing today.
2. Reemah: Won her maiden well at Geelong but that was little surprise. Two runs since has shown very little. Up to 1400m today to try something different. Her best is more than good enough, but it’s hard to suggest that will occur today.
3. Serenade: Started single figures the last four runs and has failed to get beyond 3rd in a race with all 3 runs this prep being 3.3L off a win. Must change something and doesn’t exactly look better suited over 1400m.
4. Andrioli: Big start to finish win last start at Caulfield – was well backed that day after not winning her three previous runs. Flemington is much harder to do the start to finish win on but she maps to get a nice spot on speed.
5. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Talented filly. Beat Sacred Eye two runs back which is very good form lines. Didn’t exactly get the full 1600m last start and was a touch flat, forgive the run and rate on her best. Will sit midfield.
6. Denpurr: Going well this prep. Won at Warwick Farm with a sit then ran well after missing the start for 1.3L 6th in 3F-LR grade. Last start top weight at Randwick just missed. Clearly going well enough to measure up here.
7. Comprende: 2YO winner over 1000m. Well fancied horse by the stable and punters. Strong 3.3L win in much easier class last start at Morphetville. Broke the clock that day though so you have to respect the horses ability.
8. Tiz My View: Ran nicely enough last start behind Lake Geneva, but certainly has to improve to compete here. Poor barrier.
9. Queen of Wands: Nice enough filly who got a 2YO win over 1300m at Sandown beating the lesser class 2YOs. Came back this prep and been in much easier races to measure up.
10. Valley Sweetheart: Huge run last start at Moonee Valley. Top class form lines to bring into this race today. Looks very hard to beat with a repeat of that run from midfield as long as the horse handles the setp up to 1400m.
11. Hell of Highwater: Blocked for runs last start behind Andrioli and clearly should have been closer to a win than lengths suggest. Issue is if the horse can make the extra step up to this race today and improve onwards.
12. Irada: Didn’t ever have clean running last start at Caulfield and should have placed. Will be much better suited back to Flemington today and looks a clear chance.
13. Maysam: Good enough win in maiden grade but this is a huge jump up straight into this today. Hard to suggest.
14. Indarra: Couldn’t win a maiden last start and no excuses. Struggle to suggest.
15. Navita: Maiden winner from out the front off a soft tempo as a huge priced underdog. Not here.
16. Raggle Varr: Close to 4 length victory out the front on the biased Cranbourne track at big odds. Clearly has ability but will be very hard to replicate it in this grade.
Comments: Three stand out horses in this to me with Don’t Doubt Mamma, Valley Sweetheart and Irada ranking on top. Very happy to back all three today for a reasonable priced result. At curernt prices, Valley Sweetheart $6, Don’t Doubt Mamma $8s and Irada $14, we can beat all three of these for a return of $2.75+ odds.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: 1.35 units to win on Valley Sweetheart. 1 unit to win on Don’t Doubt Mamma. 0.6 units to win on Irada.
