1. Buffering: Goes well on all track surfaces but best is clearly the good track. 8 starts for 1 win 4 places down the straight. Places more than 2 in every 3 starts in this class. He is a champion. Very good win two back but well beaten when taken on from out the front last start at Moonee Valley. He is getting up in the years but he is still a good horse.
2. Chautauqua: Superstar. Magnificant win last start at Moonee Valley flying past the lot of them with the speed on. Against the bias in the TJ Smith on a very wet track he still got the win, it was the best of his career for mine, even better than last start. He then pushed Australian horse of the year Dissident to 0.5L over 1400m on a soft track and pulled up with Lacerations as well. He is the best sprinter in the world.
3. Boban: Unlucky last start when 2nd to Fawkner at Flemington over the 1600m. Probably should have got the win that day. Back to 1200m a bit surprising but I think he is good enough to run well at this distance. First time down the straight an issue. Best runs on dryer tracks in the past.
4. Terravista: Blocked for runs last start and never got a shot a them, but I’m not convinced at all that he was travelling well enough. Rebel Dane did frank his form at least. Handles the wet going with wins in the past but I believe it isn’t his ideal ground. Could back him to place but I don’t see any value in the win price.
5. Tiger Tees: Pace maker did his job pushing them along last start but couldn’t keep up with them either. Obviously goes best on wetter tracks but I don’t consider him a winning chance.
6. Flamberge: Not the most impressive win you will ever see last start at Morphetville and it really makes you question if the horse is actually good enough here today. 5 runs on soft or heavy for 4 wins. Group 1 winner… I can’t suggest he is the best here.
7. Delectation: Every man and his dog wants to be on this horse it seems.. Beaten by the bias last start when also blocked for runs in much easier company. I think Chautauqua had 3-4 lengths on him the previous start though… most believe he is going to be best on this ground.
8. Srikandi: Very respectable 2nd last start behind Chautauqua from midfield. Three runs on Soft or Heavy for Three wins to date. Goes on all surfaces but I still believe her very best runs have been on Good tracks. Weighted nicely enough today but I think she has to improve to win. Looks a great place chance.
10. Lumosty: The potential blowout? Seriously good horse. Well beaten by Srikandi on the soft two runs back over the 1400m. Probably best to the sprint distances. Tough ask IMO based on that first up run. Not for me.
Comments: We are getting a price required to back Chautauqua today with $1.70 already being bet and i can see that hitting above $1.80. On my market, this price is backable. I could also consider backing Srikandi at the $2+ for a place.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 8
Strategy: Chautauqua to win.
