Flemington Race 5
Duke of Brunswick: Up 5kg on win over Raposo two back at MV… meets Raposo 2.5kg better off today also for that win. Raposo was beaten last start by Volcanic Ash by 3L also who Duke beat last start at Sale. Never run a bad race and looks perfect to step up to the 1600m today. Most importantly, maps nicely to get a run just off the speed.
Raposo: Payne off Rawiller on, a run too late. Was false favourite last start at Caulfield. Step up to 1600m no issues but poorly weighted against Duke today the obvious concern. Longer straight should suit.
Liberty Island: Ran nicely last start at Flemington from the back when looked to have every possible. Barrier 1 today ridden for luck may settle slightly closer and could prove the difference in the end if good enough.
Cool: Had every possible last start at Sale. Better weighted today but struggle to suggest based on last start ratings… step up to 1600 does suit though.
He’s A Given: Did a lot wrong last start so not sure i can fully discount, but i can’t forgive a horse simply on that run either. Previous runs don’t measure up to this.
Monteux: Well weighted today after not the worst run ever behind Duke last start, but barrier certainly makes it hard to back him today as he will certainly be a long way back. 1600m should suit.
Pure Karma: Won two in a row. Big step up here though. Sectionals suggest we shouldn’t fully over-look this bloke.
Angry Gee: Well weighted today against the Duke for a large defeat… but last start in this grade didn’t perform well enough for mine to be winning here.
General Custer: Maiden winner back to BM-64 failed then 3YB-64 to get a win just. Hard to see measuring up to win.
Pemberley: Maiden only winner. Struggle to suggest on last two runs not getting the win.
Plan: Looking for sting out it seems, decent enough maiden win first up but wasn’t exactly the richest maiden. Does need to improve. Could place?
Beau Padrille: Maiden only winner. Run two back wasn’t bad at all from the back… last start missed start a huge issue and rider suggested better suited to dryer.
Sneferu: Every chance the last three runs this prep but hasn’t been able to get close to the win. Can’t see a change in that today.
Doubtless Star: Every chance last start and beaten by a poor field compared to this one. Not for mine.
Comments: I’m a fan of the Duke and i’m not jumping off today at the very positive price they are offering us on the E/W. Beau Padrille is the early overs in the race.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Duke of Brunswick E/W
