Flemington Race 5
Our Harmony: Continues to defy the bookies winning three of her last four in good fashion. Only fault was 3L 3rd at Moonee Valley on a soft track… but did handle a soft four runs back winning at this track so i’m not convinced it was the track that day. Up to 1400m certainly a query today, but she does have fitness on her side today. Herstory got the better of her last time they met over 1400m.
HerStory: Ran a very solid 2nd last start at Caulfield behind Volcanic Ash over the 1400m. Back to a wetter track today and expect her to have no issues in running from the mapping just off the speed. Looks very well rated here and is certainly due a win. Much better weighted than Our Harmony.
Lirabird: Meets Our Harmony 3.5kg better off today for 0.8L defeat last start at Caulfield. On breeding should be suited by step up today in distance and track condition should be no issue either.
Domino Vitale: Consistent type with 8 runs this prep and none outside the top 5 so far. Huge step up in class today though on last two runs and not quite sure she has the ability so far to beat this lot.
All About Rhythm: Done everything asked of her to date winning her maiden and then a BM-70… step up in distance and onto turf the obvious questions for this runner.
Amarela: Out the back last start at Caulfield and flew home to run a bold 2nd. Weighted super today compared to competition from that race obviously… but factors against today are clearly the barrier out wide and the distance increase to 1400m and of course the soft track. Not disputing she was blocked for a run two back, it’s just questionable if this surface is the best for the filly even if bred to get it.
She Can Shazam: Hard to dispute her form when you ignore last start run on heavy when didn’t handle the track. Continues to run well in this grade and step back to 1400m today from barrier 4 should be no issues. Horse just simply has to find it’s best and hope for luck in running and hope the gaps close for a few others to win.
Champagne Cocktail: Positioned perfectly last start just off the speed… the pace was obviously on when you look at the times, the winner and 2nd place horses are really good. Was a big run and the form out of that race will measure up going forward… looks a very nice type and well weighted back to 1400m here today. Will get a dream run on the rails, all about getting out in time and running on. Respect.
Dollars Not Sense: Maiden winner only on Pakenham Synthetic.. hard to make much more if it than say, horse won on that and has to make a huge step up to measure up here on that run.
But Perfect: Every chance so to speak first up at Caulfield… up to 1400m a step up straight away 2nd up… maiden only winner in past and while she has been ‘there abouts’ in city grade previously, it’s hard to see the win here based on first up sectionals.
Little Hottie: Maiden only winner, went around single figure quote over 1600m in first prep in 3F-GP2 both runs. $4.50 last start in easier company than this only run of prep over 1400m and failed to place. Struggle to suggest without seeing a run.
Miss Chaparral: Maiden winner. Can forgive last start run when out back and lost a plate on a track where you really need to be on speed. Softer ground will suit.
Taste of Money: Good win four back in much easier company but failed to measure up since. One to take on at the ratings.
Written at Dawn: Breathing issues first up then won a maiden quite well, massive step up required… but have to respect the horse from the in-form Maher stable.. but also have to remember the stable isn’t known for landing these types in these races.
Absolute Gem: Maiden only winner on Synthetic.. can’t give you much more than that apart from take the horse on in this grade.
Hi Spun: The maiden win two back was a long tiem coming, decent type, not this good enough though.
Comments: Herstory will be on speed and very hard to beat today. Rates to win. Champagne Cocktail at the weights looks very well placed also at $20+ currently and also has to be bet.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Herstory to win. Smaller bet Champagne Cocktail.
