Flemington Race 4
Lord Durante: Won very very easy last start at Caulfield over 2000m knocking us out of the quaddie #neverforget. 60kg today in same class (up 4.5kg on last start) and is expected to run well. Any rain will help the horses chances.
Tristram’s Sun: Scratched from last start. Best runs in past have been with a bit of rain so may be suited today. Just not sure he is going well enough this prep to be confident today.
Commanding Time: Every chance last start behind Lord Durante at big odds out the front and fell out of it late. Up in weight today, not one in my top 5.
Onpicalo: Hasn’t beaten much in the past if we are honest. Last win was a quite back and this prep best run doesn’t rate well enough to win this today. Has to improve. Never placed 3 runs at track… first time at distance.
Orientaped: Every chance last start at Flemington and just simply not good enough behind Majestic Duke. Three back run was fair on heavy.. would love it to flood but won’t happen. The wetter the better you imagine.
Vatuvei: Won very well twice in ar ow now over the hurdles… just here for the run by the look of things.
Clairvaux: Strong form this prep first two runs then just hit wet ground.. back to good and won very well at Flemington last start. Much harder here and may not get the track condition they want.
Refulgent: Continues to find a few too good. Consistent type but is poorly weighted again today giving Clairvaux 1.5kg for a 0.8L defeat!
Kings Palace: Ignore the fact he went around last start and rate on previous runs. Even so, not going well enough for mine.
Falago: Consistent type that has progressed through the grades this prep. Finding a few too good the last few runs, was fair at MV last start in this grade.. up 2kg today.. does have to improve to win.
Shikarpour: Money came for the horse big time two runs back and came against last start when the horse was ridden correctly not on speed and won very very well. Impressive victory and has the ratings to suggest he can make a jump up today to be competitive.
Seattleite: Hasn’t won for 9 months now. Five runs this prep not good enough to measure up here.
Comments: Very hard race to judge this one. If it was soft 6 or worse Shikarpour would be a very good bet, but with what may be a top of soft 5, you can’t be overly confident (still okay price at $6/2.20). Lord Durante is very off and on also and Clairvaux really wants a Good 3 from my ratings… Refulgent just doesn’t win recently also and Falago looks a step below winning chances… wide open race.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Shikarpour E/W
