Turner Bayou: Never placed first up in the past. Last prep ended with a strong win over 3200m… 1700m today… obviously has measured up over 2000m and 1700m isn’t too short, but clearly found best over further last prep.
Correggio: Found nothing two runs to date… best seen 2000m+ in the past. Hard to suggest on recent form.
Onpicalo: Looked to return to some form last start with a 2L 6th… wasn’t the best or worst run you will see over similar distance. Will be on speed today but never placed from 4 runs at track a concern. Track condition suits.
Vizhaka: Last win was at Bairnsdale! Two runs this prep and hasn’t exactly impressed. Needs to improve.
Abbasso: Very strong win last start at course and similar distance. Weighted fine today and expect to see him position just off the speed. Any rain helps. Would be more confident of his chances on a Soft 5 than Good 4 which is worth noting.
Tax Evader: Back to a heavy track to get a win last start at Geelong. Can run well today but does look a bit outclassed back on dryer ground today.
Shenzhou Steeds: Found very little first up on a heavy track over 1400m. Looking for 2000m+ to find his best but did run well 0.8L 3rd three preps back at course over 1800m.
Albonetti: Always needed the run first up and ran home nicely enough when never a chance out the back. Needs to improve again today but back in class and same weights is in well at the weights all things considered. Would love to see them sit more handy
By The Grace: Huge run last start at Flemington when out the back, blocked for a run and still ran a solid 6th. Look for an improved run again at weights today. Well in.
Yenhaab: Just simply ignore his first two runs this prep and rate on GB form. Blinkers on today should do the trick when he will sit on speed and have every chance if good enough. Looks a huge price.
Comments: Abbasso, Albonetti, By The Grace and Yenhaab are the four that stand out for me here. Yenhaab is a massive price and deserving of a spec bet at very least today. It’s no surprise to me that they are betting Abbasso as the favourite here, but if there is an upgrade to Good 4, he is definitely not the favourite in my books and the price currently bet is certainly not a price i could back at the weights. Albonetti is a slight bit of value but does need one more run for mine. By The Grace is the horse I want to be around today at hte prices.. in for a very good run today at the weights and will be hard to beat out as a best bet today.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: By The Grace Each-Way. Smaller bet on Yenhaab at big odds.
