1. Demonstrate: Well beaten last start at Moonee Valley by Holler. Previous runs this prep all been very good. Only ever won on soft tracks has to give you confidence. Just wipe last start off the record I say.
2. Secret Prophet: Omen bet for The Profits? 
– Nice enough maiden win at Geelong then failed at Pakenham. Back to form and won well at Randwick next start. Clearly much harder here but is running well enough to be a factor.
3. Les Darci: Big class jump this one. Never run on wet tracks but is bred to have no issues with the ground.
4. Kracken: Release the Kracken! Nice run at Sale last start blocked for runs. Going the right direction but I believe this is a class rise just a step above him at the moment.
6. Flying Spark: Every chance at Bendigo last start and beaten fairly. Large improvement required here and no wet track form.
7. Apoloboom: Looks like another Boom horse. Good maiden win first up and was wide last start running nicely enough at Sale. Clearly has to improve.
8. Ngarimu: VERY good win first up at Seymour. Did a lot wrong and won well in a very strong time. Very good barrier drawn today for a perfect run. Bred for wet. Expect the money to come for him.
9. Sogno D’oro: Maiden win two back. Well beaten last start at sale after laying in and being eased at the 200m. As a 2YO he ran well 4th in 2YO class, but this is really a step above what he has shown to date.
10. Palentino: Weir runner, started short both starts to date. Fairly beaten two back. Last start they went wide to make sure he won and he won it well as a short priced fav. Weighted well enough but obviously he has to improve on those runs.
11. Guilty As Sin: Maiden only winner. Last start well beaten but did do a lot wrong. Improvement required big time.
Comments: This really looks to be a race in three on form with Demonstrate the proven form, but queries over the horse being deep into a prep and yet to win in this class from 5 starts. Secret Prophet is clearly on the way up through the grades with a strong win last start at Randwick, but what actually did the horse beat that day? The 2nd placed horse came into that run with a 4th in BM-67 class and third placed was coming in with a BM-65 0.2L win at Kembla Grange. The bookies were scared of Ngarimu putting it up favourite. Money has come for a few others in the race with no surprise, but I can’t see Ngarimu longer than $5 on the day and I’m very keen to back the horse with the weight today from such a positive barrier.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: 1.5 units Ngarimu to win. 2 units Ngarimu to place.
