Flemington Race 4
Kaiser Sun: Had a great career in the making before an injury took a toll. Still came back and got a win on the board in Open class at MV last prep so it obviously didn’t have THAT much of an affect… but it was certainly telling the last two runs of the prep when pulled up lame in both races and also had breathing issues. I think the sting out today isn’t much of a disadvantage, if anything, it should help the horse today. Loves the straight, top weight.
Our Nkwazi: Hasn’t been seen at Flemington for a while and 1 run for 0 places. Obviously we all saw that win three runs back and hasn’t won since. No issues with two back run and simply out classed last start when out the back at Caulfield and didn’t run on.
The Thief: This is a horse with a huge amount of talent and the horse hasn’t seen a real wet surface like this sense that faithful day back in 2014 when he struck a win down the Flemington straight over a decent field by a big gap. Never won first up a massive issue, but he has the ability to measure up and form around Kaiser Sun in the past and other quality horses such as Magnus Reign is good enough to measure up.
Mr Make Believe: Disappointing first up and even last start on a heavy that should suit failed to place. Certainly takes a few runs to find his best into preps… 7 runs at track for 0 placings hard to consider on… even if there was a good 4th last prep.
Living On A Prayer: Bon Jovi Fan much? Failed to place last start at Open Class over in Canberra. Previous prep did place in open class at Doomben with 52.5kg… gets 57.5kg in this race which is similar to an open class QLD race sprint to be fair. The wetter the better.
King Buddy: Didn’t get a win last prep and only put in one decent run which was fresh first up in open class. 1000m may just be a little too sharp for him based on previous runs later in his career… but has measured up around horses in this type of class in the past if can find that form.
Il Cavallo: Absolute money muncher this horse. Beaten as favourite at 2 of his last 3 runs including first up at Ballarat when $2.40 favourite and failing to place with no excuses. Struggle to suggest here even down in weights.
It’s Poets Day: Finished off last prep real well with wins over this distance in BM-70 and 78 grade. First up got an easy kill but found very little two runs back in open class… last start back to easier than this ran a fair 3rd but was no match for Wild Rain on the soft track… think her best runs are clearly on a good track.
El Prado Gold: Adelaide horse that hasn’t won since 2013… yep you heard that correct. 17 runs in last 3 preps for 0 wins… quite a few 2nds and 3rds.. consistently in the money but finds one too good all the time including good types such as Eclair Big Bang and Dubawi Gold. This is his distance but best seen on Good tracks rather than soft.
Tansy: Nice enough win last start over the 1000m on a soft track at Ballarat. Previous runs do suggest he isn’t a winning chance, but the ratings of that run last start were good enough to consider a winning hope.
Comments: Over the 1000m trip class generally prevails. The E/W price on Kaiser Sun is more than appealing at $5/$1.85 in a very low rating race down the straight. The most surprising price for mine is the Bon Jovi named Living On a Prayer.. after all.. it’s half-way there! Bad jokes aside, the horse has run 2nd to Adebisi up at Doomben and won in open class on heavy track in the past with multiple placings.. the horse has the required ratings to measure up and $30+ looks well overs.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Kaiser Sun on the Each-Way. I’ll also have a smaller win bet on Living on a Prayer.
