Flemington Race 3
By The Grace: Won nicely two back at Morphetville after a good enough run at Caulfield the race before. Top rating run this prep obviously two back on wetter track. 60kg today back in class… has to improve but back to 1600m ideal.
Diaghan: French import. Found nothing first up over 1200m, not really a surprise. Up to 1600m today. Won a 1400m maiden in France then ran 2nd in 2YO-G3 over 1800m before 4th in 3Y-Gp3 class. Had 8 months between runs and best runs clearly on wet tracks. Nolen keeps the ride today instead of jumping onto Noela’s Choice a key item to note today???
Refulgent: Close by missed running 2nd last start to Clarivaux in harder class. 52.5kg up to 60kg today and is in the grade he can win at. Going well enough this prep to be in the finish.
Relentless: Blocked for runs and no chance last start at MV. Ran home okay enough first up at Flemington. Back in class here, can run a nice race.
Burning Front: Every chance last start well beaten by Maj Duke. Weighted just okay here but others do look slightly better weighted at ratings. Consistent type and never runs poorly.
Abbasso: Down from Sydney, Waller has success doing this recently…. but is he a top grader? Five runs this prep and best result 3rd… up to 1600m certainly suits him today but 14 runs for 1 win on a good surface is a concern and wasn’t won in two preps.
Noela’s Choice: Bolted in last start at MV on a wet track. Back to dryer today brings her back to them from a wide barrier and weighted harshly i feel. Obviously a chance but paying $8s not $3s for a reason today. If wetter would have been close to favourite.
Airalign: Two wins from 5 starts this prep. Hardest test today and hasn’t measured up to this grade or city grade in the past. Testing material stuff.
Churchill’s Wit: Ran well enough with no excuses first up over 1300m. Up to 1600m obviously suits based on previous preps. Goes well on this track condition and weighted okay enough. A chance.
It’s One: Got the win last start with the big weight at Pakenham. 6 runs for 0 places at course. 8 runs for 0 wins 1 place in this class. Barrier 17 makes it very difficult today.
Seattleite: Not going well enough this prep based on last four runs. Others preferred.
Tilla Bell Rings: Two runs in this prep, first up was okay and last start too slow away and out the back. Lots of troubles this horse and barrier 15 doesn’t help her. Best still is a little short of this.
Lilly Dazzler: Well beaten last start and issue with jumping well. Best even at weights will get her a place, but struggle to suggest the win.
Red Spyder: Consistent type. Ran nice 1L 8th to Bon Rocket last start. Up in distance up in class, has to make a big jump but last four runs not been more than 1.5L off a win.
Northern Jet: Decent enough win in BM-64 grade two back but then well beaten last start in easier grade. Doesn’t win out of turn and doesn’t look in the finish today at ratings.
Clemo: Just missed last start at Flemington coming off a solid win at Pakenham. Improving type but need to see a run in this grade to start with today and think needs a few runs more to get this level.
Comments: Not very keen to get invested here apart from two very small bets at odds on two horses that are overs in Diaghan and Relentless. Both have career peak ratings that can win this if good enough today at $51 and $31.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Small bet on Diaghan to win and Relentless to win.
