1. Crafty Cruiser: Not just here for some sandwiches! Ignore last two starts when well below his best and rate on previous runs. It is a worry his last month for me but we know he loves this track and this is his right grade.
3. Genuine Lad: Did a lot wrong but was really horrible in the Geelong Cup. Much better than that run on last prep’s form, but he hasn’t exactly shown that form the last 3 runs. Hard to rate him an absolute favourite in the race. Best form goes close.
5. Renew: He ain’t the worst horse going around but over the past two preps he has gone close to winning once and that was over 3200m. The further the distance the greater the horses chance. Don’t dismiss but has to improve again.
6. Tremec: Won on heavy last prep over this distance range. Outside that run, hasn’t gone close including this prep. Not for me.
7. De Little Engine: Out the back in the Geelong Cup and simply wasn’t suited by the tactics. Horrible barrier again today though so it’s hard to see a huge change in tactics? Not going anywhere near as well as last prep is a massive issue.
8. Disclaimer: Over-raced last start at Moonee Valley from an on speed spot but ran a very good race… first one all prep. Not sure if that speaks of the quality of race or not though.
9. Wexford Town: Good win three back in Adelaide but since then flopped on both occasions. Just went too fast two back and last start at Bendigo just didn’t see out the race either. Barrier 21 but will be heading forward. Has the ability but last two runs concerning.
10. Jim’s Journey: Is Tmps Voleur form the right form to take this race out? I’m not sure. Ran 0.3L 3rd to Temps two back then won an easier race well at Morphetville. Has to improve but is consistent on last three races.
11. Sasenkile: Last win on record was 0.1L over Phrases which isn’t exactly top class form. All five runt his prep hasn’t got within 3.3L off a victory. Has to improve.
12. Four Carat: Nice type of horse that loves distance races. Gone through the grades last prep but reached a limit when favourite at course and class over 2500m as favourite last prep and failed. Made his way through the grades again this prep with a strong BM-84 win over 2400m last start at Caulfield. Horse he beat that day has won since also. One to follow.
14. Pop ‘n’ Scotch: 0.8L off Zanteca last start at Geelong. Can we read much into Zanteca being 0.1L off a win in the Lexus? This horse has strong enough form lines to suggest a win with a 3200m listed race 0.1L 2nd on the record up in QLD.
15. Gingerboy: Nice win at Moonee Valley last start down in grade. Won easy. 54kg looks reasonable today and finds himself better weighted against Four Carat. Won over hurdles this prep over 3300m so no issues over the distances.
16. Red Fella: Ran 2nd in the Hamilton Cup last start but well beaten 4L off the winner. Never measured up to this class in the past and last start has me happy to bet around.
17. Annus Mirabilis: Well backed last start at Geelong and well beaten by others in this race. Has ability but obviously needs to improve on that last start run and gain lengths.
18. Cuban Fighter: Huge run 3rd last start in Open company at Moonee Valley over 2040m. Best runs in the past are over these distances so the horse will appreciate the step up in distance. Will be a long way back though.
19. Falamonte: Change of tactics to lead last start at Geelong off a 4L victory at balarat. Has to improve on both those runs but Zanteca form does look solid.
20. Spur on Gold: Beaten favourite in BM-70 grade last start over 2200m. Looked a good type last prep but just hasn’t measured up to the top level this prep.
22. Packing Empire: BM-64 3rd last start. Well beaten by others in this race this prep. Take on.
Comments: This is a very wide open race. The top four in the weights clearly all have the ability on their day to win, but it’s unknown if that is today. De Little Engine has been horrible all prep i can’t believe the horse is favourite, but that shows how weak the race really is. Four Carat is my clear top pick on potential while Gingerboy looks well weighted also. Cuban Fighter looks the horse at odds that will be flying home and could cause an upset.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Four Carat to win. Smaller bet Cuban Fighter.
