1. Beaten Up: 5 runs on soft tracks for 0 places, but he did run 1L 4th to Preferment this prep on soft. Too far back last start when beaten in Listed grade as favourite after missing the start. Two back run in Group 1 company 2nd to Magic Hurricane obviously strong enough form to measure up here.
2. Dandino: Massive query on the soft track today. Only 1 win in the past on a soft surface when he was a young horse five years back in a race about 30-40 rating points below this. A classy horse can get away with a win on a soft or even heavy track even if they don’t handle it as well as others. Certainly not suggesting that he can’t win on the surface, but it’s a massive factor against here. Will need a Soft 5-6 to be well in here.
3. Secret Number: Looks very well suited in this race today. WFA-G3 winner coming out of 3YO grade in 2013… one run 2nd to Prince Bishop in 2014 in Group 3 company as favourite.. Prince Bishop went on to win the Dubai World Cup four months later. One run back this prep before heading out to Australia saw him win a Listed grade race on a soft track. Looks very well in here today off his best.
4. Bonfire: The wetter it is the better his chances you must think today. Last two runs have been horrible not measuring up after a strong 6th three runs back over 2000m. Is the 2600m the distance he really wants?
5. Bold Sniper: The Queens horse in the Queen’s Cup. Will start under the odds. No disgrace 5.8L 4th in the Moonee Valley Cup last start after they broke the track record, he probably ran inside the record that’s how fast they went. Has won in the past on soft tracks… win wouldn’t shock but obviously has to improve on recent form to win this.
6. Don Doremo: The wetter the better for him you would think to bring him into this level of class. Has to improve lengths.
7. Like A Carousel: Going horrible this prep. Doesn’t like it wet really either. No thanks.
Comments: On paper this really does look a battle of three with Secret Number, Dandino and Beaten Up. I think Beaten Up has proven to us that he is a non-winner with 13 runs since May of 2013 for 0 wins. He always runs well but finds one too good. In reality this prep he has been running well, but he hasn’t ever been in a winning position. I’ve been in the Dandino bandwagon pushing it along all prep, but with the soft track today and this classy level of race, I’m jumping off at the price. Too many unanswered questions with the horse here for mine. All road points to Secret Number and I’m quite keen to back the horse in here.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Secret Number to win.
