Flemington Race 3
Distant Dreams: Old mate has been going around on the wet tracks as of late and just hasn’t been as suited as the runs last prep on the Good runs it appears… that being said she obviously won by 5 lengths first up on a heavy, so what would i know? Certainly in the right class to win in today and a soft track is presented.. early on in the day rail should give her every chance to lead all the way if good enough and barrier no issue with her clearly getting the lead.
Every Faith: Finished off okay from the back last start at Caulfield when never a chance behind Charmed Harmony. Typically see these types bounce back very well and with a softer track today looks well suited in this grade. Tricky barrier the big issue today to get a nice spot in running.
Special Miss: Struck through two runs back finally for a win after two average runs in harder company. Back up in class and softer track last start saw her go wide during the race but not finish off. Very hard horse to catch but certainly has the ability with three wins this prep at distance in similar class and weights.
To Be Honest: Very nice win two back at ballarat on the heavy then backed that up last start on the soft to win again over 1600m. Step up to 1800m suitable again today and soft track obviously suits on what we have seen so far. Gone to a new level this prep and rates well.
No Excuses Bec: Two runs to date on soft and never placed, but was not far off either time if we look closer into the detail. Out the back and ran home nicely enough for 3L 8th last start in much harder over lesser distance in a front runner won race at course. Best runs in past have been around this distance a few runs into prep.. looks to be hitting her peak and as long as no worse than a Soft 6, should be fine with the ground. Barrier 3 ideal for a good run and Katie back onboard very positive. Three runs this prep and not been close especially the last two runs… yet form says the horse wants the wet tracks… not won since 2013 says alot.
Let’s Be A Star: A very hard horse to catch, she went very close when 2nd two back behind Minnie Downs… well beaten by To be Honest last start…
Iteration: French import from the Hayes stable. Looking for further than first up 1400m distance… but was a very good run that day. Up to 1800m and 56kg back in this class looks really ideal. Barrier 1 today will see her position just off the speed for a gem of a run. Price looks very reasonable. Only concern is the soft track.
Lilly Dazzler: Last start was a decent enough run to measure up to this grade. Just think she finds a few too good here back on the soft ground where she has never won from 5 starts.
Melaleuca: Continues to run well this prep but hasn’t won the last 4 runs. Last start with 51kg looked to have very chance but couldn’t get closer than 1.8L. This looks a harder class for mine even if it is down in class.
Pass The Post: Every chance last two starts at Sale and 4th both starts. Did have an excuse run last start but none the previous. Can’t see the jump today.
Kept Woman: Need a career peak and then more and more again to measure up today… last start run was fair on a soft track though.. have to respect the horse has ability.
Comments: When looking at this race you have to consider what the limits are for each runner, and the Hayes import Iteration clearly has the highest level potential out of the rest of these. The next thing to consider is where they are going this prep… many horses are stepping up in class or similar class today at the same distances coming off nice runs in those classes while Iteration is down in class today up in distance from a very nice run around some very good mares. The draw is perfect and the only concern for me today is the soft track… we are getting the price to find out. Dabernig gave the horse his tick of approval in the stables weekly video and says soft track no issue.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Iteration Each-Way ($4.40/$2 currently being bet)
