1. Famous Seamus: Running well enough this prep to suggest he has the ability to measure up to this grade of race today. Last start never on the track has to be considered in a race won by the all the way leader. Barrier is horrible.
2. Messene: Going very much the right way deeper into this prep. Ran very well two back at Rosehill just missing beaten by Vashka who has won a Group 3 race since. Last start 4th in the Epsom was a solid effort from out the back. Can position much closer to the speed today from an inside barrier. Consider. Has enough class.
3. Disposition: Continues to run well this prep. Just missed behind Stratum Star two back and then last start well beaten by Lucky Hussler but beat Stratum Star who has come out and won since while Lucky Hussler came out and didn’t set the world on fire. Clearly the favourite in the race on form.. certainly a tricky barrier today an issue.
4. Charlie Boy: A bit of a forgive run last start at Caulfield when did a lot wrong over racing and never got cover. Has to improve significantly also on the previous run as well in the Gilgai.
5. Kool Kompany: G3 winner over 1600m at Newmarket over in the UK. Last 3 runs included a good run 2nd in G3 company over 1600m. Clearly will gain improvement from this run today… obviously a good horse but not sure the horse will be rock hard fit enough first up in Aus.
6. Ninth Legion: Disappointingly 6th in the Sale Cup. Not beaten by much but it’s hard to have on that run in a race that looks harder on paper.
7. Charmed Harmony: He’s back! Huge price on offer today. Wide no cover in the Rupert Clarke the whole trip on speed and finished just 1.35L off the winners. Much better weighted today against Disposition for that run and is the only clear leader in the race, negating the poor barrier. Huge price on offer today and enough rain is on the way to hit on the day. Opie onboard a good addition as the horse is to be ridden similar to Turn Me Loose is.
8. Red Excitement: Two trials coming into this today. Did the same last prep with similar trials and won first up in much easier company and then won at course and distance in the Chester Manifold. I think this is the hardest company he has faced for a while though and will need to be at the top of his game.
9. Richie’s Vibe: Ran nicely enough two back but that race hasn’t exactly shown us a lot of runs to follow. Last start well beaten. Hard to see on the backup the required run to date for mine.
10. Mr Utopia: Handles all types of track condition and handles a strong tempo. Make no mistake about his first run and the result on paper, yes, he saved a lot of ground, but he was never pushed out and when he was asked to go, he was finding before having no where to go. Clearly going well enough this prep and has to be considered.
11. Hosting: Finished alongside Mr Utopia first up at Caulfield. Never won at track from 8 attempts… i had Mr Utopia going the better of the two last start and Hosting is giving Mr Utopia 1kg today.
12. Artlee: The wetter the better for this guy. Country Championships winner by a mile at Randwick with the bias that day when on speed. Won a nice race at Scone after that then came back with a respectable third behind Dothraki and That’s A Good Idea two weeks back. Has to improve for mine on that effort but up in distance obviously suitable.
13. Gracious Prospect: Always runs a decent race over this distance. Got two wins in much easier class over this distance at course last prep and ran quite a few places after that in harder races. Didn’t show me enough first up to be confident of a victory.
14. Good Project: Toughest test to date for this Waller runner. Won’t get an easy time on speed today is a massive issue from the wide barrier. Been carrying weight so will enjoy the 54kg off the tempo out the front. Has been running time so may just be suited? Can’t ignore.
15. San Diego: Hasn’t won in a fair while and that was a 0.1L win. Not the worst run first up over this distance… will be a long way back and barrier 1 will mean a lot of luck required. Not for me.
16. Sadaqa: Will be pushing on speed. Didn’t beat much at all last start at Seymour. Take on.
Comments: I can understand the appeal today in Disposition 1600m back to 1400m today back to where he won well first up in the Tontonan, I can’t see myself playing here without savering the horse with $4.5+ on offer. Messene is a horse I just have to take on but no way i can leave out of the Quaddie in this today.. the whole just finds ways to not win and it’s been a long time between drinks. Mr Utopia has drawn a nice barrier today, but the horse is best when ridden cold and with the tempo on, I just can’t see him making up the 10+ lengths required the final 400m. Good Project looks well suited on speed from the spot, but this is another step up in class and at the prices I’d much rather Disposition… still deserves to be single figures in betting. It comes as no surprise that the clear value in this race to me is Charmed Harmony. The rain is expected to sit Saturday now, not Sunday, and I’m expecting it to hit to make the ground absolutely perfect for this race with Charmed Harmony wanting a Good 4 to Soft 6 range. His first three runs this prep were very strong with form lines around Awesome Rock, Extra Zero and Jacquinot Bay holding up very well this prep. His run in the G1 Rupert Clarke was huge 3-wide on speed beaten just 1.35L… finds himself KG’s better off against the favourite here and looks the clear speed horse with only Good Project from a wide barrier expected to want to lead it up.
Confidence 80%
Early Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 7, 10, 14
Strategy: 1 unit Charmed Harmony to win. 1 unit Charmed Harmony to place. 1 unit Disposition to win.
