Flemington Race 2
Face Forward: Ran it slower last start out the front and while she just missed, it’s important to note how much slower the run was than the strong win previous to that over the 1200m. Back to 1100m looks ideal today and 60kg no issues.
Rough Justice: Unlucky 2nd last start at course over 1000m when just missed behind Husson Eagle. Lost a plate as well that run. Up 5kg today. Goes well down the straight but has been beaten 0.2L 0.3L and 0.1L down the straight!
Reigning Meteor: Decent horse but well beaten last start and hard to be confident at all on him measuring up against this lot today after last start.
Illustrious Lad: Simply too far back last start behind Husson Eagle and finished off nicely. Slightly better weighted today than Rough Justice and surely won’t be that far back today if ridden correctly. Rates very well.
Stingray: Well backed after gear change (nuts off) last start but found nothing. Very costly horse to punters with no win in the past 11 runs. Hard to suggest.
Star Stealer: Gets 2kg on Rough Justice today for a 0.1L defeat when facing the breeze and running very well over the 1000m. Was first up as well so should be even fitter second up today. Rates very well.
Cashed: Almost have to ignore last start when he won the race of the stands side but they were well beaten by the far side group. Up 4kg today looks well enough weighted here… could be value.
Lirabird: Looks to be weighted quite well today on last start run down the straight here when 0.8L 2nd to Faction. Down 3.5kg today and have to consider a chance on last start.
Lord Esprit: First up today. Only won a maiden last prep. Hard to suggest against this lot just yet.
Viking Ransom: Did a lot wrong last start at Sale before going for a break. Did win his maiden well enough but back to this distance first up in this class looks a little hard to start with.
Iron Jake: Decent run first up in maiden class beaten by a handy one in Shakespearean Lass when green… then won well at Bendigo the next start. Has ability.
Orange River: Average at best maiden win. Not sure she measures up to this class just yet.
Dezannam: Well beaten last start. Hard to have on that run.
Comments: Face Forward, Rough Justice, Illustrious Lad, Star Stealer and Cashed look the key chances while Lirabird is also in the mix. The three that stand out to me are Star Stealer off that last run, looks weighted to win off a very good run and now 2nd up should be fitter. Face Forward is consistent and even with the top weight looks well rated considering last three runs down the straight were 3L win, 1L win and 0.2L 2nd. Cashed is the value and really x factor unknown horse with D Oliver going on.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Three horse play. 2 units Star Stealer to win, Face Forward 1 unit to win and Cashed 0.5 units to win.
