1. Sysmo: Respectable 2nd to Our Voodoo Prince last start at Moonee Valley. Handles wet tracks. Tough with 61kg from barrier 14.
3. Distillation: BM-82 winner over 2600m and best run to date is over 3200m in Group 2 company. 2000m really looks too short here. Never won on wet.
4. Velox: Out the back and blocked for runs last start at Caulfield. Beat home Prince of Penzance in a no form race two back. Very strong run on soft three back at Pakenham… was his peak run… looks well suited today and could sit closer to the speed than mapped.
5. Okahu Bay: Well beaten last start behind Excites Zelady. Best run in the past over 2500m winning a 3F-GP3… think even on that she has to improve today. Never won on soft.
6. Pacific Heights: Continues to run well this prep without threatening to win. Back in class here and a wetter surface could do the trick. Handles it soft.
8. Prizum: Frustrating horse. Continues to run well and is the type of horse that finds a way to win in a week like this. Last win was on a soft track and has his best results % wise on soft tracks. Went very close four runs back at course and distance 2nd to Refulgent on soft.
10. Divan: A little surprised to see him a $3 favourite today, but he is going back from a Group 3 race to a BM-90 race off a 2nd to The Offer in the Bendigo Cup.. The Offer then ran top 10 in the Melbourne Cup. Zabeel so surely the horse gets the ground with no issues… going more than well enough based on two back and last start runs.
11. Have Plenty: All you can do is keep winning and that’s what Have Plenty is doing over in Adelaide going from a R-58 grade up to BM-75 then BM-82. This is a true test today for the horse… only run on a soft was a fail but did win maiden on heavy. Has ability.
13. Nesbo: Every chance last start at Kyneton 6th to Tristrams Sun. Was a decent enough run. Well back in class and short back-up if runs. Goes well on soft tracks… 3 wins 0 places at this class in the past.
Comments: There really aren’t many winning chances in this for mine. Have Plenty needs to improve again and I’m willing to take it on. Sysmo looks almost weighted out of this with 61kg… has the jockey to win but I think his form this prep has only been fair and even on the last start run, up 6kg here giving alot of weight away, he has to improve. Prizum is a big price on the soft surface today… a really good place price with 10 places from 22 at this track and 8 places from 11 runs on soft tracks.. can win. Velox is the obvious danger to the favourite back to the soft track today where a career peak was reached, but i think Velox has to improve it’s class before i can take $4.40 about it. All road point to Divan for me here off 54kg after a Group 3 2nd to The Offer with 54kg last start. Weighted to win and gets a gun run from the barrier.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Divan to win. Also back Prizum to win for a small amount.
