3. Libran: Looked a good type overseas in the UK winning a few races between 2000m-2400m recently. On speed type and have to respect. Only issue is the distance today and the track condition may also be an issue with them keeping him mainly to dryer tracks over there.
4. Lucky Paddy: Good win last start at Moonee Valley in harder class. Made the jump up and should take the extra step over the 2000m. Has to improve though for mine to get the win.
5. Assign: Went over as favourite to Morphetville and was a touch disappointing Down in distance today a bit of a shock…. i think the key to this horse looks a firmer track and that’s why the horse was purchased.. soft track first up may explain the run? Would need a Good 4 track today and not a Soft 5?
6. Firehouse Rock: Doesn’t run a bad race. Continues to run well this prep. Just missed last start at Caulfield in easier company… well enough weighted today. Very tricky barrier.
7. High Midnight: Well beaten last two runs in Group 3 company. Back in class but still a very hard race. Need to improve. Soft firm recently only fair.
8. Baron Archer: Out the back early in the race last start when jumped with issues. Ran home very well and is nicely weighted gaining 1kg on Lucky Paddy for a 0.3L defeat for doing a lot wrong. D Oliver jumps off surprisingly.
9. Berisha: Didn’t beat much last start at Pakenham but won very well. Proved to be a very good type last prep and finally showing it on the track. Has a strong turn of foot.
11. Plot The Course: Beat a nice type in Shikarpour last start at Bendigo coming off a 5L Cranbourne win. Clearly flying but has to improve again. Goes well on wet.
12. Manapine: Strong win two back at Flemington then respectable 5th in Group 1 behind Delicacy. Has won first up in the past (Maiden over 1400m) and won it well. Will be out the back today an issue and doesn’t have a great strike rate in this type of company over distances below 2500m
13. Scherzoso: Step up again today. last two runs up in Sydney ran okay enough over similar distances. Has to clearly improve.
15. Bikila: Needs further on everything we have seen in the past… not going well this prep.
Comments: I’m not convinced Berisha is a $3.90 shot here like the odds suggest, it’s much more open than that. I doubt i’ll be betting here but if i was Baron Archer is the right price on the E/W off that last run.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Baron Archer E/W
