1. Precious Gem: Has runs on the board at this track having won in the past. Three runs back a close 2nd in Group 2 company behind Amicus. Last two runs have been beyond poor though well beaten. The horses best runs have been when there have been slow to medium tempos. Times of the two expected leaders today suggest they won’t go overly hard. Forgive last two runs.
2. Zarzali: Well fancied Cummings yard runner. Would be great to see them get a win on the day. Respectable third over the 1600m in Group 3 company last start from out the back. Will be much closer to them coming around the turn today in a much smaller field. Third up should be peaking. 4th in a Group 1 on record last prep. Good enough.
3. Lilly Dazzler: Winner at course and similar distance last prep on a softer track in a good race. First up run never really got a run at them and was a nice run in that class. Up to a more suitable distance today also and the genius in McDonald onboard. Good barrier key.
4. Clear Direction: Last start 7th at Murray Bridge! Previous run wasn’t terrible in the Golden Nugget tough for third and run before that was dead last. Has won over this distance at Ballarat in the past but this is clearly a step up in class again.
5. Inishowen: Promised a lot and delivered very little on the track in her last two preps. Hard to see the improvement on the last two runs but obviously an easier race.
7. Cathy’s Mark: Good win last start as favourite at Ballarat after a very poor run in the Blazer at Caulfield. Distance increase suits, but hasn’t gone close in these types of races in the past so needs to have improved again on last start.
9. So Feesable: Will be on speed today. COuldn’t win a slowly run BM-64 last start at Ballarat which is a concern.
Comments: On paper there are only a few clear chances with Precious Gem, Zarzali and Lilly Dazzler the standouts. I just can’t entertain the price on Zarzali today knowing what we know. The horse is a great chance to win, but I have the horse rated closer to the $3 mark than the $2.30 being bet. The value in the race is clearly with Lilly Dazzler and Precious Gem.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Lilly Dazzler to win for 0.5 units and Precious Gem to win for 1 unit.
