Flemington Race 2
Windjammer: First up run found very little at Sale. Hard to back on that run… clearly needs another run today and not sure he is going to make the grade off what looked such an exciting career to come when going well as a 3YO.
Written Up: Well back in class today after some very good runs in much harder quality. Last two runs down the straight were good and soft track today looks more than ideal at the weights. Rates to win.
Bishops Castle: Loves it wet. Last start down the straight ran nicely in harder company. Similar weight to Written Up today as well for that last start race similar finish. Both horses have upside on the wet… on my ratings Written Up just gets the nod over this guy.
Del Prado: Just snuck past Club Command to win a solidly run 1300m race at Bendigo last start. Has to be said that i’m not sure he won it more than Club Command losing it hanging in and going to the worse part of the track. This is a harder class again and back to 1200m not exactly ideal when i think the horse wants further on what i saw last start. Have to respect at very least today.
Arena Rock: Very consistent last prep with 2 wins a running top 5 in all 6 runs that prep. Best runs clearly over further so i’m happy to take her on first up here today.
Handsome Tycoon: Writing was on the wall first prep with strong 3YO runs then a BM-70 7L win on heavy… but start of this prep has certainly taken a long time to find his feet. Beat a good horse at Sale last start in I’m ABlaze and the soft track again will certainly suit… most importantly, runs well down the straight. Stable has taken their time with him and looks well in today.
Benchi Pegasus: Scratched from racing last week and held over to this race today. Won very well last start on Heavy beating home NiminyPiminy who has since franked that form big time. The wetter the better for this guy and clearly the Soft 6 should be more than ideal today to find form. 1200m also looks his dance. Rates well.
La Venta: $2.80 favourite last start at Sandown when beaten with low weight and no real excuse apart from being out the back. Previous form suggests goes very well at the 1200m but best runs have been 1400-1600m and on dryer tracks.
Lord Da Vinci: Ran home nicely at Caulfield last start but the ship had sailed out the front with the winner long gone! Will be hitting the line hard late but probably just misses again if his form is to go by. One that I think you just have to continue taking on and if he wins, so be it. Especially on soft.
Mio Dio: Consistent this prep getting within 1L at best but never looked ‘the winner’ in any race. Only ever won in past on Heavy so can’t see the soft win here.
Grand Gallop: Synthetic win from an on speed position last start, no shock really. Soft track today which has never suited the horse and up in class and 1200m. Take on.
Go De Orpen: BM-64 winner last start… previous start failed to place at Bendigo with every chance in BM-70. Has ability but not top class and need to be at these weights to measure up.
Olly I Am: SPEED HUMP WARNING. 12 runs this prep 0 wins (Last start 6th in BM-50). Beaten a combined 131.5 lengths.
Comments: Tough and wide open race to get the day started. Written Up and Bishops Castle are both worth considering at the top of the weights, but I feel based on raw potential ratings and class that Handsome Tycoon is the horse to beat down the straight today while Benchi Pegasus has the form lines to measure up at double figure odds.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Handsome Tycoon to win. Smaller bet Benchi Pegasus
