Flemington Race 2
Mohave: First time down the straight. Claimed a solid win two back at Doomben in this grade over the carnival. Previous two runs were quite poor all things considered and failed last start on a heavy track with breathing issues. The firmer the better for this horse.
Husson Eagle: Hard to fault his form lines having won in 3YO class three back, an unlucky 4th two back when just too far back and then last start beating Rough Justice by 0.1L. Up to 1200m today but i’m not sure the horse is best suited to this distance honestly, i think the horse is best over the 1000m trip.
Rough Justice: Quality win last start down the straight backing up off a close 2nd to Husson Eagle two starts back when losing a plate. Never runs a bad race and barrier 3 should see him in the best part of the track. Most importantly had no issue with the 1100m last start so 1200m should be no issue.
Sang Choi Bao: Measured up last prep to some okay horses but then coming into this prep fell away from them. Went back to BM-70 last start to find a close 2nd. Will be a long way back but could be back to his best?
Face Forward: Brave enough run last start at course over 1100m when 2nd to Rough Justice. Down 3.5kg today has her well in at the weights. Never run poorly down straight and best was seen on a Good track. Rain wouldn’t hurt at all either.
Illustrious Lad: Every chance just not good enough last start and previous run before that. Continues to run well without threatening and that’s what i’m expecting again today.
Valderrama: 0.8L 2nd to Raposo last start at Moonee Valley with 52kg. Up 4kg today but that was a high enough rating race to have him competitive here if he handles the straight. Could threaten.
Hell on Earth: BM-64 2nd last start…. previous runs did get a maiden… not sure i could be confident at all on him today. Market tells the story.
Our Harmony: Continues to go through the grades going from strength to strength winning three of her last four races including a 1100m 3YOF win last start at Caulfield. Poorly weighted today if you consider she is 3kg worse off against Rough Justice compared to their Mornington battle. Can win but price looks slight unders.
Comments: Tricky race. Face Forward appeals at the weights today while Rough Justice is super consistent. Husson Eagle may just be outside of the right distance while Our Harmony and Illustrious Lad both have claims to improve and measure up. Mohave is the value in the race based on the two back win if we get a Good 3 or Good 4 track – we are getting the price to find out!
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Mohave E/W
