Flemington Race 1
El Greco: May have got there a tad too early last start and was a sitting duck late just getting claimed by Bengal Cat. Meets 1kg better off today and should get a better run today hugely having been ridden 3-4 wide with cover last start the whole race. Have to forgive the run and believe he improves today.
Royal Rumble: Continues to progress through the grades and won well last two starts over in Adelaide. Much harder today and i’m not sure he is exactly well weighted today.
Bengal Cat: Huge win last start at Flemington. Enjoyed a soft track first up so if the rain does come, no issues. Had to stop, get out and go around El Greco last start to win… was a very good win! Did get a charmed run from barrier and the 13 today will make it much harder to get the required run which is the only issue.
Irada: Ridden for luck last start and got it.. but couldn’t win. I’m not sure the extra 200m today will suit her either from everything i’ve seen. Barrier helps to sit slightly further forward today if jumps well today.. has a future but does a lot wrong.
Automatic Choice: Every chance last two runs and no good. Pass.
Ayda: Ran nicely first up in 2YOF class at MV and then just missed last start at Sale. This is much harder today.
Gungastruck: Had to go to an open grade maiden to break through last start at Pakenham. Much harder this one today and i’m happy to take her on.
Parmalove: Out the back and had every chance last two starts. Just not good enough for this grade.
Ma Raison: Not the worst first run ever but clearly well beaten into 4th and need a massive improvement to measure up to those 3 that finished ahead of him.
Party Boy: Couldn’t win a maiden last start over the distance at Pakenham and the prize money of that race wasn’t exactly exciting. Massive step up to consider here… happy to take him on in this.
Flying Light: Does alot wrong in running but two runs to date and failed to place in maiden grade. Up to 1600m will need to sharpen him up significantly, but even then, i can’t see the win.
Triple Effort: Every chance last start from the run she had. Just not good enough for this race.
Ayers Rock: Failed to place all three runs to date. No surprise if finishes last again today.
Comments: El Greco, Bengal Cat, Irada and Ma Raison are the four chances that rate to win this. Ma Raison could show huge improvement today from first up run and well weighted down 2kg, but does map awkwardly and there is only minimal value in the price unless $20+. Irada maps awkwardly again today if misses the start… i’m not convinced the horse is wanting the 1600m. Bengal Cat and El Greco look solid plays here and you are getting the price to back both today and i’m confident we are on the right horses.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: 2 units El Greco to win. 1. 5 units Bengal Cat to win.
