Gear Changes: Lycia – Winkers First Time & Blinkers Off, Parcel – Tongue Tie Off
1. Thurlow: Ignore the fact she went around first up pulling up lame. A month between runs, G3 winner as a 2YO and measured up behind some good horses, handles the straight.
2. Petits Filous: Looks a very very good type over the sprint distances. Has to handle the straight today but if she does, looks a straight forward victory today even against these good types.
3. Strykum: Easy kill first up at Moonee Valley when well backed and was allowed to control tempo. 2nd placed runner failed next start in harder company.
4. My Poppette: Very good horse as proven first prep but best run was clearly the 1400m run… needs further to find best.
5. The Grey Flash: Winner in 2YO-G3 company over in Adelaide and 2nd to Last Bullet also. Obviously has ability but this is a step up for sure today.
6. Serenade: Could be value today. Proved to be a very good 2Yo including 2L defeat in the golden slipper which is nothing to sneeze at. Looks the type that will appreciate a straight track honestly.
7. Miss Idyllic: Very easy and strong win first up at Geelong… but didn’t beat much obviously. Going great guns by all reports at home and only run down the straight was a very good 4th as a 2YO in a GP3.
8. Take Pride: Not the worst run first up all things considered. Will be suited back down the straight on runs last prep and could be a bit of E/W value if you want to go that way.
9. Lycia: Never run a bad race yet but clearly looks the 2nd raters of the O’Shea stable too date. Have to take on here.
10. Payroll: Very good first prep and unlucky not to get a city win. Have to respect.
11. Nadawaat: Stable suggests she is going well enough at home to contest. Went around favourite only run down straight and failed to get close to the winner. Have to improve sharply from that run.
12. Parcel: First run off breathing issues. Have to take on.
13. Grey Street: hard to suggest on last start run.
14. Super Cash: Well beaten last start on heavy. Not sure i could recommend even a place here.
15. Hela Flyer: All you can do is space a field and he did that first up. Can run a decent race.
Comments: Petits Filous is the real deal and is the only way i could go in the betting here today. Serenade looks slight value but i was looking for closer to $16 to be putting money on, we may still get that drift and i’d be happy to back both if that occurred. Thurlow at $61+ also slight value if can reproduce top figures.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Petits Filous to win.
