Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day 21 February 2015. We have been dished up one of the toughest cards of the year with very few short priced favourites and alot of value on offer. We have Deep Field vs Lankan Rupee as the main course and a few talented runners inbetween that. The Hayes yard are set to have a flyer today on my ratings and fill our best bets while I really want to hear what a fox says when it wins.. hopefully as our best value of the day. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 Wawail
What beats Wawail today? Very very good run first up when just cruising into it… horse was headed and then Walker asked for something and he produced and found more and more at a distance that isn’t his peak… up to that today and I can’t see anything getting past him. Very comfortable with the price today.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 Tawteen
Three main threats in this race and all have shown talent. Very keen to stick with Tawteen after the first up win. Will be fitter for the run back to a more suitable distance today, will be in the finish and price is very kind for this class of runner.
Best Value
Flemington Race 5 Dany The Fox
Huge price on offer today for Dany The Fox. Proven at the course, distance and in this class, weighted super against rivals and maps well enough. Rated much shorter… only getting the price due to first up run where had breathing issues. Over them it appears and will put in a very solid run. Dry enough for him also.
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
Ragazzo Del Corsa: Very strong win at course over 1000m last start. Have to respect here.
Brooklyn: Close run 3rd first up. Have to respect ability but others look slightly better.
Chapel Road: Average trial form. Not today for me.
Vicious: Well backed Hawkes yard runner and market is only guide. Hawkes said horse is doing everything right for them and this is one of their key 2YOs.
Take Pride: Two very strong wins to start prep including down straight. Ignore last start when failed. Rate on two back win.
Jameka: Key chance here today. Strong run from too far back last start at Sandown. Looks the type to be suited by straight.
Parallel Lines: Only run to date very average. Happy to bet around.
Pasadena Girl: Not too bad a trial. Price represents chances.
Peppermint Girl: Average trial form. Others preferred
Stay With Me: Very well backed first starter from Hayes yard. Market the guide.
Comments: How could you bet this? I couldn’t.. if i had to i think the price being bet on Take Pride is insulting.
Confidence 30%
Strategy: Take Pride E/W
Flemington Race 2
Crafty Cruiser: Two of last three runs have been huge in harder company finding Taiyoo the winner both times. Two back run was poor though. Weighted very well today and Taiyoo backed up that form last night. Barrier is the massive issue though considering so much speed in race.
Tooleybuc Kid: Further forward last start at Flemington when rated better than Crafty Cruiser and peaked. 57kg today and back in class looks well suited. Crying out for rain but it won’t be coming… but will be enough give in the track this early in the day to give him every possible.
Sir John Hawkwood: Hard to see the required improvement from anything we have seen. No thanks.
Only A Pleasure: Not the worst run last start at Flemington. Really wanting further.
Woakwine: Country grade wins recently. Won’t measure up to this.
Arch Fire: Goes well enough for you to take note of his class and 2000m is far enough for him to run well.. but is just here for the run. Never placed first up.
Use The Lot: Both runs this prep have been very average. Can produce better but looks hard today.
Turnitaround: Continues to run well without winning. 52kg today is well in again at a course we know he likes and distance that should suit.
Zimbali: Bit of a surprise winner first up at Sandown over what looked an unsuitable distance. Up to 2000m very ideal… Looks a solid progressive type to follow.
Anfitriona: Disappointed by this talented mare last two starts. Should have been winning two back and last start was average at best. Goes well at distance but best seen on wetter.
Aurum Spirit: Surprised by running very well last start at Sandown. Can run well again from barrier but will be a little too far back for my liking.
Aragonese: Pushed Jac Bay last start to the limit and just missed. Jac Bay run well since. Up to 2000m first time a big unknown.
Comments: Crafty Cruiser comes into this over the odds again and looks a great place chance. Tooleybuc Kid deserves to be a favourite at the ratings today but may get shuffled further back than wanted. Turnitaround will run a game race again but you have to be concerned with our he gave it up to Rivers Lane last start. Argonese rates nicely off that 2nd to Jac Bay but will he last the 2000m? Zimbali is the horse i’m keen to follow forward and continue backing. Very strong win last start and 54kg today should get a nice spot and finish off late.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Zimbali to win.
Flemington Race 3
Set Square: First up at 1400m today. Lost over 1350m in maiden class last prep and won maiden over 1600m.. found better over further each run. Happy to take on here.
Wawail: Undefeated filly who goes well. Won last start over 1100m and straight up to 1400m today. Hit the line strongly when others came up and headed her at the 200m… certainly wanting the extra distance today. Very hard to beat.
Mossbeat: Loves to run well and not in. Last three runs has run 3rd 3rd and 2nd by 0.4/0.3/0.1 lengths… on that would say she is due. Has ability to run well.
Maastricht: Hawkes stable runner. First up run was poor. Previous prep 0.2L 2nd to Fontein Ruby over course and 200m extra. Don’t dismiss based solely on first up run. Player here.
Sweet and Speedy: Beat Mossbeat by a nose last start. Not sure she is the best going around here.
Clover Lane: Strong run last start behind Wawail but never winning. Should be suited by up in distance but has to find another gear to win.
Fenway: Showed promise last prep when kept improving and improving up in distance. Oliver keeps ride. Has ability to go close.
Indulge: Won two in a row in much easier than this. Oliver jumps off. Happy to bet around.
Miss Adele: Missed start last start at Sandown and still ran home well. Could be a blow out chance if runs up to peak and then improves on it also.
Comments: Finding it hard to bet around the favourite here in Wawail. Very progressive type who will be suited up in distance.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Wawail to win
Flemington Race 4
Secret Toy Bizness: Never won first up and needs further.
Sweet Emily: Good horse. Giving Tawteen 1kg today considering the 3L defeat last start and first time down straight. Not for me.
Tawteen: Strong first up win and that will have her fit enough for this with a good 21 days between runs. Weighted very well today and will be sitting out the front with Chloe in Paris. Top chance.
Runway Star: Pace was on and set it up for Runway Star first up at Sandown. Peak performance but still has to improve here for mine to get past tawteen.
Cobblestones: 5 runs 0 wins at track. Won an average rating race off better weight last start at Sandown. Consistently runs well.
Antarctic Missle: 1 run 1 good win at course and distance two back. Last start found one better in Runway Star. Meets 3kg better today though. Looks a key chance.
Day After Tomorrow: Decent horse constantly runs well but outclassed here.
Chloe In Paris: Easy kill first up at Moonee Valley. Oliver keeps the ride today. First prep in 2013 ran Anatina to a head down the straight so handles it and has ability. Talented horse. Respect.
Nicamorae: Goes well down straight. Not the best chance but have to consider. Minor player.
Pouvoir: 51kg today but even that isn’t enough to give her a chance in this grade. Goes fine down straight.
Comments: Have to stick with the class and fitness. Tawteen ticks all the boxes.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Tawteen to win.
Flemington Race 5
Dany The Fox: Crazy price being bet today on old Dany who isn’t actually all that old. Back in class today, just forgive first up run when had breathing issues. A month between runs and he has a very strong 2nd up record, strong record on good tracks and always runs a good race at Flemington over this distance. Shouldn’t have too much trouble getting over for a spot from barrier. Tough horse.
Amorino: Been up a long time. Okay run two back but then failed hard last start. Couldn’t have even at weights.
Oregon Spirit: Goes okay first up and at track. Decent at distance also. Not seen the best of him though the last few preps.
Saluter: QLD raider who was running well in Open class up here. Always seems to find one too good.. not sure Freedman stable had him long enough at the weights to get the win.
Chile Express: Gun run got him the win last start at Sandown. Weighted okay but others preferred especially from barrier.
The Wingman: Been off over a year and is now 9yo. At his best even last prep he measured up to this class to run places but never win. No thanks.
Infinite Energy: Wet track did the trick two back. Last start in easier company was very average. Distance will help but prefer others.
Gracious Prospect: Snuck a win last start at course and distance in easier company. Poorly weighted today against Laohu and others in general.
Laohu: Looks to have progressed htis prep and weighted okay compared to Gracious Prospect. Barrier helps. Have to respect his ability and weight.
Swift Shadow: Ridden more forward last start over further did the trick for the Hayes stable to finally break through for a win with this ex-HK gelding. 52kg today means he is every chance again to step up.
Refulgent: Well backed favourite. First up run was fairly disappointing when 3rd at Moonee Valley. Up in class up in distance but down to 54kg looks ideal. Barrier hurts for a good spot in running but have to respect ability. Not sure deserves to be favourite just on 3YO winning form?
Thumbtacks: Old mate is going well in country grade. Finally gets 6-7kg off his back but much harder here. Couldn’t have him winning it.
Whistle Baby: Horse on the way up who finally got a win last start at Sandown. Has ability. Respect.
Comments: Two stand outs here for me in Laohu and Dany The Fox. Amazed at the price we are getting for Dany against these rivals at the weights.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Dany The Fox E/W. Also small win bet on Laohu.
Flemington Race 6
Disposition: Unlucky 2nd in WFA-G1 over 1800m to Moriarty over in Perth to finish last prep which included impressive wins over these distances. Will be far back in the run and is a massive chance if improved today.
Stratum Star: Ran well first up at Sandown. Back to Flemington where he always runs a good race and up to 1400m is suited. Has the ability to win.
Chivalry: Loves to run home well late and not win. Fair enough run first up to suggest in for an okay prep.
Merion: Better weighted today than Chivalry. Strong run first up and looks to be in for a nice prep also. Better when a sit just off speed rather than lead though is important factor. Rated very well last start.
San Nicasio: Got an easy lead and easy win last start at Caulfield. Barrier hurts chances today at a track that won’t suit as much. Much harder today. Happy to take on.
Testashadow: Rated okay runs last prep. Yes he was fairly huge from the back at Gold Coast and was a very nice 2nd, but I really do rate this race a little harder. Had a good 6 weeks off between runs which will have done a world of good. Have to respect.
Wandjina: First up today off a very solid prep last prep. Found his best over these distances but is a tricky horse to rate. Not sure gets the speed required to find another level… Oliver on and good barrier.
Bascule: Very average last two runs. Rate on two runs before that, but long time since we saw a decent run.
Lucky Liberty: Huge win last start at Flemington. Did a load of work and didn’t deserve to win but still found a way. Class does prevail when needed… but massive step up today. Looks unders.
Hauraki: Flat first up. Previous preps runs rated very highly. Can bounce back here.
Orient Lane: Had his chances first up. Very flat and couldn’t find much when required. Others preferred.
Better Land: Very very poor run first up. Couldn’t be near him today based on what we saw.
Comments: Very tough race for the start of the Quaddie. I think Merion is a huge price here in a very wide open race. Disposition could be anything when measuring up here. Stratum Star was nice first up and so was Chivalry. Happy to take on San Nicasio today. Testashadow is probably over odds… wandjina hard to rate but good jockey and maps well… Lucky Liberty i’m really keen to take on. Hauraki could be anything also! I think Disposition is the real deal and Merion is flying also.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 10
Strategy: Disposition to win. Smaller bet Merion.
Flemington Race 7
Lankan Rupee: Very strong trial, looks much more forward than last prep. Query for me is whether 1200m is his best distance rather than the 1000m. Top class horse. Expect to sit on the back of Deep Field and have the last shot or outside of Deep Field.
Watermans Bay: Good horse who recorded a close 2nd in WFA-G1 company last prep and then won over 1400m. 1000m looks too sharp and the Newmarket is most likely the target.
Fab Fevola: This is his distance, no further wanted. Tough weight to carry against these but found his first win in 25 rides last start. Payne on is a query for mine, but he will be able to get a lead, should be left alone out the front to go what he needs to do with his 1 gear and you just never know. I believe in miracles.
The Quarterback: Good horse in listed and BM company. Up to 58.5kg here… hasn’t had to handle the weight and in this class. Can’t see him going close.
Deep Field: All the money has been for him and I agree that 1000m looks more his distance than the 1200m, so i can see why they want to be on him. Flying in trials and trackwork and hard to beat. Will they lead today? Will the speed hurt his chances?
Brazen Beau: Will be taking a sit today and have the last shot at them. I have to say that 1000m looks too sharp for me. Good horse, but 1200m is ideal distance not 1000m.
Comments: Class over query for mine here. Can’t look past Lankan Rupee for mine. Yes, I will be having a go at Fab Fevola also, 100% biased on that one.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5
Strategy: Lankan Rupee to win.
Flemington Race 8
Akavoroun: Won 2 from 3 at track. Won 1 from 2 at distance with first up run last prep 3L behind Chautauqua not the worst form you will ever see. 58kg after claims… just missed over 1600m in a Group 1 last prep. Goes well first up.
Hosting: Progressed well last prep to claim two solid wins over 1300m and 1400m in harder grade. Nice first up record but probably find this too hard off 59kg first up and poorly weighted if you ask me.
Decircles: Should have won last two races and beaten just both times. Back down the Flemington straight where hs has shown his best in the past and weighted nicely again in this class. Respect his consistency.
Hard Stride: Horrible last start. two back run strong down straight… back to 1200m compared to 1000m an issue? Back in class at least.
Mr Chard: Huge last prep when winning over further… but ran a very close 2nd in Group 3 over 1200m at course and distance. Respect him in this race.
Magnus Reign: Well backed late last start at Flemington and got the cash. Tycoon Tara won since as well in city class.
Mandla: Goes very well down the straight. Not been seen for nearly a year… measured up at listed company. Quality horse.
Floatmyboat: Continues to run well without winning. Better over further? Go close.
Dig A Pony: Very classy mare but best seen over further. Goes well at track.
General Offer: Back to straight where suited and back in class. Ignore last start. Has ability to measure up.
Don Doremo: Needs further.
Single Days: Ran home very well last start. Watch for him late.
Comments: Most open race i’ve seen in a long time I have to say. About 7-8 key chances. I’d have Magnus Reign on top with Tycoon Tara backing up the form from Mr Chard.
Confidence 10%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 13
Strategy: Magnus Reign to win. Smaller bet Mr Chard.
Flemington Race 9
Petite Diablesse: Top weight here today up 3kg in equal class… Comes into this poorly weighted off two average runs. Struggle to suggest at ratings.
Sense and Reason: Continues to improve this prep with every run. Up to 1600m today. Only other time at distance range didn’t place. Running well enough to suggest has hope.
Marli Magic: Won two in a row. Similar class today but up 4.5kg after claims. Has to improve but can run well.
Berrimilla: Did a lot wrong last start at Sandown unlucky not to win. Similar class and weighted fairly. Barrier a concern but has the ability. Never won on a good track in 13 starts…?
QuickSilver Lass: Snuck a win last start. Poorly weighted even with claim.
Inishowen: Strong win last start over 2000m. Back to 1600m a huge query for me even at weights. Been well backed.
Zazparella: Can’t see going close off the last two runs.
It’s One: Fair run last start but had every chance i felt. Beat Inishowen three runs back and meets better at weights interesting.
Winston Drive: Close but just missed last start at course. Up to 1600m ideal and running well from very positive barrier. Maps to be hard to beat.
Pindan Pearl: Strong runs both runs this prep but both times never looked a winner. Up in class but weighted okay. Prefer some rain.
Good Music: Strong win back in class last start. Much harder here. Three back Percy on Parade form is okay.
High Design: Good run at Moonee Valley two back and weighted nicely. Looks a blowout chance at weights.
Arianne: Hard to see the improvement to beat all these i’m sorry to say.
Comments: Low confidence race. Winston Drive top pick. Think High Design is a massive chance at a huge price.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 14
Strategy: Winston Drive to win. Small E/W on High Design.
