Welcome to The Profits preview from Flemington 8 July 2017. We got back on the board last week with some nice odds winners at Caulfield and hope to continue that trend this week at Flemington on a card that presents some very positive betting opportunities. I will be on course as always watching them from the yard and look forward to providing you with my thoughts on Twitter. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Bullish Stock – 3.5 units Each-Way @ $9.50/$3.20
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Invincible Al – 1.75 units Each-Way @ $4.80/$1.95
Best Each-Way Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Rhythm to Spare – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.90.
Other Bets
Flemington Race 3 – Schism – 1 unit @ $4.00 to win.
Flemington Race 9 – Greviste – 1 unit @ $14. Jaminzah – 1 unit @ $14.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 9, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 12, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
If you prefer to hear the race by race thoughts with a bit more detail on runners I like, then watch the video below.
Flemington Race 1 – 1600m – Rivette Series Final
1. Soho Ruby: Ignore the last start when bloods were just not right and can bounce back from that run to what we saw two back at Sandown that was a strong win. Suited by a long straight.
2. Hussy’s Glow: Decent win two back at Morpetville but fairly beaten the last start on wetter track at Sandown. Needs to improve.
3. Alma’s Rossa: Strong run 3rd two back behind Pedrena and Samovare but clearly beaten the last start. Has to improve like a few others.
4. Ruby Sea: Won two in a row in strongly heading into this today and has a very nice turn of foot. Looks the real deal and can measure up here.
5. River Goddess: Every chance two back behind Ruby Sea and well beaten. Smashed them last start at Ballarat.
6. Special Diva: Horrible run first up and previous run to end last prep was average. Did win three back at Caulfield over 1400m but hasn’t shown much since. D Oliver takes the ride suggests has improved onwards and the step up to 1600m is key.
8. Sognani: Two runs this prep and has failed to place on either occasion in much easier. Has to improve.
9. Spanish Reef: Good win last start at Sandown from a perfect sit spot in run at odds. Can improve onwards.
10. Summer Glen: Back to Wang last start in easier company and couldn’t score a win after a no luck run two back at this course. Has some ability.
12. Nicodame: Hasn’t been close in recent occasions. Hard to have.
Comments: Can obviously find Ruby Sea here. Looks a very good type. Think Soho Ruby has to be forgiven for the last start run.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Ruby Sea to win
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m – VRC-CRV Cup Tour Trophy
1. Killarney Kid: Looked to have a nice run in him from the first up run and has taken a while to go through the motions. Big trial win and up to 2000m finally. Flew home late last start and looks set for the ‘final’ today.
2. Extra Zero: Strong run last start at the unsuitable Moonee Valley track and flew for 4th on the day. Back to Flemington where perfectly suited coming off a huge run and win two back. Flying. Big chance.
4. Lord Durante: Massive run 3rd last start at Caulfield in easier grade so to speak. Looks to be flying, but 12 runs 0 wins at this track is an issue for a horse that doesn’t win out of turn and not in this type of grade in the past.
5. Master Zephyr: Two solid trials heading into this coming off a disappointing 6th the previous start. Has to improve.
6. Show a Star: Ideal spot just off the speed last start at Moonee Valley and could only manage 3rd with the dream run. Less speed in this one so he will be able to control the speed out front and run on as fast as possible. Have to respect.
7. Duke of Ellington: Massive disappointment last start at course and distance in MUCH easier grade. Hard to see measuring up today back up in grade.
8. Hot Ruby: Horrible ride last start ridden cold and given no chance in a poorly graded race. Big step up in grade here and up to 2000m as well where does her best work. Even so, this is a hard grade of race to produce a win in. Does map well.
10. Pacodali: Not the worst runner going around with a win over Yogi on the board not bad at al for this import that should be wanting this distance. Big step up today but clearly Weir thinks he is good enough. Very short odds though.
Comments: Pacodali and Hot Ruby are both under the odds today. Show a Star gets it’s way from out the front but I couldn’t take that price on a Dunn front runner here. Lord Durante and Extra Zero are the value in the race while Killarney Kid has been clearly set for this.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Killarney Kid and Extra Zero.
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – Leilani Series Final
1. Tsaritsa: Very strong lead in run at course and distance when fairly beaten 2nd behind Tsaritsa with too big a weight on the day. Down 2kg today and maps for a poor spot if they don’t jump her away. Can win but has to run a blinder.
2. A Lotta Love: Just simply too far back last start in Mares grade off a slow tempo out front and can improve for that run. Up to 1400m is ideal and goes well at this track. Respect.
3. Vital Importance: Two horrible runs in a row. Needs to measure up to three back run and that is questionable over 1400m based on first up performance.
4. Hell or Highwater: Ran home well first up off what was a reasonable tempo and looked fat in the yard. Will be running very much better today as the stable believes she is ready to fire. Should push forward from the barrier today.
5. Schism: Course and distance winner last start at course and distance. Can run well again here even up in the weights.
6. Give Us a Go: Got back and ran on but just not good enough in 4th last start behind Schism. Respect she has the ability but not in this today.
7. Niminypiminy: Horrible run last start even when held up for runs. Better over a tighter track fmi).
8. Jacqui’s Joy: Hasn’t won in a long time since a F&M BM-70 grade race at Sandown. Go well on this type of track but others preferred on form.
9. Movie: Two runs in haven’t shown me anything to suggest a win is around the corner.
10. Phoenix Park: Sandown Mares BM-90 winner at big odds last start. Didn’t beat too much on the day and will need to improve again to place. A from the yard job.
11. Born Magic: BM-64 grade winner three back. Not for mine.
Comments: When all is said and done, Schism gets the dream run today sitting on and controlling the speed, it will take a very good one to run her down.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Schism – 1 unit @ $4.00 to win.
Flemington Race 4 – 1600m – Taj Rossi Series Final
1. Royal Symphony: Destroyed the field first up at Flemington from out the back running on strongly. Looks the absolute real deal.
2. Evil Cry: Sensational run last start at Caulfield when drove through on the rail and just found one too good in Lone Eagle. Can continue on and be competitive here… but certainly a query 1200 up to 1600m.
3. Madame Moustache: Been finding a few too good up in Sydney on all three runs this prep. Stable has an opinion of her but clearly, has to improve.
5. Paint the Stars: Fairly beaten first up at Caulfield and didn’t exactly show a massive amount. Up to 1600m probably better suited but clearly can’t have here.
6. Whoomph: Obviously ran a ripping race 2nd behind Royal Symphony gapping third, but didn’t get within the same postcode of Royal Symphony. Can run well but not winning.
7. Lady Seabring: Geelong maiden winner over 1300m last start in decent enough style. Massive improvement needed though.
8. Hard Ruler: Sale maiden winner by 0.1L. Good enough to run well but clearly can’t suggest here.
9. Anchor Bid: Beaten 7L last start behind Royal Symphony. Can’t have.
10. Bernie’s Tiger: Couldn’t win a maiden last start.
11. Studio City: Unplaced in a maiden last start.
12. Panda Wantzoff: Unplaced in a maiden from two runs to date.
13. Alloye: Unplaced three runs to date in maiden grade and handicap grade. No thanks.
Comments: What beats Royal Symphony? Nothing on paper. If i got $1.65 on the day i’d bet and hard.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Royal Symphony to win.
Flemington Race 5 – 1200m – A.R. Creswick Series Final
1. Ken’s Dream: Not in the best ground last start at Flemington, but seemed to be perfect in the yard and gave everything he had. Blinker son but I doubt that will be able to find the horse the extra lengths. Better weighted.
2. Invincible Al: Up in weights compared to last start when ran a huge race just too far back giving Overstep a length and that was the difference. Nolen takes the ride and he has ticked over very well in recent runs. Ideal up to the 1200m again and has a huge final 200m sectional when they run along. Big chance.
3. Overstep: Never suited by 1000m two back and step back up to 1100m and even 1200m today is the key for this horse to run well. Up in the weights again today is a negative but clearly well in overall. Inside barrier not sure how that will work today.
4. Highland Beat: Every chance the last few starts around corners and while he is a very good Colt, he has never measured up down the straight and was fairly beaten last start. I couldn’t have up against this lot.
5. Liberty Song: Continues to run very well. Great run last start at Moonee Valley but fairly beaten on the day by Revolving Door who has run well since. Has to improve significantly and 2 runs 0 places down the straight here.
6. Sacred Sham: Ran nicely in only fair ground last start at Flemington and beat home Ken’s Dream but didn’t get close to the others. Has to continue to improve. Did look good in the yard.
7. Fast Stryke: BM-58 grade winner… very strange placement can’t see it.
8. Mistoffelees: Led and fell away very quickly last start. Can’t see the step up to 1200m helping.
9. Hay Bale: Ran very well from on speed when pushed them along last start. Others preferred to win.
10. Woomera: Port Macquarie Maiden last prep.. first up this prep 2nd at Goulburn in a CL2… yep no thanks.
11. I’m Telling Ya: CL1 2nd on lead in. Not in this grade.
12. Mystified: Continues to run well this prep without having much luck. No excuses today down the straight and a win wouldn’t shock at all. Barrier only issue.
Comments: The only reason Invincible Al was beatel last start by Overstep was the barrier. She came from Barrier 1 and had to work all the way over and position behind Overstep to get the right run and it told late when just not being able to make up that extra length. Today, Invincible Al maps perfectly from Barrier 7 while the clear danger in Overstep gets the horror Barrier 1 draw. Luke Nolen gets the ride and I reckon he knows what he is doing down this straight.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Invincible Al – 1.75 units Each-Way @ $4.80/$1.95
Flemington Race 6 – 2600m – Banjo Paterson Series Final
1. Nordic Flight: Ran very well last start when just held up for runs and was too far back. Top weight again certainly hurts his chances in this race but he can run nicely.
2. Cougar Express: Strangely didn’t lead last start and suffered for it. Expect them to try and lead today with Super Haze and Grandduke and to push the tempo.
4. Charlevoix: Got the perfect run just off the speed last start at course and distance and blinkers on won nicely. Others had to cover a lot more ground. Will need to work a lot harder today to get a similar run.
5. Hursley: Won’t be left wondering with speed expected to be injected into the race today. Had his chances last start but do prefer him over Charlevoix at the weights.
6. Rose of Virginia: Horrible last start at Moonee Valley for no real reason as they did run it along. Previous run is good form behind Gallic Chieftain and was a good run. Can run well up in distance.
7. Shakopee: Respectable run last start but up in grade found a few too good back to the dryer tracks. I can’t see the improvement to win but can place.
8. Bullish Stock: Massive run last start when up from 1800 to 2520m and covered a huge amount of ground throughout the race. Nicely weighted in comparison today and should get a nice enough run from midfield today with a positive jockey change. Looks the winner.
9. Super Haze: Loves to not win this horse. Solid run last start but had every chance in easier. Hard to have.
10. Cinnamon Carter: Certainly wanting this type of distance but not good enough to win in this grade. Take on.
11. Wells: Strangely been kept off the hurdles so far this prep and I can’t figure out why. Obviously not going well enough at home?
12. Granddukeoftuscany: Every chance the past start at Sandown over 2400m and just not good enough. Others preferred even if they lead today. Blinkers on the only query for mine to see if the horse finally fires.
13. Transfer Allowance: Nice enough run three back in easier grade but runs since shown not good enough for this.
14. Jimivag: BM-64 grade winner last start. Huge jump in class big ask. No thanks.
Comments: Very very very keen on Bullish Stock who looks perfectly suited here today. Yes, we may very well have to sit 3-wide with cover but that isn’t a total negative for me today, the horse will be rock hard fit and I have the horse rated favourite in the race on what I saw last start and the weight turn arounds.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: Bullish Stock – 3.5 units Each-Way @ $9.50/$3.20
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – VRC-CRV Winter Championship Series Final
1. Amovatio: Huge forgive run and blackbooker last start at Moonee Valley when ran on very well and was going to win if got a run for mine. Top weight but clearly well in back at Flemington.
3. Tshahitsi: Ran very well with top weight last start at course over 1400m. Step up to 1600m very questionable as the horse hasn’t been seen over the 1600m.. Has a very strong final 400m which is the key. Have to work to lead today.
4. Mihany: Two runs this prep and both have been terrible. A month between runs but I’d struggle to suggest the turn around in form compared to form shown last prep.
5. Rhythm to Spare: Was flying last start at Moonee Valley when fell into the back of horses going backwards and was never a shot. Maps to get midfield off the rails and have every chance.
6. Petrology: Got the ideal run on the late in the day slingshot at Moonee Valley last start. Continues to run well and will run well again, but this is the toughest ask all prep.
8. Sovereign Nation: Got the win two back at course over 1400m before being widest last start and not being able to make up enough ground beaten 5L. Has to improve.
9. Count da Vinci: Three lead in trials that have all been serious trials and serious wins over good distances. G3 Hobart Cup winner over further last prep and 2nd to Big Duke in the Launceston Cup. Goes well at 1600m but better over further. Still, have to consider a chance.
10. Loyalty Man: Ran nicely enough 3rd fairly beaten by 3L to Tshahitsi two back and then horrible last start. One to forget for mine.
11. Victory Downs: Solid enough for lines beat some decent types in the Swan Hill Cup from a gun spot in the race. This is much harder but not without a chance.
14. Strike Force: Very strong lead in win last start at Sale coming off a very nice run at Sandown. Looks well in here at weights and could threaten.
15. Cosmic Lights: Got an ideal spot in running last start and just didn’t have the breaks come his way in a sit and sprint home late. Certainly suited well enough here but giving weight to Coldstone for the loss. Respect but others preferred.
16. Typhoon Jolie: Not the worst run last start at Flemington behind Cannyescent but others preferred.
17. Riyadh: Got the suck run on the inside last start at Flemington and got the win. Big improvement needed to measure up here.
Comments: Going wide in the Quaddie but i’m very keen to be on Rhythm to Spare E/W getting the ideal race with speed on our front set up for the tougher stayers late which is just what this horse is!
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 9, 14
Strategy: Rhythm to Spare – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.90.
Flemington Race 8 – 1200m – All Victorian Sprint Series Final
1. Tashbeeh: On speed first up 50 days ago when ran in one of the fastest sprint races we have seen all year and got the job done in the right side of the track. Tried and Tired has franked the form since and it’s reasonable to think Tashbeeh is well enough placed again here.
2. Riziz: Looked horrible in the yard last start at course over the 1100m when ran 2nd last and was horrible. Better jockey onboard but would need to present significantly better in the yard.
3. Husson Eagle: Flew home for 2nd behind Ability last start at course over 1100m. Was a big run on the day and looks well enough suited again today at equal weights. Have to respect.
4. Duke of Brunswick: First up for 130 days and clearly has gone better as he has got into preps for mine. Last 2 wins have been over further and never won down the straight. Tough ask first up.
5. Ruettiger: Horrible first up and then ran as expected second up off the slow pace put on out front. Certainly, can return to best here but is he really good enough to best all of these?
6. Rough Justice: Ran very well from on speed last start over the 1100m but was no match for Ability or Husson Eagle. Similar weight today and has to improve to win.
7. Ability: Two runs two wins this prep and continues to go through the grades with flying colours. Last start clearly the best horse in the race and even held up for runs still got the win. Dunn onboard the only negative with Williams suspected. Maps behind the leaders in the race.
8. Camdus: Has won previously down the straight. Good win two back at MV and ran nicely off a slower pace last start. A good type but this is the testing material today.
9. Don Doremo: 2500m horse. No.
11. Play Master: Nice enough run in poor going last start at Flemington and was held up for runs. Previous run was pretty decent also. Up to 1200m best distance. Win wouldn’t shock but not for mine.
Comments: Wide open race. Tashbeeh a solid chance here and is under the radar. Ability the clear top pick but very short. Fast Cash and Husson Eagle look the main dangers.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 7
Strategy: Back Ability and Tashbeeh
Flemington Race 9 – 1600m – Silver Bowl Series Final
1. Urban Ruler: Drawn wide again today but I reckon they will probably have to ride the horse on speed. Certainly a nice type and stays at 1600m. Didn’t get a lot of fitness improvement from the run last start an issue as top weight.
2. Greviste: Good run last start at course and distance but they just went too slowly. Expect the speed to be on here and will be hitting the line hard.
4. What a Shock: Looked great in the yard last start at course and distance and ran very well from a slow run on speed. Can measure up.
5. Cannot Be Serios: Nice enough run last start at Caulfield and will improve up in distance. Respect his ability.
6. Jaminzah: Beat My Paisann two back at Sandown. Got too far back last start off the slow speed at Flemington last start. Better barrier today and can run well.
8. Willi Willi: Bendigo winner last start as favourite but didn’t beat much. Has to improve.
9. Atlantic Express: Good run from on speed last start at Flemington with the slow tempo. This looks much harder.
10. Deadly Choices: Maiden winner before failing in easier grade than this last start. No thanks.
11. Simply Splashing: Couldn’t place at Bendigo last start in much easier. Need to find much improvement.
12. Trump This: Not the worst horse going around but clearly wasn’t suited by the sit sprint last start from too far back. Could surprise from a good barrier today.
13. Balcazar: Couldn’t place the last three starts in easier company and doesn’t show us the signs of winning.
14. First Approach: Not the worst run last start and good maiden win prior. Still, has to improve loads.
15. Serveur: Hayes runner that got a Synthetic win and failed the next two starts. Not for me.
16. Kaptive Hero: Went well behind What a Shock last start at the Rat and was 3L off Greviste at MV the run prior. Place best.
17. Snipfit: Bm-64 grade winner only just last start beating some okay types. Others look better.
Comments: Urban Ruler looks too short for mine while My Paisaan also looks a bit short. I’m expecting the tempo to be on and that will suit Greviste and Jaminzah from back running on.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 12, 14
Strategy: Greviste – 1 unit @ $14. Jaminzah – 1 unit @ $14.
