Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington on 7 October 2017. We are blessed with a very competitive card, and of course, the Queen of the Turf, Winx will be on track. Expecting the track to play very fair throughout with a bit of rain around making it a nice even surface. Hoping to get a few bets up early on the card and finishing off strongly with some big value runners. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Speith – 4 units @ $2.65 to win. Silent Sedition – 2.5 units @ $4.40 to win
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Main Stage 1.5 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.62
Best Value
Flemington Race 9 – Tashbeeh – 1 unit Each-Way @ $17/$5.30
Other Bets
Flemington Race 8 – Prompt Response – 1.5 units @ $7.50 to win. Now or Later – 1 unit @ $14.00 to win
Flemington Race 6 – Watchmespin – 1 unit Each-Way @ $34/$9.50
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 9, 10, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 6, 8, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – Maribyrnong Trial Stakes
First 2YO race of the year means a ‘no form and no bet race’ too many unseen runs and limited trial form to go off.
The one thing I will say is the McEvoy runner ‘Sunlight‘ looks the real deal this early on and looks as big as a 3YO and trialed very well. Expect the money to come.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Sunlight to win
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Antler Luggage Stakes
1. Taking Aim: Strong run first up in G3 company before ran another solid race from back in the Danehill. Has to be respected from a quality stable going through the ranks. Suited up to 1400m at this track.
2. Sirconni: Got away with murder last start out front at Caulfield but won’t get that today with Plutocracy expected to at least push them along somewhat. Needs to improve but still can go well.
3. Chauffeur: Get back run on type that ran very well first up behind Pariah but failed to match the best of them the next two starts. Failed to place two runs over this distance in the past.
4. Plutocracy: Ran very well first up over the 1100m before failing last start when well in the yard at course over 1200m. Up to 1400m but holds queries.
5. Can’t Remember: Synthetic winner last start in maiden grade. Huge questions to be asked in this grade. Not for mine.
6. Icon of Dubai: Well bred High Chap type. Maiden winner by 6L at Kembla Grange as $1.30 fav – fairly beaten previous start at Canterbury in a maiden. Has ability but certainly has to be at top here.
7. Esperance: Scratched from the Guineas prelude to tackle the 1400m at Flemington. Top class horse heading towards the 1400-1600m distances. Run well here from a good barrier.
8. Snitzepeg: 4th last start at Flemington behind some nice types in much easier. Big step up.
9. Bravo Tango: Two starts two wins in easier grades than this on wetter surfaces. Testing material.
10. Hulme: Eye-catching run held up for runs first up at course and distance when out the back and ran on super. Looks well suited.
11. Rellson: Wang maiden winner over 1400m as $1.50 fav last start beating some very average types. Has to improve.
Comments: Taking Aim is well placed here today while Icon of Dubai could measure up. I think Sirconni is under the odds back at Flemington. The two standouts on form for me are Esperance who looks very well in here, mapping very well. Hulme is the value runner in the race, a horse that could very well be anything this prep on what I’ve seen.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back both Esperance and Hulme.
Flemington Race 3 – 1800m – UCI Stakes
1. Cliff’s Edge: Didn’t think he would handle the 1600m last prep but he paraded like a beast and had the race run to suit. Still very much an unknown up to 1800m.
2. Silent Command: Listed ghrade winner in the Morphetville Guineas over 1600m on a soft track. Respect his ability.
3. Eshtiraak: Held up for runs last start at Caulfield but then lacked dash through the line. May be better suited up to 1800m today. Have to respect him at least.
4. Sunquest: Continues to run well without winning this prep. Another that makes the jump up to 1800m without having a solid hit out. Has to improve but looks suited by the track.
5. Padraig: Horrible last start even though he was 3-wide the trip, was beaten a long way out. May just be looking for a tougher tempo and further?
6. Animalia: CL2 Newcastle winner heading into this. Big jump up in grade but looks a likely type to improve.
7. Aberro: Two average runs in a row beaten a long way. Not one I could have at this stage.
8. Give: Nice run from out back at Caulfield when not really suited overlal but still ran well enough. Need to improve.
9. Main Stage: Kilmore maiden winner before a very good 2nd behind Tavistock Abbey last start. 4L to 3rd.
10. Il Divo: Geelong maiden winner before failing to measure up to the grade last start. Not convinced for me.
11. Weather With You: Strong step up last start when wide from a long way to go but never got close to the winners. Has to improve but going the right way for the Derby.
12. Into Rio: Out the back and ran on okay last start. This is much harder – a lot to prove.
13. Circomo: Couldn’t win a maiden as favourite last start. Did gap third but this is a step up and non-winner.
14. Johnny Vinko: Concussion plates on. Hasn’t won to date but did run 3L behind Tavistock Abbey.
15. Basanite: Benalla 4th last start in maiden company. Step up in distance but surely can’t see it here.
16. Coral Coast: Maiden winner two back and then 3rd in G3 (beaten 5L) last start. Would need to improve but has to be respected.
Comments: Tough race with a load of first time 1800m horses including the well mapped Cliff’s Edge and Sunquest. Main Stage will be pushing forward from out wide and proved to be the real deal for mine last start at course and distance and has a rock solid run under the belt.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Main Stage 1.5 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.62
Flemington Race 4 – 1200m – Gilgai Stakes
1. The Quarterback: G2 winner two preps back and is a G1 winner at track. Two runs last prep very average at best. Trial was okay leading in. Loves the track and straight.
2. Ulmann: Wangoom winner last prep on heavy and then G3 3rd before failing in the Straddy. Goes well at course down the straight but very best runs in past may have been over further.
3. Keen Array: Huge disappointment run last start when showed no dash at Caulfield. Never won at track but looks the type that could be suited by the straight race today. Have to forgive last start.
4. Spieth: Good return in G3 first up when 2nd. Goes well down the straight and has to be massively respected here today. Looks well suited.
5. Malibu Style: Will improve onwards from that Caulfield Run last start and handles the straight fine without having won down it yet. Respect his class.
6. Silent Sedition: G1 William Reid winner last prep after a 2nd in the G1 Coolmore and winning the G3 Mannerism. Goes well first up and is clearly the horse to beat here.
7. Bons Away: Four wins in a row including a very strong Listed grade win last start. First time down the straight a negative but has to clearly be respected.
8. Land of Plenty: Continues to run well without winning this prep. Comes out of a G1 when wide no cover but still ran well. Respect and can run well.
9. Sold for Song: 4th in the Tatts Tiara to end last prep. Another with solid potential if trained on.
Comments: Two standouts on the form in Speith and Silent Sedition while Bons Away, Land of Plenty and The Quarterback look the blowout chances.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Speith – 4 units @ $2.65 to win. Silent Sedition – 2.5 units @ $4.40 to win
Flemington Race 5 – 2000m – Seppelt Turnbull Stakes
1. Humidor: Certainly a good win last start over 1600m and step up to 2000m ideal. Best seen off brutal tempos out front and I doubt Assign will be pushing them along that strongly today. I can’t see him winning here but he is one of two in the place chances.
2. Winx: It’s Winx, the highest rated turf horse in the world up to the Cox Plate distance today.
3. Ventura Storm: Absolutely flying right now. Can run 2nd here.
4. Assign: Horrible first up. G3 winner last prep over this distance on wetter. Herbert Power win the prior prep was good also. Will lead.
5. Magicool: Hahaha.
6. Sir Isaac Newton: Strange horse and hard to catch. One paced no turn of foot needs out and out staying tempo.
7. Skyfire: LOL.
Comments: Winx wins.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Trifecta 2-1,3-1,3 ($2 for 100%)
Flemington Race 6 – 1600m – TAB Edward Maniford Stakes
1. Pure Scot: Good win last prep at Caulfield over 1200m but is a very strange pattern horse. Two runs this prep and both poor.
2. I’ll Have a Bit: Nice enouhg run last start behind Leather’n’lace but was never really a chance throughout. Best was good enough to win a G3 last prep.
3. Anchor Bid: The bubble burst last start over the 1800m at course when just didn’t have the gas to run them down. Back to 1600m today instead of upwards where we are expecting her to go.
4. Leather’n’lace: Three good wins in a row and last start was able to control the speed on a day when it suited to lead like that and won well. More speed chances today and she could take a sit or very well lead.
5. Watchmespin: Very solid win two back at Caulfield before running home very well last start covering a load of ground. Expect she will be much better suited here and looks an out and out 1600m sprint home horse that will be well suited here. Big chance at odds.
6. Blondie: Average run at very best last start at Caulfield behind Leather’n’lace. Has to improve.
7. Banish: 3rd last start behind Leather’n’lace from back running on well. Has to improve here.
8. Angelic Spirit: On speed off the slow tempo last start and kicked on okay but didn’t show a great deal. Has to improve with a bigger tempo.
9. Uptown Gal: Let down huge last the widest last start going past Banish at the line and on breeding should be well enough suited up in distance again. Barrier a huge concern.
10. Pageantry: Three runs this prep and not been close to a win on all three occasions. Up in distance but untested.
11. Judy in Disguise: Had her chances two back at Caulfield on speed and found one too good. Can run well again here from on speed but has to improve.
12. Bring Me Roses: Morphetville Guineas 2nd. Solid enough run but this is another level again. Yet to win.
13. Remember the Name: 3YO grade winner over 1400m. Measured up okay enough last prep. Needs to improve.
14. Temple of Bel: Maiden winner in decent enough fashion last start but this will be a bigger test for sure.
15. Snogging: Maiden winner by 4L at Tatura in a fairly average field. That being said, it was a nice win and times were sound. Respect.
16. Pres de Toi: Surprised last start with a big run in a slowly run race from on speed. This is much harder.
17. Hiyaam: Maiden winner first up in a slowly run 1400m. An okay type but needs to improve.
Comments: This looks a tough race on paper and it will work out that way also. At the prices, I have to have something on Watchmespin knowing it will finish off strongly.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 9
Strategy: Watchmespin – 1 unit Each-Way @ $34/$9.50
Flemington Race 7 – 2500m – The Bart Cummings
1. Almandin: Last 5 starts over 2200m have been wins. Stays at Flemington over 2500m and should be improving onwards once again. Super well weighted here and hard to beat. Barrier only negative.
2. Tally: Going well this prep and step back to Flemington and over this distance ideal, but needs the run today for mine over the distance. Can run well.
3. Harlem: 2000m up to 2500m off a barn storming win in the naturalism. Just here for a rock hard fit run at 2500m today to have him topped off for the Caulfield Cup in two weeks time. Will be ridden back from the barrier today i’d expect and eyes are all on next start, not wanting a penalty.
4. Amelie’s Star: Been doing good stuff this prep without winning. Step up to this distance a big unknown but i’d expect she has the ability to run it out. Testing material here at the distance.
5. Broadside: 3L 5th in the metrop last start. Previous start 3rd in G3. Going well at this distance with a G3 win this prep. Speed will be on and this will be a true test for him here.
6. Kinema: Horrible in two runs to date this prep. Step up in distance should suit but just don’t know. Hard to have.
7. Pentathlon: 4th in a Handicap over 2000m before heading back over here. Hard to suggest.
8. Vengeur Masque: Ran pretty okay first up and last start wide no cover in the Naturalism. I’d be surprised.
10. Kellstorm: Best seen in the past on wetter tracks. 5 starts 0 places on Good. Does stay.
11. Yogi: Very strong run last start at course and distance from very far back in run. Barrier doesn’t help today and will be getting back running on again.
13. Granddukeoftuscany: Pacemaker in the race. Ran on okay last start from on speed and will run much better today for the run.
Comments: Almandin won’t get the dream run like last start but probably won’t need it. Somehow finds himself better at the weights today than last start – at the prices it’s hard to resist – Harlem main danger.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3
Strategy: Almandin to win
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – Blazer Stakes
1. Prompt Response: Comes out of the hot race at Caulfield from just off the pace first up to miss by 0.6L. Looks well suited here today up to the 1400m which is more suitable G1 2nd end of last prep. Stable flying. Good barrier.
2. French Emotion: Disappointing last prep to not go through the grades and progress like early days suggested she might. Goes well at track and distance but tough ask first up in this grade from barrier.
3. Kenedna: Looks a nice type but clearly best runs in the past were 1800m+ with a G2 win over 2000m on the cards. Lame first up. No.
4. Sword of Light: Got away with murder out the front last start at Flemington and won well in G2 class. Has to run another top effort today to figure up. More speed in this.
5. Eckstein: Sydney/QLD mare down to compete here after rearing at the start first up and going back and failing to sprint with Redzel but only beaten 3.5L. G3 winner on heavy last prep. Best seen on wetter the issue.
6. Oregon’s Day: Horrible run last start mucus EIPH. Previous start won nicely beating Swampland. 20+ days between runs should be better but certainly query from barrier 19.
7. Euro Angel: Horrible last start in the G2 Shannon showing no turn of foot. Previous starts well beaten as well. Not sure what to make of her.
9. Missrock: Missed by 0.5L last start at Caulfield covering a load extra ground than 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Was certainly a run of the race and she is going very well this prep. Query over the step up to 1400m on what she has been doing over 1200m this prep, but she is placed over 2000m so probably finds more now.
10. Ellicazoom: Wide no cover first up at odds when ran a brilliant 7th beaten 1.65L. Can improve loads here today back up to 1400m where has never missed a place. Goes well at track also. Good barrier.
11. Merriest: Easy watch last start in BM-90 mares grade when led them around and won very well. Looked a bit short of a run late in the piece over the 1400m so I’ve got queries over her here at Flemington.
12. Payroll: Been campaigning up in Queensland and last prep won a nice listed grade over 1600m. First up well beaten with top weight from out back. Better suited back here but clearly has to be at top.
13. Schism: Three runs this prep and she just hasn’t looked right all along. Took a sit last start when could have tried to lead with the speed on in race. Has to improve on those runs but does have ability.
14. Now or Later: 4th last prep behind Sovereign Nation in handicap grade. First up was a nice enough run 0.9L 6th. Need to improve for that run but is a nice enough type on G3 1600m win back at Leopardstown in previous preps and twice 45th in G1 company over 1600m. Never won first up in the past but has a very strong 2nd up record.
15. Baby Don’t Cry: Ian Reid winner at Wagga two back before 4-wide no cover last start forgive run at Caulfield. Tough ask never won at this distance or in the city.
16. Petition: Strong run first up and proved to be going well enough last start at Caulfield when sat off the leaders but just missed. Harder tempo expected here but she clearly is going well enough like the stable is.
17. Give Us a Go: Been up a long time this prep and continues to run well without placing with 4 runs in a row running 4th at odds. Back in class here from G2 company coming off a strong run when made to go wide.
18. Written Era: Good heavy track win first up and has been running on well since. G3 Cockram run an eye-catching race with the Flying Jess and Savanna Amour form holding up. Last start she failed to fire on a Good 4 track which looked ideal. On the previous runs, i’m going to have to take her on at the distance.
19. Pure Pride: Two starts this prep and has been well and truly beaten on both occasions.
Comments: Certainly an interesting race with several strong form lines to consider. Prompt Response is the clear top pick on form coming off a very strong on speed run at Caulfield and the step up to 1400m today from a very good barrier. Now or Later is the clear value in the race having run 4th in G1 company over this distance twice overseas and boasting a strong 2nd up record… expect the horse to go to the next level today.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 9, 10, 14
Strategy: Prompt Response – 1.5 units @ $7.50 to win. Now or Later – 1 unit @ $14.00 to win
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Paris Lane Handicap
1. Burning Front: Never won at track from 0 attempts in the past and won just 1 of 6 second up. Was very poor first up. I’d be surprised to see the win here.
2. Good Project: Two runs this prep and both have been disappointing. Never won from 10 starts at distance in the past. Hard to see.
3. Dibayani: Only fair run first up over the 1400m and stays there to day. Goes MUCH better second up having never missed a place.
4. Charmed Harmony: Has been well backed here today. Has won twice in the past here and likes the distance. Back to dryer track today. Will be leading.
5. Observational: Five runs last prep for two wins in listed and Group 3 company over further distances. Never won over this distance in the past and 5 starts 0 places at track. Goes okay enough first up but more to come.
6. Tashbeeh: Listed winner first up this prep and has failed to fire since. Was an impressive win first up. Goes well at this distance and loves this track. Finds a good track and looks well suited and over the odds with speed on.
8. New Tipperary: Pride stable runner second up today off a nice enough first up run 2.9L behind Comin Through and Tom Melbourne. Back in class here and same distance. Maps well enough and Oliver onboard.
9. Master Reset: Cranbourne Cup winner, Master Reset failed to fire last prep. Trial only fair leading into this… tough to see the first up win but does go well first up.
10. Royal Tudor: Three runs this prep. Failed to fire in G1 class last start while didn’t go great the previous start either. Good first over 1100m…. but hasn’t shown me enough over the 1400m this prep to consider.
11. Mongolian Wolf: May just not be that good and found the easiest G3 of the year at Randwick first up last prep? Probably needs further and easier?
12. Wyndspelle: Flew home from out back last start to run 2nd behinds Sirconni out sprinting So Si Bon who has gone on to place third in a G1. Barrier doesn’t help but will be going back and running on strongly.
13. Pure Pride: Two runs this prep for average at best results. Much harder here and not one for mine.
14. Lovani: Went too slow on speed last start at Flemington and was really a terrible ride when you consider her best. Stays 1400m and will get a much stronger tempo on.
15. Pay Up Bro: Finished off well enough last start but others better considered.
16. Saint Valorem: Rode for luck last start at Caulfield and didn’t find a huge deal of it. Out back run on type… not sure in this grade.
Comments: As the odds suggest this is a strong wide open race. Wyndspelle is the clear class runner of the race but I’ve got concerns about the horse getting so far back in such a wide race. The value in the race and value of the day is Tashbeeh who will bounce back here and run a brilliant race from the inside barrier with speed on out front.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 6, 8, 12
Strategy: Tashbeeh – 1 unit Each-Way @ $17/$5.30
