Welcome to The Profits preview from Flemington on 6 May 2017. The Bool carnival is over for another year and it was a Weir domination. We didn’t win for the Carnival, recording a loss, but we did recoup a little profit on the final day. Backing up after a big winner last Saturday we have a lot to prove and there are some very strong chances on the cards with some nice value on offer. I won’t be as active on Twitter throughout the day as normal due to being at a Betfair training session all Saturday. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Zasorceress – 3 units @ $2.5 to win
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 1 – Extra Zero – 1.5 Units Each-Way @ $21/$5.25
Best Value Bets
Flemington Race 2 – Mujadale – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.35 Each-Way
Flemington Race 7 – Zamzam – 1 unit Each-Way @ $19/$5.30
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 9, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 12, 14, 16
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
For those after my picks in the SA features
Morphetville Race 7
Sheidel and English. Also a spec bet on Legless Veuve.
Morphetville Race 6
Kenedna and Sword of Light.
Flemington Race 1 – 1800m – Chariman’s Club Handicap
1. Articus: G3 and Listed winner from over in Germany, but his ratings coming out here were certainly lower than most imports. As expected first up over 1400m he wasn’t great over the 1400m and wants further. Best runs in the past have been seen on Good tracks and if well backed today then take note as this distance is suitable. 2/2 second up.
2. Master of Arts: 3rd in the Adelaide Cup last start coming off a 2600m G3 win. Two very solid runs over 2000m this prep at course behind nice types on Goldstream, Chance ot Dance, Kourkam etc… but this is back to a distance that is just below what he has been aimed at recently and he may just be lacking that late dash.
3. Extra Zero: Skipped the jumps at the bool to stay on the flat after some promising runs in the Wangaratta Cup and at Morphetville this prep. Was absolutely flying in the Easter Cup last start when just found no luck in the running and was blocked for runs. Looks very well weighted here. At the odds looks like they missed the run!? G1 placed here over 2000m.
4. Hazzabeel: Three runs this prep and has continued to go up in distance without impressing. Hard to sugges ton last run when fairly beaten behind Sadaqa.
5. Longeron: Three runs this prep and hasn’t shown alot in similar races. Has to improve significantly onwards again here.
6. Sadaqa: Continues to win and win well this prep. Last start at course and distnace with a low weight got away with the ideal run out front and put them to the sword. Similar weight today and will be hard to run down. Only query is the other speed runners in the race.
7. Dubai Escapade: WA import that ran nicely in Group class over further than this in the past. Always a few steps below the grade though.
8. Show A Star: Won at course over 1600m getting away with some easy sectionals early and finishing off late. Last start in harder company didn’t get the lead and found that level too tough. Has to improve.
9. Haradafull: Slowly going through his paces this prep and heading onwards with fitness. Last start 1400m heavy 8 ran well 2nd behind In Fairness. Best in the past has been over 2400m type ranges and certainly will measure up here.
10. War Legend: 1400m winner first up. Strong runs the last two before average last start in the Easter Cup. This distance may just be a bit beyond what he is wanting in this class of race.. but he certainly has ability on his best.
11. Alrouz: Looked well out of his class here. BM-64 grade winner heading into this. Tough to see here.
12. Night Sight: Two wins heading into this in maiden and BM-64 grade. Struggle to suggest the place.
Comments: War Legend looks well under the odds for me here and Sadaqa is hard to trust with all the speed around in the race early on pushing them on. Articus is drifting and so is Master of Arts as expected.. this is a wide open race and the price on Extra Zero is just crazy today off that last start run and i’m very keen to have a bet.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Extra Zero – 1.5 Units Each-Way @ $21/$5.25
Flemington Race 2 – 2800m – Vintage Crop Handicap
1. Purple Smile: Ignore last start on a soft track and in much harder than this. Certainly likes the distance. Previously Adelaide Cup winner. Has to improve though obviously on current form.
2. Mujadale: Been flying around over 2000m-3200m the past few starts and back to 2000m at Stawell sat just off the speed and got into it well and won with lengths to spare. Previous runs had a lot of merit and this race lacks a speed runner so there is every chance he can lead them around at his own pace and step up the final 1200m tempo as he likes.
3. De Little Engine: Hasn’t won in a fair while but continues to run well. Last start very good 2nd behind Boom time beating home Hans Holbein in a slowishly run race. Covered a load of ground. Back up to 2800m at at Flemington obviously a bonus. Have to respect but not sure they will run it on fast enough.
4. Lucques: Well beaten 2nd behind Hans Holbein last start at course over 2500m. Previous runs were average at best and fairly beaten by others in this race. Has to improve onwards again. May try and sit on speed.
5. Refectory: 4000m winner last start at Caulfield and skipped the bool hurdles to run here today which looks a strange move for mine with a lack of speed in the race if Lucques doesn’t run and push them on out front.
6. See Line Woman: 3400m winner in easier grade last start. Back to 2800m. Obviously has some ability on the last start win… but this looks much tougher.
7. Wells: Strangely not over the jumps at the Bool and instead running around here over 2800m. Well beaten the past two starts and not sure he is going well enough. Never won on Good.
8. Unique Assassin: Fairly beaten last start at course over 2500m. Lucques beat him well and hard to see a place here.
9. O’Ceirins Secret: Been going over the Hurdles this prep and won a very solid maiden behind He’s A Genius. Certainly gets the distances but ran on Thursday so doubt it goes around here.
10. Valhalla Princess: Two wins in a row in 58 and 64 grade. Obviously well out of class here.
Comments: A race where there are several runners i’m willing to take on. Lucques form just din’t good enough for me to take the $4.8 and De Little Engine may find a slowly run race settling out the back. Mujadale is the horse off a very solid run that i’m keen to back. May very well get the lead and have no one take him on. If not, i’m happy with a sit also today!
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Mujadale – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.35 Each-Way
Flemington Race 3 – 1100m – Phar Lap Club Plate
1. Freeze Over: Very solid first up win at Sandown in hot time but last start went around favourite at Morphetville and folded in very quickly in the straight. Needs to return to the form of two back.
2. I’ll have a Bit: Solid Heavy trial at Cranbourne heading into this but will certainly need to improve onwards and upwards to measure up here based on previous prep form.
3. Hot Girl Wanted: Two runs last prep for two 4ths. Wasn’t a bad run to end last prep behind Time Awaits. Has to improve again up to 1100m.
4. Black and Tan: Maiden 2nd last start heading into this. Form doesn’t look close to this grade.
5. Amastryker: Another horse that has failed to win a maiden heading into this today. Up against some top class horses.
6. Tuskar Brook: Maiden third first up before held up for runs last start at Sandown in a similar race to this. Looks to be going well.
7. Sheezdashing: Didn’t look great in a maiden last start at Seymour. Have to take on.
8. Booker: First run today. Has been fancied in betting. Watch for backing on the day.
9. Elle Gagne: Good Cranbourne trial heading into this. Looks a talented type and will be well backed.
10. Elraazy: Two lead in trials. Hasn’t blown me away. Has to be a good type to measure up here.
11. Fern: Only a fair trial leading into this. One i’m not keen on.
12. Miss Skeptical: Never really had a shot at them at Caulfield last start. Wasn’t backed last start.
13. River Jewel: Another Hayes runner. Looks very well bred and is their fancied runner. Respect.
14. Schumer: Strong jump out form heading into this and looks the goods. Ran the quickest time of the morning and stable obviously have a big opinion. Went up overs and has been backed.
15. Temple of Bel: Only a fair trial leading in. Happy to risk.
16. Vivendi: Unfancied in the market and unseen.
Comments: Not a race I can get involved in.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Back Hot Girl Wanted and Schumer.
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – Comedy King Handicap
1. Rock Forthe Ladies: Randwick winner in the past. First up run didn’t measure up to harder than this. Have to respect here.
2. Tshahitsi: Ran very well first up at Caulfield behind Miss Gunpowder. Will improve up to 1400m here and looks well placed with the 3kg claim.
3. Kaniana: G3 winer over 1600m on soft track last prep at Moonee Valley. Two runs in this prep and both were really horrible. Has to have trained on.
4. Nevis: Two ‘bad’ runs in a row heading into this. Back in grade again and in distance with 3kg claim.. will be attempting to run them on out front… best form is good enough and clearly stable believes they have it.
5. Here to There: Strong win last start in Adelaide against a quality group of runners including Royal Rumble. Looks well placed here today and can run well.
6. Rose of Virginia: Needs further on what we have seen in the past.
7. Coldstone: French import. Very strong run 2nd behind Master Reset last prep over 1600m. Has the ability to run well here first up nicely weighted.
8. Inspector: Ran horrible last start at course over 1200m on the heavy track. Measured up in the newmarket three back and ran very well in G3 class four back. Win wouldn’t be a total shock at the low weight here.
9. The New Boy: Got a win two back in nice company at Geelong. Always seems to run well here but once again up against it at the class.
10. Pure Pride: Two very solid runs this prep at Flemington and then failed on the soft at Randwick. Well suited here. Ran 5th in a G1 over 1600m here last prep. Clearly good enough.
11. Deja Blue: Wide no cover the whole trip last start at Caulfield on the SOft 5 and finished off strongly without finding much as expected with that run.
12. Give Us A Go: Strong win last start at Bendigo in the Gold Bracelet but failed last start in the G3. Better than that run.
13. Orient Line: Held up for runs two back at bendigo and then ran well 4th last start from out the back. Continues to run well this prep and is looking for a strong speed here which he gets.
Comments: Not a race I could be betting confidently into today as it’s wide open! Nevis and Coldstone are the two i’d want to take at odds. Orient Line looks value but gets back and will have to make up a load of ground again. Tshahitsi looks a good type and so does Here to There. Inspector has claims and so does Deja Blue, Give Us a Go and obviously Pure Pride.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Back Nevis and Coldstone.
Flemington Race 5 – 1200m – Indian Summer Handicap
1. Savaju: Won last start at Bendigo over 1100m in fine enough style. Previous start ran well 2nd to Sebring Sun in harder class. Last two runs at Flemington were only average. Does handle the straight.
2. Overstep: Three solid runs this prep leading into this but hasn’t had the ability to win. Last start held up for runs finished off solidly. Back to Flemington where ran well two back.
3. Mandee: Two runs this prep in easier grades and hasn’t been close to a win. One I really want to take on.
4. Sneakers: Won very well last start at Sandown in easier grade. Expected to take the step up again here.
5. Miss Lano: Pakenham winner last start on a soft track. Previous runs suggest a big improvement is needed here.
6. Summer Glen: Maiden winner last prep and then ran okay at Caulfield behind Hear the Chant in G3 company. First up today but has some ability.
7. Divine Quality: Maiden winner. Was quite a nice win for the Griffiths runner at Bendigo and the time was sound. Looks to have ability but this is another step up. Weighted okay.
8. Sprung Dancing: BM-64 winner four back. Last start on heavy beaten F&M BMt64 last start. Has to improve to place.
9. Font Magica: Cranbourne maiden winner last start. Big jump in grade here off the two previous runs. Has to improve.
11. Sallybrook: Maiden winner on heavy last start when very short in the market. Well fancied horse but clearly has to improve again.
12. Take a Selfie: Maiden winner two back but failed to handle the heavy last start. Has some ability but testing material here.
13. Silver Pathfinder: Bendigo maiden winner last prep. Returned very well behind Bay of Biscay on heavy last start. Well weighted.
Comments: Divine Quality has come up very short for a maiden winner. It was a quality win but the horse has to step up here again. Overstep ticks all the boxes and has to be considered top pick here. Silver Pathfinder looks a chance here at odds.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back Overstep and Silver Pathfinder
Flemington Race 6 – 2000m – TAB/ATA Celebrates Women Trainers Handicap
1. Yulong Baby: Price runner. Last win was course and distance in similar grade. Was 4th up that day. First up run didn’t find much over the 1600m. Goes much better 2nd up and has had enough time between runs. Win wouldn’t be a total shock.
2. Zasorceress: Significantly back in class today after a good run on a soft track. Best at course in the past is more than good enough to win this. Maps nicely just worse than midfield from the good barrier today and well weighted with Allen onboard.
3. Duchess Kate: 4th up here and finally back to a Good track where she will be suited today over 2000m. measured up over in NZ at this distance in Group company.
4. Monogram: Three runs this prep and hasn’t gone close. Wasn’t too bad two back on Good surface but clearly has to improve on curernt form.
5. Maraudamiss: One run this prep. Saddle slipped and never a factor but still ran well. Had a trial between runs and looks very well weighted here up in distance and grade – could be a very good type.
6. Hot Ruby: BM-84 winner last prep at Caulfield. Three lead in runs this prep were only fair but last start at Sandown did run well as favourite but found one too good. Gap to 2nd. Back to dryer here.
7. Powderworks: Fairly beaten by a long way last start behind Hot Ruby. Best in the past has been over these distances but not in this grade.
8. Angel Eight: 51kg after claims. Won 2 of last 4. Up to 2000m today and this is the testing material.
9. Savannah Moon: Not the worst run last start 5th at course over 1600m. Two previous starts were only fair. Still improving onwards this prep. Not sure she is good enough for this Class.
10. Via Cavour: Sale 8th last start in much easier. Not in this grade.
11. Rock Giselle: Sandown maiden winner three back and failed to show anything since. Take on.
12. Royal Butterfly: Heavy 8 5th last start. Previous start no better in harder. BM-58 winner.
13. Shenandoah: Maiden winner first up. Last start couldn’t win a BM-64
Comments: Not many chances here on paper. Zasorceress maps on top. Maraudamiss could be anything and looks a main threat while the value is Duchess Kate who should run a much better race today.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5
Strategy: Zasorceress – 3 units @ $2.5 to win
Flemington Race 7 – 1400m – Primacy Handicap
1. Urban Ruler: Ran nicely first up over 1200m at Sandown when did a lot of work and still ran 3rd. Well suited up to 1400m today and maps okay.
2. Capannello: Presented a treat in the yard last start at Caulfield over 1200m but was no match in that grade. Up to 1400m a throw at the stumps. Has to improve with the claim.
3. Widgee Turf: Presented shockingly in the yard last start at Caulfield and was never really a hope ridden for luck holding the rail to the line. Will need to have trained on significantly since last start to be well suited up to 1400m. Presented in the past as a good horse but really feel the horse may need another run in.
4. Fanfaron: Solid run last start when improved to run 4th in the Golden Reef behind Sword of Light. Had his chances in the race but just wasn’t good enough. Has to improve onwards to beat these but may just be better suited back to 1400m here.
5. Greviste: Two lead in wins before wide last start at Caulfield over 1400m and ran home well beaten 2.7L. Get back run on type and will get far back again today. Has the ability.
6. Zamzam: Listed winner in the past. Last prep was hugely disappointing. Ran well first up over the unsuitable 1100m and it was the ideal lead in run for mine up in grade here.
7. Good Therapy: Won two from three heading into this in easier grades. Was a nice 3L win heading in but has to improve again.
8. Atlantic Express: Only fair last start in the Gold Reef. Previous starts suggest the step back to 1400m isn’t ideal.
9. Just Hifalutin: Three starts to date. Won two in a row and last start ran decently 5th at Caulfield in a decent grade of race. Was wide no cover. Can improve.
10. Soho Ruby: Two starts this prep and run second twice in good company. Has the ability to run well here based on past runs.
12. A Mist Opportunity: Didn’t measure up to the top level the past two runs. Previous runs also well below this.
13. Sherpa Trail: Maiden winner. Failed in the Bendigo Guineas and last start at Cranbourne just got the win over Fomo. Improvement needed.
14. Social Status: Maiden winner. Hard to see the huge improvement needed.
15. Hakerak: Couldn’t win a maiden!
Comments: Really liked the lead in run of ZamZam who looks much better suited here today with time to train on. Maps perfectly.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: Zamzam – 1 unit Each-Way @ $19/$5.30
Flemington Race 8 – 1000m – Sports Handicap
1. Under The Louvre: Last win was in G1 company over 1400m. Last prep failed to get a win beaten favourite first up in G3 company over 1100m at Caulfield, then too far back in G2 down the straight and poorly weighted before 5th in Manikato. Trialled well enough heading in but tough weight today.
2. Malibu Style: Well enough in at the weights today off the VERY good quality win last start at Caulfield. Should be well suited here again at Flemington.
3. Reldas: Short of his very best distances in the past. Just doesn’t have the turn of foot over 1000m. Take on.
4. Husson Eagle: Running poorly this prep. hard to suggest on any runs.
5. Crystal Dreamer: Good win two back at Caulfield from on speed. Last start over further went back with a sit and was just simply out sprinted late. Better weighted here but has to improve against.
6. Sirbible: Probably over the odds. 1000m is certainly his distance. G2 placed over 1200m. Looks ideal down the straight and runs fast times.
7. Diamond Oasis: Hasn’t won in a long time and new trainer and lots of gear changes. Best is good enough to measure up.
8. Le Bonsir: First up over the 1000m which is just short of his very best distance. Goes okay here though.
9. O’Malley: Ran home well first up at Caulfield for 4th out wide in a race won on speed. Step up here but goes well at track and will improve loads.
10. Gun Case: Last win was over 955m in easier grade. Step up in class here and first up run didn’t show much.
11. Bullpit: Consistent type and ran 2nd three back and 3rd last start. Others preferred.
12. Sunday Escape: Poor last start behind Malibu Style. Previous starts still has him well below these.
13. Orujo: Thrown in the deep end most runs this prep and has drowned. Take on.
14. Dance with Fontein: Not terrible last start at Pakenham but clearly outclassed here on previous runs.
15. Nasdex: Nice strong win last start at Pakenham in easier grade. Won 4 of last 5.
16. Rewarding Effort: Finished last prep with BM70-78 wins over 1600m. 1000m not ideal.
17. Snappy Esprit: Horrible last start. Previous runs not too much better. Take on.
Comments: Wide open race. Can’t have Under The Louvre at the weight and can’t be overly confident on a few others here either. Malibu Style is the pick of the ground.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 9, 15
Strategy: Malibu Style E/W
Flemington Race 9 – 1600m – True Version Handicap
1. Elite Tiger: Ran very well last start at Caulfield over 1600m when got too far back in a slowly run race. Form franked since and should run well.
2. Grand Dreamer: Big run and win last start at Randwick over this distance on heavy. Going well and clearly measures up to this grade today. Barrier a hinder.
3. Kapset: Got away with nice sectionals out front last start at Caulfield and kept on going. Solid win but back to Flemington doesn’t look likely.
4. Hokkaido: BM-78 winner two back at Mornington in easier. Heavy loss last start a forgive. Has ability but improvement needed.
5. Amarela: Ran a blinder last start in harder company on heavy 8 at this course. Previous runs were decent also behind Ma Jones and Give Us a Go. Could be ready to fire.
6. Aurum Spirit: Ran a decent race last start 5th behind Kapset and Elite Tiger. Was better than expected off previous form. Can run well against with 3kg claim but hard to see a win.
7. Steggler: Supported first up at Ballarat in similar grade when 2L off Elite Tiger. Better weighted today and Rawiller stays on.
8. Guizot: Ran on Thursday so doubt they run here.
9. Scapa Cove: Won first up in easier grade BM-70.. first time over 1600m this prep off two average runs over short. Has to improve again but does have ability back in class here.
10. Long Face Grace: A year off before failing firs tup with no dash to show after being wide no cover. Best is still hard to justify here.
11. Shintaro: Heavy BM-64 grade win last start by 4L with a big weight. Loves it wet obviously. Dry form hard to frank.
12. Irish Optimism: Failed to fire first up over the unsuitable 1300m for stable. Last prep in UK won well over 1600m and previous 1600m form was sound. This is certainly a similar grade of race and can run well here from the barrier.
13. Northern Journey: Failed to show anything first up over a similar distance. Needs further.
14. Kansas Sunflower: Got the win last start at Bendigo after two blinding runs. Similar grade of race again here and well suited back to Flemington. Respect at weight.
15. Tears of Joy: Kav runner that doesn’t win often or out of turn. First up poor and beaten significantly. Weeks between runs but never won 2nd up and needs the run and further.
16. Stormsabrewing: Stable going very well at the moment. Nice run 2nd last start held up for runs. Previous runs have her right in this.
18. Bee Jay Zed: Decent win last start over Pravro at Bendigo in easier grade. 0.2L off ELite Tiger the run before and weighted okay. Has to improve but cleary has the ability.
Comments: Wide way to finish the day. All Quaddie numbers have a chance… plus more!
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 12, 14, 16
Strategy: Back Elite Tiger. Also back Scapa Cove.
