Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington on 4 March 2017. We had a very nice day on track last week at Caulfield landing two of our best best while our best value ran 2nd for a slight return also. Back at Flemington today where the rail returns to the true and i’m expecting horses in the first 6-8 around the turn or into the final 400m of the straight will be the best suited. Looking forward to a good day starting with two big bets down the straight. Remember, keep the futures markets open all day especially with options available when good horses win in R2, R3, R7 and R8 at Flemington. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Madeenaty – 5 units @ $2.05 to win.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 – Heatherly – 3.5 units @ $2.10 to win.
Best Each-Way
Flemington Race 8 – Northwest Passage – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $4.2/$1.80
*Note I believe we will get a better price at the jump as very few experts are backing this horse*
Best Value
Flemington Race 7 – Attention – 1 unit Each-Way @ $10/$3.40
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 6, 13, 16
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1100m – Mrs Mac’s Family Bakery Sprint
1. Catch a Fire: First up at the Gold Coast in the Magic Millions over 1300m ran quite well beaten 2.5L. Best runs in the past have been over the sprint distances. Never placed from 3 attempts at this track though. Has the ability to win.
2. Missrock: Duel nominated. Hurt in the float i believe on the way to the track last start. Best is obviously over much further but did win first up two preps back over 1200m in G3 class on a soft track.
3. Sword of Light: First up and never won at track. Very best is seen over further than this but did run well previous over 1000m with wins and good placings in nice company.
4. Pink Perfection: Been having every possible chance the past few runs but just not good enough. Has won at track previously.
6. Invincible Heart: Very well backed the past few starts. Very poor last start at Moonee Valley when never ran into it. Hard to suggest on what we saw there and with Newitt back on.
7. Give Us a Go: Finished off last prep with a solid third at course over 1400m when probably should have won. Previous starts ran well enough over shorter, but clearly best over further than this.
8. Savaju: Strong BM-64 grade win over 1100m last start in decent enough times. Previous runs were average at best though. Struggle to suggest.
Comments: A really average group of horses to open the racing today down the straight. On the lead in run I have to side with Catch a Fire here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Catch a Fire to win.
Flemington Race 2 – 1000m – ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap
1. Charmed Harmony: Undergone a throat operation since. Not suited by the 1000m IMO and I have to take him on.
2. Heatherly: Has won previously down the straight. Ran well enough in the Lightning off the tempo that really didn’t suit and will be much better suited by a stronger tempo.
3. Husson Eagle: Last win was over 1000m and has won previously at Flemington. Didn’t show me enough the past three runs is an issue and has to have improved. Change of jockey also doesn’t give me confidence.
4. Reldas: Old mate has a load of talent but his very best is over further and at other tracks. I have to take him on here.
5. Lady Esprit: Continues to run well this prep with two wins in a row before held up for runs two back at Caulfield and then made a long run last start and couldn’t catch the leader over 955m. Big step up in grade again.
6. Dance With Fontein: On speed over 1000m last start at Moonee Valley in much easier company. Never placed at track and best around a bend.
7. Snappy Esprit: Led and run down and dominated last start at Moonee Valley. Hard to see him going close here.
Comments: Heatherly is lengths better than any runner in this race down the straight. Has a run under her belt and will be very hard to chase down setting a strong tempo out front.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Heatherly – 3.5 units @ $2.10 to win.
Flemington Race 3 – 1000m – 3AW is Football Stakes
1. Madeenaty: Proved to be a very nice type running a respectable third behind Houtzen and Chauffeur up at the Gold Coast. 50 days between runs and has won down the straight previously in very nice type. Clearly the horse to beat here. Others didn’t like the lead in trial run, but i thought it was good. Horse is flying at home also by all reports and this is an ideal lead in for the Golden Slipper.
2. Can’t Remember: Nice enough run last prep 2nd to Azazel at MV but had every chance. First up very well beaten in the Prelude. Hard to suggest on that run but has more to give than shown.
3. Sam’s Image: Maiden winner in less than average type last start at Benalla. Obviously has shown ability but has to improve lengths here.
4. Seized: 1.25L 2nd to a good horse in Muraaqeb first up at Moonee Valley from on speed. Has to improve significantly again to run 1 place better.
5. Chaos Ball: Two trials leading into this that have been respectable. Has been on the drift since markets opened though and would have to be very good to win this.
6. Peppino: First time on the track here and no offical trials. Had a jump out at Flemington and wasn’t really tested.
9. Hard Faith: Only run last prep was average at best beaten 8.7L. No money coming for the horse and hard to suggest the improvement between preps. Did jump out well though on speed heading into this.
11. Caribbean Pearl: $15k purchase. Unseen.
12. Holy Honor: Looked a nice type in a recent jump out and appears to have a decent turn of foot. Looks the main danger of the first starters.
13. Ploverset: First starter for the Hayes yard. Had a jump out on 24th Feb at Flemington over 800m and went well through the line. Looks to have ability.
Comments: Clear top pick today is Madennaty. Very keen to bet. Only a few minor dangers.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Madeenaty – 5 units @ $2.05 to win.
Flemington Race 4 – 1600m – Mitty’s Handicap
1. Hans Holbein: Showed absolutely nothing last prep when poor first up over 2040m and then heart rhythm issue the next start over 1700m. Previous prep was okay over 1700m first up beaten 5L but finishing off okay. Needs further.
2. Jerilderie Letter: Nice enough type that failed to get the win last time he was in town but he measured up to city class level. 6 runs this prep and has failed to get a win on the board yet. Best run was last start when 2nd to Hellova Street and beat home Admiral.
3. Divine Mr Artie: Continues to run well without winning this prep and runs well at Flemington over the 1600m distance. Should have bolted in three runs back over the 1400m and last start was beaten by the speed run in the race meaning he had to produce a long run and went for it far too early. Can win.
4. Liapari: Two wins in a row up at Randwick in strong prizemoney races going through the grades. Actually steps back in class here and has a good turn of foot.
5. Show a Star: Two starts this prep. Well beaten favourite at Camperdown first up and then poor last start at Caulfield. Struggle to suggest here.
6. Khutulun: Has been running well all prep but hasn’t exactly been getting close to the win. Back up to 1600m today… only placed once from 6 runs at this track is a negative. Needs to improve.
7. Duke of Ellington: Average run at best for mine first up over the 1400m. Up to 1600m here but clearly wants much further. Can’t have here.
8. Portman: Won 3 from 4 runs this prep and only loss was when he was made to work hard out front over the 1400m at course two runs back. Last start allowed to settle in a good spot and was far too good for an field much less classy than this. Has a strong turn of foot and will be hard to beat.
Comments: Portman looks a good horse and I think can clearly win this, but the price is under what I could consider (i’d want closer to $3). Liapari has proven to be a horse that can measure up and is worthy is backing while Divine Mr Artie will get the perfect hold up run from the inside barrier today and will be coming over the top late.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back Liapari and Divine Mr Artie.
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – Frances Tressady Stakes
1. Iggimacool: Last win was 10 months ago at course over 1600m on a soft track. Last prep after the win she showed absolutely nothing on the track. Needs to be back to her best to measure up here against the fit runners.
2. I Love It: Two runs this prep and both starts she was fairly beaten behind Lyuba, Kiss Me Ketut and Ocean Embers. Can continue onwards here and run well, but has to improve onwards again to win.
3. Rising Romance: Put in a very good run first up last prep 2nd in the G1 Memsie. The run third up was also good. At her best she can clearly just put this field away. Wants a nice strong solid tempo run throughout.
4. Manageress: Very disappointing run first up over 1200m when didn’t show a lot. Looking for further on what i’ve seen.
5. Choose: Folded like a cheap suit first up at Caulfield over 1200m. Up to 1400m gives more of a chance but she hasn’t shown me anything this or last prep.
6. Jalan Jalan: Well backed favourite last start in much easier grade and simply not good enough. Hard to suggest.
7. Deja Blue: Good win in easier grade last start at Moonee Valley from a sit and sprint position. Much harder here up to 1400m.
8. Diamond Baroness: Claimed late last start at course and distance when pushed on at the top of the straight and looked to have it won. Hard to hold this group out.
9. Happy Hannah: Proved to be a good horse last prep when G3 and G3 placed over 1600m and 2000m. Very best over further but should run well here.
10. Turbo Miss: Every chance behind Deja Blue last start at MV. Hard to suggest he improvement even up in distance.
11. Quilate: Nice enough run last start at Sandown when only just beaten on the line. Has to make a step up again here.
Comments: Several chances on paper but Rising Romance with Damien Oliver taking the ride today looks very well suited here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Rising Romance E/W
Flemington Race 6 – 1400m – TAB Rewards Stakes
1. Kenjorwood: First up today coming off a prep where he finished off with two very nice wins over 1600m and 1700m. Doesn’t have the very best first up record but I know he will have only had a small spell and trained into this run. Was huge last start. Doesn’t ahve to lead today but can if needed from the barrier.
2. He or She: First up over the distance of 1400m. Was good last prep but was always a few lengths off the winners. I’m not sure exactly what his very best distance is but I feel it may be 1600m off a hot tempo.
3. Hooked: Has been smashed in betting today. Two very poor preps in a row.. need to be back to his very best to be winning this. Does go well fresh though. Jumped out really well heading into this.
4. Charlie Boy: Every chance the past tow starts at Caulfield and Flemington over 1400m. Have to take on here.
5. Grande Rosso: 1600m back to 1400m is much better suited today when didn’t seem to handle the fast run 1600m for mine last start and failed to stay. Strong 1400m shouldn’t be too much of an issue but i do have a query over how good he is off a very genuine tempo.
6. Zebrinz: Backed as if he was going to win last start at course and distance and he saluted accordingly. Can run well again here.
7. Inspector: Seemed to have every possible chance last start at course over 1200m. Never won over 1400m in the past or at the track.
8. Sadaqa: Well backed last start when 0.75L 2nd to Zebrinz coming off a good run previously. Needs to improve onwards again to measure up.
9. Kirani: Continues to run well without winning. 1.2L off Well Sprung and Boomwaa last start from on speed in a front runner dominated race. Not sure 1400m suits here.
10. Orient Line: Poor first up on Soft. Last prep didn’t show me enough to suggest a 1400m win here.
Comments: Four horse race. I have to side with Kenjorwood based on the two runs to finish last prep… if he is fit and ready to go they will struggle to match him the final 600m. Hooked looks the big danger off the jump out.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Strategy: Back both Kenjorwood and Hooked.
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – Australian Guineas
1. Prized Icon: Average at best lead in run over the 1600m. Very best runs in the past for mine were over further distances.. y es the horse won a Group 1 over 1600m, but the 2500m G1 win last prep was clearly his deal. Be surprised if he wins here.
2. Divine Prophet: 1600m Group 1 winner last prep and to be fair had the run of the race that day. He is a good horse but has he come back good enough? I was really disappointed with the lead in run and he has to have found lengths today. Not the greatest mapping.
3. Seaburge: Just like Divine Prophet, He showed top class potential last prep but failed to fire first up. Much better than has been seen this prep. Maps nicely enouhg from the inside barrier today.
4. Hey Doc: Won well last start at course over 1400m on a day when being just off the speed in the line Hey Doc and Malaise found was certainly idea. 3rd/4th/5th/6th and 7th all came from far back in the run. This is a much harder race today and Hey Doc had the dead set ideal run last start when they slowed down 800m to 500m and allowed him to simply out sprint the field the final 300m. This will be much harder.
5. Morton’s Folk: Blocked for runs at critical times last start but in reality he didn’t sprint well enough either on the day. Up to 1600m will suit better here but barrier 19 is a horror gate and will need to improve and get a tougher tempo run.
6. Attention: Sensational lead in run and we tipped him as our value tip at the start of the week with $17 available. Into single figures now. Last start off a strong final 800m ran very well behind Black Heart Bart. Beat home 4 Group 1 winners last start. Clearly a top chance here and will be on speed today on what looks a very suitable slow to medium run first 400-600m and strongly run final 1000m if he gets the perfect ride.
7. Oak Door: Wide barrier. Will go forward. Ran them around slowly out front last start and stole a win in Group 2 company. Much harder here up to 1600m and two back run is the run to take note of when the times are sound.
8. So Si Bon: 1200m up to 1600m and will be much better suited here today. Was on speed last start so don’t be surprised if they push forward from the wide barrier with D Oliver on today. Is flying at home. Will run well here.. expect to go onto the Derby and be a winning chance there.
9. Anaheim: 3YO-LR winner at ocurse over 1800m last prep. First up every chance beaten 2L over 1400m. Need sfurther for very best.
10. Throssell: Disappointing effort last start. Better than that based on previous prep runs. Even so, I struggle to suggest the win or place here.
11. Inside Agent: Good run last start from far back in the run for 5th, but has to take a step up again today. Change of jockey to a first time rider isn’t ideal for this horse that is very tough to ride out.
12. Snitzson: Pulled up lame last start when very well backed at Caulfield. Beat Portman previous start over 1400m. Coming off lameness is a big issue here but maps very well from the inside barrier. Respect.
13. Land of Plenty: Ran a nice race last start having every chance really on the day. Poor barrier not helping here. Will go close.
14. Harlow Gold: Too far back over 1400m first up and finished off nicely without being a winning chance. Has to sit closer today from the inside barrier. May need further.
15. Legless Veuve: Bled last start which is a big issue. Soft win previous run. Hard to suggest even from the on speed position today.
16. Fuhryk: Very good horse with an easy Group 3 win last start. First time 1600m a query but stable believe she is a chance.
17. Theanswermyfriend: First emergency off a decent win at Sandown last start. I struggle to suggest him as a winning hope here and i’ll take him on.
18. Redouble: Doubtful to get a run. Shown ability in the past but would have to improve onwards and upwards to measure up and win this.
19. Hardham: Very doubtful to get a run. Best isn’t good enough on what we saw last start. That being said, wasn’t terrible first up.
Comments: Four key chances I want to be on in the Quaddie and one clear standout in Attention i’ve been on all week and keen to back.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 6, 13, 16
Strategy: Attention – 1 unit Each-Way @ $10/$3.40
Flemington Race 8 – 2600m – 3AW Roy Higgins Quality
1. Almoonqith: I was really expecting him to step up and run a very strong race today after the average run first up over 1800m in the Peter Young over an unsuitable distance… but he has been given vaccinations on Monday to allow him to travel to Dubai later in the month targeting the World Cup meeting. Every human and horse can react differently, but it’s my view that this is a horse i want to avoid based on having different diseaes pumped into it’s system that could affect the horses performance today. Even if runs poorly today, I wouldn’t count the horse out of being a chance in the Adelaide Cup.
2. Big Memory: Maps perfectly for a run just off the speed today from the perfect inside barrier. Due to Almoonqith being in the race, Big Memory gets in really well at the compressed weights today. Well beaten favourite last start by Northwest Passage and gets a 2kg swing today. Will get a stronger tempo than last start which should suit. 7 runs 0 wins at track in the past.
3. Northwest Passage: Got us the money last start at Moonee Valley controlling the pace out the front from start to finish. It’s very important to realise that the horse didn’t handle the Moonee Valley turn one bit at all that day and it was an amazing win even after controlling the pace as the horse lost lengths cornering. From everything i’ve seen in the past, I have no issues with a stronger tempo today for this talented Gelding and I think he will measure up once again here going on to the Derby. I’m expecting the price to drift and we should get bigger on the day.
4. De Little Engine: Second up coming out of a race behind Second Bullet who has failed since that run. Obviously back up to a distance that suits the horse, but hasn’t won since 2015 and needs to improve here.
5. Mujadale: Rising 9YO. Last time he won he had to be over-whipped to the maximum. Two runs in a well beaten on both occasions.
6. Like a Carousel: Hasn’t won since 2014 and that was a second rate listed race compared to a Flemington one like this today. Well beaten first two runs this prep but last start wasn’t terrible over 2000m. Has to obviously improve but better suited up in distance.
7. Cadillac Mountain: Too far back last start but clearly not good enough either. Two back looked the winner then somehow ran 4th. Up in distance should be suitable but I can’t see the win here at weights.
8. Dandy Gent: Ran well enough third behind Northwest Passage last start. Same weight today and has to improve.
9. Annus Mirabilis: Back up in distance is more suitable today after a respectable third last start behind Post D’France back in class. Won well two back over 2800m at course and looks a clear danger to the favourite. Barrier the only clear issue.
11. Double Bluff: Writing was on the wall and he got a win two back in much easier grade. Last start back to 1700m and never a chance. Up to this distance again and a win wouldn’t shock, but not very well weighted here.
12. Post D’France: First time over the distance a huge query. Good win last start over the 2000m and was going about it the right way. Won’t have the turn of foot as last start.
14. Settler’s Stone: Nice enough horse that has been placing and running top 6 over in Tasmania. 3.3L off Big Duke last start over 2400m. Has to improve and not suited by a dry track.
Comments: There aren’t many chances in this race today on my mapping. The pace is expected to be true enough throughout and this is the testing material for Northwest Passage. I feel he is up for the challenge and well enough in here for a top class horse. Big Memory looks the main chance on mapping while Annus Mirabilis is the main danger on paper but maps poorly.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 9
Strategy: Northwest Passage – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $4.2/$1.80
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Saintly Handicap
1. Wazzenme: Hugely disappointing two runs this prep. Much better than that on last prep runs especially when 0.6L off Sacred Elixir over 1400m in Group 3 company. Will run much better today but not sure the improvement needed will get him the lengths needed to win.
2. Knowable: Good win two back. Nice enough run last start behind Oak Door when the speed wasn’t on out front. Will be a much better suited race today back to Flemington. Respect.
3. Theanswermyfriend: Strong win last start at Sandown over the 1400m in MUCH easier company. Got away with an easy run out front and put them away well.. but it was expected with the time run. Struggle to suggest this horse is top class.
4. Redouble: Too far back last start and blocked for runs. Much better suited first time Flemington with the speed much stronger today. Can run well.
5. Kaching: Hard horse to follow in this grade. Good at Bendigo winning his maiden last prep but failed to measure up to this top level since.
6. Mr Sneaky: Continues to run well without winning this prep. Very nice run last start when simply too far back after jumping poorly. Not very well in at the weights today either. Has the ability to win though.
7. Navagio: 3YO-F winner first up over 1100m and failed since over 1200m. First time 1400m and looks a big price on paper for a horse that has ability from a good gate.
9. Rockstar Rebel: 3YO-LR 3rd to end last prep at course over 1800m. 1300m maiden winner. Shown ability in the past but never won in this class and best run was over further.
10. Toffee Nose: 1200m maiden winner heading into this. 2000m 4th in Group 2 fillies grade last prep at course. Will show very best over much further.
11. Think Babe: Strong 8L win last start over 1300m at the bool but didn’t beat much and it was really a sit and sprint for 200m to get away from an average bunch. Has to be really good to measure up here.
12. Tribal Wisdom: Nice enough Sale maiden winner out the front in average at best time. Has to improve but has ability.
13. Gunn Island: 1200m Bm-64 3rd last start. Average run prior. Up to 1400m should suit but not convincing form lines for me.
Comments: Knowable is the top pick here while Navagio looks the value in the race. Redouble has to be considered and so do a few others including Think Babe and Theanswermyfriend. Hardest race of the day.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 11
Strategy: Back Knowable and Navagio
