Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on 3 March 2018. Action heads to Flemington for an action packed Guineas day card. A 31’c day is forecast with 35km gusty winds around that could have a say in proceedings throughout the day.
Best Bets
Flemington Race 6 – Poetic Dream – 3 units @ $3.00
Flemington Race 4 – Oregon’s Day – 1.5 Units @ $3.10
Flemington Race 7 – Main Stage – 0.25U X 0.75U @ $17/$3.80
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – 3AW is Football Stakes – 2YO
1. Ollivander: Failed on speed last start and then scratched from Blue Diamond due to lameness. A week from lameness and surely missed training runs… hard to suggest even with ability shown first up.
2. Nomothaj: Massive disappointment in the Magic Millions when started single figures on the day. First ever run down the straight was sensational and beat Sunlight. If runs up to best form, could space these.
3. Irukandji: Failed to fire first run ever when shin sore 100 days ago. Blinkers on and will have to have improved significantly since then.
5. Akka’s Meteor: Strong trial winner on lead in. Respect enough and well in here in betting.
6. Barack O’Banner: Unseen Corstens runner. Williams takes ride and well bred.
7. Thunderdome: Another unseen Corstens runner with Baster on board and winkers. Double figures in betting.
8. Virtual Insanity: First up Hayes runner. Behind the first and top crop so be interesting how this one goes here. Hasn’t been backed. Nice trial but wants further?
10. Naduri: Strong maiden win first up at the Bool. Big jump needed again here.
11. Absaroka: Very well backed well bred Hayhes stable runner with Oliver on board. Nicely in at weights.
Expected Speed: Moderate early speed – sit and sprint late as much of these are.
Top Chances: Nomothaj
High Chances: Absaroka
Medium Chances: Irukandji, Akka’s Meteor
Low Chances: Ollivander, Barack O’Banner, Thunderdome, Virtual Insanity, Naduri
Very Low Chances: None
Comments: Obviously a very hard race to have an opinion on in terms of the new starters as there is a load of water to still go under the bridge with them. All I know is Nomothaj has handled the straight with class and the horses best run beat the MM winner and Golden Slipper fancy in Sunlight.. a repeat of that simply wins this.
Strategy: Nomothaj 1X3
Flemington Race 2 – 2600m – 3AW Roy Higgins Quality – Listed
2. Aloft: Strong win over 2000m first up last prep before a very good 3rd over 2500m and then failing the next two starts. Brilliant first up record and the one to beat from stable.
3. Double Bluff: Two wins in a row in easier grades than this. Step up in distance solid.. but horse has peaked the past two starts and surely can’t go beyond that again?
4. Fanatic: Isn’t her grand final today on track for a good hit out in Adelaide in the cup. Prepared for further but has been backed and can run well.
5. Ormito: Nice run just beaten when 3rd at Moonee Valley last start behind Double Bluff. Another step up in grade and while looks a great place chance, may find one too good again?
6. Cry If I Want To: Kilmore winner two back in much easier. Made late ground off a strong tempo last start over 2000m. Steps up to 2500m here and up in grade again.
7. Eaton: Been up a long time this prep. Back to BM-64 grade two back at Sandown and found a win. Last start in harder not great. Hugely out of class here.
Expected Speed: Several lengths above benchmark early/middle with potential to be even stronger… but expect Williams stable know Aloft’s best runs have been off medium/strong early/mid and horses have potential to over-do it.
Top Chances: Aloft
High Chances: Double Bluff
Medium Chances: Fanatic
Low Chances: Cry If I Want To, Ormito
Very Low Chances: Eaton
Comments: Team Williams will have their horses ready first up for the 2600m and this is an ideal kick off point. The tempo will be under their control and will be solid, but not over done. Aloft is a Genuine Group horse over the staying distance. Aloft is the better first up horse and looks the best suited controlling the speed.
Strategy: Back Aloft
Flemington Race 3 – 1100m – Mittys Handicap – BM84
1. Fragonard: Strong run first up beaten by Prussian Vixen, Flippant and Petition. Needed the run and well back in class here looks absolutely suited if handles straight and drop back to 1100m.
2. Hear The Chant: Failed to get a win last prep but ran within 1.25L of Fragonard and gave the horse 4kg on that day… so 4.5kg swing today. Has won down the straight in the past and if improved during time off, will be very hard to hold out.
3. Give Us a Go: Best seen over further than this at track. G2 4th on record over 1400m. May just be too short first up for this grinder.
4. Motown Lil: Trial was fair on lead in. Didn’t win last prep outside of first up in much easier on wet surface. Has run well down the straight in the past.
5. Essence of Terror: Doesn’t win often. Last win in similar grade at Moonee Valley. Last few runs below what is needed here.
8. Club Tropicana: Fairly beaten last start at Moonee Valley in a leader dominated race. Hasn’t shown form seen four and five back the past three runs is a concern.
9. Working From Home: Lightly raced type first up here. Went through grades last prep and beat good types in Guizot and Hectopascal at the bool. May need further for very best the only issue.
Expected Speed: Moderate early with a sprint home.
Top Chances: Fragonard
High Chances: Hear The Chant, Essence of Terror
Medium Chances: Club Tropicana, Working From Home
Low Chances: Motown Lil
Very Low Chances: Give Us a Go
Comments: Fragonard the obvious horse here but will the 1100m suit? Hear the Chant the horse that could go right past Fragonard this prep with a 4.5kg swing and an optimal position in running from mapping.
Strategy: Back Hear The Chant. Save Fragonard.
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – Frances Tressady Stakes – Group 3
1. Oregon’s Day: Won second up last prep over this distance at Caulfield beating some nice types after a fair 8th the previous start in a front runner dominated race. Going well at the trials.
2. Deja Blue: Group 3 3rd last start in Tasmania beaten 4.9L. Won three back in listed grade at Geelong. Up to 1400m – last run in Group 3 grade at track and distance ran 5th beaten 1.5L.
3. Consommateur: Strong time better suited by longer distances than 1400m based on previous preps runs. Did win a 1900m Group 3 at Rosehill on a Heavy 10. Well back in class here to be fair.
4. Flippant: Smashed in betting last start, they ran around slowly and horse didn’t hit any records falling out of it beaten 5L. On the 7 day backup and has to be considered.
5. Harlow Gold: Always oozed class but failed to deliver with no wins in the past 10 runs. Group 1 2nd over 2500m in the Oaks… first up two preps back over 1400m 3rd at Flemington. First up last prep over 1500m 5th. Hard to suggest at distance.
6. Tykiato: They went too hard for the horse to show its best last start. Up to a Group 3 doesn’t inspire confidence on last start run. Better fresh?
7. Banda Spice: Didn’t finish off first up off a strong tempo. Best runs in the past have been with average to small above average early and can’t see huge speeds here?
8. Soho Ruby: Freshened up after a real disappointing result last start at Flemington. Previous run was a good win and good enough to score this.
10. Fille Champagne: Came home ok enough off a slow speed last start and steps up in distance again. Best in recent past probably still not good enough?
Expected Speed: Real lack of speed runners in this so if Deja Blue or Banda Spice don’t lead, Flippant may just have to push the tempo to suit. Very hard to predict the speed here.
Top Chances: Oregon’s Day
High Chances: Soho Ruby, Flippant
Medium Chances: Deja Blue, Tykiato
Low Chances: Harlow Gold, Fillie CHampagne
Very Low Chances: Banda Spice
Comments: Lack of speed turns this race into a very hard one to judge. Oregon’s Day looks very hard to beat but has been very well backed in already in early markets taking a lot of value out of the price.
Strategy: Oregon’s Day to win
Flemington Race 5 – 2000m – JDRF Australia Handicap – BM-70
1. Mutarakem: Won 3 of last 5 in Victoria. Last start just got there in easier than this at the Valley. Has to improve at these weights.
2. All Out of Love: Tough barrier but finally up to the right distance ranges. Should be getting near top here. Get back run on type.
3. Khartoum: Back in class here off a solid hitout that should have suited behind Jrod. Respect on best we have seen in past 4 runs.
4. Mr Fergus: Two wins in a row in significantly easier grade of races. Solid win on lead in but never gone close to what is needed here.
6. Rokda Kasba: Went close last start at Caulfield on speed leading them around when 0.7L 3rd over 2400m. Back to 2000m here no negative.
7. Wannon Warrior: 1600m up to 2000m tough ask in this grade. Unknown at this distance. Last start solid enough form.
8. Big Pat’s Pontiac: Strong last start run at this distance at Moonee Valley. Stays in class and will be coming home strongly. Respect.
9. Vungers: Main leader in race. Flew around last start at this distance winning by 3.3L beating a good type in Divine Command. Step up in grade but clearly well suited and they have found how to correctly ride the horse.
10. City of Kirkwall: Huge jump in class from Sapphire Coast to Flemington, but this horse was competitive over in Hong Kong so has to be considered.
11. Seattle Park: Strong CL1 win last start well back in grade. Brown keeps ride and has measured up to 3YO and Open grade in the past over 2000m. That being said needs to improve significantly from last start run.
12. Zandarral: Just missed last start every chance at Moonee Valley. Can run well again here and maps well.
13. Big Sur: Beaten favourite over 1600m last start. Previous prep did run 2000m but tough to see the improvement up in grade and distance.
14. La Belle Jude: CL1 winner last start beating an ok type in Penthouse Poet. Big class jump.
15. Mahalangur: Hawkes runner that ran ok enough the last two starts. Down in class but 1400m up to 2000m a huge query first time at distance.
Expected Speed: Vungers will lead them along at a decent clip early mid and late.
Top Chances: Vungers, Big Pat’s Pontiac,
High Chances: Zandarral, Seattle Park, Mutarakem, Seattle Park, Khartoum
Medium Chances: City of Kirkwall, Rokda Kasba
Low Chances: Mahalangur, Wannon Warrior, Zandarral, Big Sur
Very Low Chances: Mr Fergus, La Belle Jude
Comments: Expect the class runners to have their chances. If rail is hot, Vungers will be hard to run down and should give a big sight.
Strategy: Vungers 1×3
Flemington Race 6 – TAB Multiplier Autumn Handicap – Group 3
1. Tshahitsi: Huge disappointment last start after being vetted on arrival to course. Clearly something wrong with the horse. Short turn around here just 21 days… can the horse have recovered enough to carry 60k and win here? Hasn’t run the times needed yet this prep to win this.
2. Amovatio: First up here. Recent preps has taken a few runs to get going and I’d expect the horse to be under-done coming into a tough ask like this at the weights. Best has always been over slightly further.
3. Odeon: Best runs last prep 1700-2000m so short of best here early, but can still run well enough fresh and run well over 1400m. Clearly a horse with ability but expect to need the run?
4. Poetic Dream: Smashing time. Rated 3 points higher internationally than last week winner Holesman. Trialled very well, only query is if the horse can find its best at 1400m first up as best recorded ratings overseas were up to the 2000m. Group 1 class elite type.
5. Kenjorwood: Old boy needed the run last start. Stays at 1400m and probably needs another run at the very least.
6. Cool Chap: Finally got a win last prep over the 1700mn third up. Goes well at 1400m and is normally a great place price. General cat.
8. Nozomi: Won very well first up last prep at $151 and went to another level 3rd and 4th up. Good type of horse and can measure up here for sure.
10. Magnapal: Got a win three back deep into last prep over 2000m. Hard to suggest here.
11. Violate: Loves speed races and runs his very best with strong tempos over further than this. Need to come back at complete top to win over this distance.
12. Lizard Island: Not suited by tempo first up. Did trial well on lead in. Now or never again for this horse. Don’t dismiss fully.
Expected Speed: Strong speed throughout
Top Chances: Poetic Dream
High Chances: Nozomi, Odeon
Medium Chances: Lizard Island, Tshahitsi
Low Chances: Cool Chap, Kenjorwood, Violate, Amovatio
Very Low Chances: Magnapal
Comments: Poetic Dream is a Group 1 horse very well weighted here today coming off strong trials. Looks a very good bet here only needing luck at the right times to find runs. Lizard Island may very well be the value of the race for a now or never run.
Strategy: Poetic Dream to win
Flemington Race 7 – Australian Guineas – 1600m – Group 1
1. Mighty Boss: Every chance last start over 1400m at Caulfield and was weak from the 400m. Will need a brutal tempo on to repeat the Group 1 win of last prep.
2. Cliff’s Edge: Strong 2nd on lead in 3-wide the trip and still found the line strongly. Less speed on here and should be allowed to cross with significantly more ease today. Gets every chance and will be very hard to run down from out front.
3. Embellish: Below best first run in AUS and may very well be better suited by a slightly slower tempo over further. Maps perfectly.
4. Levendi: Solid lead in run for this horse. Certainly a good type but this is the testing material and suspect he may just be a step below the best of these.
5. Muraaqeb: Finished off strongly last start from out the back. Poor barrier today doesn’t help the cause of getting closer to the speed. Good type.
6. Villermont: Had no luck at lead in run. Will be ready to fire here if good enough.
7. Main Stage: Flew home last start from an unwinnable position. 1600m may be perfect for the horse. Has to be considered a top chance.
8. Addictive Nature: Steps back to 3YO grade after two solid runs in WFA against top class horses. Up to the mile and this looks the grand final run. Maps well.
9. Holy Snow: Strong win off a hot tempo at Caulfield on lead in. Horse will get back and be running on.
10. Salsamor: Just the one maiden win on record. Couldn’t beat Kings Command last start so hard to see a guineas win.
11. Grunt: Strong win last start over the 1400m given ideal run throughout. Maps horrible today and less speed on. May still be too good but would surprise.
12. Black Sail: Not ready in yard last start. Needs to have trained on to be a chance. Best two back is good enough to go well.
13. Peaceful State: No match for them last start over the 1400m off the hot tempo. May very well be suited to a lesser early speed today. Don’t simply dismiss.
14. Mr So and So: Good third last start on lead in and 2nd the run prior. Get back run on type the negatives of the horse.
15. Aloisia: Good lead in run. Can win no issues over 1600m but best run in the past was over 2000m.
16. Bring Me Roses: Good run 2nd to Ramraam last start. Won over 1600m last prep also.
Expected Speed: Solid to strong speed early middle and late.
Top Chances: Cliff’s Edge, Addictive Nature
High Chances: Embellish, Peaceful State, Main Stage
Medium Chances: Black Sail, Grunt, Villermont, Aloisia, Muraaqeb
Low Chances: Mighty Boss, Levendi, Salsamor, Mr So and So, Holy Snow, Bring Me Roses
Very Low Chances: None
Comments: A cracking Guineas this year. Cliff’s Edge is a deserved favourite while Addictive Nature will be peaking and looks ideally suited at double figure odds. Embellish is a big blowout chance at $20+ and will most likely drift on the day as is Main Stage at $18. Many chances here.
Strategy: Main Stage 1×3
Flemington Race 8 – ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap – 1000m – Listed
1. Fell Swoop: Hasn’t gone close to a race win since 2016. Last prep was 2L off Redzel first up over 1100m at Randwick obviously has to be considered the horses best recent run. Handles the straight track.
2. Secret Agenda: Smashing 1200m win in Group 1 Fillies before a Group 1 4th in another big race after that. Horse suited to the Flemington straight. Only query is long lay off missing Spring.
3. Crystal Dreamer: Trialed well between runs. Won two of last 3 and continues to run well. This is hardest recent ask class wise. Goes well at track.
4. Thermal Current: Looked at top in yard but was a big drifter in betting. Previous start blocked for runs down straight unlucky. Has the ability in this grade to run well and weighted fine.
5. Cannyescent: Surprised they stayed at sprint trips, horse looks to be wanting further? Or does it! Not the worst run last start but fairly beaten. Has an elite last 400m on record and if it parades well looks a big blowout chance.
6. I’m Wesley: Tasmania horse thrown in the deep end. Beat Hellova Street last start and steps back to 1200m. Would need to improve again to beat the best of these.
7. Malibu Style: Could very well be the leader and push the tempo here. Failed the end of last prep but put in a few good runs down the straight out front running along with solid tempo. Goes well first up.
8. Husson Eagle: Strong run first up and had every chance and wasn’t able to claim Rock N Gold who has run well since in the Oakleigh Plate. Good enough.
10. Khalama: 3rd last start at Warwick Farm in easier grade. Previous runs below this grade back up north. Has solid runs on record.
11. Olivier: Average to poor lead in form. Horse has to improve here significantly.
Expected Speed: Hard race to tell the pace in. Malibu Style has the ability to set a decent clip if Parnham wants to as does Crystal Dreamer and I’m Wesley.
Top Chances: Cannyescent
High Chances: Crystal Dreamer, Thermal Current, Husson Eagle
Medium Chances: Fell Swoop, Secret Agenda, I’m Wesley
Low Chances: Malibu Style, Khalama
Very Low Chances: Olivier
Comments: If they don’t set it up out front, this race will be setup for the best closers in the race with low weights and Cannyescent tops that list for me. Cannyescent has been kept to sprint distances by stable on purpose and looks set for this race. Has the ability like many of the stable runners to just fly over the top final 400m.
Strategy: Cannyescent 1X3
Flemington Race 9 – Saintly Handicap – 1400m – 3YO Handicap
1. Kentucky Breeze: Two strong wins last prep. Failed ot show much first up over 1400m off a tough tempo, but had a luckless run.
2. Cao Cao: Didn’t appreciate the tempo run early last start and knocked around late fell out of it. Potentially slower tempo today better suited back in class
3. Island Missile: Big disappointment last start coming off a very good run at Gosford. Just didn’t settle throughout with the tempo. Poor barrier today the negative back to this class.
4. Barbeque: Strong run on lead in behind Cao Cao when blocked for runs from a position that was hard to win from. Respect and can improve.
5. Eshtiraak: Strong lead in run behind Grunt and CO when ran on well enough from the back to suggest suited again here 2nd up. Oliver on.
6. Scarecrow: Big run from on speed last start when battled on and measured up to the top grade. Step back here, well weighted.
7. Holbien: Two wins in a row. Big jump in class this one.
8. Red White and Blue: Price runner making a huge jump in class after two runs and two wins this prep. Hasn’t shown the ability to date.
9. Muraahib: Three runs this prep and failed to get close to a win in similar or easier grades. Has to find lengths today.
10. Angelic Spirit: 1.5L 4th to Cliffs Edge last prep over 1600m. Maps for perfect run on the speed.
11. Eclair Sunshine: Get back run on type that goes better the faster they go out front. Not convinced they will be going breakneck speeds but may still be fast enough to run well.
12. Over and Above: Nice type of horse but has never run the sectionals needed to figure here. Unders for mine.
13. Indernile: Couldn’t win a CL1 last start over 1200m. Step up here to 1400m suits. Has run well here in the past.
14. Sheer Madness: BEst not good enough last two starts to feature in a race like this. Needs to improve again.
15. Caribbean Pearl: 2.5L 7th when 3-wide last start. Can improve here with a better run.
Expected Speed: Above average tempo – genuine.
Top Chances: Scarecrow
High Chances: Cao Cao, Holbein, Eshtiraak, Eclair Sunshine, Barbeque
Medium Chances: Angelic Spirit, Muraahib, Island Missile, Kentucky Breeze
Low Chances: Over and Above, Caribbean Pearl
Very Low Chances: Sheer Madness, Red White and Blue, Indernile
Comments: This looks Scarecrows race to lose based on the last start run. Steps back in grade and will be very hard to run down.
Strategy: Scarecrow 1X3
