Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington on January 28 2017. We are now onto a back to back to back meeting run and our best bet the past two days have both been scratched. Sadly, I really feel ours yesterday would have bolted in based on the times run etc, but that’s how the cookie crumbles. I’m really going large on a few plays today at Flemington with the wrong odds being bet based on my projections and ratings. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemingonton Race 5 – Flying Light – 4 units @ $7.50 to win. Goldstream – 1 unit @ $7.50 to win.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Widgee Turf – 2.5 units @ $3. Electric Charlie – 0.5 units @ $51.
Best Value
Flemington Race 4 – Honey Steel’s Gold – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $31/$7.30
Other Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Divine Mr Artie – 1.5 units @ $5.00
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 5, 15, 16
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 8
Leg Three: 2, 5, 6, 8, 9
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1100m – Doriemus Handicap
1. Jennifer Lynn: Strong Weir runner that finished last prep winning in top 3YO grade at Caulfield and Flemington over 1400m and a 0.9L 3rd in Group 2 company over 1600m to finish it off. Won her maiden over 1100m so handles it no troubles, but she has to be at her best here.
2. Pearl Congenial: Two starts for two wins this prep at Cranbourne and Sandown over similar distances. Big step up in grade today. Has shown ability as a 2YO but clearly needs to improve on the last two starts.
3. Scappare: Bm-58 grade winner two back after winning her maiden. Blocked for runs last start at Sandown when ran nicely enough. Big jump in class again.
4. Navagio: Maiden winner two runs back before failing in a Group 3 class race down the straight. Previous prep 0.2L 2nd to Yu Long Sheng Hui at big odds at Caulfield. Best seen on wet tracks.
5. Haafra Head: Took three starts to score in a maiden for this weir runner. Times only fair at best and others preferred.
6. Write Da Script: 1100m heavy track winner first up at Ararat when well backed. Back to dryer hard to be overly excited at the prices.
7. Vainglorious: Never won a race. Hard to suggest on last prep runs and being fairly beaten in a few maidens in the past.
8. Dimoshot: 8 starts for 0 places in the past. Hard to suggest a top 4 finish here.
9. Unique Lovely: Only run last prep poorly supported on the day and well beaten. Hard to suggest here.
Comments: Hard to look past the Weir quality runner Jennifer Lynn.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Jennifer Lynn to win.
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Owner.Racing.Com Handicap
1. Ample on Offa: Adelaide runner. Disappointed three back at Moonee Valley but went back to Adelaide and won and ran second in two good runs. Similar grade of race today and top weight with no claim. Tricky barrier.
2. Deja Blue: Good win last start at Flemington holding out the unlucky New Summer Night. Has a large amount of ability and there is no reason why she can’t go back to back in this grade.
3. Cruising Speed: FM-LR 4th two back at Eagle Farm after winning a fast run FM-CL4. Looks to have ability and has to be forgiven on all soft runs. Maps perfectly.
4. Diamond Baroness: Pakenham winner last start in easier grade with top weight over 1400m from a good barrier. Expected to try and lead again today.
5. Fast Approaching: Horrible first up. Hard to suggest here on what we saw back then.
6. Cat’s Wish: Ran nicely enough out front at Sandown. On best runs in the past she has to improve lengths again here.
7. New Summer Night: Eye-catcher last start simply asked way too much and should have won. Nicely weighted with a better jockey back onboard. Respect. Will be out the back.
8. Ma Jones: Well backed favourite last start when 7th behind Deja Blue. Failed previous start also. Pulled up lame last start which is a fair excuse. Has ability but hard to back so quick off lameness.
10. Gingie: Fairly beaten all three runs this prep behind New Summer Night and Beja Blue for examples.
12. Takeover: Disappointment last start at Kilmore. Won’t be winning or going close.
Comments: Cruising Speed and New Summer Knight are the two standouts from Diamond Baroness, Ma Joenes and Deja Blue.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back both Cruising Speed and New Summer Knight
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – ATA Celebrates 50 years Handicap
2. Oak Door: Sensational win last start at course and distance controlling the tempo out front to win well. Similar race today to beat over the same distance with a similar weight. Clearly one to beat again.
4. Widgee Turf: Ran on nicely last start at course and distance when they got away with a bit more than is acceptable on speed and he had to try and tough it out late which just wasn’t possible to get past them. Much better weighted today and maps well again. Expect a better tempo to suit.
5. Mr Sneaky: Had his chances last start at Moonee Valley off the slow tempo and was only fair to the line behind Gratwick. Big unknowns up to 1400m here and doesn’t win out of turn.
6. Toorak Cowboy: Ran quite well last start at Flemington 1.3L 5th behind Capannello in a slowly run race. Obviously a few unknowns for this lightly raced type.
7. Yulong Shengdao: Maiden winner first up at the Yarra and it was really easy. Looks a good type but obviously has to go to another level to beat the top two in betting here.
8. Baffert: Maiden winner last prep. Two runs this prep in easier grades have been decent without impressing. Shocked if wins here.
9. Electric Charlie: 1200m always going to be too short last start at Moonee Valley and was simply the run needed especially with the slow tempo. Up to 1400m and Flemington with more speed on should suit much better today. One to watch.
10. Knowable: Decent enough run 1300m 3rd at Sandown last start. Will be on speed pushing them along.
11. Lycurgus: Couldn’t win in CL1 grade last start on 3YB-64 the previous. Obviously need to improve to measure up here.
Comments: Really like Widgee Turf’s price today to turn the tables on Oak Door especially with the weights and the speed on. Electric Charlie looks a big price on the two back run over 1400m and maps to get a great run.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Widgee Turf – 2.5 units @ $3. Electric Charlie – 0.5 units @ $51.
Flemington Race 4 – 1600m – @FlemingtonVRC Handicap
1. Aurum Spirit: Well backed last start at Sandown but out the back and didn’t really flash home or anything. Has been running welle nough the past few runs but finds another hard race and top weight.
2. Correggio: Wagga winner five back and has been 4.5L or worse beaten the past four runs. Hard to suggest even to place.
3. Hell on Earth: Surely not backing up here today after a poor run 5th at Caulfield on Thursday.
4. Zadon: Looked niace horse two preps back when won at 1600m and 2000m but last prep didn’t go close in easier grades than this. First up today and needs to be at his best. 4 runs for 0 places in this grade.
5. Hokkaido: Ignore last start when not suited at Moonee Valley wide the trip. Two back run at Caulfield over 1400m behind Bradman was a very good run 3rd and will see him measure up here.
6. Honey Steel’s Gold: Hurdler that has won over this distance in the past and has been working down the house so expect a nice run today. Win wouldn’t be a total shock.
7. Firehouse Rock: First up ran okay without impressing over 1400m behind Rich Luck. Best runs last prep were over the 1800m distance range on shorter tracks. Needs to have improved between runs but this isn’t overly hard class wise.
9. Spur on Gold: Showed nothing last prep and first up run was horrible. Needs further on previous preps runs to show his very best which was over 2000m. Next start.
10. Jest For The Road: Won 3 of last 5 races which is better form than most heading into this. Last start didn’t beat much at all in Baffert at Pakenham but it was a nice enough win. Clearly has to improve to measure up here but winning form is good form.
11. Lola Lu: BM-64 winner two back coming home late over the top of Skulduggery from the back. Previous start 4th was very good also behind Sammy The Snake and last start they just ran it too slowly for her to show her best. Flying and well weighted here.
12. Portman: Lightly raced gelding. Two back win at Bendigo was solid in a fast time and a very respectable 2nd to Snitzson last start from on speed. Up to 1600m questionable but get the feeling ridden quieter today will suit? Has ability.
Comments: There are some very average horses in this race today. Lola Lu and Portman at the bottom of the weights along with Jest for the Road appeal while Honey Steel’s Gold and Hokkiado higher up in the weights also have claims with Firehouse Rock and Aurum Spirit. Portman is far too short in this race while Hokkaido is also under what I’d need to take. Lola Lu will get a long way back and is slight value, but where the true value sits is in Honey Steel’s Gold. This is a horse that is back down to the lowest grade it has found in a very long time… a horse that measures up over this distance on past runs and by all reports is doing more than enough at home to give a sight today first up from the very positive barrier.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Honey Steel’s Gold – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $31/$7.30.
Flemington Race 5 – 2000m – Bitalli Handicap
1. Extra Zero: Flew home first up at Caulfield behind Burning Front running straight past Chance to Dance. Up to 2000m is ideal and this is a horse that has gone close in a G1 at course and distance in the past. 10YO but he is game as the day is long.
2. Master of Arts: Ran a nice race last start at course and distance but I thought he had every chance on the day with the tempo on. Very best is seen on a wetter surface than this and he really just hasn’t measured up to this type of grade of race for mine. Has to improve here.
3. Chance to Dance: Painful 0.1L 2nd last start at course and distance behind Koukram and beat Master of Arts on the day. Looks well enough suited here again with the claim but has to improve.
4. Goldstream: Finally put a run together last start at course and distance doing alot wrong on the day. Lane takes the ride and I’d expect him to be allowed to roll forward today so he doesn’t over-race. Big chance.
5. Swacadelic: Stays at 2000m again. Ran home nicely last start 5th to Kourkam beaten 0.5L. Very best is seen over further and i’ll stick to that story that i’m not convinced he beats every single one of these runners home over the 2000m.. back when over 2400m+.
6. Kourkam: Won the ‘spin the bottle’ finish and got the win with a very low weight. Only slightly up in weight today and will be every chance to win again here.
7. Flying Light: Landed the Trifecta of issues last start when he really should have bolted in, pulling up Lame, with Heat Stress and Thumps. 2 weeks between runs and the stable wouldn’t have him back here without being confident of a solid run today. Gets better in at the weights and is the clear front runner to control the tempo. Double down.
8. Leica Day: Past four runs have been well below the grade needed to measure up here. One i’m happy to take on.
9. Master Zephyr: Continues to run well without winning and not getting any change around in the weights. Has to improve.
10. Dandy Gent: One to take on based on previous runs. No thanks.
Comments: I’m very keen to double down today on Flying Light at the price on offer coming off a forgive run that has made the horses price more than double what I have it rated. The key danger and improver for mine is Goldstream and I have to at least saver bet (for a slight profit) at the odds. Every chance Goldstream will be backed into favourite on the day for mine.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Flying Light – 4 units @ $7.50 to win. Goldstream – 1 unit @ $7.50 to win.
Flemington Race 6 – 1100m – Inglis Dash
1. Rampage: Hasn’t won since 2015 as a 2YO. Last prep measured up in easier grades but never got a win. First time down the straight.
2. Barthelona: Ran nicely first up with 60kg down the straight in a slowly run race. Simply just not suited by the tempo on the day. Will be much stronger tempo today and looks well suited here.
3. Capannello: Stole the win last start from on speed with a slow tempo at course and distance in 3YO grade. Much harder here and has to improve.
5. Selenia: Personally feel she is much better a horse than the stable mate. Some very nice runs last prep including 2.2L 4th to Spright at course and distance. Have to respect.
6. If Not Now When: Not the wrost run last start behind Capannello but it wasn’t great. Has to improve.
7. Land of Plenty: Group 2 2nd to Hey Doc as a 3YO over 1600m. Looks too short here.
8. Ebenos: Snowden runner and they have a great strike rate bringing horses down.. but this is a BM-64 grade winner who has to improve. Not for mine.
9. Perpetual Crisis: 2YO winner at Donald. First up wasn’t bad at all behind Into Orbit. Massive improvement needed to measure up here.
10. Magnetar: Hayes stable runner that has been running up in Sydney the past two starts. Been very poor. Has to find lengths on current form.
11. Rata Tat Tat: 2YO Bool winner on heavy last prep before failing in a G3 on Good track. Clearly has ability on what we have seen but not convinced to this level.
12. Casque: Average form heading into this and one I want to take on.
13. Shadow Fighter: BM-64 grade winner in fair time on soft last start. Has ability but needs to improve.
14. Deal Master: Maiden only winner. Struggle to suggest on last start run.
15. Fuhryk: Very good win at Moonee Valley last start and continues to go through the grades. One to beat here.
16. Savanna Amour: 3Yo winner first up over 1100m in nice time. Respect her class.
17. Ribbon of Choice: Maiden winner. Not a bad run two back behind Inside Agent. Others preferred.
Comments: Wide open race. Going the 4 I like most in the quaddie and that’s it.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 15, 16
Strategy: Back Fuhryk and Barthelona.
Flemington Race 7 – 1000m – Kensington Stakes
1. Flamberge: For mine, weight has never been an issue for this bloke. His last four runs have been horrible coming off a Group 1 and WFA-G1 win. Rawiller booked for the ride is certainly critical for me… he goes very well down the straight on a firm track and may just want summer back which he gets here.
2. Tivaci: Very strong prep in the Winter with some solid Group 1 showings. Was nice first up also down the straight fairly beaten by Faatinah in Group 2 class. Has ability and can measure up here, but obviously has to show it.
3. Churchill Dancer: Loves the straight course. Measured up in Group class last prep over the 1200m with a respectable 4th in a Group 1 and 2nd in WFA-G2 on the record. Never won first up is the issue and never won over 1000m.
4. Hellbent: Very very very good horse. Goes well down the straight and certainly looks to come back in fine fashion here. Lane gets the ride over Rawiller which is interesting to me. Looks short first up the only issue but weighted so well.
5. Grane: Goes well down the straight but failed the past two starts. Hard to suggest in this grade.
6. Kayjay’s Joy: Poor only run last prep. Previous prep won a mares grade sprint and failed in Group 3 class. Looks below this grade on ratings.
7. Well Sprung: Listed grade horse that hasn’t measured up to the grade of these runners today in the past. Inconsistent type and never won first up.
8. El Divino: Lightly raced 3YO Weir colt. 2YO-G3 winner over Astern on the record which is nice to have but last prep didn’t show much.
9. Super Fun: Proved last prep to be a nice type of horse. First up ran nicely without being overly impressive beaten by Thermal Current. Has to improve.
10. Kirani: Huge run 2nd first up at course over 1100m. Can obviously run well but poorly weighted against Hellbent etc.
12. Little Indian: Ran horrible last start after a very good run down the straight over the 1000m. Up in grade again doesn’t help.
Comments: Strange old race this one. Hard to be with old mate Flamberge today giving Hellbent 8kg. Hellbent is weighted to win this hands down.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 8
Strategy: Hellbent to win.
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – Patrobas Handicap
1. Entre Nous: First up (never won first up) at a track where he has never won or placed and in a high level class race. Top weight and even with claims may find it hard here over the 1400m for mine. Has to be flying to win.
2. Divine Mr Artie: Well back in class today to a very suitable grade. Won at course over 1200m three runs back in this grade by 3L in a very strong time. Two back they crawled and he wasn’t suited while start start he overraced and did a lot wrong on the day. Final chance today.
3. Mubakkir: Adelaide runner over here for a second attempt at Flemington. Has been going well in Listed/Open grade back home with placings behind decent horses like Cavaloce and Boggoms. The testing material today.
4. The New Boy: Bad run last start after some very nice runs the three runs before that, two of those with bad luck. Well suited in this grade but has to find his best.
5. Bradman: Winning form is generally good form especially for a horse of this quality. Well enough in at the weights and won previous over 1400m at this track.
6. Duibio: Smashing win last start at Ballarat before a spell over the 1400m. Has a good record at Flemington, but he has the past few preps taken a run in to find his very best. Clearly a horse to beat today.
7. Sadaqa: First up today over slightly short a distance of his best. Didn’t get a win last prep and has only had a short break. Struggle to suggest even in this grade first up.
8. Top Me Up: Ruined his own race last start by overracing and never settling going around too fast. Will have a few others hassling him on speed again today and needs to find the level of the two back run to be in this.
9. Shockaholic: Bit run last start at Caulfield back to form when just beaten by Bradman on the day. Had a few genuine excuses and finds himself well weighted.
10. Atlantic City: Stable hasn’t been going well as of late and last start was a huge push up in grade but ran very well. Up to 1400m today.
Comments: Divine Mr Artie has the runs on the board for me this prep and stepping back to this class finds a race with enough speed on and a gate that should see him get a midfield position.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 5, 6, 8, 9
Strategy: Divine Mr Artie – 1.5 units @ $5.00
Flemington Race 9 – 1800m – VRC Young Members’ Handicap
1. Glorious Sinndar: Hurdler. Also won over 2350m on the flat last prep but best seen on wetter. Struggle to suggest here with the weight on the flat.
2. Golden Mane: Two runs this prep in harder grade for well beaten 4.5L defeats on both occasions. Back to a grade he hasn’t seen in a while and back up over the 1800m. Best seen at 2000m so have to respect here if back to form.
3. Hipparchus: Ran very well last start behind Domino Vitale over the 1600m. Up to 1800m is ideal and wants speed on which there looks to be here. Will run very well and be hard to hold out.
4. London Fog: Ran wide last start at the Bool in the Refulgent race and was a good improvement. On previous runs he continues to run well and back to 1800m will have every possible. Winning chance.
5. Patch Adams: Poor last start at the bool off an okay run behind Lucky Paddy before that. Not sure the form lines are the ones I want to follow here at all.
7. Gervais: Held out Crocodile Rock last start at Flemington in a huge improvement over the 1600m in easier grade. Crocodile Rock has gone well up in distance since and blown a field away. This guy was very very good last start and a repeat of that run at these weights will have him well in the finish.
9. Manapine: Fair improvement last start at Sandown when 2nd to Lady Selkirk… but that was really a small field and was still beaten a long way. Has to improve here and won’t find his best until 2400m+ on previous form.
10. Hennybodys: Surprise winner last start at Sandown beating Unfurl who has come out and won since at Caulfield on Thursday. Big jump in class again and hard to justify.
11. Battlecamp: Bolting last start at Pakenham when just couldn’t find a run. Should have smashed in that day. Clearly flying and step up in class is a bit ambitious but well weighted and suited by Flemington.
Comments: Battlecamp and Gervais are the ones to beat on my form while Hipparchus is well up there as well. At the prices Gervais will be in a very good spot and the horse leading at the 200m staying on strongly and hard to get past.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7, 11
Strategy: Gervais E/W
