Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington on 25 April 2017. Wishing all our followers a happy and safe ANZAC day and a big shoutout and thank you from all of the team at The Profits to our service men and women both active and retired for keeping us safe so that we can enjoy the freedoms we currently take for granted. Coming off a disappointing day at Caulfield, we look to bounce back at this Flemington meeting where we feel we have found an edge in quite a few races with the best bet being a very confident bet. From reports i’m expecting the track to play fairly with those coming wider having every chance to make up ground. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the wider drawn runners in the straight race take a chance down the grandstand side. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
*Caution for those betting into the 1400m races today R3 & R4* – The 1400m-1200m area is in the Heavy range which could contribute to throwing up some strange results or under-performance from a few runners.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 – Hans Holbein – 5 units @ $2.10 to win.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Milwaukee – 2 units to win @ $3.90. 3 units to place @ $1.73
Other Best Bets
Flemington Race 1 – Real Love – 1.5 units @ $4.80 to win. Amelia’s Star 1 unit @ $7.00 to win
Flemington Race 5 – Single Note – 1 unit @ $6.00 to win.
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 7
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 10, 11, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1800m – Long Tan Handicap
1. Real Love: Maps to get a rails run to shut off and finish off when needed. Obviously has claims with a strong medium to late sprint. Ignore last start on soft and rate on two previous runs. Last prep won a 2040m Group 3 by 3L and ran 5th in the Caulfield Cup. Clearly good enough.
2. Tom Melbourne: Hasn’t won since early 2016 at Albury and has gone around single figures the past 10 runs apart from last start in WFA-G1 grade. Strangely scratched from Caulfield a few weeks back and aimed at this. Expect they will go forward from the wide barrier but allow Sadaqa to set the tempo.
3. Amelie’s Star: Went through the grades as a 3YO and got a Group 3 race by 3.3L at Rosehill over 2400m. 2 years off and ran very well first up over 1600m 1.7L 4th behind Royal Rumble who has won since. Will be sitting back and has the closing speed to be a huge factor.
4. Dylanson: Bm-90 winner over 1600m last prep. Failed to get close in any other run though so mixes form. Not up to this level of class though over this distance first up.
5. Neverland: Very hard horse to catch and hasn’t won since 2015. Now with Weir yard. Best in the past has been over 2400m. Obviously has the class to run well but on last prep can’t back.
6. Pin Your Hopes: Hasn’t sown anything on two occasions this prep. Huge step up in class here and I just can’t see it. Huge take on.
8. Sadaqa: Change of tactics last start at Caulfield to lead and pushed the tempo along over the first run at 1600m this prep with a low weight and got the win. Step up in class here but he honestly looks well weighted and should stay the distance. Track patterns against him though.
9. Zasorceress: Big step up in class again. Failed last start on the Heavy at Rosehill and stepping back to a firmer track at Flemington. Goes well here and was 0.1L 2nd in FM-GP3 two back at course over 1600m. Have to respect but needs to improve.
Comments: I’m a Tom Melbourne fan, but you can keep him here. Keen to be backing both Real Love and Amelia’s Star at the odds on offer. I like that both our runners map off the speed and will come out wider in the straight.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Real Love – 1.5 units @ $4.80. Amelia’s Star 1 unit @ $7.00
Flemington Race 2 – 2500m – FLT Lt Peter Armytage Handicap
2. Purple Smile: Never suited last start by the 2000m and even 2500m is short of his best which is clearly over further than this and in easier company. Has to improve to be a factor at the weights for me.
4. Angelology: Rockhard fit horse that won very well last start over 3600m on the hurdles. Previously ran very well at Oakbank over 2150m and actually measures up to this distance quite well.
5. Hans Holbein: Richard of Yorke won well two back at Bendigo to frank the form of the Bendigo run. Last start at Caulfield in similar grade just gave Boom Time too easy a time out front and covered significantly further ground wise in run. Down in weights and the claim has him very well in here. Maps Well and most importantly, Assign will be making sure it’s a true staying contest.
6. Rock On: Looked a really good type last start when ran well 2.8L 3rd to Big Duke on the heavy coming off a nice 2500m listed win over in NZ. Certainly a strong stayer but is he up to this level is the question. Better chance than most.
7. Lucques: Last win at course and distance in open class was very good from on speed. Tough staying type but last start run was poor in comparison to a few others today. Has to find a few lengths of improvement.
10. Unique Assassin: Huge run 3rd two back in an okay race but form around that since has been horrible. Ignore last start. Place at best. 5th more like it.
Comments: This is a pretty competitive race. I have to go with the clear class runner in the race in Hans Holbein. This is a horse that needs the pace on and while he no longer gets the race setup by his teammate Assign who has been scratched, i’m convinced he is the quality stayer in this race with Rock On really the only danger. Richard of Yorke franked the form also on the weekend. Loves it soft.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Hans Holbein – 5 units @ $2.10
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – William Newton VC Handicap
1. Another Coldie: Went around a well backed favourite last start at Caulfield after two good wins in Adelaide, but he failed to fire on the day fairly beaten 2.5L. Up to top weight here isn’t ideal but may just need the longer straight.
2. Archie Luxury: CL1 winner at Pakenham last start. Big jump in grade and up to 1400m. Has to improve stacks again.
3. Apiata: A horse that has been well backed on many occasions but has rarely delivered the goods. Two back at Sandown put in a solid run in BM-64 grade but failed on the heavy last start at Randwick in harder company when backed into single figures. Best is good enough.
4. Petition: Maiden winner at Geelong first up. Last prep measured up to 3F-SWP and 3F-LR grade over these distances. Will be getting back and running on strongly. Will need to be good but looks the real deal.
5. Set The Bar High: Bm-64 grade 2nd at Stawell as the lead in run. Failed only run course and distance last prep in easier grade. Hard to suggest.
6. Saxophone: Godolphin runner that won a Geelong maiden very well tow back before going down 0.2L at Balarat in BM-64 grade to a good type in Think Babe. Has to improve onwards again. Tough barrier.
7. Ridgway: Maiden horse. Has lost as $4.30, $1.20, $1.40 and $2.10 favourite in races in the past. Huge step up in grade here. Hard to suggest the win.
8. Soho Ruby: Hard horse to rate. Big maiden winer last prep and then won well in 3FB-64 grade. First up this prep over the 1200m actually ran well over the unsuitable and last start beaten 0.1L at Bendigo as favourite in FMB-70 grade. Steps back to own year class today.
9. That Rings A Bell: Maiden winner. Beaten favourite last two starts in MUCH easier grades of races. Hard to suggest the required improvement here for mine but I know a few that fancy this horses potential.
10. Set To Go: Couldn’t win a maiden heading in. Struggle to suggest to place.
11. Kaptive Hero: BM-64 second last start in poor time. Maiden winner over 1200m. Has to improve to be considered.
Comments: Another Coldie, Apiata and Petition look the main chances on paper. All three favourite chances go back and I want to be with the wider drawn of the pair in Apiata and Petition.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back both Petition and Apiata.
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – ANZAC Day Stakes
1. Speed Street: Strong 2YO win last start at Bendigo. Je Suis Tycoon failed on the weekend at Caulfield though as favourite in a similarly classy race. Clearly a good horse… but 1000m up to 1400m? Only Waterhouse!
2. Merchant Navy: Went around a VERY short price in 2YO grade last start at Sandown and smashed the opposition. Clearly good enough.
3. Casino Fourteen: Looks the speed runner here coming off a start to finish win at Echuca in maiden class. Big step up in class.
4. Malzoom: Another Hayes 2YO winner. Ignore first up fail and made up for it second up leading all the way over 1300m in a slow enough time. Rates okay.
5. Platinum: 2YO grade 1L 2nd to Merchant Navy last start at Snadown. Has to improve to beat this lot.
11. Remember The Name: 2YOF 5th last start behind Artstrum. Failed previous two runs in maiden grade. Step up needed again to get the win.
12. Persian Empire: First up runner for the Busuttin yard. Hasn’t been backed in the market yet.
Comments: Expect Speed Street to sit on speed with Casino Fourteen while Merchant Navy will sit midfield today. Merchant Navy is the class runner and looks hard to hold out.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Merchant Navy to win.
Flemington Race 5 – 1600m – FMB-84
1. Single Note: Consistent type that continues to go from strength to strength this prep having won four in a row. Will be on speed and I reckon they might try take a sit if possible today but the barrier makes it tough. Looks suited.
2. Duchess Kate: 3F-Gp3 winner over 1600m at the start of last year but failed to get within 2L of a win since. Two runs this prep and had no real issues and has been poor on both occasions. Best is good enough but hard to suggest.
3. Amarela: Always had top class ability and can measure up well in this grade on past performances. Good run 4th last start in this grade at Caulfield behind Ma Jones and will be suited back at home here from a good barrier.
4. Monogram: Every chance 2nd up in easier company behind Single Note last start. Previous preps suggest she is good enough but better over further.
6. Miles of Krishan: Lightly raced but certainly a hard horse to catch. Went around favourite first up over 1200m at Mornington and got back and was beaten by an on speed runner. Up in class here but up to a more suitable distance. Certainly has ability but needs to improve onwards again.
7. Quilate: Lost on Protest last start at Caulfield to Ma Jones in this class from on speed. Good enough time run and she will be running well again here based on current form lines.
8. Typhoon Monaco: 2.5L win over 2040m last start at Moonee Valley. Up in class and back in distance here. Respect her ability but won’t get an easy time today on speed.
9. Miss Universe: Won two in a row in much easier grades of races. Up in distance and well up in class certainly makes it tough.
10. Savannah Moon: Never really measured up to this level of grade in the past outside of one very solid run on a soft track at MV in F&M class for 4th over 2040m. Two runs leading in over 1400m have been only average. Has to improve significantly.
11. Phoenix Park: Cranbourne winner last start in MUCH easier grade of race. Obviously a horse going through the grades this prep but this is a huge ask.
12. Evil Lil: Not the worst runner here. Ran nicely 3rd behind Famelist last start. Back to a dryer surface a negative though on form lines.
Comments: I’m happy to have a play here on one well suited runner at nice odds. Single Note brings a streak of wins into this race with strong times run leading in. Looks well suited to the long straight. Clear dangers are Miles of Krishan and Quilate. I want to take on Typhoon Monaco today and Amarela gets too far back for me today today while I can’t trust Duchess Kate to bring her A game either (which would be good enough to measure up).
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 6, 7
Strategy: Single Note – 1 unit @ $6.00.
Flemington Race 6 – 2800m – VRC St Leger
2. Baykool: Won two in a row over the 2000m distances in maiden and 3yb-70 class. Has to improve onwards and upwards again here but High Chap bred and should get the distance.
3. Rock and Swing: Cummings yard hasn’t exactly been flying this autumn for mine in comparison to previous years. He was backed in the two heavy track races over 2000m leading into this but found nothing on the wet. Back to dryer could change the form around here?
4. Dornier: 2100m BM-58 3rd last start on heavy. Previous runs failed to place this prep… struggle to suggest this one.
5. High Mode: Blocked for runs at critical stages last start at Caulfield 5th beaten 7L behind Lycurgus. Obviously looks a stayer and would be suited by a wet track i’d imagine on breeding.
6. Jamieson: Laing stayer. Last prep got out over 3200m but couldn’t place in BM-64 grade. Got a 1600m maiden win this prep but shown nothing since. Can stay but not sure good enough.
7. Brutus Rex: Maiden winner last start over 2420m at Mornington. Obviously looks a type that will improve onwards and upwards as we get out over further.
8. Golden Authority: Cumani runner. Maiden win first up before beaten over 2156 last start at Terang when didn’t really have any excuses. Clearly needs to improve lengths up to the 2800m today to beat the best here but is well bred.
9. Marketplacer: Couldn’t win a maiden this prep from 2000-2420m. Was only 0.8L off Brutus Rex but clearly not going as well as a few others here.
10. Parthesia: Ran an absolute blinder last start at Caulfield over the 2400m when looked the winner 200m out before Lycurgus came home hard outstaying this quality filly who did a LOAD of work throughout the race. Up to 2800m no issues and a less taxing run would give her every chance to win here.
11. Miss Strathallan: Ran home well last start at Caulfield infront of Parthesia and behind Lycurgus. Was only 2.8L off Farson over 1800m as well three back. Clearly wants further again and looks well in.
12. Penthouse Kitten: Maiden winner. Failed to place last start over 2020m in BM-58 grade makes it hard to suggest.
Comments: Wide open race with several different form lines. Favourite scratched overnight opens up several different form lines to be able to win. Parthesia is the one I really think can be suited here to win while Golden Authority on speed is one to watch out for.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 8, 10, 11
Strategy: Parthesia E/W
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – Auckland Racing Club Trophy
1. Milwaukee: If the front runners are having every possible chance today then Milwaukee will be very hard for any of these horses today to get passed. Only looks to be one other horse on mapping that will try and push forward, but I doubt they will contest Milwaukee. Absolutely sensational time run last start over 1400m at Bendigo and that form line has held up significantly with Sword of Light in the last on Saturday. Looks the real deal.
2. Egg Tart: Smashed them last start at Warwick Farm on a Heavy track with top weight. Personally think the horse will be even better back to the firmer surfaces as well. Up to 1600m is ideal. Maps awkwardly is the issue but will be flying home late to try and run down Milwaukee or whoever is infront at the 100m.
3. Exocet: Tough horse to follow the past few preps with her inconsistency. Two runs this prep over 1200m and 1400m were fair but not great. Huge jump in class here and has to improve loads to even place.
4. Spanner Head: 3YO-64 14 horse race win last start – easy 1.5L win. Loves a long straight and has run well here in the past also 2nd to Tavi Bay Spring Carnival week. Can run well again.
5. Red Prince: Bm-64 winner at Pakenham in slowish time last start. Others preferred for mine.
6. Missile Boom: Bm-64 2nd to Red prince when had every chance. Previous start won in Bm-64 grade by 2.3L on a soft track. Others look tougher.
7. So Poysed: Nice enough lead in runs. 4th behind Milwaukee two back at Bendigo before 0.3L 3rd last start behind Plenty to Like in 3YO grade over 1400m at Caulfield. Can run well again here from a nice barrier.
8. Butch Kissidy: 4L win at Pakenham in BM-64 grade two back. A long way back at Caulfield and hit the line well but was never really in the race. Has to improve.
9. Star Patriot: Won two in a row in much easier grades before running a respectable 2nd to Odeon two back.. but failed last start against Sword of Light at Caulfield. Others preferred for the win.
10. Seracena: Four runs and only won a maiden so far. Had the chances over distance in easier grade and wasn’t good enough. Not for mine here.
11. Cadabra: Maiden winner in nice enough time heading in. Certainly has a solid turn of foot. A win wouldn’t be a total shock here but I do believe the horse has to improve… tough barrier.
12. Nina Peak: Maiden winner first up. Last prep 2.1L 3rd in BM-64 grade best run. Struggle to suggest on expected improvement.
13. Polisher: Two runs this prep so lightly raced. 1400m Maiden winner in only fair time last start. Huge improvement needed to even figure.
15. Bo Zephyr: Maiden winner for the Griffiths yard before failing the next 3 runs. One to forget.
16. Khulekani: Couldn’t win a maiden over 1600m at the lead in. No thanks.
Comments: There are certainly some talented types in this race, but there is only one clear standout who is well over the odds and still backable partly each-way here in Milwaukee. Very keen to play.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8
Strategy: Milwaukee – 2 units to win @ $3.90. 3 units to place @ $1.73.
Flemington Race 8 – 1200m – RSl Handicap
1. Inspector: 3L off a Group 1 win two runs back at course and distance. Prevous run 2.2L 4th in Group 3. Clearly fling this prep and deserves top weight.
2. Play Master: Hasn’t shown anything in two preps and can’t see it today, especially with Froggy on.
3. Gallant Harmony: Horrible all three runs this prpe and would need a huge reversal of form to measure up.
4. Camdus: First up today after a very successful campaign last prep where he measured up in similar grades. Goes well first up and goes well down the straight having won here in the past. Respect.
6. Lake Como: Big win two back at course and distance in mares grade from on speed. Failed to fire last start at Caulfield though ridden off the speed that day. Back to this straight and will run better, but certainly hard to trust a repeat of that peak run.
7. Spreadeagled: Back to his best it felt like last start at Mornington when change of tactics to lead and was just claimed late in the piece. A month between runs is ideal and will be running well here.
8. Electric Fusion: Horrible first up and not a surprise as needs further. Struggle to suggest here.
9. Staviva: Terrible first up down the straight. Has previous run okay here for a 3rd.. but outside of that run has always failed here. Hard to suggest in this grade 2nd up on that first up run.
10. Boomwaa: Consistent type that runs well most the time. Huge run last start 2nd to Miss Gunpowder at Caulfield. Previously three back just beaten 0.2L 2nd here at course and distance. Clearly hard to beat.
11. Chamois Road: Short priced favourite over 1400m last start at Oakbank but claimed late. Pushed the tempo that day. Back to 1200m may help but has to improve again.
12. Chat to Maggie: Fairly beaten last start 2nd behind Lake Como down the straight. Big improvement needed to beat this field.
13. Coram: Struggles to just get the win and always runs well but 0.2L 0.4L and 0.5L defeats the past three starts says it all. Back to 1200m here but never won at Flemington…
Comments: Wide leg to finish the day. The price on offer for Inspector here is just stupid considering the lead in runs. Lake Como and Chaomois Road are awfully short and Camdus looks under the odds also. Boomwaa is more than the right price to play also.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 10, 11, 13
Strategy: Back both Boomwaa and Inspector.
