Welcome to The Profits preview from Flemington on 24 June 2017. Expecting a very even playing surface today with a slight lean to those that sit a little off the rail in the straight, but i believe they will be able to win from anywhere especially late in the day which is when we start to play heavy and hard. I will be on course as always watching them from the yard and look forward to providing you with my thoughts on Twitter. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Tshahitsi – 6 units @ $3.90 to win
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 9 – Samovare – 2.5 units @ $3.80. Widgee Turf – 1.75 units @ $5.50. Urban Ruler 0.75 units – @ $12
Best Each-Way Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Duke of Ellington – 1.5 units @ $7.50/$3.10
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 9, 11, 15
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 9, 10, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 17
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
If you prefer to hear the race by race thoughts with a bit more detail on runners i like, then watch the video below
Flemington Race 1 – 1400m – Gippsland Region Handicap 2YOs
1. American Genius: Finally got his win last start at Geelong but wasn’t exactly an easy win. Back to Flemington and handles the track just fine. Stays at 1400m.
2. Royal Symphony: Maiden winner in nice times and distance first up on the Synthetic. To the turf and up to 1400m both unknowns here.
3. Egyptian Bullet: Two wins in a row in maiden and then F&M BM-64 grade. Back to 2YO grade but much harder task.
4. River Jewel: Vobis Gold winner over 1300m at Swanhill last start. Clearly a horse with ability but has to improve every day.
5. Under Oath: Maiden winner at double figures last start at Pakenham from on speed. Others preferred than this maiden.
6. Amschel: Still a maiden having run 3rd first up. Strange placement but obviously think he can win.
8. Sully: Couldn’t win a maiden first up beaten 2.75L on soft. Huge jump in class and hard to suggest on what I saw there.
10. Wired: Well backed last start at Moonee Valley wide no cover but has her chance. Form out of this race around Behave hasn’t held up. Has to improve up to the 1400m today.
11. Whoomph: Pakenham maiden 7th last start. Struggle to suggest even a place.
12. Kardashing: Maiden win first up on Synthetic in slow time. Not for me here.
13. Anchor Bid: Another horse will a maiden. Every chance in same race and just not good enough. Take on.
14. Magic Mila: Huge run on speed the last start at Moonee Valley but it was very slowly run. Big step up here again but not sure she is good enough.
15. Indrabeel: Three runs and hasn’t gotten within 2L of a win in maiden class. Not terrible last start at MV but need to see the run. Win wouldn’t shock totally.
16. Royal Disguise: Couldn’t win a maiden leading into this and had chances both runs. Struggle.
Comments: Shocked to see the price on Royal Symphony. Would go with River Jewel and Egyptian Bullet but no confidence here.
Confidence 40%
Strategy: Back both River Jewel and Egyptian Bullet.
Flemington Race 2 – 1100m – Barwon South West Region Handicap 3YOs
1. Ashlor: Continues to win and win well this quality and back to the Flemington straight today. Trialled to keep fit and BM-90 and G2 grade back to 3YO grade looks very well suited here at weights.
2. Ken’s Dream: Been running okay but just not as good as previous runs 3 and 4 back. Goes okay down the straight but really does look better type around the turn. Need to improve for mine.
4. Invincible Al: Suited here. Huge run first up over the 1000m and flashed home in impressive time. Respect here. Weighted to win.
5. Miss Iano: Won three in a row but back to dryer tracks and up in class. Has to improve again.
6. Overstep: Nice enough run without winning the last start at Flemington, but was better the previous start over the 1200m. Steps back to 1100m here at Flemington and can run better with a sharper ride.
7. Blue Tycoon: Been there or there about all prep with a very good 3rd two back at Caulfield and flashing home the last start at Moonee Valley. Can win.
8. Wilde Gem: Two runs for two wins. Huge jump in class here and needs to be very good to win this. Low weight.
9. Mistoffelees: CL1 winner start of prep but then shown very little until the last start when sat on speed and ran quite well for third. Could surprise and place again.
10. Sacred Sham: Every chance just off the speed the last start, got through when needed found one too good again on the card. Hard to back with Al in this race.
11. Gasworx: CL1 winner last start.. maiden winning prior runs. Hard to suggest in city class the improvement.
12. Gougers: Went around a bit price last start at a course over 1000m and wasn’t terrible 7th.. but hard to have here.
13. Hay Bale: Got to the lead when needed in the race the last start but was fairly beaten off late by a few better sorts. Same weight today.
14. Oamaru: Nice enough run first up and better weighted here. Has to improve but has the ability.
Comments: Tough race. Hard to split Ashlor and Invincible Al while giving others at odds chances in the race.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back Ashlor and Invincible Al.
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – Loddon Mallee Region Handicap Mares BM-90
1. Tsarita: Waller runner that has been failing to close to a place the past two runs in harder company than this. Did run 4th in G3 company first up over 1300m. Maps nicely and improvement wouldn’t shock.
2. Vital Importance: Just ignore that she went around ridden on speed. Will be ridden back and cold today and finish off much better. Nicely suited.
3. Hell or Highwater: Needs a few runs to get going and I’d be shocked to see if she can measure up and blow this field away. Needs further.
4. Step the Pedal: Won five in a row down in Tasmania and loves any surface, but really finds her best on wetter. Writing on the wall and looks a very nice type. Respect.
5. Schism: There or there about’s the past four runs but failed to get a win on the board. Stays at 1400m but up in grade. Makes things hard here but weighted well.
6. Give Us a Go: Strong win at Bendigo in the Gold Bracelet and beat some nice types but hasn’t shown huge ability since on a consistent basis. Thought the two back run was good when a solid tempo but not suited the last start at Sandown. Good barrier today should get the right run today with 54kg. Over the odds.
7. Wine Tales: Meow. Non-winner but a trip down to Flemington couldn’t hurt. Second up and goes okay second up.
8. Mamzelle Tess: Strong run 2nd last start at Moonee Valley but found one too good on us. Can run well again here but barrier hurts and short backup also.
9. Niminypiminy: Covered 13 metres more than the winner the last start at Moonee Valley and just missed in an impressive run. Step up to 1400m certainly suits and can run well if handles the backup. 15 runs 0 wins on good.
10. Jacqui’s Joy: Hard horse to catch and rate. Not the worst run first up and okay 2nd up. Improvement needed.
11. Swiss Kiss: Good win first up at Wang in the easier company and then failed 3-wide the trip last start at Moonee Valley. Expect better today but has to improve.
12. Don’tbabylon: Nice win fro on speed the last start at Sandown. Only a fair BM-70 grade win and back to drier. Hard to suggest.
13. Born Magic: 3rd at Sandown last start but did find the line well. Has ability on runs this prep but another I’d have to take on.
Comments: One of the toughest races of the day. Could pick 4-5 runners.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Give Us a Go E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 2000m – Grampians Region Handicap BM-78
1. Duke of Ellington: Course and distance winner three back beating Hursley and Goodwill which has to be considered great form. Was a bit of a sit and sprint that day which well suited him. Last two runs have been tough brutal runs and he has been outstanding. This looks his race as long as he can find a good place from the wide barrier.
2. Xebec: Waller running import. First prep showed nothing in Sydney on wetter tracks. Previous prep over in UK measured up to handicap level. If going well has to be considered.
3. Lord Lumberjack: Failed to fire and show anything first up. Trial since didn’t give me much to go off. On the BM-84 2nd, last prep over 1600m have to consider but need to see the form today.
4. Encosta Line: Not the worst runner here. Made ground last start over 1800m but clearly, needs to improve on what showed there.
5. Sayed: Won well last start at Sandown in much easier company coming down from NSW. Was a race run and won on speed and this is a big step up.
8. Lautaro: Run here in the past but didn’t place. Coming off a win at Scone over 2200m in this grade but then failed down in grade at Warwick Farm. Well weighted but hard to catch horse.
9. Manapine: Horrible run first up over 1400m when did nothing. Previous prep measured up over 1600m and 2000m but very best in the past was over 2500m. hard to consider on current form but does look a good type.
10. Portion Control: Good run two back and then last start got the perfect ride but couldn’t sustain the run. Hard to see at this distance.
11. Houdini the Great: Swan Hill winner last start on softer. Back to city grade and up in class. Has to improve again to place and win.
12. Savannah Moon: Swan Hill winner in similar grade but this is much harder ask. Win wouldn’t be a total shock on three back run but clearly has to improve.
13. Sir Van Dyke: Mornington winner in BM-64 grade on heavy last start. On form hard to suggest here.
14. Ashlee Marie: F&M BM-70 winner last start at Sandown. Previous start in similar grade to this fairly beaten 2nd to Khutulun. Up in distance and harder grade back to the city.
15. Penryn Pearl: Weir winner with ability. Soft 5 win over 1800m last start. Taken a while to find a bit of form but clearly, has to improve significantly again here. Win wouldn’t shock.
Comments: Wide open race with no real ‘class horses’ in the race as indicated by the prices. Duke of Ellington for mine is by far the best horse in the race and as long as Benny T can get us in a nice spot throughout, I’m expecting he can explode past them in the straight and be hard to hold out.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Duke of Ellington – 1.5 units @ $7.50/$3.10
Flemington Race 5 – 2520m – North East Region Handicap
1. Megablast: Very strong run first-up at Moonee Valley when fitness faded from the horse late to just not see out the 2040m. Back in class here for mine and up to 2520 more suited for this horse that ran 4th in a G1 last prep over 3200m. Should get a nice position in run on speed and get a good run.
2. Mujadale: Broke his hurdle maiden last start in strong fashion coming off the good runs at course over longer. Back to 2500m today more suited but I do feel this is his absolute limit. Will be on speed rolling along with a strong tempo. Can win but obviously needs to run to best.
3. Nordic Flight: Looked okay in the lead in trial after a freshen up coming off two poor runs. This is pretty much D Day for the Group 3 placed 2800m German import.
4. Cougar Express: Huge on speed run two back at Moonee Valley when pushed to lead and just kept on going. Will be on speed with Mujadale today if they so desire and has to be respected. 28000m Heavy 10 hurdle trial win before the run today helps chances.
5. Falago: Get back run on type that won the last start at course and distance at big odds. Got the slingshot that day and refound form. Can win.
6. Hursley: Every chance for mine last start at Moonee Valley but fairly beaten. Also fairly beaten the run prior. First time at the distance and the speed is expected to be on which will make it tough. Testing material.
7. Shakopee: Sat off the speed and bolted in the last start over 2400m at Sandown in a nice race. Back to a firmer track not the best but should still handle it. Big step up in grade though today.
8. Bullish Stock: Very impressive win first up over the 1800m which looked unsuitable. Up to 2500m today and a hot tempo, just have to home he is fit enough staying wise to see this out, as he is a quality stamina horse on his day. Have to respect at weights from a good barrier.
9. Try Four: Just continues to run well without looking a winning hope. Should be over the Hurdles but hasn’t been and they just keep going to the flat trying to get a win. harder here but nicely in at weights again.
10. Charlevoix: Well backed the past few starts. Fairly beaten the last start given every chance at Flemington. Good barrier today and Blinkers on, but this is another step up in class.
11. Cinnamon Carter: Not the worst run 5th last start at course and distance. Has to improve.
13. Transfer Allowance: Good run 2nd two back at Sandwon in easier grade before failing at Sandown last start with no run. Never placed from 7 runs at this track in the past.
15. Benall: BM-58 winner and BM-64 grade winner. Fairly beaten the last start by Charlevoix. Has to improve.
16. Rock Icon: Couldn’t win a 0-58 last start.
Comments: Another tough race on the card. Mujadale is overs with Cougar Express both on speed runners but they probably do push us along very strongly out front. I couldn’t have Charlevoix here at the prices or Shakopee. Falago can win and I reckon Nordic Flight could show something. Megablast at the odds E/W has to be the place.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Megablast E/W
Flemington Race 6 – 1100m – 2017 Country Achiever Gerald Egan Handicap
1. Riziz: Won at the track in the past. 3kg claimer Sweeney onboard today. Very strong listed grade win at Oakbank and then won well over 1400m the next start as well at Morphetville on a softer track. Failed to fire in the Goodwood though and is freshened up after that defeat. Has to be respected on current form lines.
2. Thermal Current: At his best he more than measures up here, but it’s hard to suggest the win based on the Gold Topaz run. His run wasn’t too bad at Flemington the run prior in the worst part of the ground. A win wouldn’t shock.
3. Husson Eagle: Only fair to the line last start at the course over 1000m behind Lake Como. Better weighted overall today and continues to run well down the straight. Best is and always has been 1000m. Can run well as always.
4. Mighty Like: First up (won 3 placed 2 from 5 runs first up in the past!) over a distance he has never run over. Won first up last prep down the Flemington straight in easier grade. This is a tough ask first up but we have to respect and Beau takes the ride.
5. Palazzo Pubblico: Listed 3rd the last start at Doomben and trainer decided to come down to Melbourne interestingly after going via Sydney. Won in listed grade last prep at Caulfield but failed to place down the straight in Group 3 company but wasn’t disgraced. Certainly going well enough to feature.
6. Counter Pulse: Won two in a row over in Adelaide in Handicap and BM-90 class over the 1250m. Back down to 1100m but no issues having run very well in G3 company three back. In top form and has won 5 of last 7 and been 3rd and 5th between that. Huge chance.
7. Gun Case: Winner the last start at Morphetville in the easier company but it was certainly a return to form and a nice win. Never figured down the straight in the past but has the ability to run well.
8. Rough Justice: Ran nicely enough 2nd to Lake Como the last start from on speed. Fairly beaten on the day but no disgrace at all and well weighted. Up to 1100m even better suited.
9. Lake Como: Won well at the course and distance and still nicely weighted off that run up to 1100m. Goes well up in distance and looks perfectly ideally placed here again in a tough race.
10. Moonovermanhattan: Never figured over this distance in the past. Needs further.
12. Sunday Escape: On speed, last start at Sandown and ran very well to just miss from on speed. Put on a strong tempo and that will be on again today. Has won at the track in the past but better around a turn.
13. Play Master: Continues to run well but doesn’t win often. Looked well in the yard and also looked well in the race last start. Can run well again but tough to see him passing Lake Como.
14. Lord Von Costa: Nice enough type but the Santa Ana Lane form hasn’t exactly proven to be top quality so i Have a few queries over him measuring up here. Has won at the track in the past though
15. Ability: Smashing run first up and it looks even better on replay seeing how much ground he made up. Never placed at this track a big issue but certainly worthy of the step up attempt.
17. World of Hope: Tough ask back to dryer track (never won on Good) and hasn’t been able to win in 4 starts this prep in easier races.
18. Little Indian: Didn’t show anything first up even if held up. Good win last prep at track but shown nothing since.
Comments: Probably one of the toughest races of the day. Ability is flying but this is a tough ask up in this grade. Lake Como is a great price on the last start win and Riziz is also well overs on current form. Even Counter Pulse can’t be left out of numbers. Lots of chances.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 9, 15
Strategy: Back Lake Como and Riziz.
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – David Bourke Provincial Plate BM-90
2. Lucky Paddy: Not respected in markets first up in harder than this and ran poorly. Up to 1600m today more suited for this horse but this is certainly still above his best. Never placed from 5 attempts at the track and needs to improve.
3. By the Grace: Good run 2nd at the Bool first up on heavy but last two starts well beaten on Good tracks. Hard to suggest with a Good track again.
4. Artie’s Shore: Failed to show much the past few starts and hasn’t shown me enough this prep in general to suggest a win. Have to take on.
5. Elite Tiger: A type of limited ability. Was a good run last start over the 1400m when 3-wide no cover the trip and wasn’t exactly disappointing. Best is in easier class but can run well.
6. Rewarding Effort: Did enough first up this prep over the unsuitable 1000m but last start didn’t show me enough to suggest he is ready to roll here. Certainly, a nice type of horse but has to improve.
7. Hot Ruby: 2000m back to 1500m last start and ran very well at Moonee Valley. Up in class here but stays at 1600m here. Best seen over further but clearly runs well over this distance. Does map well.
8. Diamond Duke: Country grade runner. Two lead in runs suggest little. Better over further and 2000m+ is where he has shown his best runs. Would be shocked.
9. Trinity Hill: Very good run 2nd at Caulfield two back off a hot tempo out front. Last start over 1500m at Moonee Valley wasn’t suited by the way they ran the race and while finished off okay, wants it harder. Maps for the right run today.
10. Riyadh: Heavy track runner last start at Pakenham and got the win. Step up to 1600m no issues for this 7YO but this is a tough ask in this grade having never won in it before. Better over further.
11. Zagaya: Bm-70 grade winner three back but failed to get wins in easier last two starts. Best seen on wetter.
13. Super Rockstar: Bm-64 grade first up and failed to place. Hard to suggest on last prep form.
Comments: Not an overly strong race with several runners out of form coming into this race. Trinity Hill looks the value runner in the race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 5, 6, 7, 9
Strategy: Trinity Hill E/W
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – Brian Beattie Handicap
1. Royal Rapture: Fairly beaten last start at course and distance behind Tshahitsi but it was a very good effort for a horse looking to return to form. Obviously, has to improve again today to be measuring up for a win though.
2. Tshahitsi: Sat on speed last start setting a solid clip and kicked away from them impressively. The Echuca Cup form has held up and he looks a very very good prospect going forward. Well up in weight but hard to talk poorly of.
3. Hard Call: Well back in distance last start to 1400m and stays at that here strangely. Best seen over further. Not for mine.
4. Tried and Tired: Ran a very good race two back 3rd down the straight. Failed on the soft last start in the Gold Topaz and will go around a very big price here. Maps for a perfect run from barrier 4 and looks a great place price.
5. Swacadelic: Very hard horse to catch. Last good run was in the Sandown Cup over 3200m. This is 1400m today. No thanks.
6. Loyalty Man: Perfect spot last start but beaten 3L by Tshahitsi when still running well for second. Will run better second up today but clearly has to find lengths.
7. Lizard Island: Average return to the track coming off injuries and didn’t exactly flatter. Hard to suggest on what we have seen. Needs a few more runs.
8. Mio Dio: Gold Topaz winner last start on a soft rack coming off a solid run 3rd at Morphetville in handicap company. Query at this distance though with 7 runs for 1 place.
9. Cannyescent: Just continues to go through the grades this prep winning well. Got the IDEAL run just off the speed last start and beat a good field that includes Data Point and Thelburg. A more awkward barrier today in 12 and will get further back than they would like. Clearly, can win but needs another good ride. Well down in weights suits.
10. Invinzabeel: Waller runner with Williams onboard today. BM-93 winner two back at Rosehill on a Soft 5 and was a very good 2L victory from just off the pace. Held up last start behind the leader but was a good run without presenting. Can run better today but certainly has to return to the run of two back.
11. Don Doremo: Needs further.
12. Typhoon Jolie: Hasn’t placed in 4 runs this prep but was a decent run on speed last start at Morphetville in G3 company. Step up to 1400m doesn’t appear to be hugely ideal but clearly has the ability.
13. Bling Dynasty: 2500m winner last prep. Wasn’t terrible actually first up at Mount Gambier over 1200m and while 1400m doesn’t look ideal, he can run okay.
15. My Paisann: Race won by swoopers so was set up from out front for them by My Paisann that day. Certainly looks a nice enough type… was actually G1 placed in New Zealand 400 days ago on heavy. Wouldn’t be shocked to see an improved run from this barrier.
Comments: Keen on the chances of Tshahitsi here today coming off that solid win last start at course and distance. Up in weight but still well suited. Cannyescent will get much further back than last start which is why I have to take the horse on as i’m not convinced it has the turn of foot required to close them down here. Invinzabeel is a horse that has to be respected. Tried and Tired and My Pasisann both map well and look to have the potential at odds to win so they go in the Quaddie.
Confidence 90%
Quaddle Leg Three: 2, 4, 9, 10, 15
Strategy: Tshahitsi – 6 units @ $3.90 to win.
Flemington Race 9 – 1600m – Bay and Ranges Region Handicap – 3YO
1. Urban Ruler: Been going through the grades this prep and has to be respected after a very good win at course and distance last start. Has to improve at the weights though is the big issue today. Will push forward from wide.
2. Widgee Turf: Good win last start at Sandown and had a trial in-between runs to keep the fitness increasing. Up to 1600m looks positive and won in this grade the last start. Has more improvement to come today and has to be respected from the barrier.
3. Samovare: In easier grade first up at Flemington found one too good in pedrena when held up for runs at the wrong time. It wasn’t anywhere near her best run that day and we know her best is brilliant based on the G3 win over 1600m last prep in WA. Will improve lengths today I’d imagine and will be hard to hold out from a very positive barrier.
4. Greviste: Tough 3YO handicap win last start at Moonee Valley circling the field off a hot tempo out front. Looks well suited back to Flemington but he will need to be very good to circle this field and win from back.
5. Jaws of Steel: Nice win two back at Sandown on softer and then wide no cover beaten heavily the last start at Moonee Valley. Can run much better today but has to improve.
6. What a Shock: Horrible two and three back but returned to form the last start at Ballarat from on speed on a wetter track. They didn’t run along overly fast and the horse was suited and won well. This is significantly harder and I question the horse being good enough for this.
7. Cannot Be Serios: Sandown placed the last start behind some horses that wouldn’t be winning here… but he got a very long way back and closed strongly. His best is probably good enough to run well but barrier hurts all chances will be a long way back.
8. Wayanka: Waller runner down from Sydney. Progressed through the grades this prep and certainly fights to the line but may just be a step below these on quality on what we saw the last start. Has to improve. Barrier helps.
9. Jaminzah: Good winner last start in MUCH easier race when niggled along but stormed home. Looks to have a load of ability but will get a fair way back again today even from a better barrier.
10. The Passage: Fairly beaten the last start at Moonee Valley in a race that was a tough slog not a sit sprint.. Poor barrier will mean a poor spot in run and it’s hard to see him winning today.
11. Captain Rhett: Nice type but showed his best clearly in the past over further. Did run very well third in G3 over 1800m at Caulfield last prep but happy to just take on here.
14. Thaad: Hawkes runner down from Sydney. Failed to win in 3Y BM-66 the last start from back at Canterbury and never placed on a Good track. Others look better but the run two back had merit.
15. Zatacla: Tasmanian runner first up in Victoria off a CL2 Heavy win. Hard to see the class to measure up here on what I’ve seen to date.
16. Barbie’s Boy: Looked nice tow back at Sandown behind Widgee Turf but failed to fire the last start in easier. Have to take on from the barrier.
17. Star Major: Sale maiden winner first up. Wasn’t an overly fast time but won very well. Would be surprised to see him winning but I expect he can figure.
18. Atlantic Express: Nice enough run from off the speed at Moonee Valley but never a chance in the race and didn’t threaten 5th. Others preferred today.
19. Simply Invincible: Fairly beaten in BM-70 grade the last start at Sandown behind Yogi. Step back to 3YO grade today is positive but 6 runs for 0 places on Good tracks doesn’t give confidence.
20. Trump This: Doubtful to get a run… nice run the last start at Sandown from last but Jaminzah was better.
Comments: Large number of runners and I can see Greviste and The Passage getting too far back to be a factor along with talented types like Jaminzah. Samovare, Widgee Turf and Urban Ruler are the three clear standouts, but at the weights, it’s impossible for me to look around Samovare and Widgee Turf in particular who map to get runs in the front half and midfield. Both will have their chances off what doesn’t look a brutal tempo. Urban Ruler gets the run of the race on speed and will be hard to get past.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 17
Strategy: Samovare – 2.5 units @ $3.80. Widgee Turf – 1.75 units @ $5.50. Urban Ruler 0.75 units – @ $12
