Welcome to The Profits preview from for Flemington on 22 July 2017. We head back to headquarters at Flemington this week for a very competitive card of racing as the form heading into Spring starts to pick back up. We had a very successful day on Wednesday with a $4 and $51 winner (starting prices of $12 and $63 on betfair) to get us back on track and we hope to continue onwards and upwards today at Flemington where we haven’t had the greatest of luck in recent weeks. Our best bet of the week is Ken’s Dream as the horse finally steps up to 1400m and down in class. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
*Please note the heavy wind conditions 35-40km – but it is a Northerly predicted at this time which shouldn’t have a BIG impact apart from presenting rails runs*
Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Ken’s Dream – 5 units @ $4.00 to win
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 9 – Hay Bale – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $10/$3.30
Other Bets
Flemington Race 8 – Princess of Queens – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.75
Flemington Race 7 – Victory Downs – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $10/$3.00
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1600m – VRC Recognition Handicap
1. Riyadh: Two wins this prep but did get all the luck and the right run last start to score the win in a low grade race for mine. Step up in distance suitable but this is also a step up in grade again. Has to improve at weights.
2. Ebediyin: Hard to judge this UK import that won in 3YO grade and beat home Kellstorm by 2 lengths. Went onto run 5th at Royal Ascot in the Queen’s Vase over 3200m but G1 runs the next two starts (was $5 in the Irish Derby) were less than great. Never seen a dry track but did trial well on the lead in.
3. Electric Fusion: Hasn’t won in city grade in a while but best is over these distances from the past. Shown nothing this prep.
4. Lamborghini: NZ import that ran in Adelaide last prep and ran okay with the first up run 2nd to Royal Rumble beating It and a Bit certainly good enough to respect. Down in weights with claim.
5. Gervais: Boxed on nicely first up in a much easier race over the unsuitable 1400m firs tup and stepping up to 1600m will be better for the run. Best is over slightly further in the past but clearly, this is back in grade today and has to be respected.
6. Approved Anger: Stuck on strongly last start at Caulfield off a very strong tempo and finished only 1.5L off them. This actually looks much easier. Can run well.
7. Commanding Time: Two runs this prep after 400 days off and failed to impress in easier grades of races. Up in distance is suited but 6 runs 0 wins at this track and is now a 9yo. Hard to suggest.
8. Dollar for Dollar: Strong McEvoy runner that last prep ended with a strong win at Ballarat from on speed over this distance. Won well first up over 1400m and failed on a heavy track the next start. Back to dryer here and up to 1600m. Respect.
9. Best Suggestion: Always had ability to be there or there abouts in most races but hasn’t measure dup to this grade in a while and is 0 places from 4 starts at this distance in the past. Last start only fair.
10. Spearhead: Ballarat winner two back over 1400m and ran poorly last start at Caulfield last week. Quick turn around here.
Comments: This is a very wide open race and I’m expecting the speed to be on throughout with Dollar for Dollar having to do a fair bit of early work to get over. Gervais and Approved Anger will push forward also to find positions. This sets the race up for a few swoopers I like and the one that represents value is Lamborghini. 3kg claim from the Patty Payne yard that is flying, this horse ran very well over 1800m last prep around horses of this level over in Adelaide and looks well in with a 3kg claim.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lamborghini E/W
Flemington Race 2 – 1600m – Wilson medic One Rising Stars Final
1. Hell or Highwater: Horse will be peaking this run today after getting a nice run over 1400m last start but in the wrong part of the track for mine. Ran nicely and looks to get the lead here. Can run them around at the right tempo. Key 2kg claim.
2. Step the Pedal: Disappointing run last start at course over 1400m behind Schism. Came over here with some good Tassy form but just didn’t measure up. Not sure the step up to 1600m is better either.. wants it softer.
3. Dulverton: Has been running much better and more consistently this prep and showed her best run of the prep last start at Sandown on a Soft 5 track when sustained a strong long run. Never really found her best on Good tracks and looks to be a horse that needs give in the ground. Won’t get it here.
4. Jacqui’s Joy: Ran on okay enough late two back but was only fair late at Flemington last start. Step up to 1600m is ideal and blinkers off and tongue tie on key. 3kg claimer also helps here.
5. Sea the Sparkle: Weir runner that has won 3 of 4 career runs. Won very well first up at Sandown on a softer track and failed in her only run on a Good track in the past at Flemington when wide no cover. Should handle but this is certainly testing material today.
6. Diapason: Waller runner that has run second twice in a row on the lead in after a win at Cranbourne. 1800m back to 1600m today and maps to sit midfield.
7. Forty Nine Riddles: Wang BM-58 winner two back but failed to fire in BM-70. This is harder.
Comments: I want to be against Dulverton and Step the Pedal on a dry track today while Sea the Sparkle is very much an unknown on it also. Diapason continues to run consistently well but I’m just not convinced of how good the horse is. I think Hell or Highwater gets its chance here today on speed while Jacqui’s Joy has been running well enough in harder class to suggest a win could be on the cards today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Hell or Highwater and Jacqui’s Joy.
Flemington Race 3 – 1800m – Byerley Handicap
1. Antipas: Geelong synthetic 2nd on the lead in here. Has to improve but looks a nice type and will improve up to 1800m.
2. Justice Faith: Two runs this prep and hasn’t been close on either occasion. Blinkers on.
3. St Vaduz: Pakenham 3rd first up and 4th at Bendigo on heavy… straight up from 1300m to 1800m. Mertens keeps the ride and Winkers on.
4. Anchor Bid: Looks very hard to beat today coming off a 2nd behind Royal Symphony over 1600m from well back. Come up short today!
5. Tarcisius: Two runs this prep beaten 13L and 8L. Up to 1800m but even so hard to suggest.
6. Wanted Harmony: beaten 16L and 9L on lead in runs over 1200m and 1000m. Straight up to 1800m so unknown really.
7. Think Diamonds: Hasn’t shown alot the first two runs but does look on breeding to want the extra distance. Stable known what they are doing.
8. Leicester Rocket: Four runs this prep and wasn’t beaten too far last start in maiden grade from on speed over 1600m. Not the worst here.
9. Miss Admiration: Beaten 3.4L last start on heavy over 1300m. Hard to know really on the two lead in runs.
Comments: Anchor Bid clearly the horse to beat. I couldn’t on current form give you any other indication but will be looking from the yard.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Anchor Bid to win.
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – Murray Cox Handicap
1. Del Prado: Two average runs this prep before a good 4th in much easier grade last start from out the back but was beaten by Nesbo. Has to improve here again.
2. Shamkiyr: Weir runner that showed a little bit last prep but never quite got to the form required to win. Good trial lead in and while the horse has never won over 1400m I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see him go close in this grade today off the lead in trials.
3. Eximius: Went back to the country and found a winnable race and got the money over Giddyup and In Fairness on a softer track. Much harder back to the city and firmer track today but Webb has got him going well enough.
4. Ken’s Dream: Well back in class today and this looks the right race for him to find a win. I’ve been against him the past three runs when he has been well supported and I really felt he needed a step back in class and up in distance and that is what we get here. Barrier is the only issue along with speed in the race.
5. Majestic Duke: Two runs this prep and both were average at best. 1600m back to 1400m now and has to clearly find some form. Will be trying to lead.
6. Orient Line: Short backup off a very good win at Caulfield last start off a slow tempo. Came home clearly fastest 200m, 400m and 600m and was a blinding time. Has to be respected.
7. London Fog: Never goes well first up and better over further. Want to see have the run today.
8. Portman: Nice enough type of horse and ran home well first up over 1200m when ate up the ground late. Williams goes on and from barrier 5 maps for an ideal run. Up to 1400m is ideal and always runs well at this track and on these surfaces.
9. Don’t Get Excited: Huge on speed run the last start over 1600m at Caulfield and almost got the win on the day. Back to 1400m where rock hard fit and down in weights. Never placed at this track a big issue though.
10. Little Indian: Ran mid-week so highly unlikely to run here. Tough type of horse to get right and back to dryer will suit. If lines up has to be considered.
11. Rebellious Lord: Two runs two wins. Big ask here.
Comments: Today is the day for Ken’s Dream to finally break through this prep with the ideal race. Portman looks the main danger while Orient Line will be charging home late with Little Indian. Really just see this though as a race between Portman and Ken’s Dream and if they drift Portman on the day I may even saver bet him.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Ken’s Dream – 5 units @ $4.00
Flemington Race 5 – 1600m – TAB/ATA Trainer’s Trust Handicap
1. Yu Long Sheng Hui: Price runner that won well on heavy first up but has failed to go with them the past two starts in similar grade on dryer. Needs rain.
2. Jaminzah: Respectable run from out the back in the Silverbowl but didn’t have the ability to run down the winners. Can run well again based on last two starts but would need to position further forward.
3. Atlantic Fox: CL1 winner two back before fairly beaten by Kiwia and others last start. Back to 1600m but hard to suggest.
4. Atlantic Express: Two back run was very good as was four back. Clearly goes well at Flemington and best is seen on a moderate tempo out front. Good barrier.
5. First Approach: Very well backed last start this Weir runner and ran a very good race 3rd behind Willi Wlli and urban Ruler. Stays at the 1600m and maps to sit further forward today. Looks well suited here.
6. Lovani: Strong 3 length win at Sandown last week after taking the lead and controlling the race. Has to be respected especially off the previous run behind Spanish Reef also.
7. Ruby Sea: A very nice type of horse. Got too far back last start at Flemington when just couldn’t sustain the run needed late after being hooked for a 600m run. Barrier 13 won’t give any easier a run today. Would like them to ride further forward but best has always been from riding cold early.
8. Ratoute Yutty: Maiden winner over 1400m off a very slow time at Geelong. Hard to suggest here.
9. Simply Splashing: Very well beaten in the Silverbowl final. Hard to suggest even for a place.
10. St Franco: Maiden winner first up this prep and was a pretty good run next start at Sandown behind Jaminzah and My Paisann. Not bad again last start at Caulfield behind My Paisann and Revolving Door. Respect here settling further forward. Big chance.
11. Balcazar: Respectable run from well back last start in the Silverbowl for 5th. Has to be considered a chance.
12. Fuse: Couldn’t place in CL1 at Cranbourne. Hard to suggest.
13. Kaptive Hero: Pretty good run two back behind What a Shock but fairly beaten in the Silverbowl.
Comments: Very difficult race overall. First Approach, Lovani, Ruby Sea, St Franco and Balcazar all look respectable chances. Lovani looks very hard to beat and will lead them into the straight while St Franco maps much better today.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Lovani to win. Also back St Franco.
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – K A Morrison Handicap
1. Mighty Like: In worst going last start at course over 1100m ran a huge race 6th behind Ability and Rough Justice. Up 2.5kg for back in class and has 2 wins at the track and goes well at distance.
2. Ruettiger: Up 2.5kg on the last start run 3rd behind Ability at course and distance. Awkward barrier today to get the very best run and could find himself in lesser ground depending on where they go. Certainly good enough to win.
3. Rough Justice: Continues to run some very good races without winning. Led them down the straight at a very even tempo last start at Flemington and was taken down late. Up 2.5kg today after claims. Respect. Due.
4. Moss ‘n’ Dale: 5 runs this prep but only the one win to date over 1400m on a heavy track. Back to 1200m and up in grade here… clearly has the ability to win but needs to prove itself over this distance in this grade.
5. Don Doremo: Tow runs this prep and smashed in both. Best over further.
6. Fast Cash: Didn’t get the race run to suit last start but still ran okay. Not expecting them to fly along here is the query.
7. Smackdown: Big run first up second at Swan Hill off a good trial but showed nothing last start at Caulfield. Never won at track a concern from 6 starts with only 1 place.
8. Divine Mr Artie: Up in class today and back down the Flemington straight. Goes well at Flemington but for mine very best runs have been 1400m+. Certainly does sprint well and has won down the straight, but he isn’t going as well this prep early on than last prep.
9. Play Master: Terrible run last start. Good run previous start. Clearly has the ability back in this grade to surprise.
10. Ozi Choice: Had every chance last start in easier grade at Sandown and just missed. Not top line form but has won at Flemington in past runs in easier grade. Has to improve.
11. Kirani: Best runs in the past would have him fighting for a place here but can’t see a win.
Comments: Happy to take on Divine Mr Artie and Moss ‘n’ Dale at the prices. Rough Justice has been running blinders and will be right in the finish while Mighty Like is a great big price off a forgive run when went close.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8
Strategy: Back Rough Justice and Mighty Like.
Flemington Race 7 – 2000m – George Watson Handicap
1. Killarney Kid: Coming off a lameness issue when scratched on course last start, i’ve got huge queries over the horse here off a lameness issue in a harder race than the one he was in last start. Yes, had trials since and looked good, but I reckon he is destined to go over the hurdles.
2. Extra Zero: Has his chances last start at Flemington but gave away 4L at the start and just didn’t have the closing speed required as they didn’t go around fast at all. Needs a stronger tempo and may just get it today.
3. Loresho: Two runs this prep and has been ‘horrible’ on both occasions. Finally getting up over a distance he requires and is getting down in the weights today. Expect an improved run here and a win wouldn’t be a total shock if Weir has the horse right now.
4. Kilimanjaro: Ridden for none last start at Flemington and has had 45 days between runs. This is a harder grade of race and clearly he has to improve, but we know he is good enough.
5. Magic Consol: Won three back and close 2nds the next two starts behind some decent horses. Up to 2000m but still suited. Respect.
6. Victory Downs: A moral beaten last start at course over 1600m in a very fast run race. First time over 2000m is the ONLY query today as the horse is flying and will level up to this grade. Weighted nicely.
7. Lord Durante: Led them around last start and didn’t put enough speed on. Same jockey onboard is an issue today as can’t see him pushing them any faster? Needs a tough staying test.
8. Pacodali: Got the ideal sit off the speed last start at Flemington and won with ease in the end getting away from them with 200m to go. Others look better overall for mine.
9. Master Zephyr: Ran a nice race 3rd behind Pacodali. Going well but clearly, others going better.
10. Clairvaux: This is what the horse has been waiting for today. Really needs 2000m+ to find his very best and I thought he ran very well two back at Caulfield over 1600m. Short turn around a good idea here and has to be respected at this track.
11. Aagas: Not in this!
Comments: Very happy to take on Killarney Kid here at the prices. Also couldn’t take Kilimanjaro at the price. Magic Console will be right in this and Extra Zero can also run well. Victory Downs is the horse I clearly want to back here off the last start run while Clairvaux and Loresho look the blowout chances at odds.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10
Strategy: Victory Downs – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $10/$3.00
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – Domain Plate
1. Moonlites Choice: Got the win last start over the 1200m at Caulfield and comes into this off a short turn around. Never won over 1400m but did look to want the distance increase.
2. Invictum Domina: 3-wide no cover last start at Caulfield and ran home well but was fairly beaten on the day by some better horses. Will be fitter for the run and stepping up to 1400m instead of a sprint distance may just do the trick. Respect her.
3. Zolani: Pakenham winner on synthetic first up before fairly beaten last start in similar grade at Sandown. Has to improve even with step back to 1400m today.
4. Princess of Queens: Huge run first up over the unsuitable 1100m when just missed late at Caulfield. Up to 1400m and off to Flemington should really do the trick. Looks very well weighted here.
5. Swampland: Cranbourne winner last start in much easier and only just got the win. Fairly beaten but an okay run two back at Flemington.
6. Whyouask: Solid run with top weight last start at Sandown from out the back. Was a good win from a wide barrier. Maps to get back and run on strongly with a low weight. 0 places from 5 runs on a Good track though is an issue.
7. Get Ready for Love: Didn’t show a lot first up at Schuca over 1100m. Previous prep BM-64 winner. Others preferred.
8. Littlesnitz: BM-58 winner four back and hasn’t been running too bad but clearly outclassed here on form.
9. Facts: F&M 64 winner first up and wasn’t bad four back behind Pedrena. Horrible last start on Soft. Win won’t shock.
10. Special Diva: Not the worst run last start at Flemington behind Spanish Reef but this is a much harder race and clearly has to improve back to 1400m.
11. Good Oh: Fairly beaten all three runs this prep in significantly easier races. Not in this.
12. Miss Magda: Got the win last start after four poor runs. Was a big price last start but won going slow out the front. Much harder here.
13. Queen Annabel: Geelong maiden winner first up and then decent enough run last start in easier but has to improve again.
14. Gala Moshea: Maiden winner two back at Ballarat from off the speed on a Soft 6. Good run wide no cover last start nabbed late behind Whyyouask. Has to be respected on that run for mine.
15. Pete’s Dragon: Had her chances the past two starts and found a few too good. Has to improve again.
16. Vainglorious: Maiden winner at Cranbourne. Huge jump in class needed here.
Comments: There are several runners i’m more than happy to suggest can’t win on form and there are only a few main chances. Princess of Queens is the clear standout based on the first up run and the improvement to be gained up to 1400m today. Horse is top class on my ratings and can run very well here from an ideal map.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 14
Strategy: Princess of Queens – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.75
Flemington Race 9 – 1100m – Flemington Event Staff Handicap
1. Ashlor: Huge disappointment last start almost a month ago down the Flemington straight. Had the perfect urn also. Clearly a good type and measured up the previous runs, but well up in weights again today will need to be very good.
2. Highland Beat: Went around at big odds last start at and got the win off what was an only average tempo run throughout. Was perfectly suited. Doesn’t look to be an overly strong tempo on again here either and can back up that run.
3. Invincible Al: Average run last start at course over 1200m coming off a smashing fast run 2nd the previous start. Back to 3YO grade and jockey change. Good barrier.
4. Knowable: On speed runner. For mine, best seen last prep over 1400m rather than 1100m. Blinkers off and huge ask first up. Really think he isn’t up to this.
5. Jaws of Steel: Sandown winner over 1600m three back.. huge jump back in distance here and hard to see.
6. Epic Moment: Fairly beaten last start by I Boogi in easier class at Sandown. Hard to suggest even if we know he is running well.
7. Hay Bale: Got the race run to suit last start up in grade and ran a huge run 2nd. Very well weighted today in comparison to Highland Beat and looks a big winning chance.
8. Magnarock: Couldn’t place last start at Mildura in easier… no thanks.
9. Kharnmosh: Maiden winner two back at Echuca but then beaten 2nd last start in BM-64. Has to improve.
10. Misty Girl: Well enough beaten last start at Sandown from a wide no cover run but had chances. Blinkers on. Obviously, has the ability but 1300m back to 1200m and first time on firm.
11. Tahi: Geelong maiden winner for O’Brien yard. Clearly has the ability but this is a big ask.
12. Hellava Babe: First up. Last prep got a Pakenham win before failing to measure up in easier grade than this.
13. Hot Hussler: Couldn’t win a maiden.
14. I’m Telling Ya: Very strong run last start at course over 1200m when looked a very good chance leading with 100m to go but endd up 0.8L off the winners. Down in weight.
Comments: Moderate speed on the mapping but nothing super fast at all. Invincible Al and Highland Beat can both run well here off previous wins at this course and over distances while Ashlor does have to carry a big weight but is nicely in. The clear standout for mine is Hay Bale who maps to lead them down the straight at a moderate tempo and will be very hard to get past with 52.5kg. Weighted to win.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7, 14
Strategy: Hay Bale – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $10/$3.30
