Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington on 20 January 2018. The rail moves out 3m to the 9m position from last week where we saw what i’d call a hot rail. It will be interesting to see if any hot lanes develop with such a hot day on Friday requiring extensive watering to keep the track from being firm on Saturday. I’ll be on track as usual so keep an eye on twitter. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 1 – Royal Ace – 5 units @ $4.80 to win
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Amber Sky – 2.5 units @ $4.60. Flamberge – 1.5 units @ $8.00
Best Each-Way
Flemington Race 4 – Shenandoah – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $8.00/$2.50
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 11, 13, 15
Quaddie Leg Two: 4
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 6, 10, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1800m – Bitalli Handicap – BM-84
1. Double Bluff: 1400m up to 1800m here and back to dryer. Had two hard runs and finally up to distances where can actually figure. Really good run in Easter Cup 3rd… 3kg claimer on for a reason. Big improvement needed but 1 week between runs expect it.
2. Shoreham: Continues to run very well this prep. Back down in grade here and well suited. May very well be a good bet.
4. Guizot: Continues to run into races but not see it out to the line. Up to 1800m questionable and dry track again an issue.
5. Portion Control: Average at best in the yard last start at Caulfield with huge improvement to come. Could very well have gone on with it here and look well suited at the 1800m. Maps nicely.
6. Royal Ace: Flew home last start at Caulfield and just missed in this grade beaten by Widgee Turf. Well weighted here good barrier.
7. Archery Peak: First up for Cumani stable off a prep where won at Cranbourne. Has to improve.
8. Willi Willi: Strong run first up over the 1400m but then failed to fire last start from last. Up to 1800m and better suited but has to improve again like a few others.
9. Le Juge: French import. Only fair last start when ridden from out the back. Up to 1800m a query for mine on best… Oliver jumps off last start winner to ride this.
10. Mr Churchill: Nice winner last start at Geelong and steps up in grade here. Finally found form.
11. Mutarakem: Two strong wins in a row and can improve onwards with the form again here potentially. Strong through the line the key for this horse. Oliver jumps off to ride Le Juge interesting.
Comments: Double Bluff isn’t a 100-1 shot here and will be a winner on my book. Shoreham is well in and will be hard to hold out. Portion Control is one to watch from the yard for improvement and if that comes could be very hard to beat. Royal Ace can continue on wards here and looks well suited. Mutarakem is strong through the line and will be hard to hold out again….. Willi Willi looks unders? Le Juge the HUGE watch with Oliver opting for the ride. End of the day Royal Ace should be ridden midfield and if produces a final 400m similar to that shown last start off the pace set here, it will be hard to hold Royal Ace out.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Royal Ace – 5 units @ $4.80.
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m – Doiemus Handicap
1. Doctor Care: Five runs this prep but hasn’t performed outside of the soft track win at Mount Gambier. Has to improve on last few runs.
2. Al Haram: French import who showed enough over the 2000m last start at Flemington off a strong tempo. Up to 2500m ideal and ready to fire third up. Any rain would help.
3. Goodwood Zoodiac: Had his chances last start at Sandown when just headed by Tuff Bickie. Up in grade here and clearly not going as well as past performances.
4. Serenade the Stars: Sit and sprint last start over the 2400m when was just too good for a nice field of runners. Much harder this and true testing material if speed is on at all.
5. Bint El Bedu: Grinder who wants them to run and run and run out front. Won’t get that today and may need to be pushed forward to lead.
6. Dornier: Nice enough type running 4th and 3rd the past two starts fairly beaten. Can run ok again.
8. Last Week: Nice 2nd to Civil Disobedience and goes up in grade while Civils tays down in distance and class. Coming out of a strong race.
9. Crafty Cruiser: Old mate always runs well here, can’t see a win.
10. Eaton: Nice enough type 4th last start wide no cover behind Goodwood Zodiac. Well weighted with 51kg again but clearly has to improve in this grade again.
Comments: Where is the speed in this? From a strong on speed position Serenade The Stars will be hard to beat in a sit and sprint home the final 600m.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Serenade The Stars.
Flemington Race 3 – 2000m – Patrobas – 3YO BM-70
1. Civil Disobedience: Strong winner last start at course and distance and goes back to 3YO grade here. Scary win last start, gapped 3rd. Good horse 2nd. Clear standout.
2. Cavalero: Nice winner here last start in similar company over 1700m. Bedford in 3rd won very well since.
3. Gretzky: Strong winner from on speed at Sandown with a good turn of foot. Much harder here but looks main leader again.
4. Mahamedis: Strong 2nd to Keen last start but big jump in grade and distance to 2000m. Obviously looks top quality but has to improve.
5. Chain of Fools: Tas Guineas 4th last start and back up to 2000m. Was a favourite two back at Canterbury over 1900m.
6. Sukoot: Third run today. Maiden winner. Big jump.
7. Almighty Crown: 4L winner at Yarra Valley. Times were very sound enough but clearly harder this.
8. Anneka: Trial winner by 20L on lead in at Stony Creek. Maiden winner at Mornington. Short enough in market.
9. Flying Flywheel: Heavy winner in maiden grade last start. Beaten fav previous start on Good. Not in this grade.
10. Casino Rose: Couldn’t win a maiden.
11. Homados: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Comments: Three potential leaders in Chain of Fools, Cavalero and Gretzky while Anneka gets the run of the race behind them. Cavalero comes into this with a great spot in run and a huge platform run last start which produced Bedford mid-week. Based on mapping and weights I have to oppose Civil Disobedience even though the form lines are sound. Gretzky if he handle the steps up in distance will be very hard to run down from on speed position.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Gretzky E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 2000m – Dolly’s Dream Handicap – BM-84
1. Royal Applause: Go forward type. Sat outside leader last start at Caulfield when they went slow.. fought way through line but claimed late. 3kg claimer here and goes up in grade and distance… needs more speed on today.
2. Addison: Sat last in a slowly run race and charged home last start at Caulfield to just miss on the line 2nd. Stays well in at weights and Oliver takes ride from ok barrier. Did what was expected and certainly a good type, but query matching the ratings required if they go fast here.
3. Shenandoah: Not suited style wise by the lead and control pace last start and still just clung on for the victory. 2kg claimer stays on… previous run was a TOUGH effort in harder than this for 3rd when went very fast out front. Can run them around somewhere in the middle of that today to score.
4. Bonus D’oro: Continues to present well and run well but can’t get a win on the board. Was held up last start when beaten 0.9L obviously going well enough to score here.
5. Stormy Shore: Sat off the leaders but not exactly a sit sprinter yet stuck on to just miss. Needs to improve further but maps well.
6. Tranquil Miss: Sale winner three back then fairly beaten last two chances in easier.
7. Bertwhistle: Three wins in a row. Big step up in grade again but clearly looks a horse with ability. Win won’t shock.
8. So Splendid: Sat off the leaders as favourite last start but just couldn’t get past Shenandoah. Difficult barrier today.
9. River Goddess: Two poor runs in a row heading into this.. one was Lameness issue and last start was well back but had chances. Can improve here.
10. One for Later: Go forward type 3kg claimer onboard. Not for me.
Comments: Bunch of horses coming out of VERY slowly run races puts huge queries over where the form runner pops up from. Shenandoah will lead them along and control the tempo at a pace required to win. Can go fast can go slow, will be there in the finish. Addison for mine is poison odds.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Shenandoah – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $8.00/$2.50
Flemington Race 5 – 1600m – Victorian Owner Gold Card Handicap – BM-70
1. Cha Cha King: Five runs on lead in at Wagg and Albury, not the ideal form for mine.
2. Forthefunofit: Good win two back and then failed to get a positive position sitting last at Sandown and ran on ok on a day when you couldn’t make ground.
3. Sohool: Strong winner against the bias last start at Sandown in strong time. Very good type and can win again.
4. Stylish Assassin: Get back run on and steal it type. Got all the luck last start and Mott keeps ride.
5. Aurum Spirit: Non-winner. 1 place from last 10 starts. Last three runs beaten 3L+.
6. Krusty: Strong 2nd to Cavalero last start and Bedford third. Form lines match up well here and previous run was also good. Suited. Blinkers. Claim.
7. Patriot Act: Looked very well in the yard last start at Sandown and used the bias to get the win. Much harder here.
8. Bernie Boy: Two runs this prep. First up poor but last start closed off well enough.
9. Hussy’s Glow: Stable likes this horse. Good win at Echuca in similar grade last start and step up to 1600m ideal. In ok at weights.
10. Mr Optimistic: Old mate has won just 1 from last 10 and last two starts had thumps. Big issue.
11. Guangzhou: Hayes runner who was fairly beaten by the bias first up at Sandown. Can improve off that.
12. Tan Tat Trusting: Looked very well first up but gone a long way out. Williams onboard for a reason, improved onwards.
13. Vungers: Four runs this prep and has placed on all occasions but not been close to a win so to speak. Hard to suggest on from alone.
14. Saxophone: Couldn’t win a CL1 last start. Was a big run three back but shown nothing since. Could surprise.. that type of yard.
Comments: Sohool and Krusty look the clear best runners here, both map well enough and both will be hard to beat. More speed the better.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Krusty and Sohool
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – NJT20Cricket Handicap – BM-84
1. Glenrowan Prince: Hasn’t won in a while but last two starts have been solid enough displays. Even with claim though not one for me.
2. Atlantic City: Won well first up at Moonee Valley from out back. Straight track query here the issue.
3. Murphy’s Reward: Ran a very strong race for 2nd last start at Caulfield when wide no cover loomed and just missed. Down in the weight here and first time down the straight.
4. Play Master: Always runs well at this track. Not the worst at all last start on the soft. Back to dryer and will get a better run here. Could feature.
5. Leodoro: Old mate always runs home well from the back. First time down the straight may be suited.
7. Judges: Surprise winner at the bool last start in easier. Form is ok.
10. Roman Fizz: Goes well enough and was well in yard first up when 3-wide no cover and still ran well. Has to improve but has to be considered at weights.
11. Sheriff John Stone: Surprise big odds winner last start at Caulfield in nice time. Goes well down the straight. Can win.
12. Tykiato: Flew home first up at Caulfield just missed behind Creativity and then last start speed was on and hit the front but two stormed over the top late. Up in class here but respect.
13. Just Hifalutin: Flew home for second the last two starts off slow tempos. Expect stronger tempo on here today and looks well suited.
14. Astro Castro: Has obviously won down the straight. Last start finally got a win on a Good track but expecting Flemington to be extra firm in comparison. Hard for me to suggest.
15. Manolo Blahniq: Old mate is a pain in my behind. Never settled last start and then still found the line strongly just missing. Well in at the weights but has to go on with it again.
16. Sabotage: NZ import who looked average at best for mine over these distances in comparison to those in this. Take on.
17. Search Squad: Not going well enough to consider.
Comments: Certainly an open race but Handsome Thief maps for an ideal run here with cover and should get every chance especially if they decide to go down the middle of the straight again or out wide. At the price, I have to play and play hard. King River and Manolo Blahniq along with Just Hifalutin are the ones that scare me.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 11 13, 15
Strategy: Just Hifalutin E/W
Flemington Race 7 – 1100m – Inglis Dash
1. Overshare: Goes well down the Flemington straight. First up. Has to be considered, nice type.
2. Onehundred Percent: Very keen to oppose this horse. Not convinced what it did last start was kosher. Take on.
3. Prezado: Two runs last prep. First run solid 2nd and then won in good class beating Bandipur at Flemington. GOes well down straight. Nice type.
4. Nature Strip: Huge win first up. The real deal. Still, very short price here first time down straight.
5. Fully Maxed: Nice enough type. First up run basic at best. Place may be a stretch?
6. Bravo Tango: 3YO Colt. Good 2nd to Snitzepeg last prep to end it all. May want further than this.
7. Roddandtodd: Maiden winner who has been gelded. Big step up in grade.
8. Proudest Moment: Hasn’t even won a maiden…
9. Teleplay: Good type of horse. Too far back in trouble throughout last start but really good run 2nd. Can match it with these.
10. Ultrasmart: Caulfield 3rd first up when held up for runs. Another with claims here.
11. Invincible Dream: CL1 winner… huge ask.
12. See Me Exceed: Nice run 4th last start when held up and attacked the line. Walker goes on. Could be something good.
Comments: Nature Strip is a Group 1 horse in the making. Times and Data don’t lie, this horse would be competitive today in Group 1 behind Redzel. It’s the horse to beat and you couldn’t tip anything else. Overshare looks a place to place here at $4.20 while
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4
Strategy: Nature’s Strip to win. Overshare to place at $4.20 the play if you wanted one.
Flemington Race 8 – 1000m – Kensington Stakes – Listed
1. Flamberge: Changed trainer and had 300 days between runs. Group 1 winner who goes very well down the straight. Has been well backed coming into this today and runs the sectionals required to win this.
2. Amber Sky: First up for new stable coming here from Hong Kong. Beaten 2L last start by Mr Stunning and finished alongside Notlistenintome. 8YO and 320 days between runs.
3. Lord of the Sky: Trucked into the race first up and was impossible to get past putting in some very solid late sectionals. Doubt he will get it that easy out front today but stranger things have happened.
4. Saracino: Last win was 2016 down the straight over 1200m putting in very solid times early and late… hasn’t gone close to that since is the issue – Gelded and blinkers off.
5. Thermal Current: Looked to have every chance last start but didn’t really get the right run and also may not have ran as well as could on a Soft 5. Back to firmer and has to be respected.
6. Husson Eagle: Two trials on lead in. Big ask here to win first up against this class of race. Obviously has ability and has won at track previously.
7. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Freshened up. Can’t win this on past three runs for mine. Have to take on.
8. Itz Invincible: Morphetville winner in nice fashion first up. Freshened but clearly flying. Big ask here.
Comments: Itz Invincible will push the pace out front and is a big query at the 1200m with only 1000-1100m form – expect the horse to hit a wall late. Lord of the Sky with a run under the belt will be able to handle a tougher speed now and once again has to be considered a chance. Flamberge is the best horse in this race and by all reports has come back very well. Amber Sky looks the main danger coming over from Hong Kong and working well with Flamberge by all reports. Flamberge has won 4 from 9 first up and if anywhere close to top will be hard to hold out with the ideal slot in run.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 8
Strategy: Amber Sky – 2.5 units @ $4.60. Flamberge – 1.5 units @ $8.00
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – VRC Young Members’ Handicap – BM-84
1. Setinum: Disappointed two runs back this prep and only placed once in last 10 runs. Hard to suggest.
2. Dan Zephyr: Fairly beaten the last three runs and steps back in grade here and stays at 1400m. Will be pushing forward from wide out.
3. Wise Hero: Continues to show his class. Last start led them around at a hot pace at Flemington and was still far too good. Will only improve onwards and Steph Thornton staying on is suitable.
4. Diamond Oasis: Wasn’t the worst run two back but failed last start on the soft. Short backup and firmer track. Distance query.
5. Adirondack: First up today. Hasn’t won in a long time and best over further.
6. Curragh: Promised the world and hasn’t really produced on the big stages. First up here and goes very well first up. Respect at this grade and at this distance.
7. Dylanson: 1 win 0 places from last 10 so very inconsistent and didn’t show a lot last start. Take on.
9. King’s Command: Two runs this prep. First up nice run 2nd but last start only average. Stays at distance.
10. Malaise: Strong win from the back last start at Randwick and looks very well suited coming down from up north. Form has been franked by Samadoubt since. Big chance.
11. Toy Boy: Fairly disappointing last start but had Mucus. Up to 1400m a big query here.
12. The Avenger: Got the job done as the money suggested last start when 3-wide with cover and just kept finding through the line. Suited here from barrier. Oliver stays.
13. Simply Splashing: Huge disappointment last start but didn’t find a lot of room in straight. Previous win form stands up.
Comments: The Avenger ran a career peak to win last start and needs to improve again here, so i have to take it on. Toy Boy is questionable at the distances and gets a long way back so also goes in my sack bin here. Curragh will be ready to go first up but has to be at best to measure up at this distance. Wise Hero will be trying to lead them around as slowly as possible. Running 22.04 final 400m last start after stacking them up, the horse was always going to be impossible to get past. Won’t get it that easy here i’d suggest. Star Stealer will be rock hard fit coming out of a solidly run race last start while Malaise has done everything right the past. If they run it along, Star Stealer will be very hard to hold out on what it did last start at Kilmore not pushed out.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 6 10, 13
Strategy: Back Wise Hero E/W
