Welcome to the form guide for Flemington on 19 May 2018. We are presented with a Soft 5 track at Flemington today with little to no rain expected throughout the day. A 15-20km wind is expected throughout the day and that will cause little to no effect on the results over the course of the day. I will be moving my racing information in a few weeks time over to www.themailbag.com.au so please feel free to start reading the previews there from now on.
Flemington Race 1 – 1400m – G Watson Hall of Fame Trophy – 2YO
1. Vassilator: Strong win last start at course and distance in legit times. Showed a strong turn of foot from the back. Was suited by strongly run race. Can settle further forward here.
2. Dalswinton: Not the worst run last start over 1200m at Caulfield but needs to find another gear up to the 1400m.
3. Bronski Beat: Maiden winner last start on lead in after three runs. Weir stable and needs to improve significantly again. Back to dryer track also query on other performances.
4. Winning Partner: Listed grade 4th first up over in Adelaide. Times were solid without breaking the clock. Has to improve again. Stable goes well with 2YOs.
5. Zoutori: Two runs in the past and never produced a run that I would expect to be winning this. Happy to take on jockey at track also.
6. Unfair Dismissal: Won a barrier trial heading into first up run in maiden class and had every chance as a well backed favourite, but failed to deliver. Would be hard to suggest here.
7. Stars of Carrum: One run on lead in. No real excuses and was a big drifter on the day. Up to 1400m helps but on breeding needs further?
8. Paralyzer: No public trials. Has not been backed in the market.
9. Mirette: Maiden 2nd first up this prep fairly beaten by Bronski Beat. Has to improve.
10. Black Label Lady: Two runs to date in top class and shown little to suggest a win here.
Top Chances: Vassilator
High Chances: Winning Partner, Bronski Beat, Dalswinton
Medium Chances: Mirette, Paralyzer, Unfair Dismissal
Low Chances: Stars of Carrum, Zoutori
Very Low Chances: Black Label Lady
Expected Speed: A few on speed runners coming over from outside draws. No furious tempo leader in this bunch. 3L below benchmark up to 2L above benchmark early.
Comments: Vassilator on the lead in run looks a clear step ahead of these. Winning Partner, Bronski Beat and Dalswinton look the main dangers in the race.
Flemington Race 2 – 1200m – Karasi Hall of Fame – BM-78
1. Egyptian Bullet: Two wins in a row. Up to 1200m here. Two runs down the straight and has failed to get within 6L on both occasions. Much easier grade here than the last run here in G3. Last start run was solid.
2. Regimen: Strong lead in run at Rosehill 4th behind Sedition. Handled the straight in the past. Solid times.
3. Twitchy Frank: 1200m winner in the past at Moonee Valley. Clearly best runs in the past have been over 1300-1400m is certainly an issue here. Well below best last start at Caulfield and hasn’t led last two starts. Best asset is ability to run fast early – has no turn of foot late.
4. Grey Shadow: Very strong win last start at Caulfield and looks ideally placed here. Can improve and looks a top class horse. Will be suited today. Stable mate to setup the pace?
5. Island Daze: Looked a nice enough type winning at Sandown second up before getting back and not running on. Strong late off soft tempo in the past – but won’t get it slow here.
6. Miss Vixen: Short turnaround. Got back off a solidly run race last start and ran home just okay, failing to fire the final 200m for mine. Back in distance here. Looks ideal with speed on. Can factor.
7. Tarcoola Spirit: Had its chances this prep to figure. Gone backwards the past two starts. Best three back can figure here.
8. Prepare to Win: First up winner at Geelong in much easier. Has to ignore significantly to be placing here.
9. Chateau Griffo: Nice enough horse but potentially just a cat? Great run on record last prep down the straight 3rd to Crown Witness. Has to improve on recent form.
10. Hysterics: Couldn’t place in BM-58 grade last start. Never run time required to figure here.
11. Jungle Queen: Ran home well last start beaten 4L behind Grey Shadow. Best runs on time for the horses career. Place chance at best.
12. Layel: Slowly run race first up in a poor maiden and didn’t beat much. Huge improvement required here. Trainer flying.
13. Remember the Name: First up here. Trial on lead in. Low weight. Needs further for very best?
Top Chances: Grey Shadow
High Chances: Miss Vixen, Twitchy Frank
Medium Chances: Regimen, Tarcoola Spirit, Egyptian Bullet, Island Daze
Low Chances: Layel, Remember the Name, Jungle Queen, Prepare to Win, Chateau Griffo,
Very Low Chances: Hysterics
Expected Speed: Expect the types of Twitchy Frank and Jungle Queen to be looking to push the tempo on here today. If Twichy Frank is pushed to lead them around at a solid clip (only way the horse can win and suits stablemate) then we could see anywhere from 3L to 10L above benchmark early in the race.
Comments: This is a race that sets up perfectly for the likes of Grey Shadow and Miss Vixen. Speed will be on and they are the proven horses on recent form. Twitchy Frank ridden correctly will push the tempo and be there in the finish as well.
Flemington Race 3 – 1600m – National Hall of Fame – BM-78
1. Boxachocolates: Best in the past seen 1600-2000m over in NZ. First up run in AUS was a strong 2nd behind Kapaulenko off a slowish tempo throughout. Up to 1600m here but stays in very winnable grade. Type for this.
2. Guizot: Strong run last start at the Bool just missing from a long way back in run on the Soft 5 track. Up to 1600m ideal here and Choppy JNR takes the ride. Gets far back.
3. Hipparchus: Long time between runs this prep. Hasn’t gone close to a win in a very long time. Struggle to suggest the horse on current formlines over this distance.
4. War Legend: 3kg claim is key for this strong quality horse well back in class here. Looks big odds and will have improved significantly from the first up run at the Bool. Best runs in the past have been off strong tempos.
5. Siga La Vaca: Two runs this prep for two 5th placings. Last start appeared to be the horses best run in a long time. Step back in class so to speak here but has to improve again.
6. Mr Wonderful: Ran dead last first up. Hasn’t gone well this or last prep the issue. Best in past good enough but hard to suggest a return to that.
7. Notio: Got its win two back at Ballarat off a very slowly run pace on speed. Last start jumped back up in class and ran well considering tempo. Testing material here as this looks harder and tough from the barrier to get a good spot in run to build momentum into straight.
8. Another Bullseye: Comes into the race off a very solid last race effort just holding out Galaxy Raider at course and distance. Well in here at weights but given a very awkward barrier. Times are legit.
9. Domino Vitale: Last win in January and hasn’t gone close since. Back in class again here. Lead in runs are solid enough time wise. Don’t dismiss fully.
10. I Boogi: Two runs this prep. First up wasn’t suited and needed further. Last start was a nice enough run over the 1300m at Sandown. Up to 1600m here will have the horse ready to fire. Is he good enough?
11. La Fleurette: BM-78 winner on lead in at the Bool. Was suited by the tempo back in grade last start. Can run well here but really has to improve again.
12. Penny to Sell: Winner two back at big odds at Ballarat. Last start run wasn’t bad in any way shape or form at course over 1800m in harder grade. Steps back here and isn’t the worst runner here.
13. Zadon: Trial winner on lead in to last start run. Failed to fire from a great position in running. This looks harder again.
14. Eclair Calling: Flew home last start at Caulfield and savaged the line clearly looking for further. Finds the right race here and maps for a very positive ride. Looks the type that could improve past these.
15. Zilbiyr: Ended last prep over 2800m. Did win at 1500m last prep on a Heavy track. Not run the required times over these distances in the past.
16. Spearhead: Form this prep is well below what is needed to win here. Take on.
Top Chances: Eclair Calling, Boxachocolates
High Chances: Guizot, Another Bullseye
Medium Chances: Notio, Domino Vitale, La Fleurette, War Legend, I Boogi
Low Chances: Penny to Sell, Siga La Vaca, Mr Wonderful, Zilbiyr
Very Low Chances: Zadon, Hipparchus, Spearhead
Expected Speed: Mr Wonderful should be setting a strong tempo out front here – horses best win in the past was off a strong tempo. Could go anywhere from 3L-10L above benchmark early.
Comments: Tempo should be on here giving the best horses every chance to run to their mark. Eclair Calling maps to get the run of the race and looks the type to improve significantly here. Boxachocolates will improve significantly here off a stronger tempo and up in distance. Another Bullseye maps poorly but has run the times recently to be in the finish. Guizot is in the same boat. The race goes deeper than just these runners, with 4-5 others all competitive here.
Flemington Race 4 – 1800m – Billy Smith Hall of Fame – BM-84
1. Captain Duffy: Fifth up this prep. Got a win two back in similar grade in Adelaide and steps up in distance again which is ideal. Progressive type, Chop Jnr onboard.
2. Quick Defence: Strong run last start at Flemington and ran on well for third in much harder grade. Steps back in grade here and looks ideally suited.
3. Carraig Aonair: Two runs this prep. Improved last start in a race run to suit and was suited by patterns. Step up in distance here again should suit. Horse at it’s best is competitive.
4. The Willybe: Failed to fire first up at the Bool. Similar grade here in reality. Best in past has been over much further than this is the query.
5. Jaminzah: Not suited last start by the tempo and got back when was meant to be more forward on the day. Going the right way about things and last win was at this course.
6. Prima: Big disappointment last start from on speed. Similar grade here – goes well at track. Can run well with low weight on speed if ridden correctly.
7. Jake’s Hill: Halved in betting last start and ran home as fast as he could from a poor position in run. Newitt onboard suggests will go back again here. Suited by distance, suited by tempo. Will potentially have to get around the field.
8. I Am The Dark: Failed to fire from on speed in a strongly run race last start. Two previous runs were okay off slower tempos. Need to improve here.
9. Laughing Heir: Back in grade last start and got the win off a peach of a ride by Mott. Yet to record absolute solid times off strongly run tempos. Has to step up here.
10. Balcazar: Got back and ran on well enough last start at Flemington. Step up in grade here but best in past can run well.
11. Four By Four: Given no chance by the ride last start at Flemington and was a forgive run. This horse has ability and with the right run can figure. Better barrier here.
13. Midas Man: Beaten a long way in similar grade last start. On the way up to 2000m+ races. Hard to suggest on recent form.
14. Clairvaux: Horrible last start at the Bool. Previous run at Ballarat was solid but needs to run better than that here.
Top Chances: Quick Defence, Jake’s Hill
High Chances: Prima, Carraig Aonair, Captain Duffy, Balcazar
Medium Chances: Four By Four, Laughing Heir
Low Chances: I Am The Dark, Midas Man, Jaminzah, The Willybe
Very Low Chances: Clairvaux
Expected Speed: The Willybe will lead them around at around 3-5L above benchmark.
Comments: Quick Defence comes into this off a sensational last start run and looks well suited in this grade. Jake’s Hill up further in distance looks much better suited in this race and will be coming home hard late. Prima, Carraig Aonair, Captain Duffy and even Balcazar all have claims.
Flemington Race 5 – 2000m – Poitrel Hall of Fame Trophy – Open Class
1. Boom Time: Will push forward and potentially lead them around. Did it the hard way 3-wide the trip first up and can improve onwards again. Ran legit times last start. Looks well in here.
2. High Church: Ran on well first up at Flemington when got back in the run. Up to 2000m ideal and horse will improve stacks here.
3. Montauk: Going okay as a type. Ignore last start? Look to previous Group 3 win in the Summer Cup at the end of 2017. Has been not performing at top.
4. Observational: Best run over 2000m in the past is top shelf. Been well below best the past two preps.. but also hasn’t found a fast run race. May not get that here either.
5. Dodging Bullets: Surprise winner three back and then two runs since has only run just ‘ok’. Stays in class but this looks even harder?
6. Tarquin: Got the win last start at course over 1800m beating out Boom Time. Harder here but has to be respected.
7. My Nordic Hero: Import. Nice enough type but big jump in grade again here. Ran okay 4th on lead in over 2000m. More needed.
8. Second Bullet: Nice enough run 5th from just off the speed. Consistently puts in top class runs but needs to find absolute best to win this.
9. Hursley: Continues to run well this prep but yet to meet a brutal tempo that would suit him best. May not get that here either.
10. Lizard Island: Got the race run to suit last start with strong tempo on throughout. Would suggest 2000m ideal but hard to see him running past types like Boom Time.
11. Red Alto: Well below this grade the past two starts. Three back was nice enough but this is harder.
12. Can’t Refuse: Nice enough type and low weight. Best run preps back at Caulfield stil below this.
Top Chances: Boom Time
High Chances: Tarquin, Second Bullet, High Church
Medium Chances: Lizard Island, Montauk, Hursley, Mr Nordic Hero
Low Chances: Dodging Bullets, Red Alto, Observational,
Very Low Chances: Can’t Refuse
Expected Speed: Dodging Bullets, Tarquin, Second Bullet and Boom Time all have the ability to lead them around. Don’t expect a huge tempo – looking more at Benchmark to 3L above benchmark.
Comments: Will be hard to win from the back. Looking to the on-speed types here. Boom Time the clear standout especially if we run benchmark or slightly better times. Tarquin comes into this with some very strong formlines while Second Bullet will be more handy here today.
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – Hilton Nicholas Straight Six – Listed
1. Rich Charm: Strong win last start at Caulfield flying home from an ‘unwinnable position’. Proved his class last start and back to Flemington in this grade looks ideally placed. Clearly the horse to beat off any tempo.
2. Keen Array: Failed to fire in the Group 3 last start. Previous run at Caulfield ran very well from on speed and was suited. Best would have him competitive here.
3. Derryn: Showed nothing the last two preps but has been going around in Group 1 class consistently. Three preps back ran 0.8L 3rd to Redzel in G1 class. Best off a wet surface.
4. Malibu Style: Very good run two back at Caulfield and Sprightly Lass has gone onto a Group win since. Malibu Style showed his ultimate ability the last two starts doing it off a fast tempo and then a benchmark tempo sprinting home late. Horse is flying.
5. First Among Equals: Two back run at Caulfield was a strong run 2nd behind Malibu Style. Failed to fire in Group company last start in Adelaide. Best in past can go well here.
6. Ozi Choice: Best runs in the past have always been over further. Ran solidly last start at the Bool in Listed grade. Stays at 1200m the issue but can run okay.
7. Suspense: On speed first up had every chance and ran well enough 7th to Rich Charm. Has to go to a new level here.
8. Tried and Tired: Didn’t show too much last start at the Bool and hasn’t gone close the past three runs. Four back at Caulfield not the worst. Has to be at very best here to place.
9. Divine Mr Artie: Two runs this prep. Last start in easier grade ran home well behind Milwaukee. Best runs in the past have been over further, but last prep didn’t go too bad over 1200m.
10. Typhoon Jolie: Won well enough at Mornington first up and then really well backed at Caulfield ran a close 2nd in great times. Failed to fire at the Bool last start and had every chance. Best in past has to be respected.
11. Sir Donald: Ran home very well last start at Flemington for second and caught the eye. Off a stronger tempo here can run well and looks suited.
12. Divine Quality: Get back run on type. Ran home strongly last start at Caulfield and will improve from that run. Respect.
13. Knowable: Every chance first up over 1200m and stays at distance. Wants further for very best runs.
Top Chances: Malibu Style, Rich Charm
High Chances: First Among Equals, Sir Donald, Divine Quality
Medium Chances: Typhoon Jolie, Keen Array, Ozi Choice, Derryn, Divine Mr Artie
Low Chances: Knowable, Suspense, Tried and Tired
Very Low Chances: None.
Expected Speed: 2L-8L above Benchmark with Ozi Choice, Typhoon Jolie and Malibu Style pushing it from on speed.
Comments: Malibu Style is well over the odds here today – horse will be on speed pushing the tempo and loves the track. Rich Charm looks the main threat. 4-5 other outside of that.
Flemington Race 7 – 3200m – Andrew Ramsden Stakes – Listed
1. Self Sense: Trial between runs. Strong 2nd behind Life Less Ordinary two back coming off a nice win at Caulfield. Step up in grade here so to speak – has to be respected at the distance.
2. Swacadelic: Out and out stayer suited by the distance here coming off a strong 4th in the Bool cup. Could be back to very best now. Any rain would help.
3. Chequered Flag: Two trial hurdles coming into this after winning very well last start at Morphetville. Win two runs back was impressive also. Looks the type for the 3200m and can improve to this grade.
4. Sherlock Holmes: Strong 2800m winner last start in a race run to suit the toughest stayers. That is what he is and was weighted to win. Will handle the 3200m. Respect.
5. Sin to Win: Fell last start. Missed a run clearly. Not the best conditions to be going 2500 straight up to 3200m really off an issue like that. Horse is good but hard to suggest the progression again.
6. Choysa: Four back 3000m win was quite good and times would have the horse at least competitive here. Another gear needed though.
7. Doukhan: Sydney Cup run suggested the horse would be very competitive here but hasn’t measured up to the grade last start. Best off a medium tempo?
8. Charlevoix: Battled home strongly for 2nd at Flemington last start fairly beaten by Sherlock Holmes. Horse has the ability and will get 3200m. Can’t dismiss chances.
9. Runaway: Coming out of a third in the Group 1 South Australian Derby. Leading type. Up to 3200m no dramas obviously off the St Leger win two back. Testing material for the horse.
10. Sly Romance: Strong run over 2800m last start behind Sherlock Holmes. Well in at weights here and can improve up to 3200m.
11. Big Hammer: Been well backed all prep. Well backed at the Bool and won well. Hurdle trial between runs. Should stay 3200m but big ask here.
12. Darabad: Hasn’t won in a very long time. Up to the right distance for the horse. Ran a solid 4th in Sandown Cup last prep.
13. Romanesque: Ran very well in the Bool cup on a short back-up. Just missed. Horse is going well and has to be respected up to this distance.
15. Doom ‘n’ Boom: Failed in Maiden Hurdles the last two starts. Last runs over distances not super. Level below this.
16. Cuban Fighter: Last win was over 3000m in much easier grade than this. Not the worst here.
Top Chances: Chequered Flag, Sherlock Holmes
High Chances: Swacadelic, Charlevoix, Romanesque
Medium Chances: Self Sense, Sin to Win, Doukhan, Runaway, Sly Romance
Low Chances: Darabad, Cuban Fighter, Big Hammer
Very Low Chances: Doom ‘n’ Boom, Choysa
Expected Speed: Lack of a speed runner here makes it hard to predict the outright speed. Could be anywhere from benchmark up to 6L above benchmark.
Comments: Very tough race. Chequered Flag has always appealed as a top class stayer. Looks the best of the Weir crew. Sherlock Holmes has continued to progress all prep and has more to come form the yard. Swacadelic, Charlevoix and Romanesque all look threats.
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – C Hayes AM – Open
1. Pilote D’Essai: Returned well first up at Flemington over 1400m. Stays at distance the negative here – best over further.
2. Killarney Kid: Nice type but been off 3/4 a year for a reason. Best runs for this horse have always been 2000m+
3. Akavoroun: Returned in style first up over the 1400m with a very solid run 6th behind Land of Plenty. Horse will improve significantly from that run. Well in at weights.
4. La Bella Diosa: First up runner for new Hayes stable after a few preps in NZ. Won a Group 1 over 1600m three preps back. Group 2 winner two preps back on a Heavy track. Last prep failed to get a win but did run 1.7L 6th. If near top in yard has to be respected here on best form.
5. Moss ‘n’ Dale: Failed first up at the bool. Last prep got a Listed grade win and ran well 3rd in a Group 3. Needs to improve up in distance. Short of very best distance here and needs the run?
6. Ken’s Dream: Got the ideal run throughout at Morphetville last start and couldn’t get past Lite’n In My Veins. Back to 1400m here as stable feels clearly horse didn’t get the distance to find best. May just be a 1200m horse?
7. So Si Bon: Would have been in the finish last start but found no luck and was forced into the rails. Horse was flying. Horse is flying. Ready to upset a few people here.
9. Onpicalo: Trialed on lead in. Last prep best runs were third up and beyond over further. 1400m just short of best.
10. Yesterday’s Songs: Two runs this prep and failed to fire on either occasion. Hasn’t won in yonks.
11. The Chairman: First up here. Best runs in past 2000m+. Hard to suggest a win in this grade over 1400m.
13. Top Me Up: Ran well but no match for Land of Plenty last start. Horse may be at very top here today. Can run well.
14. Rib Eye: Ran very well first up at the Bool. Big step up in grade again here though and has to improve.
Top Chances: La Bella Diosa, So Si Bon
High Chances: Top Me Up
Medium Chances: Akavoroun, Moss ‘n’ Dale, Ken’s Dream
Low Chances: Rib Eye, Killarney Kid, The Chairman, Onpicalo, Pilote D’Essai
Very Low Chances: Yesterday’s Songs
Expected Speed: Speed on out front with Onpicalo, Moss ‘n’ Dale and Top Me Up expected to push them along 4L+ above benchmark early.
Comments: La Bella Diosa is a horse the Hayes stable have a big opinion of. A Group 1 winner back in NZ, they have had time to get this horse right and with speed on out front, the ideal conditions will be presented for a late run over the top. So Si Bon from the same stable will be looking to do similar and is ideally suited. Outside of that, Akavoroun at odds could surprise while Top Me Up and Moss N Dale should run well.
Flemington Race 9 – 1600m – Chris Waller Hall of Fame HCP – 3YO
1. Iconoclasm: Awkward barrier but should find a suitable enough position in run. Sensational times last start and flogged a very good field. Hard to beat again.
2. Lord Sundowner: Respectable second to Iconoclasm last start. No Excuses. On speed here again.
3. Masculino: Got back and ran on well last start when 7th behind Iconoclasm from an unwinnable position. More speed on here to suit.
4. Groundbreak: Ran home well from on speed when 2nd behind Iconoclasm last start. Horse has won since which is solid. Groundbreak has been backed here but gets an awkward barrier.
6. Broadband: Third up this prep with 3 lead in trials. Failed to fire two lead in runs. Big ask.
7. Free Fly Too: Class 1 winner on lead in. Massive jump in class – hard to suggest.
8. Rossman: Maiden winner three back. Failed to fire last start behind Iconoclasm. Hard to suggest improvement needed.
10. Tbilisi: Get back run on type – bad barrier again but very well weighted again. With more speed on here may be better suited? Nice type.
11. Denero: Maiden winner on lead in here. Big class jump and ask.
12. Stratum On Fire: Two runs to date. Only just scored in a poor maiden on lead in. No thanks.
13. Woulda Thought So: Three runs this prep for two thirds and a fourth. Well up in class here. Hard to have but not worst here.
15. Keysor: Not a great finish last start behind Barbeque from ideal spot in run. Was still a nice enough run to figure in this type of grade for a place.
16. Own Sweet Way: Fourth ever run. Never won a maiden. No thanks.
Top Chances: Iconoclasm
High Chances: Masculino, Tbilisi
Medium Chances: Groundbreak, Lord Sundowner
Low Chances: Keysor, Broadband, Rossman, Denero, Woulda Thought So
Very Low Chances: Free Fly Too, 12. Stratum On Fire, Own Sweet Way
Expected Speed: Not expecting mad speed. 1-4L above benchmark with Broadband and Lord Sundowner leading.
Comments: Iconoclasm the standout here – horse is the real deal. Masculino looks the main danger on form while Tbilisi can finish off strongly over the top late.
