Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington on 18 March 2017 on Golden Slipper day. We had a strong week heading into this card today with a $105 treble landed on Night 3 of Cheltenham for those following on Twitter. We also landed our best bet last night at Moonee Valley after landing the best at Adelaide on Monday. This looks a wide and open card at Flemington today and there is some huge value on offer. Orient Line is a massive price and i’m going hard at the $51/$14 on offer. Euston Road should get us off to a very good start as i have the horse winning and favourite on ratings, while I can’t see how we can miss a place either. Fingers crossed for a good day. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 1 – Euston Road – 2 units Each-Way @ $7.5/$2.45
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Goodwill – 1.75 units Each-Way @ $9/$3.10
Best Value
Flemington Race 8 – Orient Line – 1 unit @ $51 to win. 3 units @ $14 to place.
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 6, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1200m – Emirates Melbourne Cup Tour Trophy
1. Kaniana: Good horse for the Weir yard that last prep peaked with a Group 3 win at Moonee Valley flashing home late after getting the split. Doesn’t win out of turn though and needs further than this.
2. Catch a Fire: Had her chances first up and hit the line hard too late. Blinkers on and up to 1200m.. .goes well here and has the ability to win. Respect.
3. Shakespearean Lass: Strong run 2nd first up at Caulfield behind Thermal Current. Failed last start in the Oakleigh Plate. Obviously a big step back in class here and has won in similar or harder previously. Only issue is a fairly poor record at the track.
4. Andrassy: Ran a huge race last start at Moonee Valley when out the back and flew home. Only previous run here was over 1400m and one paced. Unproven down the straight.
5. Tykiato: Last prep three starts for three wins in easier grades of races. Still, measured up very well on each occasion and last win was good overall. Should go well down the straight no problems here and goes well first up.
6. Invincible Heart: Just missed in a photo last start at course over 1100m behind Missrock. Was well backed on the day coming off some very average runs prior. Has to improve again but well enough suited.
7. Chat to Maggie: Couldn’t even win last start at Terang which is a concern to be running here. Not up to this for mine.
8. Euston Road: Bm-78 winner last start at Ballarat in an impressive manner. Didn’t beat much on the day but it was a good win. Coming off two very poor runs.. may have just turned the form around and can’t be dismissed.
9. Lake Como: Won three back at Moonee Valley before failing the next two starts and spelling. Goes well first up but this is certainly a tough ask class wise. Obviously has ability to run well if given an easy time out front.
10. Give Us a Go: Not the worst run first up when fairly beaten but ran 6th. Needs to improve obviously.
Comments: Several key chances in the race. Catch a Fire looks to be going the right way with a gear change while Shakespearean Lass goes very close on the two back run and previous form. Tykiato could produce anything today and the same with Invincible Heart that has to be considered. Finally, Euston Road looks to have turned it’s form around also and has to be respected. Very open race. Euston Road only has to turn up and repeat the last start effort to be winning here.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Euston Road – 2 units Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.45
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – VRC Thanks Greg Miles Trophy
1. Trenchant: Three runs this prep and failed to fire on all three occasions. 1800m back to 1400m where better suited but even so this is a tough ask on what has been shown previously.
2. Flying Jess: Amazing Guineas win 60 days ago on the Gold Coast beating the proven form line of Global Glamour on the day. Stays at 1400m and has to be respected. If going the same as last start, she is more than good enough to beat these. Looks a hot speed in the race also.
3. Theanswermyfriend: Strong run 2nd last start at course and distance when nabbed late by a very well backed horse in Mr Sneaky. Ran them along solidly start to finish and was a great run. Can run well here.
4. Wazzenme: Disappointing run last start when back in class and had every opportunity to return to form and showed little. Hard to have here on previous three runs.
5. Violate: Out the back and ran on solidly first up at Caulfield over the 1200m when ran home into 6th beaten just 2L behind Benz.
7. Bastille: Hayes runner that is going through the grades slowly. Maiden win up to BM-64 win which was very strong at Sandown and up to 1400m today now. Looks well suited here.
9. Pop: Blinkers off for this first up run at a track she has failed to fire at in the past. 4.3L 5th in G1 company over 1600m last prep obviously good enough to measure up here and 2nd in the Mornington Sires the previous run. Maps perfectly from the inside barrier and has to be respected.
Comments: A few winning chances with Theanswermyfriend and Flying Jess the obvious with the Hayes up and comer Bastille. For mine, Pop is the forgotten horse in the race and gets a dream run with a very low weight… 5th in a Group 1 over 1600m and $51.. let’s have a go!
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Pop E/W
Flemington Race 3 – 1100m – Baden Racing Trophy
1. Sword of Light: Steps back to 3YOF grade from F&M down the straight last start when just missed against MissRock when was in the worst part of the track. Going very well and looks well suited.
2. Brugal Reward: Strong form line horse with a 3FB-70 win and then big odds 1200m Group 3 winner last start at Moonee Valley. Unknown down the straight but obviously has the ability.
3. Hear the Chant: Much further forward last start at Moonee Valley when ran nicely for 5th behind Brugal Rewards. Was blocked for runs at critical stages. Obviously a good type.
4. Concealer: McEvoy runner that was a strong Group 3 winner as a 2YO down the straight. First up last prep ran very well for 2nd behind Samara Dancer but runs since have all been poor. Would need to have turned her form around coming into this.
5. Kentucky Miss: Chucked in the deep end the past two starts. Failed in Group 3 company end of last prep and then first up failed on the heavy at Randwick. Did win down the Flemington straight last prep on a soft track. Query over the good surface finding her very best?
6. Merriest: Strong runs last prep with a Listed win at Moonee Valley, placed in Group 3 company after that and finished off over 1400m 1.4L 5th respectable at course. Goes well at 1200m and looks the type that will appreciate a sit down the straight.
7. Leotie: Strong form lines last prep with a 0.2L 2nd to Group 1 winner I Am A Star over 1100m the peak run. Won over further also. Looks well suited here.
8. Overstep: Another horse with talent. First up no luck blocked for runs too far back. Previous prep placed in Listed grade twice. Can run well.
9. Sprung Dancing: BM-64 winner last start… huge step up in grade and struggle to see the ability on previous runs to beat all these.
10. Tan Tat Beauty: 3YO-F 2nd to Sweet Sherry last prep over 1200m at Moonee Valley. Lightly raced type. Pulled up with breathing issues end of last prep.
12. Beyond the Dream: Huge run 2nd first up last prep over the 1100m down the straight on a soft track 0.3L 2nd in Listed grade. Beaten $2 fav at Colac last start over 1100m though leading. Was horrible.
Comments: Tough race overall with several chances. Sword of Light the top pick from Leotie. Could pick 5-6 chances.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Sword of Light E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 1200m – TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes
1. Arctic Angel: Well backed two back when 3rd behind Catchy and Limestone in a quality race and last start at Randwick on a heavy track ran well. Back in class here and looks well suited.
2. Time Awaits: Big win last start from well back in the run at Morphetville in a fast time. Top quality filly who is more than good enough to measure up here.
3. Ploverset: Strong to the line late first ever run at Flemington beating home Madeenaty. Was a classy win and can run well again here.
4. Garrard: Bendigo maiden winner. 4L off Houtzen two back and run before 0.3L off Catchy. Obviously a horse with ability.
5. Beerzatbernz: Ran home nicely behind Time Awaits last start at Morphetville but still didn’t get close enough. Have to take on here.
6. Justice Glory: 2F winner at Sandown beating a nice type in Undoubtable Miss that won the 2YO feature in Adelaide on Monday. Obviously has ability and has to be respected.
7. Peristrophe: Maiden still. Ran nicely in Tasmania in 2YO-LR grade from out the back on soft.
8. Shoals: 4L maiden winner first up. Bolted in but didn’t beat a lot. Has ability but has to show it in this class.
9. Runway Queen: Beaten fav first up at Seymour. Struggle to see a place here.
10. Glad Guru: 1.6L 6th to Time Awaits first up. Can improve but needs to find a length or two to even measure up again.
Comments: This is a sensational race on paper with some very talented types with different form lines. Is the Adelaide form of Time Awaits worth thinking about? Is Justice Glory over the odds based on the 2nd horse winning a feature on Monday? Is Ploverset the real deal or was it just a winner in a poor race? Is Garrard the real deal? Is Arctic Angel the one to beat as form suggests? Why are they backing Peristrophe and Glam Guru?! So many questions and not many answers.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Arctic Angel and Justice Glory.
Flemington Race 5 – 1600m – Incognitus Blamey Stakes
2. Palentino: Continues to run well into races without winning this prep and the step up to 1600m is absolutely ideal today. Goes very well at this distance and most importantly, seems to fire and find many lengths at this track based on past Group 1 success. Watch for the money to come.
3. He or She: Ran very well and was backed accordingly first up over 1400m at course when winning off a hot tempo set by Hooked. Probably shouldn’t have got the win if it wasn’t for a bad ride on the leader for mine. Big step up in class and not well in at the weights.
4. Sir Issac Newton: Goes well enough over 1600m based on previous preps runs but in reality his very best distance is the 2000-2400 range. Hard to see him measuring up overall here at the weights against these top competitors over the unsuitable distance.
5. Real Love: Ran a blinder last start in the Peter Young and has had a break between runs just like the rest of these. First time this prep in WFA and back to 1600m. Goes well at this track and will run well.
6. Tosen Stardom: Strong WFA Group 1 2nd behind Black Heart Bart over the 1400m first up. The word is this is the best horse in the Weir stable heading towards a Doncaster type run and has been well backed in markets. Respect.
7. Harlem: French import for the Hayes yard. Group 2 placed over 2400m and best run was 3000m 4th before heading out here. Needs further than this.
Comments: With the scratching of Black Heart Bart i can’t see much value in the race. Tosen Stardom looks the horse to beat.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Tosen Stardom
Flemington Race 6 – 2000m – New York Racing Association Grand Handicap
1. Hursley: Beaten favourite the past three starts at $3 or less. Goes well over these distances and best runs are always off a strong tempo. Up in weight and back in class. Tough barrier to get a spot from.
2. Snitzelwood: Looks a horse with quite a bit of potential. Ran fairly last start behind Our Century and a few other good types. Looks nicely placed here but tough at the weights compared to say Hursley.
3. Red Shift: Nice enough type without being a superstar. Well placed winning last start over 2100m and this is a step up but not out of his class totally. Respect can run home well.
4. Duke of Ellington: French Import that is looking for the 2000m. Won in France over this distance but honestly didn’t have an impressive french career. Correctly rated here today and will need to improve form to win this.
5. Goodwill: Irish maiden winner. Gallant win two back at Caulfield in harder company from start to finish in a nice strong time. Last start fairly beaten over the 2200m by Honey Steels Gold at Bendigo. Will be on speed and i have a feeling the horse will be much better suited by a sit.
6. Waxing: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Up in distance again will suit but needs further again.
7. Gervais: Good win over a nice horse two back and then fairly beaten the last two starts by good horses on both days. Will be on speed battling home as always and will need to improve to win.
8. Peaky Blinders: Two wins in a row in easier grade heading into this. Strong wins on both occasions. Fairly beaten three back by Gervais though.
9. Don’t Plead Guilty: BM-70 grade winner last start at big odds beating some very average types. Not for mine here.
10. Stormy Shore: Poor the last three starts. Can’t have here to even place.
11. Wheal Leisure: Lightly raced runner. Ran very well fairly beaten by Parthesia over in Launceston – Parthesia failed since last night. Won well the previous start over 2040m at Moonee Valley in 3YO grade. Fairly beaten three runs back behind Gervais. Nicely weighted.
12. Via Cavour: Hard to suggest in this grade. Looks better suited to BM-64 grade and a such.
13. Lachie’s A Star: Couldn’t score in BM-58 two back but did win a BM-64 last start. Struggle to suggest here.
Comments: Four key runners here. The standout for mine is Goodwill at the large E/W odds. Tough horse and I hope they ride with a sit today.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 11
Strategy: Goodwill – 1.75 units Each-Way @ $9/$3.10
Flemington Race 7 – 1200m – York Racecourse Grand Handicap
1. Lord Barrington: First up and generally performs accordingly. Never placed at track in the past a big issue. Top weight and will have to be at his best. Consistent type normally but never placed in this grade either.
2. Staviva: Won 3 times first up in the past but just 1 place from 6 runs at the track in the past… but that being said the 1.9L 3rd behind Supido two runs back is red hot. Back in class here and looks well suited at the weights from a strong barrier. Key chance.
3. Boomwaa: Just kept running and running the past two starts but found one too good late. Back in grade here and up in weights but gets the Mertens claim. Respect his ability and will run well again.
4. Rich Charm: Got the win over Roman Fizz last start and a few others in a very hot time on what looked a firm track. Has won down the straight in the past but was disappointing off the slow tempo two back. The harder they go the better for his chances. Speed will be on.
5. Roman Fizz: Two strong runs then found nothing the last two starts. Struggle to suggest on current form.
6. Big Effort: Won 3 of his last four and absolutely bolted in the past two starts. Adelaide horses have an amazing record recently when coming here to Flemington. Looks a horse with ability.
7. Armada: Always looked to have talent but has struggled to get wins. Got one two back at Colac before failing last start at Sandown pulling up lame. I have to take on.
8. Thelburg: Bm-70 winner heading into this over an average type of Nordic Empire. Previous runs in 3YO grade didn’t measure up. Has to improve.
9. Sword of Justice: Always had ability and won well two back at Sandown. Ran very poor last start though at Moonee Valley and hard to trust back to 1200m.
10. Chateau Cheval: Took three runs of seconds to finally go to Sandown and just get the win over 1200m last start. Obviously has to improve to win this but will run well.
11. Verstappen: BM-70 2nd to Tigidig last start at Moonee Valley. Stays at 1200m and is good enough to run well here.
12. Aurelius Hero: BM-64 grade winner last start. Hasn’t measured up in this grade ever. Struggle to suggest.
13. Fastlane to Heaven: BM-64 grade winner in average time last start. Not for me.
14. Rain Fast: Couldn’t win a FMB-64 last start. Take on.
Comments: Open race with several key chances. It’s hard to look around the Adelaide raider at the prices based on the strong lead in runs.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 6, 10
Strategy: Big Effort E/W
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – Goodwood Racecourse March Stakes
1. Kenjorwood: Given a smelly ride first up when never tried to push forward and just took a sit on a horse that is clearly best on speed. Loves a hot tempo and sticks at 1400m today. Will have to be on speed from the barrier today.
2. Foundation: Very good UK import that has placed in Group 1 class over 1600m in the past. Looks aimed towards some big races and a strong run here won’t shock anyone. Can win.
3. Jacquinot Bay: First up here. Last prep won first up and finds strong wins at this track. Have to be going his best to win though.
4. Entirely Platinum: Hasn’t won since 2014. Last prep actually ran well first up in WFA-G2 class and then failed all runs after that. Respect his ability and obviously runs well first up, but doesn’t go well at Flemington.
5. Hazzabeel: Group 3 2nd last prep on the record. First up ran nicely 2L off Stellar Collision in similar grade. Up to 1400m today better suited and can run well today.
6. Hellova Street: Great win two back and last start also in WFA-LR grade back in Tasmania. Ran 0.5L 2nd to Burning Front three back and that is great form. Will be hard to get past from on speed.
7. Jessy Belle: First up today off a Group 2 victory over 2000m. Goes well over the 1400m distance and has been training the house down by all reports. Tough barrier though and will need to be able to swoop today.
9. Zebrinz: Two very solid runs in a row when won in Open grade two back and then 0.9L 3rd from the back in Group 3 company also!
10. Pin Your Hopes: Been spelling for 6 months. Best runs in the past have been over 1800-2000m and looks to run well here but not a winning chance.
11. Tarquin: First up today and goes well first up. In the past has measured up in similar grades of racing. Best has been seen over further than this the issue.
12. Stellar Collision: Horse is absolutely flying right now after a poor start to the prep. Up to 1400m is no issues at all and maps nice enough to get a good position. Well weighted.
13. Mubakkir: Led all the way last start and won well at course and distance. Much harder here with real leaders in the race. Has to improve.
14. Plot the Course: 0.8L 4th in Group 3 to end last prep over 1800m. Only won once over 1400m in the past and best shown has been 1600m+. Can run well enough.
15. Amarela: Found nothing last prep. Can’t suggest any better to be shown this prep and have to take on first up.
16. Orient Line: Two runs this prep and hasn’t been close on either occasion.. but wasn’t that bad last start when missed the start and settled out the back. Blocked for runs the final 200m when joining into it with He or She and Zebrinz. Looks big overs here.
Comments: Wide race this one. Helllova Street and Stellar Collision both deserve to be well backed today but both are not backable at the prices. The horse that has been missed in the market for mine is Orient Line. Deserves to be the same price as Zebrinz if not better and i can’t let this value slip by. This is probably the value of the day. Expecting this could be the big Quaddie Value Leg.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 16
Strategy: Orient Line – 1 unit to win @ $51. 3 units to place @ $14
Flemington Race 9 – 1600m – The Curragh Grand Handicap
1. Bradman: Old mate never runs a bad race and even got a win four back (doesn’t win out of turn). Won 1 from 25 in this class in the past and 1 from 9 at track. Last few starts haven’t inspired winning confidence here.
2. Rezak: Two wins in a row heading into this today and no reason why he can’t make it a third. Only query is if they go along strongly out front as last two wins have been on only average tempo races. Barrier is also another query for the right run.
3. War Legend: Won nicely enough first up unexpectedly at Sandown. Goes very well at that track. Never won at this one though but likes 1600m. Respect his ability out of 3YO grade finally. Listed grade placed.
4. Aurum Spirit: Out the back and ran on well last start at Wang behind Exacting. Previous runs apart from the win have been only fair. Has the ability but another that doesn’t win out of turn.
5. Queen of Wands: Goes nicely enough over this distance with Group 3 placing in the past. Hasn’t won in a while though.. but back to a Good track is key here.
6. Atlantic City: Has been running well for the Kav yard with four very strong runs in a row. Up to 1600m a questionable distance with 0 places from 3 runs in the past, but i don’t see any issues with it. Back down in class and won well last start.
7. Portman: Too far back off the slow speed last start but finished off solidly to just miss. Clearly top ability horse and rates well here.
8. Super Haze: McEvoy runner. 2800m 0.8L 5th last prep. Best obviously over further in the past. Hard to see the progression first up here over this distance. Looks a Melbourne Cup horse in the Spring.
9. Strike Force: Going well right now and never far off. Finally got the win two back in BM-70 grade but fairly defeated last start by Miss Sydney who has failed since. Has to improve again.
13. I Boogi: Strong win over Rushven last start in BM-70 grade and Rushven won the Alastair Clarke since last night. They gapped third. Very strong form lines and he might have turned the corner!
14. Stormabrewing: FMB-64 winner two back and ran nicely from the back at Wang when 3rd to exacting but had every chance on the day. Has to improve onwards and sit further forward from the barrier.
15. Lost Command: Looks the likely leader. BM-64 winner last start. Huge step up in grade. Has to improve obviously.
16. Red Inca: Hard horse to catch. BM-58 winner three back. Not in this grade.
Comments: Tough race to finish the card. I Boogi looks a great chance here but Portman is the top pick. Can’t go wrong backing both as we will get the right runs in the race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 13
Strategy: Back Portman and I Boogi.
