Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington on 18 February 2017. We come into Flemington off a sensational night out at Moonee Valley getting our best bet of the weekend home while we had a fair bit of bad luck on the other two bets.. either way we were more than 10 units up and hope to continue the good recent run today. This looks a tough card with only a few races worth betting into As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 – Duke of Brunswick – 3 units @ $2.20 to win. Great Esteem – 0.5 units @ $12 to win.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Harlow Gold – 2.5 units @ $4.20 to win
Best Value
Flemington Race 6 – Inside Agent – 1 unit Each-Way @ $17/$4.20
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 7, 8, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1400m – The Asian Executive Stakes
1. Khutulun: Hasn’t won in five runs this prep but went close two back at Caulfield before failing at Gosford. Maps to get back and run on in easier grade of race today back to 1400m. Obviously has ability and will run well.
2. Pure Pride: Group 1 5th last start and Group 2 second the run prior over 1400m at course and distance. Maiden horse that is very very good. Looks ideally placed.
3. Ample on Offa: Good run last start at course and distance when had to do a bit of wide work with top weight. A little down in weight and claim also of Mertens has her very well in here.
5. Diamond Baroness: Continues to run well and win and keeps going through the grades. Up in weight today and she has to improve onwards. Won’t have it all her own way.
6. Chiavari: Strangely went around favourite last start at Caulfield and got back and was never a chance in a race won from on speed. Up in distance here a struggle to suggest.
7. Fast Approaching: Expected to lead today. Every chance last start at course and distance and will need to have found lengths.
8. Ma Jones: Continues to run well without winning. Last start fairly beaten 2nd to Diamond Baroness. Can run well.
9. Sharing: Sandown winner last start over 1200m and up to 1400m ideal. Huge jump in class though.
10. Braemar: Consistent horse that never runs poorly who won two in a row and then two seconds the last two starts. Up in class though makes it hard.
11. Easy Flyer: Very good run 3rd three back at Caulfield before two failed runs since. Has to be on speed and has to improve.
Comments: Two clear standouts at the price. Diamond Baroness looks a very good lay today and I have to take the horse on. Khutulun is the value in the race based on the two back run in Listed company when 0.4L 3rd. Pure Pride is clearly the horse to beat coming out of Group races and ideally placed here out the back running on late.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Pure Pride and a small bet on Khutulun to win
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Japan Racing Association Trophy
1. Charlie Boy: Disappointing run last start at Caulfield when I thought he had every possible chance coming off a nice run at Gold Coast. Up in weight and not good enough for mine on the last run.
2. Great Esteem: Well weighted today after a forgive run last start when was slightly lame on the day. Goes well second up and will be leading and hard to get past with his rolling tempo style of racing.
3. Duke of Brunswick: Obviously won well last start at Caulfield over the 1400m. Up 2kg here and will appreciate the tempo being on again here. Obviously the horse to beat.. never run well here in the past an issue.
4. Self Sense: Every chance first up when just simply not good enough. Stays at 1400m and really wants further. Never placed from 4 starts at Flemington.
5. Ancient King: Needs further.
6. Zebrinz: Hasn’t won in a very long time. Two runs this prep hasn’t been bad but he has been slow away both times and beaten 4.9L and 2.6L. Has to improve.
7. The New Boy: Hasn’t won in nearly a year and that was at Caulfield in easier. Has been running well without winning. Can’t have.
8. Sadaqa: Obviously has ability but hasn’t won in over a year. Ran nicely enough at odds last start at course and distance. Step up in class though.
Comments: Two standouts in Duke of Brunswick and Great Esteem. With the prices the way they are i’m keen to be backing Duke of Brunswick and Great Esteem to win as we get them both at $1.88 odds.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Duke of Brunswick – 3 units @ $2.20 to win. Great Esteem – 0.5 units @ $12 to win.
Flemington Race 3 – 1200m – Singapore Turf Club Trophy
1. Churchill Dancer: Pretty poor first up in similar grade of race run slowly on speed. May just want it a little stronger today which is on the cards. Top weight and has to improve.
2. Smart Dart: Bit of an unknown really down the straight after two runs down the straight for 0 places and I think the horse was poor on both occasions. Thought he was better over the 1400m last start at Caulfield but no disadvantage really over the 1400m at these weights. Have to respect.
3. By The Grace: Very hard horse to catch. Doesn’t produce his very best until later into preps and is first up today. Needs further.
4. Taddei Tondo: Never won at track and just 1 place from 7 runs at track. Only 1 win from 7 first up runs and 0 places after that so clearly is better later into preps and at other tracks. Hard to suggest 18 runs 0 wins in class.
5. Well Sprung: 3 runs 0 places at track in the past. Last prep did run well in Listed grade 2nd to Keen Array at Caulfield but was poor first up and hard to suggest.
6. Inspector: Very strong run 2nd to Odyssey Moon last start at course and distance in Group 3 company. Respect and looks well in here.
7. Kirani: Good run two back at course over 1100m and then last start was nice enough from on speed. Has to improve but up to 1200m should be ideal.
8. So Si Bon: Trialed very well heading into this prep but clearly he is better over further than this. That being said he went well in Group company over 1400m and won his maiden over 1200m. Win wouldn’t be a total shock.
9. Boomwaa: Nice enough return to form the last two starts, but this is much harder today.
Comments: Tough race to judge. I have to take on Smart Dart at the track and So Si Bon at the distance. I’ll side with the strong Group 3 form of Inspector that will measure up well here at the weights.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Inspector E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 1100m – Talindert Stakes
1. Taking Aim: Two runs heading into this but yet to get a win on the board. Obviously ran very well at Randwick in hard company and has to be respected.
2. Groundbreak: Strong enough 2YO run last prep behind Veranillo who has won well at the top class this prep. Looks to have the ability heading into this and may just be one of the stables Slipper horses.
3. Ducimus: Expensive purchase and proved his worth first up winning nicely from start to finish. Big step up in class but will improve with the run heading in.
4. All Too Royal: Well beaten first up behind Ducimus. Hard to see the turn around in form required off that last start run.
6. Platinum: Well backed Godolphin runner last prep when slow away and pulled up with breathing issues. Went up big odds but has been backed since.
8. Sustained Decision: First starter for the Sadler yard. Market will tell you.
9. Time Awaits: Strong run 2nd to Formality heading into this coming off a very strong win back home in Adelaide. Looks a very nice type and well suited down the straight.
10. Sanadaat: Hayes stable is flying so no surprise they will back this horse again today. Obviously was a solid run but has to step it up against this lot again.
11. Something Violet: Moonee Valley winner first up and has to be respected for the win. Was a nicely priced race that day but didn’t exactly beat too much for mine. Has to improve again.
12. Pandemonium: 2.3L off Catchy which is a solid enough form line heading into this race. Up to 1200m ideal and looks the type that will have no issues down the straight.
13. Prepare to Win: Fairly beaten by Something Violet last start. Hard to suggest.
Comments: As tough a race as it looks. Time Awaits is the proven horse in the race for mine and the top pick while Taking Aim and Pandemonium both look nice chances along with Sanadaat… and the chances keep going on and on.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Time Awaits E/W
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – The TAB Vanity
1. Legless Veuve: Bar plates off last start and got away with an easy time out front and won. Not sure that is a great form line to bring into this and she won’t be hard fit like some of these having such an easy win… up to 1400m better today but has to improve again.
2. Nurse Kitchen: Obviously looked a nice horse as a 2YO and then last start won a Group 2 on soft over 1600m. Can run well over 1400m but needs the run.
3. Harlow Gold: Group placed stayer than has returned in very good form back at home. 1100m 3rd behind I Am a Star. Won by 4L over 1400m last prep and won in 3YO grade over 1600m so don’t think she is just a stayer. Looks ideally in today and the only negative is the barrier.
4. Extra Olives: Two wins in a row going through the grades. Big step up again here but obviously has shown enough ability to run well.
5. Princess of Queens: Well related type that won nicely enough last start at Caulfield over 1400m. This looks harder.
6. Kenedna: Fairly beaten behind Princess of Queens last start which is a concern. Has to improve.
8. Florida Keys: Won first up before fairly beaten last start behind Fuhryk blocked for runs. Certainly looking for further on previous preps. Others preferred.
9. Cassadee: Maiden winner over 1400m at Randwick first up… beaten favourite two runs since. Hard to suggest on form.
10. Stryking Miss: Maiden only winner. Struggle to suggest to place.
Comments: Can’t look around the top three numbers here in Legless Veuve, Nurse Kitchen and Harlow Gold. At the prices, I have Harlow Gold a nice price here and worth of a bet.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Harlow Gold – 2.5 units @ $4.20 to win.
Flemington Race 6 – 1400m – CS Hayes Stakes
1. Seaburge: Class horse that should run well today over 1400m. Last prep went close in Group company over 1400m and 1600m including 0.2L 2nd in the Guineas behind Divine Prophet. WFA-G1 2nd to finish the prep over 2000m. Clearly a top chance.
2. Morton’s Folk: Average at best first up but also didn’t help that they ran along slowly. Will be better suited up to 1400m but not the ideal lead in run to improve him up to win a Group race.
3. Hey Doc: On speed over-racing last start with the slow tempo just behind the leaders and obviously ran on well without winning. Up to 1400m is ideal but just like with Morton’s Folk, he is coming into this off a run that wouldn’t have done much for his fitness as they would have liked. Maps well is the big key.
5. Throssell: Last prep placed in easier grade over 1400m behind some decent types on softer tracks. Failed to fire when up in distance. Obviously has ability but not for me.
6. Inside Agent: Sensational winner at course and distance last prep from the back before catching the ye the next two starts. Simply forgive first up never suited and back to his track is obviously ideal. Will be hitting the line hard late.
7. Silvera: McEvoy runner who went through the grades back home last prep but didn’t measure up over further. Nice enough type over these distances.
9. Manolo Blahniq: Nice type of horse on previous preps runs in group company and first time ever up to 1400m a concern from this barrier. Has to improve.
10. Wazzenme: Looks nicely positioned today from the inside barrier to shut off and come home hard late. Last prep sensational run 3rd behind Sacred Elixir over 1400m. Has ability.
11. Land of Plenty: Being talked up as the next big thing this spring but I still have my queries. Was a nice run first up and last prep did run well behind Hey Doc.
12. Malaise: BM-70 2nd last start as $1.50 favourite. Previous start beaten fairly behind Gratwick but was a nice enough run. Has to improve clearly.
13. Ballet Master: BM-64 grade winner two back before failing last start at Caulfield. One step below these for mine.
14. Kaching: Looked a nice type last prep with some good runs from the back, but certainly a non-winner on patterns. Can’t have based on first up run.
15. Hardham: Nice run last prep behind Russian Revolution over 1100m but the runs after that were far off a win. Hard to suggest especially from barrier.
16. Yulong Shengdao: Maiden only winner. Well beaten last start in easier when ran poorly. Hard to suggest on what we have seen.
Comments: Great contest this one. Several key chances at the ratings but the only one I have my eyes on is Bowman jumping on Inside Agent. Hey Doc is the one that has to be run down from out the front.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11
Strategy: Inside Agent – 1 unit Each-Way @ $17/$4.20
Flemington Race 7 – 2000m – Ascot Racecourse Trophy
1. Cadillac Mountain: Ran on well last start in similar level of race when 0.3L 4th behind Goodwill and actually hit the front 100m to go. Good horse ridden cold.
2. Like a Carousel: Hasn’t gone close the past three preps. One I can’t have.
3. Dodging Bullets: Continues to run well and find 1 too good on most occasions… but to be fair it was a great run last start. Clearly on speed runner with Croc Rock today.
4. Golden Mane: Three runs this prep and been well beaten on all three occasions. One i have to take on.
5. Annus Mirabilis: Been running sensational races this prep. 2800m back to 2000m but did win at 2400m as well. Has to be respected and can win over this distance… but do prefer over further.
7. Hursley: Off the speed as favourite last start and came into the race well but never made up enough to win. Needs strong tempos. Will be suited by a strong final 800m but has to improve.
8. Sir Laszlo: Continues to run well without going close to a win this prep in easier. Well outclassed here back to 2000m.
9. Post D’france: One of the few main chances today. Good run two back and then great run last start from a bad spot at the turn grinding home. Has the ability to win.
11. Houdini the Great: Four runs this prep in much easier and over shorter distances when well beaten on all but one occasion. Struggle to suggest the improvement.
13. Skulduggery: Good win three back in easier grade. Two back run was okay but too far back. Lame last start and comes into this off a lameness issue is a bit of a concern. Has to improve.
Comments: With Crocodile Rock scratched from the race there is now a lack of speed in the race. I think Hursley won’t get it run to suit at all today. This is Dodging Bullets race to lose while Post D’France is the main danger.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 7, 9
Strategy: Back Dodging Bullets and Post D’france
Flemington Race 8 – 1000m – Black Caviar Lightning Stakes
1. Terravista: Never missed a place at the track or first up in the past. Best runs have been over this distance up to 1200m so no issues. Bomb proof and will run well.
2. Flamberge: Very strong run first up with a huge weight in handicap conditions. Great lead in run and D Weir B Rawiller combine on a horse that is a multiple Group 1 winner in WFA-G1 and Group 1 class. Huge overs today.
3. The Quarterback: Will be running well today but the 1200m is his very best distance so the Newmarket is the main aim. Can place but can’t see him winning.
4. Counterattack: Non-winner. Been competing in the top level the past two preps for just the 1 win over much further. Wants further also.
5. Illustrious Lad: Went through the grades last prep and improved and improved. Group 2 winner and then WFA-G3 unlucky not to beat Lucky Hussler. 1000m may just be too short today though to see his very best.
6. Faatinah: Just simply not up to this grade. Yes he won a Group 2 but he hasn’t won close to that best run since.
7. Spieth: Should be a WFA-G1 winner from last prep. Went through the grades and found his very best over 1200m. 1000m first up is certainly a query distance wise and we know he will be getting well back. Personally want to take him on here at the price and follow on to the Newmarket.
8. Supido: Had a nice jump out heading into this. Group 1 3rd to Black Heart Bart is obviously a top class lead in form from last prep. Previous runs beaten Illustrious Lad and Admiral! Very good horse and may just go to another level this prep.
9. Orujo: One i’m more than happy to take on. Not good enough to place.
10. Heatherly: Proved that she is up to this level last prep with a WFA-G1 2nd behind Extreme Choice at Moonee Valley. Goes well at track and likes the 1000m.
11. Flying Artie: Group 3 winner into Group 1 winner last prep. Went to another level last prep but that was over a further distance which is a huge query today. Has to be at his best.
12. Star Turn: Showed his best clearly last prep around a turn at Caulfield in WFA-G2 conditions and was fairly beaten on speed at Flemington over the 1200m. Looks the type to enjoy the 1000m.
13. Missrock: 1200m Group 3 winner in fillies class. Didn’t show a lot last prep over sprints. Hard for me to suggest.
Comments: Everyone is thinking this is either a 3YO or Speith wining race, but Supido comes out of the ratings as my top pick with the form over the 1000m and perfect lead in with a strong trial. I do feel Flamberge is well over the odds today also.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 7, 8, 11, 12
Strategy: Supido E/W
Flemington Race 9 – 1700m – The Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy
1. Lucques: Goes well enough first up and while he goes okay over these distances, it was clearly proven last start his very best is over further. Tough top weight.
2. Entre Nous: Comes into this race off a very strong run 2nd at course over 1400m when he probably should have won. Up in weight but still well enough in. Extra distance is ideal. Barrier only issue.
3. Our Century: First up today over what is probably an ‘unsuitable’ 1700m distance, but he will still run well. Best seen last prep over 2400m+… but can still measure up here.
4. Try Four: Hurdles last prep. First up over 1400m actually ran well behind Duke of Brunswick. Suited by distance but has to improve.
5. Hard Call: Big win last start at Moonee Valley. Can improve onwards here up in distance from an on speed position.
6. Adirondack: Good run 3rd behind Duke of Brunswick last start. Expect he will go on with it again this prep up in distance and looks well suited.
7. Martinvest: Looking for further on previous runs.
8. Divine Mr Artie: Over-raced last start but didn’t finish off. Very good run two back when should have bolted in. Have to forgive the last start run and give one last chance here.
9. O’lonera: Ran well first up over the 1500m behind Burning Front. Can improve onwards and upwards but needs further again to find his very best. Could win.
10. Double Bluff: 2500m back to 1700m. Has to improve back to this distance for mine.
11. Hokkaido: On speed last start and fairly beaten. Hard to suggest the improvement needed on runs to date against this next level of class.
12. Gervais: Ran a nice race in 2nd last start at course and distance and there has been a winner from the race since. Has the ability to measure up.
13. Tuff Host: Hasn’t won a good race since his last win at Moonee Valley. Can’t have.
Comments: Wide Quaddie leg to end the day with several chances. I have to go with the front runners in Hard Call and Gervais on their previous runs.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 12
Strategy: Back both Hard Call and Gervais
