Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on 17 March 2018.
Action returns to Flemington again for an action packed day with the rail moving out 3m after a super hot rail last Saturday. Another hot 33’c day with strong winds forecast up to 40km in the afternoon, which will make racing tricky and could provide another pattern on the track at least late in the day.
Flemington Race 1 – 1200m – Lexus Melbourne Cup Tour Trophy – Mares Plate
1. French Emotion: First up. Looked a genuine star on the rise early days but hasn’t been able to snag a Group race. Last prep was 2.1L or above off a win but that best performance was Group 1 class over 1600m. Suited over further.
2. Deja Blue: Strong win at Geelong four runs back. Much better form lines needed here. Step back to 1200m from 1400m better but not a type for this.
3. Quilista: Great type and ran very well second up in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate. Huge jump back in class and ran elite times. First time down straight….. will be ready for this.
4. Hear the Chant: Travelled very well first up over 1100m at course. Got the race run to suit but still recorded some strong data. Can improve again.
5. Lady Selkirk: First up for nearly a year. Last win was over 1600m.. Previous two wins were also 1600m. Would be shocked to see the horse suited over this distance.
6. Sister Kitty Mac: Tough run last start on speed at Moonee Valley. Up in class here but suited over the distance and down the straight. Has the ability to finish off strongly. Is the horse good enough for this step up?
7. Written Era: Won first up last prep in easier over this distance. Beaten 2.3L down the straight over 1100m in Group 3 class to end last prep. Shown enough in the past to suggest a good showing here.
8. Go Down: Beat some real average types last start but smashed them by 5L. Was suited by the speed on the day. Step back to 1200m here questionable? Need to run a few career peak to measure up.
10. She Brings Hope: First up today over 1200m. Huge jump in class from what she measured up in. Doubtful.
Top Chances: Quilista, Hear The Chant
High Chances: Written Era, Sister Kitty Mac, French Emotion
Medium Chances: Deja Blue, Go Down
Low Chances: Lady Selkirk
Very Low Chances: She Brings Hope
Expected Speed: Sister Kitty Mac with Meech onboard will be ridden to make it a true 1200m out of the gates. Expect anywhere from 2-5L above benchmark to the 600m.
Comments: Quilista is stepping back from a promising Group 1 run to this grade. Hear The Chant is stepping up from a very strong first up win. Sister Kitty Mac looks the surprise horse while Written Era is the unknown as well first up.
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – St Vincent’s Hospital – 125 Years Handicap – 3YO Handicap
2. Scarecrow: Maps ideally to sit just off the lead from the barrier. Got perfect ride last start in a hard run race and showed significant class. This doesn’t look any harder.
3. Iconoclasm: Hasn’t shown enough sectional wise to represent a favourite chance in this race for mine. Short turn around from a 64 grade win. Will be forward and good spot but huge query on horse late in race.
4. Muraahib: Sat more forward last start but still well off them. Showed elite closing speed and just missed. Could be ridden more aggressive early today to take a spot 1 off 3 back or rails 3 back. Gets ideal run.
5. Holbien: Over did it out front last start when led at Flemington and flew around. Expect to get an easier time out front today but will still ensure a genuine tempo. Query over the horses final 600m being good enough to hold out the best of them.
6. Swaffham Bulbeck: First run in Melbourne after winning a maiden and running second in Class 2 up in Sydney recently. Has to improve significantly to just place.
7. Indernile: Let down like a genuine top quality horse last start at Flemington. Will naturally be closer to the speed today – good enough to win.
9. Black and Tan: Ignore first up run when not suited one bit by tempo on the night. Best from the past would have this horse well in it. Don’t dismiss.
10. Forsure: HUGE jump in class here from a Pakenham maiden. Couldn’t suggest.
11. Sheezadashing: Ignore first run this prep – never suited and still ran well. Has been backed. Would still need to run a career peak for mine.
12. Tbilisi: Out of same race as Sheezadashing and Black and Tan. Out the back and ran on well not suited. Have to go better than it ever has before though.
Top Chances: Muraahib, Indernile
High Chances: Scarecrow, Black and Tan
Medium Chances: Iconoclasm, Holbein
Low Chances: Sheezadashing, Tbilisi
Very Low Chances: Forsure, Swaffham Bulbeck
Expected Speed: 3-6L above benchmark early setting up a true test.
Comments: Muraahib and Indernile appeal here at the odds closer to the speed in a smaller field in a race that will be run slower than last start allowing the horses significantly more chance to chase down the likes of Holbein and Scarecrow who are genuine chances. Black and Tan is the hidden run from last start – the horse has run the times required to win a race like this.
Flemington Race 3 – 1100m – Hoppegarten Racing Trophy – 3YO Fillies
1. Time Awaits: First up and trialed nicely on lead in. Group 3 winner over 1400m. Placed in Group 3 last prep and 4th down straight behind Shoals.
2. Limestone: Group 1 4th down the straight last prep. Went around favourite first up over 1000m and never got into it after being slow out 3-wide no cover. Can improve here.
3. Fox Swift: Failed to fire first up. Respectable runs in the past including a win down the straight but this horse has a lot to prove here.
4. Ploverset: First prep measured up down the straight winning in listed grade as a 2YO. Failed to fire last prep as a 3YO and needs to go to a new level here.
5. Demerara: Solid win first up when not fully tested to win by 2L at Moonee Valley. Holy Blade come out and won well since. Have to respect.
6. Luqyaa: First up today coming off a non-winning prep. Placed in listed grade down the straight first up last prep… best run was over 1400m.
7. She Knows: Beaten first up this prep in Class 2. Best run last prep was first up over 1000m in city Sydney. Has to improve significantly for this.
8. Freeze Over: Solid enough last start in similar grade of race. Didn’t finish off at all. Need to improve but best is good enough to go ok here.
9. Tarcoola Spirit: Best run last prep was at Moonee Valley second in listed grade behind Blondie. First up run was very poor. Best is good enough to compete here for a win.
10. Tardis: Got the right run last start at Pakenham. Big jump in class. Very hard to suggest.
11. Soul Star: Three runs this prep. Maiden winner and not bad two back in similar grade off a solid tempo. Not the worst here.
12. Ruby’s Reward: Three runs this prep. Finally got a maiden win last start. Huge jump here.
13. Moet Rose: Two runs last prep. Hard to suggest on last prep form. Need to have improved significantly.
Top Chances: Demerara
High Chances: Limestone, Tarcoola Spirit, Time Awaits
Medium Chances: Luqyaa, Soul Star, Fox Swift
Low Chances: Moet Rose, Tardis, Ploverset, She Knows, Freeze Over
Very Low Chances: Ruby’s Reward
Expected Speed: Hard to predict exact speed with Freeze Over dropping back to 1100m and She Knows first time down straight expected to lead them. Could go around 1-2 lengths below benchmark early up to 5 lengths above.
Comments: Demerara will be very hard to beat with all fair luck in running just off the speed runners. Main dangers Limestone and Time Awaits while Tarcoola Spirit is the value runner in the race.
Flemington Race 4 – 1200m – TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes – Group 3
1. Krone: Solid first ever run behind Viennese Star and ok listed grade win last start at Morphetville. Big step up in grade to this level though.
2. Khulaasa: Strong run last start down the straight and a few weeks between runs ideal. Prairie Fire form lines are strong. Respect on times.
3. Metronome: 3-wide the trip at Moonee Valley winning with class last start with a low weight. Up to 55kg here. Likely to hit the front at the 200m… may just have superior late sectionals to these especially if they walk.
4. Sundarbans: Not disgraced last start when a respectable 2nd to Metronome. Couldn’t see her turning the tables here.
5. Naduri: Wasn’t suited last start by the tempo run down the straight but even so only made fair ground late. Expect improvement here though.
6. Cristal Eyes: Respectable maiden run first up at Ballarat beaten by a nice type in Tin Hat who has measured up in town. Expect the horse to improve here.
7. Des Moines: Ran into a good one first up at Caulfield and was just run down late. Jump in class again here the issue.
8. Pure: First here coming off only one run last prep where failed. Have to take on.
9. Crown Dancer: First starter. Unplaced in trial.
Top Chances: Metronome, Khulaasa
High Chances: Cristal Eyes, Naduri
Medium Chances: Krone, Sundarbans, Des Moines
Low Chances: Crown Dancer
Very Low Chances: Pure
Expected Speed: Could be one of the slowest run races of the day. No natural horse looking to push a strong tempo. Expecting 5L below to 1L above average early + middle.
Comments: Expecting Metronome to rebound big time here and go to another level from an on speed position. Khulaasa is the obvious danger from off the speed while Naduri can also improve significantly along with Cristal Eyes.
Flemington Race 5 – 1600m – Blamey Stakes – Group 2
1. Tosen Stardom: Couldn’t improve further than last start condition wise. Step up to 1600m suits more again today. Last run at Flemington won a Group 1. Also won a Group 1 at 1600m last prep. Going the right way and looking for speed on here.
2. Humidor: Strong return first up. Step up to 1600m ideal and won last time at course and distance when sent around. Can win off a very hot or just average tempo.
3. Hellova Street: Deep into prep. Won last two races in listed grade over 1400m and 1600m at home. Big step up in grade here and not convinced he is going as well as 4 months ago.
4. Odeon: Nice enough return over what was probably an unsuitable distance. Listed grade winner last prep over 1800m at this track. Group 1 placed over 2500m previous prep. May need another run.
5. Cool Chap: Strong return first up in Group 3 class over 1400m. Step up to 1600m here ideal. Not a Group winner yet but has run well here in the past and won in Open grade.
6. Radipole: Pattern against last start when rattled home and claimed second. Step up in class here. 5th in Group 1 to end last prep and step up to 1600m ideal. Open class winner. Dual nominated every chance it goes to Sydney.
Top Chances: Humidor
High Chances: Tosen Stardom
Medium Chances: Cool Chap, Radipole
Low Chances: Odeon, Hellova Street
Very Low Chances: None
Expected Speed: Hellova Street will run them along about 3-4L above average early and middle. Confident in this speed occuring.
Comments: Expect Humidor to be significantly improved from last start and suited by a position close to the leaders and most importantly 2-3L closer to Tosen Stardom who was at it’s top last start.
Flemington Race 6 – 2000m – Singapore Turf Club Trophy – BM-80
1. Cougar Express: Failed to show anything two runs this prep and short turn around up to a more suitable distance. Still has a load of condition to come.
3. Cullingworth: Over-raced the entire race last start at Caulfield and previous start at MV blocked for runs. Just got to forgive and looks very well suited here. Would want to see the horse OFF the rail.
4. He Ekscels: Huge jump in class here and was gifted the win last start at Sale off a crawling tempo. Not a great lead in for mine and needs to improve. Did win an Open grade 1800m at Caulfield last prep off a solid tempo.. best good enough but query on total fitness.
5. Sherlock Holmes: Starting at 2000m this prep which is a good idea. Ran ok times over 1800m first up and best run was 3rd up at Caulfield in similar grade behind Violate. Has to be respected can run well here especially now settled in Australia.
6. Archery Peak: Strong run two back but hasn’t ever run times needed to measure up here. If they crawl will be well suited.
7. Addison: Nearly a month between runs. Still more to come fitness wise. Ran very well in harder class last start. Step back here and has to be considered.
8. Mr Optimistic: Two poor lead in runs when they have crawled and horse hasn’t been suited. Three back run just missed at course over 1600m and step up to 2000m should suit?
9. Unrealistic: Hard horse to gauge here. Hasn’t measured up previous runs in town. Have to take on.
10. Wannon Warrior: Strong on speed run when tempo was crazy hot and horse kept finding. Less tempo here on speed and much better suited.
11. Big Pat’s Pontiac: Out the back and just kept finding to the line off a hot tempo last start. Previous run was well suited off a slower tempo and will get that here.
12. Condamine: 5 length win at Terang but really didn’t beat much that day. Huge jump in class here, don’t be fooled IMO.
13. No Commitment: Crawled around out front last start. Never run solid times so unknowns here.
14. Amendment: Solid win last start but they crawled around. Never run time.
Top Chances: Wannon Warrior, Sherlock Holmes
High Chances: He Ekscels, Cullingworth
Medium Chances: Addison, Big Pat’s Pontiac
Low Chances: Codamine, Archery Peak, Cougar Express, Mr Optimistic
Very Low Chances: No Commitment, Amendment, Unrealistic
Expected Speed: Strong early speed throughout with Wannon Warrior, He Ekscels, Sherlock Holmes or Cougar Express pushing the tempo 4-5L above benchmark.
Comments: A market where it feels like the bookies are under-valuing the run of Wannon Warrior last start and Sherlock Holmes best run in the past being at 2000m from a yard that is simply flying. He Ekscels, Cullingworth and Addison are the main dangers on paper.
Flemington Race 7 – 1400m – March Stakes – Listed
1. Seaburge: Couldn’t be working any better at home but has shown nothing on the track to date. Gear changes a worry.
2. Sovereign Nation: Get back to last run on type. Was ready to go in the Group 1 first up and this is a big step back in class. Best in the past would go well here.
3. Kiwia: First up today over an unsuitable distance to deliver strong times. Wins wouldn’t be a total shock but hard to suggest over 1400m.
4. Nozomi: Strong win first up at Flemington. Was no luck involved got a great ride. Can improve onwards again like last prep peaking 2nd up. Maps for good run.
5. Wyndspelle: Well back in class today but runs this prep have only been average at best. Super poor last start and needs to improve.
6. Kenjorwood: Still fitness to come working into prep. Well below this on current form.
7. Mask of Time: Only run in Australia last prep ran super times. Legit Group 1 class horse on form back in France and showed that first up. 1400m short of best the big query but odds are nice.
8. Theanswermyfriend: Negative gear changes hurt chances. Trialed well on lead in. Been off a while and change of stable a query. If run fast very hard to hold out.
9. Coldstone: Perfectly suited by pattern on day last start with a good win at Flemington. Taken a long time to get back to the track though with a month off the scene scratched previously. Hard to ignore.
10. Dodging Bullets: First up here. Best seen in past over further and deeper into prep.
11. Rising Red: Ok enough trial on lead in. 2nd in a Group 1 over 2400m to end last prep over in NZ. Best runs over further in past and wants further.
12. Overshare: Perfect ride last start to score a good win at Caulfield. Previous run great form. Up to 1400m huge query here. Maps well.
13. Burrum’s Buzz: Best run ever for horse was last start off a crawl behind Jac Bay. Hard to suggest.
Top Chances: Nozomi, Mask of Time, Theanswermyfriend, Overshare
High Chances: Sovereign Nation, Coldstone
Medium Chances: Seaburge, Wyndspelle
Low Chances: Rising Red, Dodging Bullets, Kenjorwood, Kiwia
Very Low Chances: Burrum’s Buzz
Expected Speed: Expect Mask of Time, Theanswermyfriend or Overshare to ensure a strong tempo 5L above benchmark or greater early and throughout.
Comments: A tricky race on paper with several key chances in the race. Nozomi is hugely under-valued again here and will certainly drift… while Mask of Time could blow them away at odds if a hot tempo is run. Overshare a query up to 1400m but looks a top type while Theanswermyfriend has to be considered but glue on shoes a massive concern. Coldstone and Sov Nation the two outside of those as main threats.
Flemington Race 8 – 1600m – The Curragh Racecourse Handicap – BM-80
1. Naval Warfare: On speed runner. Measured up to significantly higher level than this over in the UK. First up here and suited best at this distance. Big chance. Should lead.
2. Portman: Failed to fire last start over 1400m and steps up to 1600m here where has run very well in the past. Can improve from a better barrier and run well.
3. Top of the Range: Big run last start at Caulfield and will get a strongly run race again. Have to be very good to win from this far back though.
4. Pow Wow: Low rating international import. On speed runner. Not one for me.
5. Soho Ruby: Out the back in a strongly run race last start and recorded some legit times. Well back in class here and will be fitter for the run. Can sit further forward today.
6. Snipfit: First up on speed at Sale and failed to finish off. Really poor run. Didn’t lead. Can run better than that and lead around at a brutal tempo… but can’t finish off. Not for me.
7. Balcazar: Looked a good type last prep when measured up at Flemington over 1600m and ran some legit sectionals. Three runs this prep have all been crawled along out front. In much easier last start got the win but in my opinion didn’t finish off as well as I’d like stepping up to this.
8. Abyssinian: Four runs this prep. Had every chance the past two starts but has been running well below what is needed to win this. Up to 1600m untested at distance. Can improve but big ask in first prep.
9. Nova Joe: Up from BM-58 class to BM-64 last start and couldn’t win. Not convinced here.
10. Toorak Playboy: Deep into prep and hasn’t won yet. Crawled last start and not suited. Previous run was decent but well below what is needed here.
12. Filbert Way: Five runs this prep and none have shown me enough class to finish top 5 here. Have to take on.
Top Chances: Naval Warfare
High Chances: Portman, Soho Ruby, Top of the Range
Medium Chances: Abyssinian
Low Chances: Balcazar, Pow Wow, Toorak Playboy, Snipfit
Very Low Chances: Nova Joe, Filbert Way
Expected Speed: Expecting the Internationals to take up the running. There is a big unknown on the tempo here. It could go from average to 7L above average early on.
Comments: Market is under-estimating just how good Naval Warfare is in comparison to these runners. Should lead them around and be hard to catch. Portman and Soho Ruby have elite late speed and can position closer to the speed today. Top Of the Range is a good type and big improver but a query from the position in run.
Flemington Race 9 – 1200m – New York Racing Association Grand Handicap – BM-80
1. Milwaukee: First up off a short freshen up of 60 days. Won in similar class last prep at Sale over 1200m. Best runs in the past have been at 1400m but can measure up and run ok here.
2. Blue Tycoon: Strong win last start at Morphetville off two previous wins. Times are solid and horse will improve again.
3. Hay Bale: Huge fail last start off a strong tempo. Previous times run were strong. Best in past down straight off good tempo but not overly strong and can sprint well late. Good enough.
4. Handsome Thief: Not suited one bit last start. Ignore run. Going super and previous two runs suggest it. Nearly a month between runs and jockey change with a claim is a bonus.
5. Castelo: Strong win from the back first up in much weaker than this. Best in past good enough to run well but has to improve onwards and may want further?
6. Oscar’s My Mate Pa: Found little from back first up over 955. Up to 1200m better suited.
7. Highland Beat: Strong on speed run first up when 3-wide for a portion of the race. Loomed as winner but died out late due to fitness. Will run better here. Big chance especially down straight.
8. Bord de Gain: Solid win nearly a month ago at Moonee Valley. Sectionals solid enough to suggest a good run here.
9. Our Mallee Hoff: Nice lead in win at Swan Hill but this is a HUGE step back up in class. 2nd to Bord De Gain last start. First time down straight.
10. Sacred Sham: They crawled around at Bendigo and this horse was simply the best home in a very average race. Previous run behind Hay Bale was nice but has to go up to levels here.
12. Essence of Terror: Strong run last start when blocked for runs and hit the line strongly. Good form lines and goes well down the straight. Very well in at weights.
13. Galaxy Raider: Changed stable. Needs further.
14. Electric Charlie: Found an easy race first up at Wangaratta. A few weeks between runs. Horse has to go to another level here and at these distances it’s just a watch for me.
15. Steel of Madrid: Three wins in a row but yet to show enough to level up here. Has to improve a lot to place.
16. Fille de Charlie: Solid type of horse. Should have been suited last start but found little. Hard to suggest here even at weights.
17. Avapardi: Strong run second up at Sandown but gone backwards since. Can’t see it here.
18. Land of Plenty: Moved to DK Weir yard. Horse has proven to be a legit top class horse over 1200-1500m last prep. Ran 3rd behind Redkirk Warrior second up last prep. Respect here.
Top Chances: Land Of Plenty, Essence of Terror, Highland Beat, Handsome Thief,
High Chances: Blue Tycoon, Hay Bale
Medium Chances: Milwaukee, Castelo, Sacred Sham, Bord de Gain
Low Chances: Electric Charlie, Fille De Charlie, Our Mallee Hoff, Oscar’s My Mate Pa
Very Low Chances: Steel of Madrid, Galaxy Raider, Avapardi
Expected Speed: Four on speed runners. If Highland Beat leads them along with Hay Bale then they can run 5-6L above benchmark and make this a genuine test.
Comments: One of the widest races of the day and very hard to play confidently. Four top chances with value all around this race. Could easily back all top 4 and save the next two to get a result.
