Welcome to The Profits preview for the Flemington 17 February 2018 card on Black Caviar Lightning Stakes day. This meeting is an absolute cracker with loads of potential in this meeting and going forward. Expect strong speed to be run throughout the day with the best horses rising to the top.
All bets will be uploaded by 10.30am Saturday morning to ensure more stable markets and bets.
Best Bets
Flemington Race 6 – Banish 1U @ $10.00. 3U to place @ $3.10
Flemington Race 7 – Island Missle 1U @ $13. 3U to place @ $4.33
Flemington Race 8 – Supido 1U @ $34. 3U to place @ $5.50
Flemington Race 1 – 1100m – The Asian Executive Stakes
1. Prairie Fire: Flew home first up at Caulfield from an unwinnable position and recorded a blistering time. Much better suited down the straight and will be coming hard late. Blinkers go on.
2. Sanglier: Two runs last prep over the 1000m with strong runs behind Nomothaj and Long Leaf. If he has trained on he is a main contender here.
3. Invincible Lad: Snowden runner expected to set the speed here. First ever run flew along early and couldn’t sustain it late. Last start times at Bendigo were average at best. Massive improvement needed on last two runs. Did SP $4.40 in Blue Diamond Prelude for a reason.
4. Bold Type: Respected in betting last start and ran well enough for 4th. Failed only run down straight.
5. Concrete: 2nd run ever today after a maiden race 3rd at Balarat. 3+ weeks between runs and will obviously need to find lengths.
6. Roobeena: McEvoy runner. Group 3 1000m 2nd last prep behind Setsuna and then failed to win a Ballarat maiden as a big drifting favourite last start. Need to see from yard based on best and worst. Blinkers on.
7. Khulaasa: Hayes runner that was a close 0.1L 2nd to Crossing The Abbey at course over 1000m 40+ days ago. Crossing The Abbey measured up and won in city since. Respect ability and improvement to come.
8. Dharma: Looked a nice enough type from the yard first up but didn’t do much justice time wise. Surprised if could find the improvement needed.
9. Nuclear Blitz: Unseen Hawkes runner.
10. Pierro Belle: Smashed them in the trials and times were sound. Looked better than Kinky Boom on the day. Great odds – could be anything!
Expected Speed: Benchmark to 2L above Benchmark
Most favoured horses: Pierro Belle, Prairie Fire, Sanglier
Least favoured horses: Bolt Type, Dharma,
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m – Japan Racing Association Handicap
1. Velox: Didn’t have the speed required last start and finally fit. One more chance to run a race.
2. Khutulun: Short back-up after solid win off reasonable mark at Caulfield. Get back run on here again. Improvement from yard to come.
3. Imperator Augustus: Maps beautifully 1/1 or 1/2 today. Level of this horse is certainly limited but can run well here. Needs to find a length or two.
4. Mr Churchill: Used up early last start and couldn’t finish off late. Stays at distance (potential this horse is more a 1600m horse) and maps for the charmed rails run to finish off late which probably suits this horse best.
5. Cry If I Want To: Ok win at best last start times wise. Get back on rails 3-4 pairs back and ride home hard late. Has reached a reasonable mark in the past.
6. Khartoum: Poor barrier. First up over 1600m average at best. Up to 2000m+ where better suited but best over further. Did run 2nd in Listed grade 2500m to end last prep.
7. Stormy Shore: Two very solid lead in runs here in similar grades of races. Run two back behind One for Later is questionable form on the winners last start run. Not the worst here.
8. The Mighty Jrod: 2kg claimer onboard back up to 2000m where best suited. Well out of class again like last start but did stick on strongly. Out and out stayer.
9. Midas Man: Won three in a row including a BM-70 last start at Moonee Valley at odds. Another step up and McEvoy takes ride.
10. Bubba’s Call: Won 3 in a row and then defeated 1.3L 2nd last start in easier. Tough ask up to 2000m.
Expected Speed: Benchmark to 4-5 lengths above benchmark
Most favoured horses: Mr Churchill, Khutulun, The Mighty Jrod
Least favoured horses: Bubba’s Call, Cry If I Want To
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Velox E/W
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – TCL TV Handicap
1. Banda Spice: Changed trainer after last Sunshine Coast run. FOur runs this prep.. first up was very good over 1050m. Failed to fire over 1400m last start and even last prep. Best as a sprinter surely.
2. Ma Jones: First up for nearly 300 days a query. Ran well in Group 2 over 1600m to end last prep. If at top with chop king junior on and from the Weir stable, you have to respect. Times tell the tail, top class horse. Could settle only a little back from midfield.
3. Mamzelle Tess: Strong lead in run last start when had no favours and stuck on for third. Maps to get over and potentially get a better run today 1-2 back with cover. Great type.
4. Spanish Reef: On speed type – leader. Loves the speed on and performs best when speed in races. 1600m best run last prep so 1400m not too short of distance surely?
5. Tykiato: Get back 3-4 the rails most likely. Best run from four back has this horse well in. Was well below best last start at Sale. Needs to be at top in yard.
6. Sharing: Get back run on type that continues to impress. Could sit slightly further forward and be ridden for luck from barrier but i’d expect to go back to last and take luck out of it. Good enough.
7. Bellaria: Weir horse. Go back from barrier to near last rail. Won 2 of last 3 but hadn’t run a city class time until last start. Has to improve again.
8. Alma’s Rossa: Strong 3.5L win in a low grade race at Ballarat last start. Finally back ready to run and win, beat an ok type on the day. They did crawl there so even so hard to suggest here.
9. Facts: Three runs this prep and shown very little. Hard to have on very best here.
10. Miss Adequate: Won once from six runs this prep with a BM-58 win at Geelong. Huge jump in class and ask here. Will run them along out front but a few factors against.
Expected Speed: Above benchmark by 2-6 lengths
Most favoured horses: Mamzelle Tess, Sharing, Ma Jones
Least favoured horses: Bellaria, Alma’s Rossa, Facts
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Mamzelle Tess E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 1600m – Goodwood Racecourse Handicap
1. Setinum: Strong return to form runs the past two starts over 1400m and 1500m. Should be no issues with 1600m on past runs, but has to improve once again with closing speed at this weight.
2. Sin to Win: Natural leader in the race with Downhearted. When allowed to lead has never pushed the tempo on without being made to by another horse. Best runs in past for mine were over further, but he still ran very well over the 1400-1600m distances and has to be respected from on speed.
3. Plot the Course: Disappointing run last start not finishing off the race solidly and looked great in the yard. Short backup, can he improve?
4. Charlevoix: First up here and has run 2nd the past 3 starts first up. Very best distances are 2000m+.
5. So Poysed: Strong win at Moonee valley last start with speed on early and speed to burn late. Previous start had turn of foot required off a slow speed as well. Top class horse and Williams takes ride. Maps perfectly to run them down.
6. Domino Vitale: Huge drift last start at Moonee Valley and ran accordingly. Williams jumps off and Childs on for first ride. Best can measure up but is short of very best right now.
7. Kings Will Dream: Lightly raced import. Two starts for two wins in Australia. Needs to find lengths again but does have the ability third up.
8. Downhearted: Set a solid enough clip last start over the 1800m and step back to 1600m ideal here. Natural on speed runner who will be very well suited by the tempo expected today on the short backup. Hard to beat.
9. The Avenger: Hard horse to catch. Every chance 2nd last start behind So Poyseed and may be best suited to races run slightly above average early and late. May be outclassed in this grade.
10. Notio: Slowly run early and fast run late, closed off fine last start and steps up here. Query over the form though.
Expected Speed: Lengths below benchmark
Most favoured horses: So Poyseed, Notio, Downhearted, Kings Will Dream
Least favoured horses: The Avenger, Plot the Course, Charlevoix
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Notio and SoPoysed
Flemington Race 5 – 1200m – Royal Ascot Handicap
1. Late Charge: Three trials on lead in and looked to be going ok. Was a 2014 Flemington winner and 3L off in Group 1 in the Guineas and Sir Rupert Clarke. Obviously large injuries off a year then ran 4th in listed then off 900 days. Need to see in yard.
2. Oak Door: Good run 2nd first up this prep before failing at the Gold Coast. A month between runs and change of stables. Best in past has the horse well in this – especially down the straight.
3. Ken’s Dream: Two solid runs back this prep. Expect a stronger tempo on today and will be hard to hold out if at his very best.
4. Lucky Liberty: Solid return first up in the Christmas Stakes and has had 50 days between runs. Was targeted at that race and peaking. Strong final 400m sectionals that will measure up here.
5. Nasdex: Flwe home last start at Caulfield for 3rd behind Snitty Kitty and Lady Esprit. Looks well suited here but query if best is 1000m.
6. Leodoro: Went to Sale for an easy kill last start and just got it as a short priced fav. Continues to go well at Flemington but this is harder again.
7. Atlantic City: Flew home just missed last start at course and distance. Times were very solid and will measure up here in this class.
8. Lizard Island: Horrible last two preps. Trial was ok leading in. Could have turned the corner? Still, needs further.
9. Fast Cash: Best in past has been in easier than this. Would be a real test to place today.
10. Play Master: Best run in the past a one off down the straight over 1200m good enough to figure if they fly along. Last three runs have been average at best.
11. Portman: Good horse first up after a long break. Best seen over 1400-1600m.
12. Prima: Needs further.
13. Handsome Thief: Strong finish last start in a race run and won on speed. Gets his chance down the straight here with no real excuses well weighted today.
14. Meridian Star: Nice fast type. When to the Sapphire Coast of all places for a win last start. Needs to improve again but goes well enough.
Expected Speed: 3-5L above benchmark
Most favoured horses: Nasdex, Ken’s Dream, Atlantic City
Least favoured horses: Leodoro, Fast Cash, Portman
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back Nasdex and Atlantic City
Flemington Race 6 – 1400m – The TAB Vanity
1. Aloisia: Maps for perfect spot in running 3 back 1 off. Best run in the past was over 1600m and steps up at 1400m here ready to roll.
2. Bring Me Roses: Get back midfield at best type who has performed best in past over 2000m+. This looks short of horses best today.
3. Banish: Get back type first up like many here from Cummings yard. Won last two before break. Performs well at 1400-1600m and has to be considered on best.
4. Twitchy Frank: Huge disappointment last start in a race that didn’t suit speed wise. Stays at 1400m here. May have just been off out the back… fact Weir kept going big postive for this horse. Should be allowed to lead them around today.
5. Rimraam: On speed type best over 2000m. Handles all distances but really unproven at this distance in this class.
6. Anchor Bid: First up today. Best over 1600-1800 on last few preps runs. Best run was over 1600m at course when they ran along out front when she finished 2nd to Royal Symphony.
7. Paris Rock: Got the dream run last start behind Twitchy Frank. Was well backed. Big jump in class here. Does map well.
8. Shokora: Nice run last start 4th behind Twitchy Frank at course and distance. Has to obviously find at least 1.1L today with 33 day break between runs. Maps poorly.
9. Caribbean Pearl: Four runs this prep. Ran very well two back in much easier before stepping up to this grade and not showing enough. Improvement needed.
10. Neurotic: Two runs this prep. Last start ran some very nice times on the way through the grades. Big step up here but looks a nice type.
11. Shagra: Average back to 1200m last start. Questionable at this distance in this class.
Expected Speed: 5-12L above Benchmark
Most favoured horses: Twitchy Frank, Aloisia, Anchor Bid, Banish
Least favoured horses: Paris Rock, Bring Me Roses, Shagra
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Banish 1X3
Flemington Race 7 – 1400m – CS Hayes Stakes
1. Cliff’s Edge: Likely leader coming over from the wide barrier. Potentially sit outside of Embellish or Scarecrow on speed. Huge run and win first up over 1200m and step up to 1400m ideal. Best in past at this track over 2000m. Will be hard to beat. Barrier only negative.
2. Embellish: 2nd in the $1million Karaka Million race over 1600m 3 weeks ago. Previous Grouop 1 winner over 1600m two runs prior. Best runs at further is only query.
3. Kentucky Breeze: Proven top quality 1400m horse on last prep runs at Flemington over this distance. Big jump needed again here and needs to be going well. Horrible map from barrier.
4. Main Stage: Concussion Plates front first time. Trialled nicely leading in. Best runs last prep were 1600m+ and 1400m does look short of best.
5. Cao Cao: Good win over 1400m last start at Caulfield with improvement to come. Maps for cover which just may not be this horses cup of tea? Query barrier for mine.
6. Sully: Trialled up well. Best runs last prep were over 2000m+. Happy to watch here.
7. Muraaqeb: Ran super first up over 1200m at Caulfield last start. Up to 1400m ideal and well suited at Flemington. Horror barrier the issue and will either get trapped wide or go back.
8. Eshtiraak: Nice type of horse. Fair lead in. Goes well over all distances 1500 to 2500m and has to be considered a chance here for Hayes stable – will need luck from a cover ride.
9. Pissaro: Best runs have been 2000m+. Not good enough over this distance.
10. Vinland: Looked a very nice progressive type last prep and then failed at Caulfield. Will need to improve to measure up here.
11. Island Missile: Deep into prep already. Just missed last two starts. Up in class again here and back to 1400m. Best in past can measure up.
12. Eclair Sunshine: Average run first up over 1100m. Best in past over 1400m good enough to figure here but that was an outlier run. Tough from mapping.
13. Peaceful State: Massive win last start over the 1300m against the pattern. Guineas 2nd last prep showed this horse is worthy of this grade and class – maps perfectly.
14. Sunquest: Looked a level below these on last prep runs. First up couldn’t win a maiden over 1200m.
15. Scarecrow: Comes out of a slowly run 1300m at Morphetville. Big wraps on this horse but is yet to run a time.
16. Grunt: D Oliver onboard. Rode the Trial as well. Only 3 runs in the past and looked a reasonable type with a 3.3L win last prep over 1600m, but times suggest this is a big jump again. May be good enough to make the leap.
17. Paret: Best run last prep was well short of what is needed here. Hard to suggest for mine.
18. I Have Arrived: Maiden winner. Couldn’t win a BM-64 before going for spell.
Expected Speed: Very strong tempo 10L above benchmark for the race.
Most favoured horses: Cliff’s Edge, Embellish, Peaceful State, Island Missile
Least favoured horses: Paret, Sunquest, Pissaro, Sully
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Island Missile
Flemington Race 8 – 1000m – Black Caviar Lightning Stakes
1. Redzel: The champ is here. Go forward from barrier and settle where he likes inside or outside rail areas. Trials on lead in super. Consistently puts in Group 1 class grade runs down the straight and is even better at 1000m for mine.
2. Terravista: Ran the best he ever has last start 2nd to Redzel in the Darley Classic back in November. Going well at home. Last win was 1000m down straight.
3. Hey Doc: Best run ever by horse was over 1600m. 1000m looks well too short of his very best and only scored Manikato due to a great ride on a biased track. Good type but not a Group 1 1000m sprinter.
4. Redkirk Warrior: Best runs have always been first up in the past. Hasn’t seen 1000m in a long time so hard to tell just how well he can go here, but for mine, he is a step below Redzel.
5. Rock Magic: Old mate. Very best seen at 1200m in the past. 1000m is testing on him. A few lengths short of elite.
6. Ball of Muscle: Running very well on lead in. Had to go back to listed grade to get a win last prep – ran very good times. Could have finally made the jump to Group 1 grade this prep?
7. Supido: Looked the next big thing last prep but failed to deliver on the big stage. Best run ever was over 1000m on a heavy track. Goes equally or slightly worse on Good tracks but does love them. Goes well at Flemington. Need to have improved this prep again.
8. Missrock: Lovely type of horse that was best last prep first up before failing to get a win after that. 1000m was perfect first up and has to be considered the right race here again if handles the pace on down the straight.
9. Super Too: Speed for day and has continued to trial well on lead in. Just never been top quality in the past and Snitty Kitty beat her fair and square last prep over the 955m. 1000m is obviously the dsitance for the horse and may suit Flemington like when 2nd in 2016 to Spright.
10. Formality: A horse with massive ability that has really failed to deliver a win on the big stage. 3rd beaten 0.3L in the Coolmore on what was a masssive run and with just 53.5kg looks the main threat to Redzel.
Expected Speed: 10+ lengths above benchmark – Fast run elite Good 1 race.
Most favoured horses: Redzel, Formality, Terravista, Ball of Muscle
Least favoured horses: Rock Magic, Missrock
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Supido 1×3
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – York Racecourse Handicap
1. He’s Our Rokkii: Horrible barrier may need to snag back further than they want? Best runs over further than this, but can run well on it.
2. Tally: Returns from an unsuccesful last prep campaign. Best runs have been around 2000m+ but does love Flemington.
3. Royal Rapture: First up run was a decent return all things considered at Caulfield. Expect speed on here and much better suited. Can run nicely.
4. Kenjorwood: Old mate first up for 200 days. Choppy Junior on so not fully discounting chances and can always run a solid time.. but hasn’t won since 2016 over further.
5. Radipole: Best runs and win have come in the past over further and off strong tempos. Suited but distance?
6. Saracino: Best runs came two preps back. Already tow runs this prep and failed on both occasions. Not for me.
7. Chamois Road: Continues to run well this prep without winning races. Big step up needed here.
8. Nozomi: Goes well early in preps. Trial didn’t show me alot. Maps for the right run if ready over this distance. Won here over 1400m last prep also.
9. Pure Pride: Won early on in prep but failed last five runs since after lameness issues. Hard to suggest even with 3 more weeks break.
10. Coldstone: 50 days since last run so should still be fit? 51kg! Best runs in past have been 1600-2000m though so short of best? Loves speed on.
11. Zebrinz: Two runs this prep and both fails compared to finishing positions of last prep. Needs to improve.
12. Kingsguard: Not the worst run 5th last start at Caulfield. Needs to improve again though to place here.
13. Cougar Express: On speed runner but surely needs further – query if can even go with them early at this distance.
14. Glenrowan Prince: HUGE run 2nd last start at Caulfield behind Manolo Blahniq when set a strong tempo and just kept on finding through the line. Suited again here and will push the tempo.
15. Runson: On speed runner. Query if suited by tempo here today at 1400m.
16. Manolo Blahniq: Massive win last start. Gets ideal speed on again. Just needs luck to get out and will be hard to beat again.
Expected Speed: 5-10 lengths above benchmark
Most favoured horses: Manolo Blahniq, Royal Rapture, Nozomi, Radipole
Least favoured horses: Runson, Kingsguard, Chamois Road
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Manolo Blahniq to win
