Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington 16 September 2017. Racing returns to Flemington on Saturday where we should have a Good 4 track after a nice amount of rain around all week. Expecting the inside rail to play well and give horses out the front, in the middle and out the back equal opportunity to win the races today. Looking forward to some solid results. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Hartnell – 10 units @ $1.90 to win
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Redkirk Warrior – 4 units @ $3.10. Voodoo Lad – 1.25 units @ $4.20
Best Value
Flemington Race 2 – Muraahib – 1 unit Each-Way @ $6/$2.20
Other Bets
Flemington Race 1 – Roomooz – 2 units @ $4.40. Arctic Angel – 0.5 units @ $26. Saver bet Jorda – 1.50 units @ $3.00
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6, 11, 13, 14
Quaddie Leg Two: 1
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 7, 10, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1100m – Cap D’Antibes Stakes
Expected tempo: Average
1. Jorda: Godolphin runner that ran very well last start in G3 class at Rosehill and brings top quality 1000-1100m form. Big chance here.
2. Arctic Angel: Looked a progressive type last prep with Group placings but failed to fire a shot first up when very plain. Hard to suggest.
3. Ploverset: Nice enough 3rd first up before well beaten last start when tongue over the bit. Forgive run but still has to improve lengths.
4. Split Lip: Adelaide runner second up this prep. Fairly beaten with a low weight in Adelaide and this looks much harder. Did look a nice type last prep.
5. Roomooz: First run at track down the straight the only issue today for this progressive type that is dropping back in trip and will be significantly fitter today. Well suited here.
6. Luqyaa: Nice enough win first up last prep at Moonee Valley in much easier before being beaten by Split Lip. Clearly has the ability to run well but has to improve for mine.
7. True Excelsior: Fairly beaten by Roomooz and Tulip last start at Moonee Valley after a nice maiden win. Others preferred.
8. Pageantry: Maiden winner. First up wasn’t terrible but wasn’t great either. WOuld be surprised if made the extra step up.
9. Fox Swift: Moe maiden winner two back. Last start 2nd behind Blondie who has proved to be an okay type.
10. Mintha: McEvoy runner first up after 120 days. Trialled not great on heavy. Never won a race but wasn’t far away last prep in good company.
11. Elle Gagne: Cranbourne heavy 9 winner last start. Clearly wants it wet to have a chance. Not convinced she is well suited here.
12. Miss Vixen: Fair run first up well beaten behind Blondie. Has to improve.
13. Moet Rose: Price runner 2nd up after a close maiden win. Has to improve but that was a good enough maiden.
Comments: I’m only really interested here in Roomooz, Ploverset, Jorda and Arctic Angel. Arctic Angel does look good enough to be value, but the standouts are Roomooz and Jorda both bringing strong form lines into the race.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Roomooz – 2 units @ $4.40. Arctic Angel – 0.5 units @ $26. Saver bet Jorda – 1.50 units @ $3.00
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Pin & Win Plate
Expected tempo: Below average to average to above average
1. Royal Symphony: Obviously looked a very good type last prep with very good wins over 1400m and 1600m at course. 70 days between runs and has had a few track gallops the past two weeks. Didn’t look 100% at Moonee Valley to be though so should present with more fitness to come.
2. Showtime: Maiden winner at Wyong as a $1.26 chance. Previous start fairly beaten at Canterbury. Previous prep 2.75L off Doubt I’m Dreaming at Moonee Valley. Has ability.
3. Hualalai: First up run was ‘solid’ without impressing behind Merchant Navy and a few others. Struggle to suggest even though he is up to the more suitable 1400m. Need to see from yard.
4. Muraahib: Slashing run first up over 1200m when no luck and really should have won. Williams takes the ride and maps perfectly from barrier 4. Every chance today to stake his claims for the guineas.
5. Cliff’s Edge: Went for an easy kill second up and found it over in Adelaide on a soft track. Back to dryer today but certainly well enough suited up to 1400m to respect today.
6. Lone Eagle: Never a chance over 1200m first up. Up to 1400m suitable and will be getting back and running on strongly here.
7. Toga Picta: Looked a very good type last prep. One run into this prep when pulled up with a coughing issue that is a big concern. Did work home well and Gold Standard form is solid.
8. Eclair Sunshine: Fairly beaten behind Cliffs Edge last start. Can’t suggest.
9. Sebfire: 4th up today after two heavy track wins before 3rd fairly beaten behind Cliff’s Edge. Hard and fit but surely outclassed on previous form.
10. Mighty Boss: Price runner that is 2nd up today after getting beaten 3L by a nice type at Sandown over 1300m. Others preferred on form.
11. Conquest: Another Snowden runner on the card and Winks gets the ride. 1.9L maiden winner last start making a huge step up.
12. Ouyang Feng: Another Price runner second up after a fair BM-64 run but really wasn’t competitive. Has to find lengths.
13. Metson: Cranbourne Heavy track winner in maiden grade by 4L. Looks to have a fair amount of ability but clearly has to measure up and i couldn’t trust up to this.
14. Hulme: Wodonga maiden winner last prep. First up here and only fair in trial on lead in.
15. Garrard: Fairly beaten first up at Moonee Valley – good type of horse and goes well at Flemington but has to improve here.
Comments: Royal Symphony will be out the back early and running on late here and will need to have improved to be chasing this lot home. Only battled second raters last prep and this is the testing material. The clear danger looks to be Muraahib who maps perfectly here today and looks a great E/W chance.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Muraahib – 1 unit Each-Way @ $6/$2.20
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – The Sofitel
Expected tempo: Above average
1. Dibayani: Groupoo 2 placed last prep and G1 placed (beaten 0.1L) the same prep over 1600m. 1400m slightly short of his best and he goes horrible around the Melbourne way. Won’t be surprised to see him hug the outside rail in the straight.
3. Mio Dio: Continues to run well in good class but was outmatched last start over 1400m at Morphetville. G3 winner the run prior over there on Heavy.
4. Chocolate Holic: Just missed last start at Caulfield behind Grande Rosso when 3-wide no cover most the trip. Clearly a huge run that day and will be coming from the back again here today with another massive run.
5. Great Esteem: Not the worst run at all first up when held up for runs and not beaten a long way. Looks to be back in form to my eye on that run and will lead them around today. Goes well over this distance. Respect.
6. Snitzson: Looked a nice type as a 3YO including a G1 placing over 1600m. Ran home well first up when never a factor in the run but is going in the right direction. Can win.
7. Count Da Vinci: Held up for runs to end last prep in the Winter Championship and ran very well. Has to be respected first up here even though you may think he needs further.
8. Radipole: Ended last prep with a big win in handicap at Caulfield. Back to 1400m the only big negative (the distance).
9. Magicool: Needs further and needs to be over injury.
10. Dodging Bullets: Held up for runs first up when ran well enough behind Grande Rosso and Chocolate Holic. Can improve onwards but best is over further again.
11. Odeon: Last prep won 3 of 5 races.. but not convinced this is a 1400m horse first up.
12. Mr Sneaky: Huge win first up when not even 100% right and gets in here at a significantly positive 54kg. Up to 1400m where better suited and last run at course and distance was a 3YO Handicap win. Big chance and great barrier.
13. Pure Pride: First up run was nice enough in mares BM-84 grade without being overly impressive. Looks to be outclassed here second up for mine.
14. Theanswermyfriend: Faced the breeze second up over 1200m and was found out late by Mr Sneaky and well beaten on the day. Good run but clearly improvement needed here again to hold him out. Tough from the barrier.
15. Violate: Ran home well first up at Caulfield from out the back. Expect to sit further forward today from the wide barrier and to improve lengths today. Can run well.
Comments: Dibayani, Burning Passion, Chocolate Holic, Snitzson, Mr Sneaky, Violate and Theanswermyfriend all look winning chances. Wide open race but hard to ignore Mr Sneaky. Getting to a price that isn’t backable though as i’d bet down to $4.00.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Mr Sneaky to win
Flemington Race 4 – 1200m – Bobbie Lewis Quality
Expected tempo: Average to above average
1. Lucky Hussler: Old mate hasn’t won since November 2016 and didn’t place all of last prep. 1200m is certainly short for this horse that has never won at the track.
2. Scales of Justice: First time at the track. Never won at distance. Goes well first up but clearly this horse is looking for further. Should be double figure odds.
3. Redkirk Warrior: G1 winner last prep at course and distance beating Voodoo Lad by 2L. 2kg worse off today at the weights but clearly flying at home by all accounts. Only negative is if there is rain around as this horses best is clearly on dry.
4. Voodoo Lad: Strong winner first up in G3 The Heath when beating a decent enough field. Didn’t look wound up at all on the day and a little fat to be honest. Will improve for the run and has to be considered. Only negative is no win down the straight but 2nd in the Newmarket does speak volumes.
5. Burning Front: Needs Further. Never won at track.
6. Japonisme: Two lead in trials after a place less prep. Has won at track in the past but best is on wetter ground and hasn’t been near top.
7. Saracino: G2 winner over in NZ over 1400m. First up at The Heath ran horrible after looking great in the yard. Hard to suggest on that run.
8. Savile Row: Two runs in the past in easier grade over 1200m for two wins. G1 placed over 1600m and G1 placed over 2000m. Personally believe this horses best is 1600m+ and while he can run well here i’d have to take him on.
9. So Si Bon: Going well this prep and two runs both close 2nds. Well in at the weights today and has to be considered a big chance once again. Goes fine down the straight.
10. Attention: Well placed Snowden runner. 4th in the Gold Coast Guineas last prep before failing in the Moreton Cup. Trialed okay leading in.. Best will be needed here and it may just be over further.
11. Lizard Island: 2nd prep back from injury. Hard to see a place here.
12. Land of Plenty: Looked a progressive type last prep with a placing in G3 company but this is a tough ask – looking for further.
Comments: This looks a very clear cut race for mine with Redkirk Warrior, Voodoo Lad and So Si Bon the three likely chances. When all is said and done, I think Redkirk Warrior will be very very hard to beat off here and will stamp with authority a claim for an Everest spot. More than happy to save on Voodoo Lad.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Redkirk Warrior – 4 units @ $3.10. Voodoo Lad – 1.25 units @ $4.20
Flemington Race 5 – 1200m – Danehill Stakes
Expected tempo: Average
1. Summer Passage: 1200m G1 weinner back in New Zealand on a Soft 5 before coming out here and running a brave 2nd on a Heavy 8 in the Sires G1 in Autumn. First up today and as long as he handles the straight, he will be well in this late and looks a sprinter type unlike a few others on the way up to 1600m distances.
2. Jukebox: Strong win first up in the G32 Vain running down Plutocracy late. Good win and can go on with it. Really feel this horse is a sprinter not a miler and will be peaking here.
3. Azazel: Nice enough win first up when not fit before covering a load of ground last start at MV and running nicely enough 4th. Step up in class here is the issue.
4. Taking Aim: Well beaten first up at Rosehill in G3 class. Up in distance 100m and on pat form should be a chance, but best may now be over further.
5. Overshare: Looked great in the yard last start at Moonee Valley and led them a merry dance out front. Good win and can go well again here down the straight.
6. Catchy: Soft 6 track, underdone from the yard and 1100m against a rock hard fit good type in Crown Witness first up did her in. Will improve lengths today but even so, is 1200m the horses distance based on going up to 1600m as the goal? Williams off to ride Jukebox and Bayliss on.
7. Al Passem: Well beaten first up but wasn’t a bad run. First time down the straight a negative and looks to be a big type that would want further than 1400m to my eye.
8. Plutocracy: Presented as the pick of the yard first up at big odds and just missed when looked home with 100m to go but the tough run into the wind told on him. First time down the straight an issue but he will be there for a long way with the right tempo.
9. Esperance: Smashed his rivals first up at Echuca before taking a 2 length win from a few nice types last start at Sandown. Being trained onto 1600m for the Guineas so sits in the Catchy bank of horses that veryt well might just be set for later things.
10. Limestone: Given no chance with the ride first up and a return to Flemington is a big positive today. Best form is good enough and this bloke looks an out and out sprinter. Stable keen.
11. Booker: 3-wide no cover the trip last start at Caulfield and just beaten 0.2L by Merchant Navy late. Clearly a strong run and while the horse would be expected to head to the Guineas from here, this is the testing material at the distance. Has won down the straight.
Comments: Wide open race. Limestone and Summer Passage look the most suited here of the runners most likely staying at the 1200m today at odds. Jukebox is the one to beat of those down in the prices.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Summer Passage and Limestone.
Flemington Race 6 – 1400m – Let’s Elope Stakes
Expected tempo: Above average to Strong
1. I Am a Star: Ran nicely enough first up before a poor run off the speed at the Memsie. Can improve back to Flemington today and has to be respected here. Maps perfectly.
2. Serenely Discreet: Two ruins this prep and well beaten on both occasions. Looks outclassed here.
3. Oregon’s Day: Ran well first up and scored last start at Caulfield. Swampland beats her on the day if gets the right run but still can’t fault Oregon’s Day with 2.2L to 3rd. Looks well in here apart from the barrier.
5. Jennifer Lynn: Huge run first up when held up for runs in the Savanna Amour race beaten 1.9L. Wasn’t anywhere near top fitness and will have come on loads since. Big chance and great barrier.
6. Flying Jess: Strong first up showing from out back storming home and just missing. MM 3YO Guineas winner for a reason beating Global Glamour. Up to 1400m ideal and looks well in here from barrier 8.
7. Sword of Light: Looked perfect in the yard last start and ran wide no cover from the 600m and was a good 5th. Has to imporve again to feature here.
8. Exocet: Two lead in trials including a winning one. Ended last prep with a Guineas win at Wagga and then a Listed win at Morphetville both over further than this. Up against it at distance but C Williams onboard for a reason. Bad barrier.
9. Risque: Two poor runs in a row this prep after a lameness issue. Stays at 1400m and goes well at track.
10. Schism: Good run last start with 57kg when didn’t look great in the yard at all. Can improve onwards from that run but will certainly be tough to lead all the way here.
11. Swampland: Three wins in a row and then last start just missed when flew home too late as Symons didn’t get out in time. Should have won. Good barrier today… will be getting back and running on well again.
12. Smart as you Think: Nice enough run first up but beaten 56L. Up to 1400m ideal but best seen over 2000m.
13. Happy Hannah: First up today for Hayes stable. Looks well placed here for a horse that can run well in this grade. Win wouldn’t shock.
14. Give Us a Go: Huge run last start in easier grade when should have been winning. This is a step up but this horse is proven at this distance and course. Respect.
15. Let Her Rip: G3 winner from back in NZ over 1400m on heavy. Best seen on wetter surfaces.
16. Lovani: Freshened up and failed with thumps at Moonee Valley. Looks a very good type based on the win over Jaminzah at course over 1600m. 1400m is the query.
17. Written Era: Flew home last start at Caulfield but found a few too good. Well in here if gets a run but will be a load way back looking for runs.
Comments: Wide open race. Jennifer Lynn and Flying Jess are the big chances at odds while Swampland, I Am a Star and Oregon’s Day all have to be respected here.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6, 11, 13, 14
Strategy: Small bets at odds Jennifer Lynn and Flying Jess.
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – PFD Food Services Makybe Diva Stakes
Expected tempo: Average to above average
1. Hartnell: Sensational easy win first up over 1400m when streeted a very good field with top weight + 1kg. Well in here from the barrier expected to get a 1 out 2 back position or so at worst in run. Clearly the horse to beat and loves any track conditions.
2. Black Heart Bart: Not suited by the rain coming throughout the week but it should clear up enough to be no worse than a Soft 5. Clearly has to improve on past two runs and has never won at track.
3. Le Romain: Well beaten last start in the Memsie and strangely up to 1600m instead of down to 1200m here. Not going as well as last prep and needs to improve.
4. Tavago: First up today after winning a G3 last prep. Back to dryer tracks… but best is over much further.
5. Gailo Chop: Very average first up 3-wide no cover behind Hartnell but then got the win well back in class at Morphetville last start. Huge step up here.
6. Humidor: Two runs this prep over 1400m and well beaten on both occasions. People keep talking up the runs and while the horse has gone well enough over 1600m in the past, he clearly needs 2000m+.
7. Ventura Storm: Strong run from the back first up and was galloped on also. Back to 1600m a query here but wanting to run the horse in truly strong races. Best is over 2400m+.
8. Jon Snow: Strong run first up on speed in the Memsie off a hot tempo. Needs further than 1600m but will run a bold race again.
9. Hey Doc: Well beaten last start in the Memsie when ran a respectable 4th. Has to improve up in distance again to beat this lot.
10. Inference: Poor first up over 1400m in G2 company well beaten 6th. Had a trial between runs and need to improve again to place.
11. Seabruge: Really poor run first up in the Memsie. Up to 1600m more suited today but even so has to improve. Struggle to suggest.
12. Single Gaze: Well beaten in the Memsie and not surprised. Place looks out of it. Needs 2000m+ for best.
Comments: Hartnell is clearly the best horse in this race over 1600m. I really feel Le Romain isn’t well suited over the 1600m here and Black Heart Bart finds his best on a Good 3 surface and has never won at track. Of the other outsiders Hey Doc has a lot to prove along with Humidor at this distance. All signs point to Hartnell heading towards the Caulfield Cup.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1
Strategy: Hartnell – 10 units @ $1.90 to win
Flemington Race 8 – 2500m – Japan Racing Association Trophy
Expected tempo: Above average
1. Almandin: Won his last 4 races over 2200m in a row including the Melbourne Cup. First up run was very solid with top weight and comes into this again with 61kg. Giving a load of runners here 6-7kg which is the only significant negative. Is he really 7kg better than Hans Holbein and Crocodile Rock from the same yard? We will see!
2. Bondi Beach: Out and out stayer that ran very well the prep a year ago with a 3rd and 3rd in G3 company over in England with an unlucky run first up when should have gone close. Only 13th in the Melb Cup was disappointing. First up saddle slipped when coming into the race no cover first up over 2000m and will have come on for the run. Up in weights only issue again.
3. Killarney Kid: Well up in the weights again today but well deserved. Covered 8M more than the winner last week and 18m more than 2nd at Moonee Valley with a huge run from out the back. Will save a load more ground and have a full 500m straight to grind down the winners. Good enough but huge query at the distance… but off the Hurdle trial I feel he is more than good enough.
4. Aloft: Strong win first up in easier grade than this and goes up to 2500m today. G2 2nd last prep on heavy behind Big Duke and has won up to over 3200m in the past so we know he will go fine at the distance. Looks okay in at weights.
6. Hans Holbein: Horrible run last start out the back and just didn’t run on as good as others. On past two runs I have to take him on here.
7. Loresho: Fairly beaten in much easier grade last start off a slow tempo. Will run well if they run them along here which is expected and likes this distance. Would be surprised with a win over these types but has been going well.
8. Swacadelic: Hasn’t shown anything yet this prep and best is over even further than this.
9. Cismontane: Led them around a crawl last start at Moonee Valley and got the win. Won’t get that today and will be outmatched here in what is a tough ask.
10. Charlevoix: Crazy big jump in class for Charlevoix. Had horror runs the past two starts and is still a bit below peak based on not getting runs. Good weight and barrier but hard to trust.
11. Super Haze: Massive run last start out the back and found the line strongly covering extra ground at Moonee Valley. Ok barrier to sit midfield and run well here.
12. Yogi: Massive jump in class and looks outclassed to my eye. Barrier 5 so be interesting to see how they ride him… but would expect him to be out the back running on.
13. Crocodile Rock: Two starts for two seconds this prep. Was run down late at Sandown last start in a hugely disappointing performance and while he is good enough to win here, it’s hard to back him.
15. Granddukeoftuscany: Will lead them around today and push the tempo out front. On two back run can go well but hard to suggest at this top grade.
Comments: Potentially the hardest race of the day. Almandin does look under the odds but the history of the horse suggests he will go close. Killarney Kid on the short backup is well in here and should appreciate the extra distance. Aloft should run a brave race from on speed again while Super Haze could surprise at odds also.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Strategy: Back Killarney Kid and Aloft
Flemington Race 9 – 1700m – Softitel Girls’ Day Out Handicap
Expected tempo: Below average to average
1. Amovatio: Ignore run last start at Caulfield when they went around too slow. Previous two starts very good off hot tempos. Will they run it along that fast today though?
2. Annus Mirabilis: First up off a long spell. G2 winner over 3200m last prep. Needs further.
3. Amelie’s Star: Ran home well last start from out the back at Caulfield chasing home the winner who led them around. Was a very strong return to form race and will only improve again here.
4. Big Memory: Never won first up and only once at track. Best runs over further.
5. Extra Zero: Needs the speed on to finish off in the finish normally and I don’t see it on here. That being said, past few runs have been good enough to contest here.
6. Berisha: Two horrible runs this prep. Well up in distance but really hard to suggest.
7. Hardham: Quality horse. Held up for runs first up when nicely 7th behind Grande Rosso. Going the right way and 1700m is ideal. Maps forward enough to figure.
8. Centre Pivot: 5 runs this prep and hasn’t gotten closer than 1.7L or 3rd. Stays in similar grade but comes down to Melbourne. Doesn’t look easier for mine.
9. Nozomi: 61kg first up winner at course over 1400m before well beaten over 1500m in this grade at Moonee Valley. Step up required but clearly loves this track and gets the right barrier draw.
10. Cool Chap: Fair run first up when made late ground to lose 1.2L behind Grande Rosso in a form race. Poor barrier hurts chances for a very good spot in run so will need a bit of luck.
11. Gallic Chieftain: Doesn’t have the best record first up or below 2000m in the past two preps. Will very much need the run today and will look likely at some stage but I feel won’t have the fitness to win.
12. Jacquinot Bay: Brave run 4th last start over 1600m at Moonee Valley and this is a very quick backup. Likely flat today off such a hard run is the issue.
13. Mihany: Strong run 2nd last start at Moonee Valley when got all the favours. Up to 1700m suitable and back to Flemington where has has won twice also. That being said, would need to get away with murder out front.
14. Tarquin: Horrible run first up over 1400m. Never placed at track or distance and really is coming off a terrible run. Couldn’t have.
15. Lord Vasn Percy: Terrible run first up over 1500m. Got up over 3200m last prep. Never won 2nd up and never won at distance with best over 2400m+.
16. Red Alto: Good win first up but failed to get close the next two starts in harder company. This is a similar grade of race and he has to find a length or two.
Comments: Wide open race but only four main chances on my numbers. Hardham and Cool Chap map to have the best runs in the race while Amelie’s Star is clearly the one to beat.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 7, 10, 13
Strategy: Back Hardham and Cool Chap.
