Horse Racing Form for Flemington on 13 June 2015
Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on 13 June 2015. One of the most average Saturday cards i can remember all year down in Melbourne with the main bets all out of the way by the 5th race! I do think the 9th is worth a play as well but you will see that in my write-up. I’ll be posting my thoughts from around the other states on Twitter for those interested as i always do. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 1 El Greco to win
First in best dressed. They are betting $3.00 on Betfair at the time of writing and i can’t imagine they will be taking higher than $2.30 at the start of the race. Very strong run 2nd to a top class horse last start and has the runs on the board against a lot that has everything to prove. Looks very well in today and i’m quite keen considering it’s 2YO race! Had my eye on this one.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Raced 4 Tuscan Fire Each-Way
Here he goes again i can hear you saying. Not only do i think Tuscan Fire can win, my ratings have the horse single figure odds when clearly $20+ is being bet right now. Ignore the Heavy or Hurdles form and look how well weighted against Crafty Cruiser Tuscan Fire is today and you will agree that Tall Ship or Taiyoo would be odds on favourites to smash this field with 62kg a piece on their back. Betting strategy of 2.5 units to place to 1.5 units to win seems the most appropriate play.
Melbourne Best Value
Flemington Race 3 Fast Approaching Each-Way
I’m in a forgiving mood today and this horse fits all my criteria. Expect to see Fast Approaching leading this one our today and i’m very happy to ignore the fact the horse went around last start. The run previous is more than enough to rate a winning chance today and at more than $20s on offer, i’m willing to be on the Each-Way for a nice amount today hoping for a return to peak ratings.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 6, 7, 9, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 10, 15, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 11, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
El Greco: Won nicely first up at Kilmore and then ran very well no disgrace 2nd when well backed behind Prince of Brooklyn who looks to be a very very good type and is already a G3 winner. Have to respect over the 1400m from the barrier 1 draw.
Old Trieste: Had every chance the last two runs but not good enough, couldn’t even go closer than 3L. Can improve and could place.
Automatic Choice: Horrible when running dead last first prep over 900m. Went around at the bool last start a $70 shot and won by nearly 3 lengths with a low weight. Much harder here today and up 4.5kg the key reasons to not be on today.
Flying Geepee: Ran okay enough first prep when 3rd at Sale in 2Yo class. First up run this prep had every possible when just missed in a maiden. Others preferred.
Makatiti: Did alot wrong first up and then last start in a maiden ran well enough to suggest he has potential taking the step up in distance. Will be out the back even from the positive barrier based on previous two runs.
Alamonteel: Ran nicely enough first up when 0.5L 3rd. Backed into favourite in a average quality maiden outside of grade last start and won well. Much harder this one today.
Barachino: Did alot wrong first up, very green. Longer distance and longer straight on breeding should suit but struggle to suggest the improvement on what we saw there.
Recalcitrata: Only run to date found nothing when asked for it from out the back. Freedman wouldn’t be bringing him here if he didn’t think the horse had potential though up the 300m today.
Look At Me Now: Moody runner well beaten by the favoured El Greco by 6L first up. 2.3L 7th last start in a maiden also.. hard to suggest.
Comments: El Greco has shown me more than enough this prep to appreciate his quality in both engagements to date. Deserves the top weight and based on those runs i have him rated significantly shorter against this lot. Only a sudden improvement with the jump in distance would see him beat today on my ratings. $3.00 available at time of writing. Would bet down to $2.10.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: El Greco to win
Flemington Race 2
Siegestor: Went around as 2nd favourite last start at course over 1700m in harder company but only managed 7th. Back up to 62kg and previous two runs he couldn’t get close with it. Did win with 59.5kg the previous start though. Hard horse to catch on recent runs.
Tenacitus: Switch to Weir stable and come down from Sydney. Last win was 2 years ago and best runs since over further than this. Never won at distance either. Happy to take on.
Soaked: Not the worst runs the last two starts over slightly further all at Cranbourne. This is a bit harder form wise today but have to respect his consistency.
Benchi Pegasus: Very poor his last two runs but previous two to that were good runs. Hard to know if he will turn it around today or not. Been $11/$12 the last four runs interestingly.
Bon Rocket: Ran very well last start at Bendigo when 0.3L 3rd to Sir Mask. Was a huge improvement on previous two runs. Up to 1400m today a positive but has failed to make the grade all 3 runs at this course (not disgraced). Barrier the key to the good run today. Has a chance.
Excitement: Won two in a row, 3 of last 4. Jumps heavily in grade and comes into this with 59.5kg. Hard to say a bad word about winning form, but barrier 19 certainly doesn’t help his chances, nor does the jockey engaged.
Making Mayhem: Beat Profit Share last prep and then ran 3rd to Madam Gangster. Hard to dismiss those form lines, but first up he showed absolutely nothing at Seymour over 1200m. Not sure how to rate him here, you can’t back him yet if you have a confident bet in the race, i feel you have to saver bet him based alone on his very top ratings.
Red Spyder: Very good horse on it’s day. As a 3YO was contesting the higher rated races (not group – just listed). First up run showed enough to suggest he was in for a very good prep. Looks a key chance and from the barrier should be handy enough to the speed. Key chance.
Mick’s Hustler: Slow away and out the back last start at Seymour. Slow time race and still just missed. Won previous and too far back missing start the previous to that. Can miss it at Flemington and still be a good chance. Respect the class.
One Inch Punch: Beaten as favourite last start at Bendigo when ran okay but couldn’t get close for the win. Harder here and equal weights. Has to improve.
Topkapi: Decent type but well beaten first up 2nd 4.8L to I’m ABlaze. Has to find much much more with the step up in distance.
Gold Cufflinks: Ran well two back and then got the win last start very well. Much harder here today and needs to find even more again today. Needs the pace on.
Mihany: Way back in class last start reversed the form from out the front on the synthetic… much harder this one and poor barrier.
Clemo: Got the win last start in a similar class of race from midfield. Was a decent run and has to be respected.
Bradman: Doesn’t win out of turn and have to say this looks beyond his class.
So Does He: Had every chance last start at Pakenham and simply just not good enough. Cat.
Comments: Hard race and many chances. Red Spyder the clear top pick from Mick’s Hustler but there is a good 7-8 horses that can actually win.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Red Spyder E/W
Flemington Race 3
Fast Approaching: Did alot wrong last start at Moonee Valley and had nothing to give late. Just ignore that run and rate on previous three runs for wins including a 3YOF win at Caulfield over this distance. Respect and if the rail is hot, a big chance.
Northroza: Very well backed first up on the back of a decent first prep (not overly impressive IMO) and is going around as one of the best backed horses and tipped horses of the day. Up to 59kg (up 4.5kg) compared to Fast Approaching up 2kg from her 3YOF run at Caulfield two back. New jockey also after Oliver hospital stay? Good horse, no question, but the price looks very short all things considered.
Zerprise Journey: Won 3 of last 4 races this prep going through the grades. Won last start in this grade at Morphetville from the back and the sectionals were solid. Can run well.
A Lotta Love: Ran 4th to Fontein Ruby 4 runs back and 4th to Anaphora two runs back both in 3F-LR and 3YOF company. Won last start on a wetter track at Sale and suited by this distance. Has ability.
Kaizaen: First up last start at Flemington. Looked to have every chance, but does obviously look to be wanting more distance which she gets today. 1 from 1 2nd up.
Violent Snow: Ridden incorrectly two runs back at Flemington cost her any chance. Last start at Caulfield went to the back and ran home off a fast tempo and just missed. Has the ability and should be ridden colder today. Can win.
Oak Park Goblet: Did alot wrong over-racing the whole way last start at Moonee Valley. Winner of that race wasn’t anything special either. Hard to back on the past two runs.
Go Jennio: Very disappointing last start at MV. Showed nothing. Ran nicely enough the previous two runs but need to find much more today even at the weights.
Azeema: Looked to have every chance last start at Sale considering the times run. Happy to bet around her here on ratings.
Cinnamon Carter: Most likely just here for the run? Clearly needs further on past runs.
Manageress: Happy to take this filly on based on two runs to date. Can place at best, can’t win for mine.
Bonnie Belle: Horrible first up run in Aus. Needs further on past but happy to take on.
Champagne Cocktail: Two runs to day and hasn’t been able to win a maiden. Not sure about this nomination.
Comments: I’m sorry but I can’t see how Northroza is a good bet at the price. Every man and his dog is tipping her up here today but at $2.40, i’m happy to take her on here. Fast Approaching is massive value today here if she can return to the form we last two and three runs back. Violent Snow also has the ratings to win this if the speed is on.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Fast Approaching E/W
Flemington Race 4
Crafty Cruiser: Unlucky 2nd two back behind Sonntag at course over 2800m. Last start fairly well beaten from too far back behind La Amistad. Has been putting runs together this prep but is hard to catch. Has the ratings but not sure i could be on him again today.
Cooldini: Not the worst run ever when put on pace last start at Flemington. Step up to 2500m helps and last win was over 2600m at course in similar company… but was last start good enough? I don’t think so.
Gotta Take Care: Hasn’t shown a good enough run this prep to suggest he can win this. Happy to take him on, but do watch to see if they back him late.
Tuscan Fire: Two hurdle runs and they have finally pulled the pin.. Tuscan isn’t a 3200m horse, we all know it, they obviously don’t… also better on dryer than the heavys. 0.1L 2nd to Tall Ship on record 4 runs back is good enough to go close here today… finds himself 3.5kg better off against Crafty Cruiser today for run 5 back also. Comes in well enough.
Black Jag: Sat on the speed last start at MV and almost stole the win. Very good run all the way. Up in class today an issue for a horse that has never won in this class or over this distance… but should run well.
Kareeming: Won 3 in a row going through the grades… up in class and up 1kg.. 3.5kg worse off today against Black Jag also. Hard to see the 4th in a row against this lot today.
De Little Engine: Very good run first up and then last start finished off nicely enough from on speed. The issue for mine is that i thought he had every chance and he just didn’t match it with Kenjorwood or Magicool when it counted. The up in distance is certainly key, but he has never won in this class previously is a concern.
Stable Star: Massive win last start on the heavy to win the cup after winning the Casterton Cup.. Practiced finished well behind him and won midweek at Flemington since. Dry track the key issue today for him.
Lady Cumquat: Weighted much better today after a fair enough run 3rd at MV… but big concern is had every possible in the running and still got out muscled by 2 others that she meets again here. Never placed at this track from 3 runs to date.
You Think So: Shown nothing the two runs to date. Can’t have on either of those runs at the weights.
Prince Kilkarlen: BM-70 2nd up to this today.. last win in R-58. No thanks.
Comments: I can’t believe De Little Engine, a horse yet to win in this grade, 3rd run in off an ‘average’ at best run, and recorded his peak performance with a elevated cobalt reading, is favourite in this race. In fact, I think the market is incorrectly rating De Little Engine as well as the other up and comers in lady Cumquat and Kareeming. All the form and value points me to an old mate in Tuscan Fire. There doesn’t look to be an overly harsh tempo which will suit Tuscan Fire perfectly positioned on speed… the form lines recently don’t tell you all you need to know. Junk the two runs over hurdles (the horse doesn’t stay 3200m imo) and remove the heavy track run. We are left with a 0.2L 2nd, 3L 3rd, 1L 3rd all to Taiyoo over 2400-2500m, a 0.1L defeat to Tall Ship over 2150m and a 2.5L defeat to Crafty Cruiser who he meets 3.5kg better off today. The key from that run behind Crafty Cruiser was the fact Tuscan Fire led… that won’t occur today, he will settle just off the speed or outside the leader and get a comfortable run. I’m convinced the horse rates as a single figure odds chance here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Tuscan Fire 2.5 units to place 1.5 units to win.
Flemington Race 5
Pago Rock: Two runs down the straight this prep and both were no disgrace at all behind Lumosty both runs. Have to respect again.
Anatina: Won 2 from 4 first up runs and won 2 from 4 at track down the straight. 0.2L 2nd in Group 1 two preps back but failed to win as favourite both runs last prep. Hard to suggest she isn’t the real deal with wins over horses such as Chloe in Paris and Gregers on record.
Hard Romp: Huge win first up down the straight but then last start out the front exposed only managed 3rd when Lumosty went close to track record. Up to 58.5kg also today 3kg worse off against Pago Rock is a big issue considering Pago Rock beat him home.
Mr Make Believe: 6 runs at track for 0 placings (4th 1L last prep). Getting older now this bloke and just 2 wins from 7 first up… not terrible but hasn’t won since 2013 over Zedi Knight! Happy to take on.
Play Master: Ran very well behind Got the Gosst wo back and then secured the win at Caulfield beating Angels Beach mainly due to weights if i’m honest. Weighted okay here today compared to three runs back, but still this is much harder and well up in weights today.
About Square: Not the worst last prep and previous prepp won in Open class. Has ability to run well if at best, but struggle to suggest the win here.
Nadeem Lass: 2.5L 3rd to Hazard no disgrace last start considering Hazard came out and beat Catkins last weekend up in Queensland. Back to 1100m an interesting move but does go well enough at the track and has been in top form as of late including a win in Mares grade. Have to respect.
Klishina: Got a very good run last start but was blocked at critical times which cost her most of her chance first up. Goes nicely down the straight based on last prep run and has ability…. but will she measure up to this grade today? Weighted well enough to be a chance.
Trevinder: Best weighted horse in race coming out of the Play Master race. Got Tounge over Bit last start at Caulfield when heavily backed in. Will be out the front hitting the line strongly today. Only run at track didn’t place… consistent type though and have to respect at weights.
Stereosonic: Won 3 from 4 first up in the past… but 21 runs to date and first throw at the stumps in this grade. Struggle to see the win at this distance and course.
Senor Juez: Couldn’t win a R-58 last start.
Comments: Tricky dicky race. Pago Rock is the right price today to be betting on the each-way. His ratings suggest he will go very well in this grade today at the weights. Anatina is the obvious favourite based on previous runs in previous preps, but concerning that last prep she couldn’t find a win and had breathing issues to finish her prep. Nadeem Lass looks to have the class to measure up today but is 1100m her best distance? Trevinder is weighted to win this if he can produce a good enough run, but is he classy enough?
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back Anatina to win. Smaller bet Pago Rock.
Flemington Race 6
Risen From Doubt: Two runs this prep and has finished last and 2nd last. Dryer track today may be the key to success for this bloke? McEvoy isn’t travelling him for the fun of it. Have to respect his previous preps.
Husson Eagle: Very good type. Won first up over 1000m in a race that suited but last start way too far back at Morphetville to ever be a chance.. rattled home for 4th. Looks a good chance and back to the straight is ideal.. but is yet to win down the straight also worth noting.
Rough Justice: Nice enough first up run 2nd at Mornington. Has run well 2nd at course and distance in the past behind Risen From Doubt. Need to improve significantly on first up run though.
Reigning Meteor: Good return to form first up with a nice win at the bool in BM-70 grade. Fair enough down the straight last prep and has ability.
Stingray: Hard horse to catch. Promised the world over 1100m-1200m two preps back but didn’t fulfil the promise. Last prep couldn’t get a win in much eaiser. Struggle to suggest.
Forgive and Forget: Not the easiest horse to catch or get over the line. Nice enough run 2nd to Our Harmony two back and then won well at Geelong last start. Much harder here though but did run well 4th to Husson Eagle four back. Has won at track.
Illustrious Lad: Two wins in a row and then went into last start with some good form and ran a very valid 0.5L 4th to Durendal who then franked the form up in QLD. Certainly a length or more below Durendal on the ratings, but comes into this run today down 1.5kg and the writing is on the wall.
Pink Perfection: Progressed well last prep and recorded a win over Nicomorae at this distance and course. Need to take the next step to measure up today but looks to have the ability.
Sang Choi Bao: Last two runs too poor to be backing him here today but worth noting his peak is good enough to go well here.
Snappy Esprit: Very strong maiden win and then recorded a nice win at Bendigo before the spell beating Bella Capri. 1.5kg worse off today against Bella Capri an issue though considering Bella has gone on with that form.
Bella Capri: Running consistently well down the straight. Last two runs had a lot of merit but just can’t find a way to place or win. Back to 1000m looks ideal
Star Stealer: Two wins first prep then went for a spell. This looks much harder, but have to respect the class.
Turf Crusher: 3YO winner last prep over in Adelaide before failing against Hong Kong Captain and a few others. Could run a very nice race but has to rate higher than seen to date.
Cashed: Nice run and win last start at Morphetville over I Am The General. Up in class but only down 1kg a concern against this lot. Has to improve.
Dezannam: Couldn’t win a maiden is concerning.
Comments: Safe to say we aren’t diving into this one with a best bet. Very tricky race on paper. Husson Eagle deserves to be favourite but $3.80 doesn’t put up much value and i can’t take the price, yet i can’t tip anywhere else. Risen from Doubt on best ratings can win and is a close 2nd pick.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 12
Strategy: Husson Eagle to win. Smaller bet Risen from Doubt.
Flemington Race 7
Warrior King: Won well first up at Geelong and then continued on with it two back at the bool winning from well back. Up to 3YO class as favourite last start raced greenly and from worse than midfield ran home well for 0.8L 5th. Up to 2000m a question for the horse but has taken every distance increase in his stride so i don’t see an issue with it today. Will be a long way back in run.
Golden Oldies: Recorded a 10 length victory three back at Ararat in R-58 class…. failed in 3YO two back but then last start won a BM-64.. key is a wetter track for this guy it looks.
Heavy: Landed some big bets two back at the bool with a strong win. Then went up to Randwick where he was slowly away and out the back and came home well but was never really a chance after the start. Best runs been on wetter tracks than this one today.
Hadda Couple: Won two in a row after securing a maiden then CL2… much harder this one though and much dryer tracks. Did run 2nd in 3YO class last prep on a good track so no issue but first start over this distance an issue also.
Purreal: Blocked for a run last start and unlucky not to be fighting out the finish. Progressing through the grades and step back to 3YO class from open class is key for this runner today. Rates well.
Berserk: Very close 2nd last start to Unfurl over 2000m and rates very well today from the Freedman yard. Have to respect his class and beat East Afrika in a maiden who won recently in a good race also. Respect top chance in race.
Temps Voleur: Shown nothing every run this prep so the distance increase a massive concern for a 1000m winner!
Piran: Sat midfield last start at Seymour, got going early and went bang. Clearly looking for 2000m on what i saw last start and also won maiden by 6L over 2000m. Barrier 2 key to having every chance.. up in class but looks good enough.
Quedoutes: Strong run last start 2.3L 7th from the back behind Thermogenic. Up 4.5kg today but way back in class. Respect his ability.
St Cajetan: Hard to rate his chances today based on last two runs. Take on.
Blackjack Bella: Two back run wasn’t good enough to win this. Last start on wetter track got the win but didn’t beat much. Hard to see the improvement for mine.
Sebring Warrior: Continues to run well and looking for the distance. 3YO-F x2 races and weighted nicely again today back in class. Looks a good chance.
Loveheart Lass: No doubting her ability, but did she really see out the 2000m on a good track two runs back? Big questions for mine and think Sebring Warrior’s run last start was better than hers.
Boogiedayz: Last win was in a R-58 and failed last start in BM-70… Freedman stable but even this would be a minor miracle.
Sistine Star: Close but nope couldn’t win last start at Pakenham beaten by a cat in It’s One. Poor barrier and unproven at distance.
Trouper’s Mill: maiden only winner and well beaten last start in BM-64. Struggle to suggest.
Skyfire: Hasn’t won since getting a maiden and couldn’t place last two starts in bm-64. Safe to take on.
Rock Caiseal: Maiden only winner then well beaten last two starts. No thanks from me with barrier 20 also.
Astrolabe: Snuck an okay maiden three back but since then been well outclassed. No thanks.
Comments: Not sure how this made it into being a Quaddie leg, not the best betting race you will ever see. A bit of guess work required that’s for sure.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 6, 7, 9, 13
Strategy: Berserk to win. Smaller bet Purreal.
Flemington Race 8
Tried and Tired: He tried but tired late last start with the 60kg…. same weight again today and barrier 15 will be doing a load of work to get over. On best runs (including a 1.8L defeat of Lord of the Sky), you have to believe he is a chance, but the last two runs have been average at best.
Mr Utopia: Very good win last start from out the back at course and distance. Up 3kg today an issue from the very wide barrier, expect him to be out the back and coming hard late. Has the ability to win.
Good Value: Actually ran quite well at big odds last start for 4th behind Lumosty. Sets him up very well coming into this race today. Up in weight but no issue going up to the 1400m for mine. Sit closer to the speed today and you could see him win this one quite well with a repeat of peak last prep.
Hosting: Missed the start and was just too far back to win last start. Barrier 1 so has to jump well or his chances are done again today. Weighted much better today also but has to still improve and do alot right to win. Has the ability… never won 7 tries at track.
Decircles: Impossible to know how this guy will ever run. Turns up then shows nothing then turns up. Take on.
Self Sense: 2000m back to 1600m last start and back to 1400m today is very strange progression for this guy who was measuring up in listed company up in Sydney. Found nothing last start at Caulfield. Hard to have here.
Chile Express: Last two runs have been good at course and distance. Much better weighted today and has the ability to run well. Minor chance.
Freshwater Storm: Never won at track… best runs at Caulfield in the past. First up run was good enough to suggest he can run an okay race here but others preferred.
Sino Eagle: Won first up in a poorly rated race and failed the next two starts to go close. Happy to take her on here again today.
He or She: Massive jump up in class today for this very well prep bloke. Move to Hayes yard ideal and you would expect he has gotten the best out of him in training. He wasn’t having to beat much last prep in the minimum rating races over at Ascot, but he was beating every horse put up against him, to the point where the races started to have a maximum of 8 nominations, had them running scared. He looks the real deal. The issue is that the stable have suggested the horse may need the run today and will be ridden out the back from the wide barrier.
Dig A Pony: Been a long time since she won at course in 3YOF class. Since then failed to make an impression. Have to take on based on previous runs. Best seen on softer track.
Future Solution: Hard to see the win from this bloke after his last two runs over 1400m. Pass.
Academy Jack: Snuck the win last start at Moonee Valley. Much harder race here today back up in class and it top him going back down to a BM-78 to break through. Others preferred.
Tiny’s Legacy: Very good win at Sale last start on the soft track. I respect this horse but feel his best runs have all come on a course with sting out, and that won’t occur today at Flemington. Wide barrier a massive turn off also.
Sir Andrew: Speed ratings special last start at course and distance when jumped poorly out the back and ran home very well for 2nd in a front runner dominated race. 3Y-GP2 winner over in NZ for a reason.
Yesterday’s Song: Looked to never be in the race last start at Morphetville over-racing and then having Respiratory Issues. Clearly has talent but hard to back knowing how far back he will be with those issues to overcome.
Comments: Convinced He or She is the real deal and horse with the highest potential in this race. Have to stick with the horse here first up at the juicy price.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 10, 15, 16
Strategy: He or She to win.
Flemington Race 9
Commanding Time: Not the worst run second up at course and distance in similar class.. but will need to find another gear to be winning today.
Tristram’s Sun: Rather disappointing run last start at Moonee Valley when times suggest he had every possible chance. 60kg today back in class does look more favourable from 59.5kg last start. Two back run rated well enough to win this.
Longeron: Very strong win last start at course and distance when beating home Pyrrolic. Previous run 2nd to Kenjorwood and previous run 2nd to The Bowler. Very consistent form and looks to be hard to beat today.
Honourable Aussie: Running some very honourable races but didn’t find anywhere near enough last start to suggest a win is on the way today.
River’s Lane: They keep betting massive overs on this bloke. Last win was $350-1 at course and distance in this grade. Previous tow runs over in Adelaide he went close 2nd and close 3rd just missing on both. The longer straight suits him and a good track also is ideal from barrier 2. Big chance.
Orion: Won two in a row now. Jessy Belle failed since that race is a slight query to the form, but up 4kg today looks reasonable. Giving 5kg to Reflugent today is the BIG query based on two back run.
Prizum: Both runs this prep to date have been fine, but nothing to say he is a winning chance on what we have seen. Place at best.
By The Grace: Very nice win last start at Morphetville. Ran well blocked for a run 3rd at Caulfield the run before and down 1.5kg today compared to Orion being up 0.5kg.
Hero Master: Every chance the last 4 runs when could only manage 2nds at best. Hard to have based on the form, needs to improve to win.
Refulgent: Conssitent type and he is very well weighted today against most horses in the race. If he is to get a win, today is clearly the day from barrier 3.
Clairvaux: Well beaten last two runs on wetter tracks against harder company. Two back run would measure up to most grades. Has a small chance.
Smashing Doubt: Very big win last start at Moonee Valley with the 60kg in Bm-70 grade. Much harder here today and dryer ground. Has to improve but has the ability.
Haylaman: Hard to have this horse on any recent form. Last win was 2014 at Cranbourne in BM-78 and form since has been horrid.
Darbadar: Ran home fairly enough from the back last start but change of jockey tells you most you need to know. This is a 3Y-GP2 0.5L 4th placed horse from over in France but that was 2013 and in 2014/2015 hasn’t gone closer than 2.5L 6th.
Darragh: Decent enough win in BM-64 grade last start but this is five steps above that. Pass.
Beneficiary: Every chance the last couple of races. Pass.
Comments: Very happy to take on Orion today at the weights. Top two key chances look to be Refulgent and Longeron while River’s Lane is the obvious value.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 11, 13
Strategy: Longeron to win. Smaller bet River’s Lane.
