Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington on 13 January 2018. The rail stays at the 6m position we ran on New Year’s Day and i’m expecting the track to play fair with 10mm of rain due on Friday to give us a Good 4 track to start the day. I’ll be on track as usual so keep an eye on twitter. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Dollar for Dollar – 5 units @ $3.80. Lite’n in my Veins – 3 units @ $6.00.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Crystal Spirit – 3 units Each-Way $4.60/$1.80
Best Each-Way
Flemington Race 2 – Bondeiger – 1 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$3.30
Other Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Jacquinot Bay – 3 units @ $4.40 to win
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 11, 12, 18
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 6, 8, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – Meadow Mist Plate – 2YOs
1. Fake: Maiden winner and had some of the Sydney stable shine which has started to wear off from the yard. Given no chance last start with the ride but even so was doubtful to win for mine. Has to improve again with training.
2. Al Dorama: FIrst up just beaten 2nd to Graceful Storm and looks a real nice type going forward. Respect him.
3. Jarmanagic: First up. Two runs last prep not bad but couldn’t win. Has to improve.
4. Templar: Held up for runs last start behind the speed runners and only missed 0.7L. Looks a nice type and can improve loads from the yard also. Surprised by a Fiorente sprinter but i guess so.
5. Blue Hope: No public trials. Not well fancied in betting.
6. Phoneme: No public trials. Well backed into $6 and has to be respected.
7. Renzulli: No public trials. $26 runner for a reason? Jockey negative.
8. Train the Brave: No public trials. Good talk about this horse around.
9. Nasaayim: Trial winner for form stable. Leading jockey. Respect.
Comments: Interesting race to start the day, but impossible to bet when we don’t know the form of any trials for most new runners. Nasaayim looks the real deal.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Nasaayim to win
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m – Piping Lane Handicap
1. Howard Be Thy Name: Run of the race last start in the Woodford Cup over 1700m and just beaten 2nd on the day. Up in class here but up to a more appropriate distance. Rawiller goes back on. Maps perfect but gets top weight.
2. Articus: Disappointed last start at course and distance when behind the leaders, hit the lead at the 300m but couldn’t go on with it with such a tempo set out front. No natural leader will see him get a better run and Blinkers on a key for this yard.
3. Second Bullet: Got back and ran on okay enough without going close last start. Clearly out stayed on the day and is better suited to a slower pace run throughout.
4. Golden Mane: Strong win last start at Flemington coming off a decent run over 1700m. Was suited by strong tempo, may not have it all his way today though. 51kg the obvious key here though with Hopes claim.
5. Pretty Punk: Adelaide invader who won well enough as a very short priced favourite last start. Ran home well off a slow pace but obviously has to improve here.
6. Bondeiger: Presented a treat in the yard last start but wasn’t suited by the pace set out front. Stays at 2000m and goes well at Flemington, If he can get them to run on he is a massive chance.
Comments: Weir is an absolute genius and I can see him injecting some speed into this race for his runners which will suit Bondeiger to come over the top late. Looks a very good E/W bet for mine.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Bondeiger – 1 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$3.30
Flemington Race 3 – 1700m – Seascay Handicap
1. Master of Arts: First up over the unsuitable 1700m ran ok but not great. Needs further for mine and i’d be shocked at distance.
2. Sayed: Two trials on lead in up north. Obviously goes well and best in past has been over slightly further and very best on wetter.
3. Jacquinot Bay: Very well backed last start at Caulfield. Got too far back and fairly beaten 2nd behind Payroll. No Payroll to beat here… now or never?
4. Sadler’s Lake: Ran horrible last start behind Jac Bay and a few others. They keep persisting. Keeps looking great.
5. The Chairman: Solid first up run over the 1400m when just stuck on. Up in distance here and goes much better second up and at Flemington. Respect enough.
6. Velox: Two runs this prep. Last start on speed when they crawled around and couldn’t out sprint them with 5kg more. Be interesting how he handles more speed on here.
7. Burrum’s Buzz: Led throughout as favourite last start in Adelaide and just crawlled around. Was going to be hard to run down. Won’t get away with murder today.
8. Electric Fusion: Ran horrible last start. While I should probably be forgiving the run, this horse may just need a spell now.
Comments: This is Jacquinot Bay’s race to dominate from out the front. The stable have him going super well and this is his race to lose.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Jacquinot Bay – 3 units @ $4.40 to win
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – Craftsman Handicap – 3YF-70
1. Twitchy Frank: Blinkers on. Perfect on speed ride last start at Sandown and hit lead 200m out but was just claimed late by a better runner on the day. Brown stays on and maps well from inside barrier again.
2. Baduzzi: CL1 winner last start in easy fashion at Mornington first up. Has improvement to come.
3. Shokora: Two wins in a row including a solid win in CL1 class burning home at Sandown. Big step up in grade here though.
4. Tagreeda: BM-64 winner at Sandown 3-wide the trip last start. Was a solid win on the day and expect the horse to go on with it.
5. Bellegano: Blinkers on. 3L 4th behind Light Romance and Twitchty Frank last start. Has to improve.
6. Shalwa: Lightly raced Price runner who was just beaten last start behind Forthefunofit at Cranbourne. Needs to improve.
7. Je Suis Tycoon: Two poor runs in a row but did go ok through the line last start at MV. Up to 1400m potentially ideal but hard to suggest.
8. Seeking Alpha: 3 trials last prep showed talent. Solid first up maiden win. Untapped potential.
9. All of Me: Blinkers on. Disappointed last start at Moonee Valley behind truly Discreet. Has to improve.
10. Pamela Joy: Cranbourne maiden winner on heavy. Big jump up in grade here and on dryer.
11. Zelsignoret: Stable backed her last start but got too far back and ran home okay. Wiliams on.
Comments: This isn’t the classiest field you will see for for a 3YO fillies race. Expecting a few horses to push the tempo here and we should have a truly run race. I can understand the support for Shokora as the horse showed a strong turn of foot last start, but i’m not sure that is how the race will be run here today and a horse like Twitchy Frank and even Bellegano are better suited to the grinding style that will be needed to win.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Twitchy Frank E/W
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – Rain Lover Handicap – 3Y-70
1. Indian Thunder: Ran on well enough last start at Flemington without getting close to a good type in Wise Hero. Steps back in class here and maps well from barrier.
2. Salsamor: Nice type that didn’t win a race last prep but ran 2nd to Showtime over 1600m in G2 company. 3rd in G2 vase to finish prep as well over 2000m. Clearly well back in grade here first up and stable is going well.
3. Muraahib: Huge drifter first up and well beaten in harder. Back in class here and extra distance is key for this horse.
4. Eluded: Two wins in a row in much easier company. Solid enough wins but big jump in grade here.
5. Crystal Spirit: Short backup after flying home last start and just missing behind Sheriff John Stone in harder. Flying right now and 3kg claim has him well in at weights again.
6. Montaser: Just missed behind Kasi Farasi last start. Blinkers off a query. Good barrier.
7. My Money Bags: Failed to see out the 1700m with the way he was ridden last start at Flemington. Previous win at Sandown from on speed in maiden was solid.
8. Star Silk: Geelong 2nd last start behind an ok type. Needs to improve.
9. Many Rewards: Maiden winner last start. Needs to find lengths again.
Comments: Very interesting race on paper. Mr Money Bags looks well suited back to a lesser tempo that should suit over a more appropriate distance while Indian Thunde ris coming off a strong sprint home last start worth following. Salsamor measured up in Group grade last prep and has to be considered a big chance while Montaser ran nice enough times last start also. Muraahib still needs another run for mine. The standout on the week backup with 3kg claimer is Crystal Spirit. Super keen – maps perfectly.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Crystal Spirit – 3 units Each-Way $4.60/$1.80
Flemington Race 6 – 1100m – Bm-70
1. Punt Club: Three runs this prep and has been going ok but not getting close to a win. Last start was best run clearly and stays in that grade here. First time down this straight.
2. Squeaky Squirrel: First time down straight. Ok type never won 2nd up. First up run was ok.
3. I’m Telling Ya: Generally loves Flemington straight but last three runs have been terrible. May be out of form at the moment.
4. Pravro: Huge run and win last start at Caulfield. Can continue on with that form here down the straight. Suited.
5. Bob of the Head: Well backed but couldn’t match it last start with Epic Moment. Big jump here.
6. Sang Choi Bao: Out the back last start as favourite and didn’t find a great deal when asked. Previous win was good. Respect his ability and looks suited back down the straight.
7. Artie Fred: Moe winner two back. Fairly beaten last start at Sandown. Improvement needed.
8. Domesday Warrior: Failed first up after clipping heels early. Probably have to forgive first up. Distance and track query.
9. Search Squad: Ran home nicely enough last start when missed the start.
10. Aurelius Hero: Strong win at Terang last start as favourite. Previous two runs couldn’t get close in BM-64 grade.
11. Believing: Looked a nice type and boxed on well for 5th last start behind El Sicario. Respect at weights.
12. Strykinglee: Four runs this prep. Disappointed last start but the two previous runs were very good. Respect on those runs.
13. Doc’s Hero: Nice enough run first up last start when didn’t look suited and more to come.
14. Wakeel: Gelded. 8YO we haven’t seen since 2014. No.
15. Sir Mask: Hasn’t won in the past 10 runs and first up hard to see it here. Would need to improve.. never placed at distance from 4 runs.
16. Scappare: beaten 4L last start but previous form lines were decent enough.
17. My Survivor: Shock winner at big odds at Mornington in BM-58 last start. Massive step up for this 10YO.
18. Annrhon: Emergency today and ran very well 4th behind Lady Magnus. 3kg claimer and could sit further forward here.
19. O’lonhro Bay: Looks massive outpaced here.
Comments: Tough way to start the Quaddie. Liked what Pravro did last start and have to respect the horse can do it again here.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 11, 12, 18
Strategy: Pravro E/W
Flemington Race 7 – 1400m – Chester Manifold Stakes – Handicap
1. Burning Front: Could not have presented any better in the yard last start but sat just off the speed and failed to see out the strong tempo. Has to improve here and not convinced he can.
2. Gold Symphony: Very nice type for the Snowden yard. Beaten fairly last start but can sit more forward from the barrier if they desire here today. Best when some sting out.
3. Dollar for Dollar: Won four in a row including a Group 3 last start at Sandown over 1500m. Good barrier here and the faster they go the harder he will be to beat.
4. Royal Rapture: Nice type first up. Best over these distances in the past but really acts even better on wetter.
5. Goldstream: Coming back from an injury always hard to perform in this grade first up. Needs further.
6. Chamois Road: Got home well last start but clearly this is another step up in class and step up to 1400m questionable.
7. Lite’n in my Veins: Got back wide no cover last start at Sandown and still flew home behind Ozi Choice. Beat 3rd by 3L. Can do it at the front and back.
8. Double Bluff: Not at these distances. Robbie Laing is off his chops here.
9. Pure Pride: Nice type with a good win at course and distance blowing them away four runs back. Forgive run the next start. Lame the one after and paid the price running the next start. Freshened for 56 days.
10. Kingsguard: Beat home Tom Melbourne last prep at Rosehill. Certainly up to this class and goes well over this distance.
11. Nikitas: Nice enough run 4th at Flemington but fairly beaten. Has to improve again.
12. Upside Rock: I’d be surprised if this horse didn’t finish last.
Comments: Very keen to play here. Dollar for Dollar and Lite’n in My Veins are the two clear standouts. Both horses can do it at both ends and also win if the speed isn’t on. Most importantly, both come in off personal best runs well above anything run by others in this race last start.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 7
Strategy: Dollar for Dollar – 5 units @ $3.80. Lite’n in my Veins – 3 units @ $6.00.
Flemington Race 8 – 1100m – Better Beyond Plate – Handicap
1. Thermal Current: Ran home soundly on a firm surface last start at Caulfield. Continues to present at top in yard. 2kg claim may be key.
2. Princefamous: Strong win last start at Randwick from on speed. First time down the straight the concern.
3. Demonstrate: New stable. Been presenting horrible. Williams on but can’t have off last run.
4. Benz: Looked a very nice type two preps back. Last prep failed only run as favourite.
5. Play Master: Failed to see out the run first up from out back. Much better back down the straight with a run under his belt. Loves a fast speed and will run it out.
6. Diamond Oasis: Ran quite well last start down the Flemington straight. Down to 51kg today and a win doesn’t seem out of reason.
7. Ken’s Dream: Ridden out the back first up at Moonee Valley and given 0 chance. Ran on strongly and looks well suited here. Handles the straight.
8. Mr Individual: First up here. Best over further. Gelded. Low weight. Has won at distance.
9. Invinsible Al: Won first up with luck and then last two starts failed to fire and win. Did have to cover a load of ground last start though. Back to down the straight and well suited down it.
10. Hay Bale: Best runs down the straight. First up a big query for a struggling stable. Take on.
11. Royalic: Nice enough type. Got the runs but beaten by a few better last start. Have to take on.
Comments: Hard race to play into here. Thermal Current will run well and PrinceFamous comes out of a strongly run race. Ken’s Dream could produce anything here while Diamond Oasis ran very well last start and gets in low at the weights.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7
Strategy: Thermal Current E/W
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Tauto Handicap – BM-84 F&M
1. Khutulun: Not the worst run first up. Up in distance here but may need further.
2. Zasorceress: Very plain first up. Needs further than this.
3. Single Note: Three runs this prep and failed to fire on all occasions. Take on.
4. Astara: Four runs this prep. Thornton onboard for 3kg claim. Step up again here.
5. Moonlover: Strong 2nd last start to Life On The Wire and times were great. Repeat of that wins this year with 2kg claimer staying on.
6. Soho Ruby: Flew home last start at Flemington to claim the win in a strongly run race. Nice barrier again today.
7. Gogo Grace: 2nd last start at Gawler. Step up in grade here but going well on two back run.
8. Jester Halo: Nice 2nd last start at top of weights behind Soho Ruby. Have to find a lot here to change the slots they get home.
9. Jester Angel: Not the worst run 6th last start. Others preferred still.
10. Royal Fashion: Got home well for third last start in a strongly run race at Caulfield from on speed. Can run nicely again here.
11. Federosa: Mares BM-70 winner last start and steps up in class and distance. Respect ability and good barrier.
12. Sharing: 3rd behind Soho Ruby last start. Had every possible chance. Others preferred.
13. Diapason: Waller runner that has had enough chances this prep. Not for mine.
14. Facts: Hope runner with 3kg claimer Hope onboard. Failed first up and best in past not good enough.
15. Pearl de Vere: Two wins in a row before 5th last start behind Soho Ruby.
Comments: Moonlover very well placed here from on speed pushing the tempo. Soho Ruby the main danger while Federosa and Jester Halo both go into the Quaddie.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 6, 8, 11
Strategy: Back Moonlover. Saver bet Soho Ruby.
