Welcome to The Profits preview from for Flemington 12 August 2017. We continue for the second week in a row at Flemington coming off another winning weekend. This card looks much harder overall and we are investing less units overall this weekend and betting much shorter overall. We find a bit more confidence as well with less wind on the cards this week. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Sovereign Nation – 5 units @ $2.50 to win
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 – Master Zephyr – 3 units @ $3.50 to win
Best Each-Way
Flemington Race 4 – Riyadh 1.5 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.35
Other Bet
Flemington Race 9 – Rocket Tommy – 1.25 units @ $6.00 to win. Sunday Escape 0.75 units @ $13.00 to win.
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 7, 11, 13, 16
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 8, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 9, 13, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
For those that preview a discussion on form in Video format, you can watch the videos below.
Flemington Race 1 – 1400m – VRC Member Raymond Ali Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Below average to average.
1. Peruggia: Maiden winner at Donald over 1350m two back and then measured up really well at Sandown last start from on speed. Harder here but clearly ability.
2. Confluence: Maiden. Strong run 2nd last start at Caulfield behind Shamport beating home Mulk. Clearly has the ability.
3. Nistaan: Way too short the last start and was really under pressure at the turn first run 1400m. Obviously, needs to improve off that run… does have the ability.
4. Sky Punch: Looks the speed in the race but won’t be pushing them along overly fast. Was a nice enough win at Geelong but has to improve.
5. Mulk: Very good Sandown win two back at Sandown from on speed. Last start went back and took a sit and finished off okay but clearly proved the horse is better on speed and I believe will be ridden accordingly today. Best closing speed in race on record and hard to beat.
6. Regal Embrace: Pakenham synthetic winner after 5 starts. Got the win in average to poor time for mine and has to improve here.
7. Kedleston: Three runs this prep and hasn’t shown very much at all. Struggle to suggest a win.
8. Sheer Madness: Not terrible last start but clearly well-beaten 5th. Has to find lengths.
10. Revlis: Couldn’t win a maiden yet at Mildura. Has to improve.
Comments: Mulk jumps to clear to pick with the scratching of Aljawzaa and looks a big price to start the day.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Mulk to win.
Flemington Race 2 – 2530m – VRC Member Beverley Hogan Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Below Average to Average to Above Average
1. Araldo Junior: Had been threatening to win a race all prep and finally up to 3200m at Sunshine Coast last start on a Good 4 track got the right conditions to get a win. Previous run over 2400m in the Winter Cup 5th behind Gallic chieftain was good enough to consider over this distance, but honestly, I’d want them leading today.
2. Kilimanjaro: Ignore last start when not suited over the unsuitable 2000m by the slow speed and just didn’t have the required turn of foot. If they get an average to above average tempo which I’m expecting Araldo could run them along at out front, he will be perfectly suited and able to show us a run similar to that produced in the Derby trial win back in the UK. Has been advised to be going forward today.
3. Master Zephyr: Going from strength to strength this prep and step up to 2500m will be very suitable with a stronger tempo on the cards. Barrier was the only reason he lost last start and he maps really well here.
4. Super Haze: Dominating win at the course and similar distance last start beating home GrandDukeOfTuscany and Charlevoix. Was by far the best run this prep from the horse letting down super in a solidly run race. Hard to ignore that last run.
5. Crafty Cruiser: Old mate has seen better times and his four runs this prep have seen nothing at all produced to suggest a good run today.
6. Lautaro: Fairly beaten in easier grade the past two starts. Very hard to see him measuring up.
7. Welcome Stryker: Wasn’t a bad run three back at Geelong in much easier and wasn’t bad last start either, but clearly outclassed here. Blinkers on so may try and lead?
8. Tough Vintage: Hurdles type. Couldn’t go close in BM-58 this prep over 2000m.
9. Leica Pegasus: Murdle/Chase horse. Not here.
Comments: Really tough to know how fast they will go out front today with no real natural leader wanting to push the tempo along. The reality of this race is Leica Pegasus, Tough Vintage and Welcome Stryker can’t win. It’s very hard to have Crafty Cruiser or Lautaro on recent runs so it’s a four horse race as the market suggests. Personally, I have to take on Araldo Junior, just don’t think the horse is the same grade as the rest of these. Super Haze isn’t a horse with a very strong turn of foot compared to the rest of this race and the reason he won last start was due to a very strong and confident pace, so today, I have to take him on. Both Master Zephyr and Kilimanjaro are well suited to the speed on offer today, but Master Zephyr looks to be the best suited late in the race on the last few runs.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Master Zephyr – 3 units @ $3.50 to win
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – VRC Member Graeme McMenamin Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Average to Above average
1. Tally: Tally is first up today on course for a Caulfield Cup run. Last prep returned brilliantly over 1600m 3rd behind Burning Front and Humidor. Slightly shorter today and at a track he has never won at. Top weight and would be a huge effort to win.
2. Sovereign Nation: Very well backed today. Won well first up at course and distance before not great in the yard the last two starts and had to do a load of work. Went very close last start and can improve on that run back to 1400m today from a very good barrier.
3. Tried and Tired: Continues to run well this prep without winning or placing. Was a nice 4th the past two starts but has to improve to beat these home.
4. Fanatic: 1400m is short of this horses best distance range. Happy to take on here and just watch.
5. Onerous: Hawkes runner that ran very well and was backed in last start at Caulfield from an on speed position. Just found one really good and too good on the day in the winner. Will be on speed again and looks a chance.
8. Skulduggery: Couldn’t win a BM-64 last start and really needs further. Not up to this grade.
9. The Implicator: Pakenham specialist but this is about 10 grades too high.
Comments: Sovereign Nation will be very hard to beat in this grade of race. Two key chances scratched during the week and for mine Onerous and Tally look to be the only two key chances to knock us off. If Tried an Tired wins, so be it, but i couldn’t see it here.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Sovereign Nation – 5 units @ $2.50 to win.
Flemington Race 4 – 1700m – VRC Member William O’Grady Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Above average to Fast
1. Lucky Paddy: A few weeks between runs and has been only fair the three runs this prep heading in. Stays at 1700m and back to Flemington where he has run 6 times for 0 places. Obviously, needs to have improved at weights.
2. Shamkiyr: Hasn’t won for very long but has trialled well. Was a decent run 5th behind Portman first up and stepping up in distance looks suited. Big shot if improves again.
3. Riyadh: Three runs three wins this prep and continues to go through the grades. Out the back off a slow speed set out front and ran on strongly late to out sprint the field. Has top class ability to win that race last start and a big turn of foot. Very rare you will see a horse run a 21.70 final 400m over 1600m. Will settle off them and have the full straight to make up the ground. Eye-catcher.
4. Black Sheep: Was backed a bit late first up in a much easier grade of race and was solid without being overly impressive. Goes much better second up on form.
5. Portion Control: Good win last start at Caulfield beating home a nice field, but the form hasn’t exactly been hugely franked since. That being said, back in class here and still well enough in. Awkward barrier to get a good position from in a race with speed.
6. Duke of Ellington: Horrible the last two runs and not sure what to make of it. Step back in class and distance but even so hard to make much of this horse today.
7. Mr Gustavo: Three runs this prep and best effort was last start in easier 7th. Nice enough type but big ask.
8. Radical: Two runs this prep with a forgive run 1400m first up before failing on the softer track second up at Sandown. Respect enough but big ask up in class.
9. Cosmic Lights: Big warning horse as was scratched in the yard last start with a back issue. I’d have been sending the horse for a spell not backing up here. Can’t be on.
11. Jaminzah: Top class win last start from off the speed and ran on brilliantly to score in a strongly run race. This will have been but even so, he will have to be very good to come over the top of them.
12. Allelu: From Narrandera to Flemington last start and beaten 8L. No thanks.
Comments: I’m not normally a type to get overly keen on a get back run on type, but Riyadh looks a group horse this prep and based on the sectional data, I’m comfortable seeing the horse go back and run on over the top of them knowing the speed will be solid out the front.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Riyadh 1.5 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.35
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – VRC Member Mark Young Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Average
1. All Clear: QLD horse down after winning over 2200m in handicap class. With the Weir yard now and most likely needs the run at this distance.
2. Samovare: Scratched from last start run and spelled. Only run last prep was obviously top class 2nd to Pedrena and can improve this prep. Out of 3YO grade and to open class but up to BM-84. Has to improve obviously and go forward but is a G3 winner back in WA over 1600m. Suited Flemington.
3. Niminypiminy: Old mate continues to run very well this prep without winning. Last start 3rd behind a class horse in Chism was very good. Stays at 1400m and well back in class here. Out the back run on type.
4. Tavi Bay: Spring winner last prep but failed the next two starts. Trial didn’t say a lot and expect Spring plans further down the track to be top of the list.
5. O’Rachael: Ran home very well last start at Caulfield. Barrier 7 should see her get a better position today and clearly has the ability to make the grade here off the right tempo. Up to 1400m query.
6. Swampland: Two wins in a row. Simply too good for a very good field last start at course and distance and goes back in class here really. Good barrier and maps perfectly for another good run.
7. Phoenix Park: Sandown winner two back but didn’t show enough in the final last start to suggest the improvement needed here for mine. Wouldn’t be a total shock though.
8. Gold Fontein: Goes well fresh this horse based on previous records. First up this prep only average and has to improve in this grade. Respect enough.
Comments: Samovare looks the goods but is horrible under today. I can’t see why Swampland can’t repeat the efforts of the last few starts and record another win while Niminypiminy is always suited by a long straight and could go one better with a good ride.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Swampland and Niminypiminy
Flemington Race 6 – 1400m – VRC Member Joan Watson Handicap
Expected Race Speed: *Unsure* Could be Average or could be High
1. Lord Tennyson: Fairly beaten favourite last start at Bendigo from on speed when being on speed was suited. Previous start won well in lesser company. Has to improve off the last start effort but does have ability.
2. Trendsetter: First up after a long layoff. Listed placed horse over 2800m. Clearly needs further than this for very best.
3. Knowable: Not suited first up over 1100m and steps back in class and up to 1400m today where much better suited. Horrible jockey change though with Williams off and Caserta on.
4. Sir Mask: Hasn’t gone close in similar or easier races the past five starts and would need to improve today to go well.
6. Four by Four: Geelong winner to end last prep a year ago. Been off a long while and back in grade here. Trial was fair.
7. I Boogi: Won 3 of his last 4 and beat some nice types first up last start from the back. Up to 1400m is more ideally suited and has been well backed.
8. Sir Sagamore: Four runs this prep and best result was a well beaten 3rd in easier grade. Freshened up but hard to see the needed progression.
9. Kilmacurragh: BM-70 winner two preps back. Last prep ran fairly 3rd behind War Legend and Castelo over this distance. Respect but has to improve.
10. Romanesque: UK import. Maiden winner over 2400m and handicap placed over 2000m. Needs further.
11. Invictum Domina: Strong run out front in harder 3YO Filly race last start. Good enough barrier today to get a spot just off the speed for the ideal spot in running. Weighted well here.
12. Shockaholic: Hasn’t won in a fair while and two runs this prep were well below best. Hard to have.
13. Wayanka: Looked well in the yard last start over the 1600m but just didn’t see out the final 200m for mine off the hot tempo. Back in distance today ideal off that run and maps nicely enough.
14. Famelist: Fairly beaten both starts this prep in easier races. Struggle to suggest even on best.
15. Euston Road: Always been a horse with ability but certainly hard to like on recent performances. Best last prep was good enough to win this but it was a very much 1 off.
16. Mr Optimostic: Big run two back at Caulfield before ran very well 2nd last start at Bendigo when the leader got away with murder out front. Back to 1400 and should run well here.
Comments: Some very nice horses for a BM-70 grade of race. Knowable finds the right race but has a huge negative jockey change. I Boogi has turned a corner and looks ready to step up in class over and over again this prep. Invictum Domina maps well as always and can improve off that big run last start. Wayanka looks well in at the weights back in distance off the strong run last week. Mr Optimistic and Simply Invinicble at odds have claims while Tahi could very well be anything if he gets a run.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 7, 11, 13, 16
Strategy: Wayanka to win. Also back Invictum Domina.
Flemington Race 7 – 1200m – Aurie’s Star Handicap
Expected Race Speed:
1. Hey Doc: Forward enough today by all reports to record a win. 2.5L 6th in the Goodwood G1 to end last prep and won the Australian Guineas over 1600m. Goes well at this track but straight races are a different kettle of fish. Best in past seen over further but can clearly go well here.
2. I Am a Star: 3rd in the G1 Sangster last start at Morphetville. Best runs in past have been over 1400m-1600m but she runs well enough over these distance.
3. Grande Rosso: Returning Hayes horse with a load of ability. First up over 1200m which is a bit unsuitable distance wise but the horse loves Flemington.
4. We’ve Got This: Always had talent and ran well over 1200m last prep with a close 2nd in Group 2 class down the straight on the record behind G1 winner The Quarterback. Has to be respected here first up off a very solid trial.
5. Flippant: Nice enough trial beaten 2nd behind Tom Melbourne first up. Went close up in the Ramornie and is Group placed in the past.
6. Snitzson: Talented Hayes runner that they think the world of. Beat Portman last prep and ran very well 3rd in the Australian Guineas held up for runs out the back beaten 1L behind Hey Doc. Goes very well over the shorter distances and has an explosive turn of foot. Good barrier.
7. Cannyescent: Another strongly considered Hayes horse that has had a freshen up coming off three wins in a row in the Winter. Best seen over 1400m but step back to 1200m not a big disadvantage apart from the straight track run.
8. Yesterday’s Song: Run here four back was close to a career peak run. Ran very well 4th last start up at Rosehill off a solid tempo but wants them to go even harder than that. Has to improve on past few runs but has the ability.
9. Ruettiger: Another another Hayes runner that is always fancied. Well beaten last start a big issue but two back close 3rd behind Ability beaten 1.2L is good enough to consider.
10. Manuel: Mcevoy runner well beaten in the Lightning Stakes first up when well fancied behind Bandipur. Maiden only winner but was a good thing beaten last year in the Inglis Sprint
Comments: One of the toughest races of the day as I think almost every horse in the race has a chance to win it all. I have to take Hey Doc on as I think the horse is 1400m+ horse but it can win. Flippant certainly trialled well heading in but is very short also today. Ruettiger and Yesterday’s Songs are big overs at the prices while so is Snitzson.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 8, 9
Strategy: Back Ruettiger and Yesterday’s Songs at double figure odds.
Flemington Race 8 – 2000m – VRC Member Doris Theuma Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Above Average
1. Crocodile Rock: Proved to be a very good type the last two preps and clearly is a 2000m+ horse. Was found out over the 1600m first up last prep in much easier grade of race before going up to 2400m and winning well. Only a BM-78 today and obviously well in. Melham has his Cup ride right here.
2. Bling Dynasty: Ran fairly last start from out the back at Caulfield 3rd behind Portion Control. Have to respect this horse as it goes through the grades, really under-rated.
3. Clairvaux: For mine Not going very well this prep but certainly could improve. Hard to have.
5. Electric Fusion: Ran very well last start in easier grade over 1600m. Step up to a rough 2000m and will need to improve, but is going well this prep.
7. Northern Journey: Miracle win at big odds five back and hasn’t been close since. Has to improve in this grade.
8. Annaman: Competitive over this distance in the past but looks a step below on everything I’ve seen.
9. Galaxy Raider: Very good run 3rd in harder grade last start over 2000m at Flemington. In well at weights again but lesser barrier today and has to go on with it again.
10. Macrobius: Won 2 in a row on the SYnthetic which isn’t exactly great form lines. Has a lot to prove.
11. The Thug: Never really measured up to this grade in the past and just here for a run I’d have thought.. but did beat home Yogi last start so you never know.
12. Hardington: Every chance last start at Morphetville and found little. Ran okay the run prior and best seen in past over these distances.
13. Dollar for Dollar: 4-wide the trip last start at course over 1600m last start and just didn’t see it out with the tough run. Still very good 5th beaten 2L. Respect on form and only issue are up in distance.
14. Bajour: Two runs this prep and first up was horrible but last start wasn’t bad held up for runs and finished off okay. Up in distance will suit again.
15. Manapine: Three runs this prep and not gone close on any occasion. Really hard to suggest on current form.
16. Alward: Too far back favourite last start and came home well. Previous start held up at similar stages also. 2400m horse back home.
Comments: Another very difficult race with horses on the up. Both Williams runners go forward here. Crocodile Rock looks the real deal, but is certainly short in the market.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 9, 13, 16
Strategy: Crocodile Rock to win. Small bet at odds also on Bling Dynasty.
Flemington Race 9 – 1000m – VRC Member Charles White Handicap
Expected Race Speed: Average to above average.
1. Gun Case: Massive drifter in betting last start at Sandown when a month between runs and got the win anyway on the day. Up in grade here but clearly going well. Never done much down the straight in the past though.
2. General Truce: Old mate is 10YO now and you have to think he doesn’t have a surprise or two up his sleeves.. but he did run okay enough first up in G3 at Caulfield.
3. Rough Justice: Very disappointing run last start at Flemington when just not good enough behind Play Master and Kirani off a sit and sprint home. The previous start at Flemington was 1.4L off Ability. Clearly, on his day has the ability.
4. Tudor: Gelded. Expected to push the tempo today. A while between drinks and last win was over 1400m. Hard to suggest the win.
5. So Si Bon: Third in a G1 last prep on Heavy 10 at Rosehill. 3.2L 4th at course over 1200m that same prep amazingly. Needs further.
6. Play Master: Didn’t look great in the yard last start and ran accordingly for mine, out sprinted didn’t show much. Could surprise back and run well here.
7. Rocket Tommy: Last prep proved to be a legit good horse down the straight on a Good track. Expect a Good 4 most likely on the day with a bit of rain around but will be perfectly suited to him. Goes very well first up and loves the 1000m.
8. Orujo: Got the win for the prep last start at Sale as favourite. Much harder step up in grade here but can measure up.
9. Sunday Escape: Continues to run well this prep without winning. Step back in class after a 5th in G3 company last start. Back to 1000m looks to suit and can run well.
10. Runson: Goes best over the 1000m distance. Last prep in easier grades won twice. Can run well but has never placed at track.
11. Tribal Wisdom: Best runs in the past have been in similar grades of races over this distance. Lightly raced type with ability.
12. Runsati: Continues to run well the past 10 starts but 0 wins. Two runs this prep not great.
13. Gibbon: Well backed last start at Sandown but beaten on the day by Gun Case who was simply too good. Had won previous 2 starts and is being pushed up in grade again here.
15. Search Squad: Better seen over 1200m+ Couldn’t suggest in this grade.
16. Royalic: Ran 2nd first up in Synthetic. Wasn’t bad previous two starts over in WA but clearly, has to improve on first up run.
Comments: Happy to have a small play here on both Rocket Tommy and Sunday Escape at good odds.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 10
Strategy: Rocket Tommy – 1.25 units @ $6.00. Sunday Escape 0.75 units @ $13.00
