Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington on 11 March 2017. It’s another strong day of racing from Flemington with the Australia Cup and Newmarket on the cards and there is a key best bet on the card i want to back in an earlier race. Overall, there looks a fair bit of value on the card so let’s hope we can land some best bets today to kick off the long weekend. I’ll be driving up to Adelaide for Cup day on Monday so will be previewing a few races from there and Moonee Valley as well so keep your eyes out for that on Monday. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Toga Picta – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $8.50/$2.50
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Jameka – 2 units Each-Way @ $4.60/$1.80
Best Value
Flemington Race 9 – Shaf – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $8/$2.88
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 9, 12, 14
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 7, 10, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1400m – The Melbourne Cup Carnival on Sale Handicap
1. By The Grace: Tough weight today but he finds himself well enough in at a distance that suits and a track that he has had success at in the past. Obviously very poor first up and top weight here, but has the ability to more than measure up.
2. Sadaqa: Good run first up and went close two back at course and distance in harder company. Last start forward off a hot speed and fell out of it quickly late in the piece. Maps to sit just off the two leaders today and get a better run. Short backup a disadvantage i’d have thought.
3. The New Boy: Old mate continues to put in some decent runs this prep without going close to a win. Had every chance the past few runs. Hard to suggest.
4. Time to Test: McEvoy runner that is first up here. Never placed at distance in the past and best has been seen over further. That being said, the horse does go well enough over this distance from past runs.
5. Duibio: Horrible last start after pulling up lame at course and distance. Not convinced the horse is over the lameness issue after what i saw last start. Has to improve.
6. King’s Command: Out the back last start at Sandown when back to 1200m strangely. Previous two runs over 1519m and 1600m were solid for places. Suited well enough here from has to improve form to win.
7. Dusty Jack: Two starts for two wins in a row this prep going through the grades. Well enough in here again and will be going close. Form lines are sound enough at the weights.
8. Top Me Up: Went close taking a sit last start at Sandown over the 1300m and two back didn’t run badly when held up for runs and should have bolted in. Imagine they actually lead again today which is where he shows his very best.
9. Cannyescent: Hayes runner that won very well first up in much easier grade at Ballarat on a soft 6 over 1200m. Up to 1400m an advantage but huge jump in class and this is a big test. Maps poorly.
10. Battlecamp: Big win last start at Sandown over the 1600m bolting in. Two back was a very good run but clearly didn’t want the 1800m. Back to 1400m no negative at all and maps for a perfect run today. Could simply be better than these?
Comments: I’m convinced that Cannyescent is well under the correct odds here today and has to be taken on. Dusty Jack will measure up to this class, but I have a strong feeling on the form that Top Me Up or Battlecamp will prove to be the better horses on the day.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back both Battlecamp and Top Me Up
Flemington Race 2 – 1800m – My Kitchen Rules Handicap
1. Aloft: Team Williams runner. Last prep ran well enough first up over 2040m but was no match for some average enough types. Next start failed over 2500m and jockey suggested the horse needs a good 4 or wetter track.
2. Ancient King: Over the hurdles last prep. Poor first up over the unsuitable 1400m and had a hurdle trial since. Not the main aim and needs further.
3. Hipparchus: Very disappointing last start as favourite at Caulfield when well beaten on the day. Form out of that race hasn’t exactly held up either. Two back win at course and distance was nice.
5. Try Four: Last prep hurdle winner. Not a bad run firs tup over 1400m and wide no cover last start finished off strongly over 1700m here last start. Had a hurdle trial between runs and a win here wouldn’t be a total shock with Rawiller taking the ride.
6. Dodging Bullets: Nice win three back at Caulfield and was unlucky not to score two back over the 2000m. Last start was fairly beaten over the 2000m at Flemington and the step back to 1800m for mine seems more suitable today.. hard to dismiss.
7. Golden Mane: Didn’t show a lot the first three runs in this prep and pulled up lame the last start. Has been working well at home but hard to back even with the freshen-up off a lameness issue.
8. Martinvast: 2600m winner back in April of 2015. First run since last start and wasn’t terrible but didn’t show much. Hard to suggest the improvement. Needs further.
9. Red Alto: Won three in a row and this is a big step up in distance and also in grade today. 5 runs at the track for 0 places. Big ask.
10. Hursley: Expecting the tempo to be more than solid enough today to have every possible chance like last start. Ran very well 2nd course over 2000m last start and maps for an ideal run today with a sit.
11. Post D’France: Good win two back at course over 2000m and last start simply didn’t get the 2600m for mine. Back to 1800m more suited today.
12. Waxing: Two runs this prep and beaten fairly both starts. On a hurdles prep.
Comments: A race of different form lines taking on each other. I am happy to take on Aloft today and similar with Golden Mane and Red Alto. Hursley, Post D’france, Dodging Bullets and try Four are the top 4 in my betting market. At the prices on offer, i’ll be backing Dodging Bullets and Post D’france.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back both Dodging Bullets and Post D’France.
Flemington Race 3 – 1100m – Incognitus Stakes
1. Sweet Sherry: 1200m winner at Moonee Valley in this grade last prep. Has won at this track in the past also. Clearly has ability and goes well first up.
2. Ken’s Dream: Good type of horse and proved it first up with some very strong wins and runs including a 2nd to Benz and 2.7L 4th to Flying Artie.
4. Barthelona: Disappointing run 2nd up and every chance last start at Moonee Valley in easier grade than this. Not going as well as last prep for mine but should still run well.
5. Selenia: Loves the Flemington straight. Ran well here first up in similar grade and the last start run was solid from too far back in run. Ready to win.
6. Matty: Strong win at Moonee Valley last start over 1000m and can continue to run well through the grades. Has to improve again though.
8. Power Trip: Had every chance to show something first up and was horrible. Have to take him on.
9. Magnatti: A little disappointing last start in Group company out the front at Moonee Valley. Suspect they may may just take a sit today first time down the straight. Has ability.
10. Falcool: Hard horse to place based on last prep. Only ever placed or won on heavy.
11. Sheriff John Stone: Nice enough win in much easier grade last start at Cranbourne. Looks outclassed here on paper, but the form is strong enough to run well.
12. Waterloo Sunset: Finished up over much further last prep. needs the run here and a longer distance.
13. Clockwork Orange: Good run 2nd to Brugal Reward last start and can take the extra step up here. Only run down the straight in first prep was a fail.
14. Motown Lil: Average at best first up. Previous prep runs has her well below these.
15. Lionhearted: Couldn’t win a 4 horse race last start at Ballarat. Take on here.
16. Villa Rosa: Good horse. Blocked for runs when it mattered last start behind Brugal Reward. Can run well here and will measure up and feature.
17. Lilac Lane: Maiden winner in much easier than this. Has to improve but has some ability.
18. Armedanddangerous: Not the worst runner in the race and measured up as a 2YO in easier. Not for me.
Comments: This is one of the toughest races on the card today with several chances. Sweet Sherry is well in and so is Ken’s who is under the odds. Barthelona is probably over the odds also while Matty deserves to be near favourite as he is. Villa Rosa could surprise. Selenia is the overs in the race coming off a very solid run that measures up here.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Selenia E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – MSS Security Sires’ Produce Stakes
1. Aspect: Showed the ability at course over 1000m last prep but failed to fire on two occasions this prep. May be wanting the 1400m?
2. Colesberg: Ran home well last start in the Skyline from out the back on the heavy track after a good heavy track win first up. If as good on the dry as on the wet he has to be considered a bit chance.
3. Eshtiraak: Three starts for three wins this prep and looking for the 1400m. Looks a very nice type in the making and will be hard to hold out from a perfect draw.
4. Ace High: Nice enough run 5th heading into this up in Randwick off a 6th. Others preferred on what i’ve seen to date.
5. Groundbreak: Solid 4th first up behind Ducimus and Taking Aim down the straight. Straight up to 1400m here where may have more dash late.
6. Feng Chu: Two runs this prep for a 4th and 3rd. Both were solid enough runs but no match on both attempts. Others preferred.
7. Toga Picta: Wyong winner for the Godolphin team in a very smart time over the 1300m – was very green and still got there. Looks a nice type and up to 1400m today will be well suited. Looks a big danger to the favourite.
8. Sircconi: Ran a strong 2nd from on speed last start in a head to head battle with Eshtiraak. Simply found a good type in Eshtiraak on the day. Hard to see him going past the horse today.
9. Black Sail: Only run to date was 4th behind Eshtiraak beaten 4L. Struggle to sugges the improvement.
10. Yue Fei: Fair enough run at Benalla first up in a maiden for third, but this is much tougher. Has to improve lengths.
Comments: Toga Picta is a clear class horse on the first up win we saw at Wyong. Was battling home strongly and got over the top of them like a class runner. Will be suited to a strong tempo if it does occur on the day and based on what I saw last start, I expect Toca Picta to be even better when they don’t run it along so hard early. From the barrier, I’m hoping Toca Picta get a run 2 back the outside and we will have no real excuses on the day barring a crawl out the front.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Toga Picta – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $8.50/$2.50
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – TAB Kewney Stakes
2. I Am A Star: FM-Group 1 winner last prep over 1600m. First up ran well 2nd to Super Cash over the unsuitable sprint distance and then horribly placed in Group 1 class 2nd up when ran home well. Up to 1400m and much better suited, but i’m not sold on the lead in run to take the shorts.
3. Ellicazoom: Strong run 2nd at Caulfield over 1400m on speed. Group placed over 1600m back home. Can run well again and will be much better suited with a sit.
4. Kenedna: Strong win last start at course and distance in only slightly lesser grade. The real deal and can run well and measure up again here. Barrier the only negative.
5. Oregon’s Day: Nice enough run behind Ellicazoom and Fuhryk before that. Well suited at Flemington.
6. Modern Wonder: Never been far off at top level in any of her past runs. First up was good enough from an on speed spot. Has to improve.
7. Navagio: Really liked what I saw of her first up and was just a forgive 2nd up. Up to 1400m today and well suited. Value.
8. Fragonard: Strong win last prep in very easy grade. First up at Rosehill lead all the way over 1300m and won nicely enough. Moreira on. Has to step it up again.
9. Florida Keys: Every chance the past few starts in similar grades of races. Place at best.
10. Soho Ruby: Ran average at best first up over 1200m. Has to improve.
11. A Mist Opportunity: Hawkes stable runner that couldn’t win from out the front in a slow time last start at Ballarat in much easier. Not here.
12. Savaju: Strong BM-64 grade win first up before last over 110m last start in F&M grade last week. Short back up and has to clear improve.
13. Sognani: Bm-64 winner first up in a nice enough time. Previous prep didn’t measure up to this grade. Has to clearly find another few lengths.
14. Red is the Rose: Big maiden win last start at Sandown smashing the field from the front. Certainly a nice type but huge step up required here.
15. Classic Diva: Nice enough type of horse but has only won a maiden in the past and didn’t show a great deal first up.
Comments: A few key chances in Ellicazoom, I Am a Star and Kenedna while Navagio is the value.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Ellicazoom to win. Also a small bet on Navagio
Flemington Race 6 – 1600m – Schweppervescence Trophy
1. Miss Rose de Lago: Finally drawn a positive barrier and up to the ideal 1600m distance today. Ran a blinder last start at Caulfield from off the speed and i’m expecting her to be clearly on speed with Choose. Can run well and can win in this grade.
3. Lady Selkirk: Nice run for 6th last start from off the speed over 1400m in this grade. Up to 1600m again today will have her right in this. Goes well at track.
4. Nurse Kitchen: 1600m Group 2 winner as a 3YO in that grade. Failed to fire first up not showing a great deal over the 1400m and in my opinion i’m not convinced she is up to this grade against the mature mares just yet.
5. Manageress: Never suited first up over 1200m and slowly away last start and only fairly through the line. Better than what we saw last start but she has to find her very best to be in the finish today.
6. Choose: On speed runner today. two runs this prep on speed and failed both attempts. Never placed at this distance and struggle to suggest.
7. Domino Vitale: Two wins in a row before failing to fire last start at Caulfield in this grade. Has to clearly improve even at the 1600m back at a track she runs well at.
8. Alaskan Rose: Not the worst return first up and didn’t set the world on fire last start either. Never won in this grade in the past from nearly 16 attempts. Has to improve.
9. Circular: Godolphin runner. First up 1.5L 5th in Group 2 class over 1200m. Failed to fire on the Soft the next start. Up to 1600m where she should be best suited on past performances but this is certainly testing material.
10. Deja Blue: Short backup off a 1.5L 5th at course over 1400m with no excuses. Looked the winner half way down the straight but found a few too good.
11. Shutter Bug: Been running up north and first attempt at this track. Hard to suggest on past runs.
12. Zasorceress: Unlucky 2nd last start at Ballarat off a slow speed out front. Three back run was a good win. Goes well off a strong pace.
13. Rising Hope: BM-70 winner in a nice time last start in Adelaide. Big step up here. Has ability but i struggle to suggest the win.
14. Pure Pride: Looked good last prep with placing in Group 2 company and 0.9L 5th in G1. Fairly beaten over 1400m first up in easier. Bad gate.
15. Sebring Dream: Nice win first up at Sandown in easier grade. Group placed in the past and will obviously run well.
16. Smart As You Think: F&M winner last prep but over further. Nicely enough in here coming off not the worst run first up.. but needs further and easier.
Comments: Expecting the speed to be on today. Miss Rose de Lago and Lady Selkirk will both be in the right position today on speed and finishing off strongly. Not convinced Circular will be in the right spot from the barrier when it matters.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 9, 12, 14
Strategy: Back both Miss Rose de Lago and Lady Selkirk
Flemington Race 7 – 1200m – Lexus Newmarket Handicap
1. Terravista: WFA-G1 winner last start. Comes into this race obviously poorly weighted at Handicap conditions. Will run well but others preferred on the win.
2. Spieth: Weighted fairly IMO today coming off a good 2nd behind Terravista over the 1000m. Better suited up to 1200m and clearly one of the top chances in the race.
3. The Quarterback: First up off a massive setback in the Lightning when injured under the stalls. Hard to see the run to win this today. Can run well though.
4. Sheidel: Big win first up at Caulfield in Group 1 company. WFA-G1 2nd last prep also over 1200m. Goes well down the straight and has won 3 of her last 5 races. Clearly good enough at the weights.
5. Voodoo Lad: Very strong prep in the Spring with a 04.L 2nd over 1400m on the record. Has been trained for this throughout the summer and will be rock hard fit. Can run well but IMO he is a few steps short today of the win here.
6. Extreme Choice: Obviously the eye-catcher first up when given a terrible ride by Newitt and probably should have won. Much better weighted today and he is clearly a top class colt.
7. Illustrious Lad: Weighted to win today coming off a very strong 5th in the Lightning. I really liked the first up run and I think the horse is at his best over the 1200m. Looks a big chance here.
8. Tivaci: Strong win first up over 1000m which was a tad surprise considering the horse showed it’s best last prep over further. Can run well but not a winner here for mine.
9. Star Turn: Well weighted again today off a strong 3rd in WFA-G1 last start. Will be ridden differently today I imagine and will push more of a pace early on. One of the key chances.
10. Super Cash: Group 2 winner last start in nice time when getting away with stealing a few lengths on the rail at Caulfield. Going well enough but has to improve again.
11. Counterattack: Not the worst last start but never suited over the 1000m or off the slow tempo. Well weighted down to 52.5kg today and is a blowout chance at his best.
12. Redkirk Warrior: Group 1 placed over in HK. Best seen over further. Take on today.
13. Inspector: Decent run last prep in Group 3 company. Struggle to suggest here.
Comments: Wide open race. Spieth deserves to be favourite but I don’t see any value in the price. Sheidel has done nothing wrong and will measure up to this grade while Star Turn will run much better today at the weights off a stronger on speed tempo. Illustrious Lad looks well in at the weights while Counterattack is the blowout chance.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11
Strategy: Sheidel E/W
Flemington Race 8 – 2000m – TAB Australian Cup
1. Stratum Star: Run of the race last start in the Peter Young Stakes and got there for the win. Was well suited by the pace and continues to run well. Won a G1 three runs back in WA over 1800m. Have to consider.
2. Awesome Rock: Two runs in this prep and both were below his very best. Hard to see the improvement needed third up today based on the two lead in runs. Does have the ability and goes best at Flemington though.
3. The United States: Always been around the mark at the 2000m distance in the past and has won G1 Ranvet in the past. Last prep failed to get wins in G1 but did run well obviously and was a G2 winner. First up wasn’t far off Stratum Star or Humidor from a forward position and had every possible. Can improve today but has never won at track from 5 starts is an issue and will be further back today.
4. Mourinho: Three runs this prep and failed to fire on any occasion. Bad barrier again and hard to suggest here.
5. Ecuador: Continues to run really well this prep with two wins in easier class first and second up before a G1 3rd the next two starts. Questionable 1400m up to 2000m today but will be on speed and every chance if they run it along slowly enough the first 600m.
6. Exospheric: Ran home well first up over the 1800m when 6th behind Stratum Star, Humidor etc and a few others. Will be out the back and running on strongly late more suited by the Flemington straight over this distance. Respect.
7. Tally: Had every chance last start in the Peter Young and finished off only fairly for mine. I really feel at this stage in his career he is being running against horses a few lengths better than him. Place chance for mine.
8. Tom Melbourne: Massive forgive run first up when never got a run and was absolutely flying to the line. Last start ridden quietly again out the back and hit the line solidly on what was a very average ride giving the horse no chance on the day held up back the rail. I have to believe they will ride him forward today with no speed in the race outside of Ecuador and he will have every chance.
9. Boom Time: Good win last start at Caulfield over 2000m when beat some second rate stayers in listed grade. He is a very good horse going forward, but i’m not convinced he is good enough to win a Group 1 here.
10. Humidor: For mine he had every chance last start at Caulfield and found one better. Yes, it was a good run but he seems to always find one better with his racing pattern. Will be back and running on again. Obviously a key chance.
11. Jameka: Given a very average ride last start at Caulfield in the Peter Young and ran a huge race. Good lead in run and looks well suited back to Flemington. The horse to beat, just needs a good run in transit.
Comments: Jameka is the clear top pick in the race. Yes, i’m still a Tom Melbourne fan but there isn’t much value in the price on offer. Humidor and Stratum Star are obviously both key players also while Ecuador and Exospheric are also blowout chances. The Each-Way odds on offer for Jameka are hard to pass up.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11
Strategy: Jameka – 2 units Each-Way @ $4.60/$1.80
Flemington Race 9 – 1000m – James Boag’s Premium Handicap
1. Setinum: First up today over an unsuitable distance at a track he is yet to win at. Yes, has won over 1200m in the past, but the horses best is 1200-1600m now 1000m.
2. Shaf: His very best runs are more than good enough to blow this field away. Last prep over the 1000m in this grade flew home in fast time. Was fair behind Redzel the last run as well. Goes well first up and loves this distance. Very hard to beat.
3. Iconic: Hasn’t gone close to a win in the past three preps. Hard to suggest here.
4. Whistle Baby: Consistently strong horse in listed and BM-90 company over the past prep. Got a win in mares grade. Has won at track and likes this distance. Best probably over further but best win last prep was over 1200m. Goes well enough first up.
5. Gallant Harmony: Horrible first up over the 955m at Moonee Valley. 1200m winner last prep from start to finish at Ballarat. Best is seen over longer distance. Hard to have on first up run.
6. Bullpit: Certainly goes well down the straight but hasn’t won in a long time. Every possible chance on speed last start and hasn’t won in 9 runs this prep and won’t be winning today.
7. Orujo: Thrown in the lightning but was scratched at the gates. Close 2nd last start over 955m at Moonee Valley since. Respect and can run well.
8. Taddei Tondo: Not won in a year and a half and last prep had more than 10 runs for one second. First up showed very little.
9. Pretty Possum: Strong win last start over 955m at Moonee Valley saving ground and beating a nice type in Lady Esprit. Never gone well in the past down the straight is the issue.
10. Sunday Escape: Continues to run well this prep without winning in 11 runs. Last two starts fairly beaten running well at Moonee Valley and Caulfield. Has won at track in the past on his last win in August of 2015.
11. Super Fun: Hayes runner with Moreira on down the straight. Three runs this prep and the best was clearly first up. Never won in this class but has gone close. Previous prep was going better and may need a few more runs to hit his peak.
12. Rocket Tommy: Sensationally strong win last start down the straight and steps back to the 1000m today. Didn’t exactly beat much though last start is the only issue and can he step up again here off a stronger tempo run out front instead of a sit and sprint?
13. Runsati: Another horse that just fails to get the wins. Been running well all prep but finding a few too good on all occasions. Goes well at this track but has never won.
14. Lonrockstar: Four runs this prep and hasn’t exactly gone close on any occasion. Easiest test of the lot and goes well on the track, but obviously has to improve again.
15. Bon Rocket: Four runs this prep. Should have won first up and was fairly beaten the past two starts. Never placed in this class certainly an issue.
Comments: Five clear as day chances in this race for mine and i’m happy to bet around every other runner in the race. The standout from the five quaddie numbers is Shaf. His best is more than good enough to win this first up and i’m keen to bet on the Each-Way
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 7, 10, 12
Strategy: Shaf – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $8/$2.88
