Welcome to The Profits preview from Flemington on 10 June 2017. The track is looking good for the day at Flemington with a Good 4/3 track on offer and no real winds on the radar giving us the right betting track. We are going short and sweet on a few bets today and i’m looking to turn around some recent form lags. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Goathland – 6 units @ $2.30 to win.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Dam Ready – 2.5 units @ $5.00 to win. Casque – 0.5 units @ $26 to win.
Other Bet
Flemington Race 1 – Lone Eagle – 1.75 units @ $3.00 to win. Sia 0.75 units @ $7.5 to win.
Best Value Bets
Flemington Race 7 – Airalign – 1 units Each-Way @ $17/$4.90
Doomben Race 8 – Hooked – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $31/$8.50
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 12, 13
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 6, 7, 10, 15
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
If you prefer to hear the race by race thoughts with a bit more detail on runners i like, then watch the video below
Flemington Race 1 – 1100m – Eugene Gorman 2YO Handicap
1. Andaz: Geelong winner first up on a soft 5. Time was nice enough for the grade and looks a progressive type. Has to improver up to this but has ability and should be suited down the straight.
2. Lone Eagle: Sensational first up run 2nd to Cliff’s Edge in a high rating 2YO race. Looks ideally suited down the straight and D Oliver keeps the ride for a big reason. Deserves to be favourite.
3. Counterplay: Two runs for two wins for this Adelaide runner. Big 2YO win heading into this in a 9 horse race from off the speed winning by 4.5L. Looks to have top ability.
4. The Consigliere: Ran home well enough last start at Sandown but fairly beaten and a step below these on form. I get the feeling the horse will be better suited at Flemington today and could place at massive odds. One to watch
5. Prezado: 2nd at Ballarat first up from off the speed beaten 2.5L. Can improve but still needs to find a few lengths.
6. Royal Phoenix: Only fairly bred type for mine, but ran very well for a 1000m first up run last prep. Expected to have trained on well and should run nicely enough.
7. Found Out: Every chance the past two starts and found nothing. One to forget.
8. Olifants: Godolphin runner that has had two maiden runs for a 4th and 5th. Struggle to suggest on current form and looking for further on breeding.
9. Evil Cry: Trial winning last start before going around at big odds for 5th in G3 company at Morphetville. Had every chance on the day with the run and was only beaten 2.9L. Back in grade here.
10. Sia: Hayes stable runner. Won fairly first up at Geelong on the Synthetic. Cost $1.1million as a Yearling. To my eye looks to have a load of ability and can run very well here.
Comments: On my form, two clear standouts in Lone Eagle and Sia. Both come into this race off hot form line races and both give me the indication of horses that will enjoy the straight. Don’t be surprised to see The Consigliere run a better race and might surprise for a place.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Lone Eagle – 1.75 units @ $3.10. Sia 0.75 units @ $7
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Trevor Clarke Handicap
1. Samovare: Well backed Hayes runner. Imported from WA where she won the G3 WA Championship beating a very nice type in Ellicazoom. Best run was over 1600m but has run very well over 1400m in the past also. Goes well enough fresh. D Oliver on a very positive change.
2. Pedrena: Bayliss off Mertens on again. Ran home well enough off a slower than expected pace out front that suited Soho Ruby on the day. Looks to be the right amount of speed in this race and back to 1400m is ideal.
3. Soho Ruby: Got the run of the race last start at Sandown and ran well with the speed not being overly strong from on speed. Likely type to improve again but questionable distance drop on that last start win? Has run well here in the past over the distance though.
4. Classic Diva: Well beaten last start at Caulfield behind Pedrena but did pull up with a hind wound. Very well in at weights today in comparison.
5. Alma’s Rossa: Ran average at very best first up at the Bool and freshened up between runs. Best in the past was short of this grade so has a lot to prove.
6. Facts: 1200m up to 1400m today after winning in much easier first up. Lightly raced type. Trainer/Jockey combo has a positive ROI.
7. Summer Glen: 2nd first up well beaten behind Divine Quality and then well beaten again last start. Hard to suggest.
8. Swampland: BM-70 favourite last start at Cranbourne when $1.85 favourite and found one too good and 3rd was 0.4L off the win also. Step up in grade here for this nice type.
9. Rose ahead: Maiden winner. Well beaten all runs since but did place 2nd (beaten 2L) last start at $40-1. Has to improve.
10. Miss Adequate: Bendigo maiden winner last start by 4.5L. Very good win on the day first up and looks to be a type better suited to 1400m. Respect.
11. Miss Siska: Well bred type. Loomed at the 200m last start but found a few too good. Up to 1400m on breeding isn’t great but have to believe it will help her.
Comments: Tough betting race. Samovare is a dead set good type and G3 winner over in WA. Ellicazoom backs up the form and D Oliver takes the ride for a reason. Get just off the pace and run on very well. Miss Adequate looks big odds and the value while Predrena and Soho Ruby are the two to beat.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Samovare to win. Also back Miss Adequate.
Flemington Race 3 – 1000m – Bruce Gadsden Handicap
1. Husson Eagle: Rattled home last start for a close 3rd behind two very strong form horses in Crystal Dreamer and Malibu Style. Clearly good enough to put these away today.
2. Santa Ana Lane: Wagga Town Plate winner two back. 5th in the Goodwood beaten from out the back
3. Diamond Oasis: First up down the straight was horrible. May need the run here.
4. Military Reign: Ascot import. Last run was g3 Roma cup for 2nd over 1200m. Ran a close 3rd behind Magic Rock. Respect this ability.
5. O’malley: Disappointing the last two starts. Had trialled well enough in the prep. Hasnt won in 5 matches.
6. Rough Justice: First up today over an unsuitable distance and little chance for being first up, unless fit.
7. Lake Como: Won two of four this prep. Failed to fire last start and three back. G1 run was horrible. Maps nicely in this.
8. Bullpit: Doesn’t win often and hasn’t for 10 runs. Hard to suggest.
9. Play Master: Hasn’t won a race in the last 10 runs. Not too dangerous but did drag someone. Two back run was eye-catchying
Comments: Thee standouts in Husson Eagle, Lake Como and Play Master.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lake Como to win. Also back Play Master.
Flemington Race 4 – 2500m – Young Members’ Ball Handicap
2. Authoritarian: Never placed on a good track and looking towards hurdles. Others preferred.
3. Falago: Two runs in this prep and hasn’t been able to get too close. Should be coming into form with 3 weeks between runs and in training 2 months now. Very low weight but hasn’t won in a long time.
4. Shoreham: Thought he ran a very nice race two back at Flemington and battled home well also last start at Moonee Valley. Week between runs and is flying. Can place.
5. Goathland: Slowly run 2400m race last start at Sandown. Sat behind the leaders last start and just didn’t have the turn of foot to measure up. Expect a much stronger tempo out front today and will be better suited here.
7. Try Four: Continues to run well this prep without getting a win on the flat. Surprised to see him running on the flat again. Has to improve. Will be better suited by a stronger tempo.
8. Unfurl: Respectable run 3.8L third at Morphetville last start. Others preferred on current form.
9. Charlevoix: Nice enough win at Cranbourne over 2580 last start. Returned to form and can run well at his very best.
10. Cinnamon Carter: Couldn’t see a win here today in this grade. Others preferred.
11. Wells: Not the worst runner here but others preferred.
Comments: Happy to bet around Charlevoix who looks well unders here. Try Four and Grand Dreamer also hard to suggest. Shoreham at odds can run a bold race and place. Two standouts are Goathland and De Little Engine – clearly the two class runners of the race.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Goathland – 2.5 units @ $3.60. De Little Engine – 2.5 units @ 3.60.
Flemington Race 5 – 1800m – Ken Cox Handicap
1. Kilimanjaro: 2 full years between runs. Very best of that Derby Trial is more than good enough to be well suited here. Gelded. Weighted to win if good enough.
2. Master Zephyr: Horrible last start off the fast tempo set at course over 2000m in harder company. First up ran quite well over at Morphetville over shorter. Back to 1800m and back in grade. Best runs can clearly measure up.
3. Eximius: Hard horse to catch at the best of times. Coming off a 18L defeat, Eximius was horrible the run prior also. Big jump in distance and a query.
4. Ormito: Weir runner imported from UK. G3 placed over 2600. Still well short of its best distances today but blinkers on will improve and so will track condition. Win wouldn’t shock especially if well backed.
5. Albonetti: Terrible first up and backed up the form last start in easier grade when poor at course over 1600m. Best in past was good but that was many years ago. Hard to suggest.
6. Amarela: Stable hasn’t been in the best of form as of late, but this is one of their runners that has been consistently running well without winning. Step up in grade again today is a query but always goes well at this track.
7. Encosta Line: Eye-catching run three back at Hawkesbury but just hasn’t finished off well on softer ground the last two starts. Best is on firmer and gets that here. Win won’t shock but does look under the odds.
8. Zourkhan: Won well first up at Flemington when sat off the speed and pounced at the perfect time on a suit suited to that type of ride. Up in distance and up in class, has to improve onwards and upwards again but clearly has ability. Barrier suits.
9. Zahspeed: 6th up this prep and has continued to be backed all prep. Hasn’t got within 4L the past 3 runs and no real excuses apart from last start into the wind. I can see why people would back the horse here, but I couldn’t have it at the odds and would rather bet elsewhere.
10. Bullish Stock: Does his best work over much further distances than this and was only fair at best first up. Others preferred.
11. Portion Control: Got back last start and ran home well after covering a bit of ground and pushing into the out wide breeze. Can improve onwards here and a win wouldn’t shock at all. Well weighted and good barrier.
13. Welcome Stryker: Couldn’t place in BM-64 grade last start. Back to a dryer surface and clearly stable are trying to pull the wool over our heads having run on the softer tracks. Reckon this guy could run a race and surprise us.
Comments: Wide open staying race. Portion Control is the horse i’m expecting to get much better runs today and of the recent Flemington runs is the one to watch. Kilimanjaro is a huge watch also first up but a few scratchings in the past weeks has me sheepish on this horse. Wouldn’t be surprised to see either Master Zephyr or Ormito well backed and run big races.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Portion Control E/W
Flemington Race 6 – 2000m – Henry Bolte Handicap
1. All Out of Love: Hard to dismiss this Hayes gelding on form lines. Nice win at Pakenham on the synthetic over 1600m and then swooped around the field at Caulfield last start in brilliant fashion. Expect to be only slightly worse than Midfield today and a big shot.
2. Kiwia: Strong Ballarat winner two back before being fairly beaten last start at Cranbourne by Khutulun. Did run well though and step back to own age group has him well in here.
3. Docker Pav: Form lines from best runs in the past actually measure up for a solid run here today back in grade coming off a listed grade 4th over further. Respect.
4. Guangzhou: Got the win last start at course in ‘harder’ class when got home late suited by the wind on the day. Step up to 2000m the big unknown negative.
5. Frankly Harvey: Likely leader on form. BM-58 grade winner. Hard to suggest.
6. Trogir: BM-70 grade 2nd last start in Adelaide when fairly beaten by a type I wouldn’t be backing here today. Need to improve up to this distance.
7. Royal Order: Kent runner that won a maiden as the lead in over 1600m but times were only average. Does get back and run on also.
8. Solo Heart: Maiden winner as a short priced fav but didn’t exactly win easy and the final 400m sectional was average at very best. Take on.
9. The Harrovian: Fairly beaten first up in CL1 class at Geelong before failing in harder up in Sydney. Not here.
10. Moshway: Showed ability in previous preps but nothing this prep. Have to take on.
11. Savvy Dresser: 2YO Maiden winner over distance last start. Huge jump in class here. D Oliver keeps the ride.
12. Tell the Truth: Solid maiden win two back on the synthetic and then last start finished off fairly from the back. Respect horses ability now.
13. A Moving Place: Short backup off a strong run 3rd behind The Passage and Greviste. Best is good enough to measure up.
14. Windbern: Sale 2nd in similar grade on soft 5. Ran behind Kaptive Hero two back. Has to improve.
215. Octuplets: Three runs this prep beaten 2.7L and hard to see the improvement needed to beat every runner here home. Others preferred.
16. Kaptive Hero: Griffiths stable. Best runs in the past in easier but clearly has ability to consider here. Greviste form.
18. Cincinnati Kid: Led them around at a very strong tempo last start at Flemington and similar is expected today. Hard to suggest on form.
Comments: Speed looks to be on. Not overly confident in getting involved with many chances on paper. Getting a much better run in passage today, I find it hard to drop off All Out of Love at nice odds.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 12, 13
Strategy: All Out of Love E/W
Flemington Race 7 – 1400m – Rod Johnson Handicap
1. Charmed Harmony: Horrible ride and horrible run last start at course and distance. Shouldn’t be much wind for this meeting and should get his chance on the day.
2. Royal Rapture: D Oliver onboard today. Ran poorly at the bool but has a very good 2nd up record and won 4 from 6 at this track. Best in the past have been over slightly further and on softer. Tough barrier to get a spot today.
3. Mihany: Expected to be on speed toughing it out with Charmed Harmony. Had a very poor run first up down the straight and is better suited over this distance, but clearly has to improve again.
4. Loresho: Group 3 winner in France over 2500m. 650 days between runs. Needs the run here. Can’t have at distance.
5. Hard Call: Solid form going through the grades and up in distance this prep but drops sharply 2000m back to 1400m here up in grade again. Hard to suggest for mine even if the horse is good.
6. Sovereign Nation: Well backed first up when sat off the speed and got the gun ride and run into the race in the speed lane and won very well. Only negative is staying at 1400m today. Will get speed on again.
7. Tshahitsi: Echuca Cup winner last start on a softer track. Previous runs were solid without going close in this grade. Has to improve but is going well.
8. Zebrinz: Went close last start at Caulfield and then nearly had a month between runs. Back to 1400m and back to Flemington is acceptable. Poor barrier means a tough run but clearly going well enough.
9. Zebulon: Two runs this prep in harder classes of race. Was a very good run first up but poor at the Goodwood. Back to 1400m today but get back run on from horrible barrier.
10. Airalign: Not the worst run first up when didn’t look great in the yard and has a 5 starts for 5 wins 2nd up record. Goes well at this distance and has a quality win over Bassett on the record which is hard to ignore. Respect.
11. Lizard Island: Group 1 placed over 1600m. Got injured in middle of 2016 and this is the return today. Only a fair trial lead in and i’d have to see here. Gelded between runs also. Generally better longer into preps.
12. Loyalty Man: BM-93 winner at Canterbury last prep and Handicap winner at Wodonga. Has run well at this track in the past also. First up today, never won first up before.
13. Radipole: Fiercely over-raced first up and looked plain. Can run better but not one i’d want to be on.
14. Lucky Paddy: First up Weir runner that has never placed first up in the past. Best is seen over slightly further than this.
15. Vital Importance: Mares winner two back but last start ridden upside down and out of it well before the straight off a hot tempo. Will be ridden cold today to finish off.
16. Oak Door: Eye-catcher first up over unsuitable 1200m but was in the right ground so favoured by the result. I’d need to see run again.
17. Majestic Duke: First up (never won in 6 runs first up). Needs further for best and longer into prep. Bar plates off certainly notable.
Comments: Five runners into my Quaddie and the one at odds I believe is huge overs is Airalign. Looked horrible in the yard first up and has a 5/5 2nd up record so expecting big improvement from the yard and ready to peak. Charmed Harmony will certainly get some money at the odds also obviously.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 6, 7, 10, 15
Strategy: Airalign – 1 units Each-Way @ $17/$4.90
Flemington Race 8 – 1000m – L.V. Lachal Handicap
1. Nasdex: Well backed along his journey and found a few too good last start when pulled up with EIPH as well. Previous runs certainly suggest he is a nice type and can continue to measure up in this type of grade. Only run down track as said was a disappointment EIPH so not sure if handles straight.
2. Removal: Two wins in a row heading into this on softer tracks, but did win last prep on Good over 1000m at Yarra Valley. Nice enough type but i’m just not sure if the form lines are strong enough to justify backing in this grade.
3. Dam Ready: Trialled very well at Tatura heading into this prep and has matured significantly in mind and body since last prep where I felt they ran him a few too many times over wrong distances. Back to the 1000m where he is perfectly suited and down the straight where he has run well in harder races in the past, i’m very keen. Trainer is keen as well today.
4. Invincible Al: Very disappointing first up run coming off two trials. May not have handled the track conditions is the excuse. Clearly showed top class ability last prep and was unlucky not to score a 3YO Handicap win due to poor riding. Hard to suggest but will handle track.
5. Overstep: Huge win last start at course over 1200m. Back to 1000m certainly a bit of a concern, but you have to believe he is still peaking and won’t have gone backwards with weeks between runs. Can expect them to run along solidly out front again.
6. Epic Moment: Strong Bendigo win heading into this in easier grade on a dryer surface. Looks a handy colt for the Price yard and he has a good opinion of the horse. Looks ideally suited to down the straight.
7. Lessyd: McEvoy runner with blinkers on again and glue on shoes first time (negative). Well beaten only two runs last prep which was hugely disappointing coming off a very promising first 2YO prep. Hard to suggest.
8. Mistoffelees: CL1 winner before fairly beaten last 3 starts by 3+ lengths including a 2nd on a Heavy 9. Hard to suggest on runs or breeding.
9. Sacred Sham: Very well backed and had a long gap between runs. Has the profile to improve lengths here today off a soft past 50 days of runs. Has the ability to measure up and win.
10. Wilde Gem: Maiden winner. Was on Synthetic which is a concern going to turf and didn’t beat a lot on the day, but did win by a long way. Certainly has ability.
11. Gougers: Geelong maiden winner over 1200m before fairly beaten from out the back last start at Cranbourne. Needs to improve here.
12. Hay Bale: Gelded between runs. Maiden winner on Heavy track. Trial was sound.
13. Oamaru: Maiden winner before a freshen up when over-raced and ran 6th behind some decent types in much easier. Freshened but much harder again.
14. Strategic Spin: Synthetic maiden winner after 5 starts. Good trial win before two back run on a good surface. Could surprise and run well.
15. World Traveller: Maiden winner by lengths before fairly beaten from on speed last start at Cranny. Others fancied here.
16. Casque: Heavy trial winner heading into this. Flashed home last prep over 1100m down the straight twice and could really run well and win here if at best. Big chance.
Comments: Open race in terms of runners, but on form three clear standouts in Dam Ready, Overstep and Nasdex, while the value runner is Casque. The step back to 1000m looks a big negative for me for Overstep and I have to take it on at the price. Nasdex has the potential but is an unknown off EIPH here. Dam Ready trialled like a bullet last start and is finally back to 1000m where suited. Casque won’t look a chance until the final 100m and is the one to watch late at odds. Expect to drift to big odds on the day as well.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 16
Strategy: Dam Ready – 2.5 units @ $5.00. Casque – 0.5 units @ $26
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Comic Court Handicap
2. Rewarding Effort: Get back run on type from a very wide gate. 2nd up this prep off an average run over the unsuitable 1000m first up. Best seen over 1600m so should go well enough. Has to be respected in this grade.
3. Elite Tiger: Disappointed the past two starts in similar grades of races after looking a very nice type the previous 3 runs. I think if he is back to his best he can run a bold race.
4. Roselli Sting: Handicap winner in Adelaide two back. Failed to get close last start off too slow a tempo but was a solid run 5th in the end.
5. Schism: G3 6th last start coming off a BM-82 2nd . Form out of that race is soggy.
6. Nikitas: Eye-catching run last start from out the back at Sandown when ran behind Rileto Especially.
7. Scapa Cove: Nice run 4th last start. Similar grade and a race that looks winnable.
8. Guizot: Drawn wide gut will push on for a position. Very good first up run but show clearly needs to improve on the Cranbourne run.
10. Urban Ruler: 1400m Synthetic win last start at Pakky and has been underway since 2015.
11. Approved Anger: Ballarat winner in fine style. Orevious won at Ballart. Looks to handle straight well.
12. Manapine: Last prep rubbed shoulders with top types and ran well. First up looks well suited but best was over further is only query.
13. Sir Sagamore: Failed to fire first up at Sale as a short priced favourite. Never won 2nd up in the past. Back to a dryer surface helps.
14. Valliano: Knuckled last start at Sandown and ran very well considering behind Widgee Turf. Still improvement to come as well and Oliver takes the rides. Can win.
15. Jacqui’s Joy: Looked a nice type two preps back and finally got a win last prep. Best seen deeper into preps and was poor first up.
16. Miss Universe: Not the worst run on speed last start at Moonee Valley over the weekend but I consider the race much lower than this. Has to improve.
17. Orient Line: Keeps running home well but not getting close or winning. Well suited back in class here but poor barrier once again.
18. Pattern: 1400m maiden class runner. 6th at Flemington and 3yo-BM78 2nd prior to that. Has to be at top of his game.
19. Magwitch: Geelong synthetic couldn’t place! BM-63 winner prior and won but this is more difficult. Can improve.
Comments: Nikitas maps for a dream run here and will be hard for them to hold out. Valliano gets another chance here and has to be respected .
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10
Strategy: Back Nikitas and Valliano
